Thursday CFB

tee*dub

tee*dub

Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
2008 record 7-9 , -4550
___________________________________________

Battling back after a brutal start in week 1.. 2-2 last week but picked up nearly 3 units by hitting my bigger plays.

Thursday, love the play and I'll give my thoughts later

UNC +7, -130, 4 units WIN

add:

UNC ML +200, 2 units WIN

adding a Wisky play now b4 it changes:

Wisky -2, -110.. 2 units (may add later)


Also in case Dr Bob grabs this, I wanted to lock in one play for Saturday:

Michigan -2, 4 units

Also key game this weekend for my BIG (10 units) season win bet on Iowa over 7 wins.. In state rival Iowa State coming to town.. Way too many points in this one. Hope the Hawks grab the W but I will give serious consideration to the 13 points they are generously giving ISU..

Back in a bit
 
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Gl tonight brah....no opinion on the game.

Interested to hear your Michigan thoughts...
 
Already on MI and waiting to get a better # on NC. STL rally fell a little short lastnight, hoping Wellemeyer can get magic #79 tonight:)
 
tee*dub said:
2008 record 7-9 , -4550
___________________________________________

Battling back after a brutal start in week 1.. 2-2 last week but picked up nearly 3 units by hitting my bigger plays.

Thursday, love the play and I'll give my thoughts later

UNC +7, -130, 4 units


Also in case Dr Bob grabs this, I wanted to lock in one play for Saturday:

Michigan -2, 4 units

Also key game this weekend for my BIG (10 units) season win bet on Iowa over 7 wins.. In state rival Iowa State coming to town.. Way too many points in this one. Hope the Hawks grab the W but I will give serious consideration to the 13 points they are generously giving ISU..

Back in a bit
Click to expand...


good luck Tee. No one talks about iowa much and they look like a great ATS team this year to me. Nice interior mismatch up front on paper.

gl with the heels.
 
GL on MICH teedub. :cheers:

Just curious why you went with UNC?
I was leaning strongly towards UNC earlier also but have fully faded to Rutgers.
 
Mags said:
Already on MI and waiting to get a better # on NC. STL rally fell a little short lastnight, hoping Wellemeyer can get magic #79 tonight:)
Click to expand...

Lopez made two errors at third in the 4th inning led to 3 unearned runs. Game over..

If he makes just one of those routine plays Cards win..Oh well.
 
B.A.R. said:
Gl tonight brah....no opinion on the game.

Interested to hear your Michigan thoughts...
Click to expand...

Thanks.

I'll get something out before Saturday BAR on MIch.. Have a good feel for it I think.. Just wanted to lock it in as I suspect Dr. Bob might be on it. And if he is it will jump over 3 in a hurry.. Didn't want to risk it..:cheers:
 
broadwayjoe said:
tee....unc outright?
Click to expand...

I am a much better ML dog player in the NFL, only play them occasionally in CFB.. But ya, I can see UNC winning this game more than half the time but to me there is much more value buying it to 7. A lot of guys are waiting to see if it goes to 6.5 or 7 on its own.. I don't see that happening personally.. GL if you play it:cheers:
 
UNC +6, advantage-dl/ol, 18 returning starters, Butch Davis, ACC competition better, and lack of UNC road wins, public ESPN home team, go with the powder blue, I concur
 
No thoughts on UNC but I HAVE been looking at Michigan. Laying points with that type of offense is so difficult for me, but then again it IS against Notre Dame. BOL this weekend. :shake:
 
Gotta disagree on UNC. Rutgers generally imploded in game 1 during the 1st half, but seemed to move the ball well. I was unimpressed with UNC agaist a 1AA school. I am a BIG believer in ESPN Thursday Night Magic, but only for home DOGS. I have a small stake on RU -5. Good health.

With ya on Michigone. Can't see anything positive from ND last week. Having seen a few ND - Mich games in person in South Bend, I can tell you if Mich jumps to an early lead, you can hear a wisper at ND Stadium. I dont think home field will matter.

GL
 
I cannot put money on a team that only beat McNeese St by five. I thought Rutgers started well versus Fresno, who I believe to be a good team, but Fresno pulled away in 2H.

I am looking at Michigan too. GL tee
 
notes on Rutgers/UNC

I am always looking for an edge in the trenches and think this one sets up with a decided edge to UNC.

  • First, lets address the McNeese state game which is the main reason UNC is getting the premium +points IMO. Butch is a veteran guy and pretty much treated this like a preseason game, rolling out the vanilla offensive playbook and giving Rutgers pretty much zero information on what they might see tonight. Now, make no mistake, UNC got a bit of a scare as the game and flow was interupted by the weather and was much closer than Butch would have preferred. Keep in mind Mcneese has some studs and played very well in that game.. In short I prefer the result in the McNeese game for two reasons--1) it gave me a better line and 2) Butch had his players attn all week in practice... Conversely, if UNC rolled Mcneese, which they could have, this would have been a much less attractive game for me..
  • As far as Rutgers goes, I played Fresno and watched the game very closely.. First half was a battle and it is true that Rutgers had many opportunities but the second half showed one of two things or possibly both. 1) Rutgers got wore down in the trenches, 2) Fresno made much better adjustments at HT.. I think both but I am particularly interested in 1).
  • UNC is BIG and physical on both sides of the ball returning a bunch of guys who appear to have put on 10-15 pounds in the off season across the board. Both lines on the UNC side average over 300+ pounds while Rutgers is much smaller.. I am not into the "weigh in" approach but when the speed, athletism and experince are also on my side I consider it a key point.
  • Rutgers averaged only 3.1 yards rushing vs a much smaller Fresno defense.. Until Rutgers shows me they can move the ball on the ground against a physical defense, I will be looking to fade them.
  • Look for Rutgers to blitz a ton tonight and think Butch will be expecting it. As long as Yates is throwing to the right colored jersey, he should have some big play opps with WRs Nicks and Tate seeing alot of one on one coverage in the deep part of the zone.
  • Fresno State avg 5.1 per carry vs Rutgers. With the down field threat UNC posseses if they can rush at this clip, and think they can with the big line advantage, it could be a long night for Rutgers. UNC is bigger (25lb per man) and more athletic than Fresno's.
  • UNC returns 18 starters . Last season, the Heels won only four games, but had several close losses against quality foes (by three at East Carolina, two vs. Virginia, seven at Virginia Tech, six vs. South Carolina, four at NC St., and two at Georgia Tech).
  • Steele has UNC rated as the second most improved team in the country for 2008 and I agree. Lot of close losses LY that builds character and hunger for this year.
Forget the MCneese game- its like capping a preseason game and you know where I stand on that subject. Focus on Butch Davis having two weeks to prepare:smiley_acbe:


Also:
We will learn more of what to expect in the Wisky vs Fresno game after this one IMO, so I will be paying close attention for purposes of capping that game as well..
 
Blue_Chip said:
I cannot put money on a team that only beat McNeese St by five. I thought Rutgers started well versus Fresno, who I believe to be a good team, but Fresno pulled away in 2H.

I am looking at Michigan too. GL tee
Click to expand...

Bro, what up..

Check a little bit on Mcneese state.. Realize they are in the subdivsion but we are finding the elite teams in the subdivision have some outstanding athles and future NFL players.. Mcneese returned most from a 2007 team that went undefeated (11-0) in the regular season.

PLus if UNC rolled McNeese we might be looking at a line in the +3 range.. Consider the McNeese game to be an ATS advantage not a detriment.. Just the way I look at it..

GL

By the way we'll find out Saturday if Fresno is a good team.. Wish I could see that game first..:popcorn:
 
2008
OUTLOOK
McNeese State
THE 2008 SEASON [FONT=Times,Times]- McNeese State has 49 lettermen returning from the 2007 team that won the school’s second straight Southand Conference title and went undefeated in the regular season (11-0). [/FONT][FONT=Times,Times]In that group of returneese are seven starters back on offense, five [/FONT][FONT=Times,Times]on defnese and one specialist. Also, Steven Whitehead, the SLC Player of the Year in 2006, is back after being sidelined last season with a leg injury.
[/FONT]COACH [FONT=Times,Times]- Matt Viator is now in his third season as the Cowboy head coach....he has a 17-3 overall record ...he is 17-1 in regular season play and 12-1 in conference play...he has been named the Southland Conference coach of the year for the past two seasons
[/FONT]COWBOYS UNDEFEATED SEASON [FONT=Times,Times]- The 2007 Cowboy [/FONT][FONT=Times,Times]team became only the fourth squad in McNeese history to finish [/FONT][FONT=Times,Times]the regular season undefeated and untied....the 1963 team of Les DeVall went 8-0, the 1979 squad of Ernie Duplechin was 11-0 and the 1995 team of Bobby Keasler went 11-0 in the regular season....the 1963 team did not appear in a post season bowl game or playoff...the 1979 team lost to Syracuse in the Independence Bowl and [/FONT][FONT=Times,Times]the 1995 squad went 13-1, losing to Marshall in the semifinals of [/FONT][FONT=Times,Times]the FCS playoffs....after going undefeated in the regular season, [/FONT][FONT=Times,Times]the 2007 squad bowed to Eastern Washington 44-15 in the first [/FONT][FONT=Times,Times]round of the FCS playoffs
[/FONT]TEAM LEADERS RETURNING [FONT=Times,Times]- Quarterback Derrick Fourrux was the team leader in total offense (217 yards per game) and in passing (125 of 218 for 2,054 yards and 16 tds) a year ago. Tailback Elrick Jones led in kickoff returns with a 25.0 average, place kicker/punter Blake Bercegeay led in scoring (78 points; 8 of [/FONT][FONT=Times,Times]13 field goals and 564 of 56 PATs) and in punting (39.9 avg) and [/FONT][FONT=Times,Times]linebacker Allen Nelson was tops in tackles (102).
[/FONT]KEY LOSSES: [FONT=Times,Times]at the top is two time all-American and 2007 SLC Player of the Year Bryan Smith (DE); also gone are starters Kris Bush (tailback), Carlese Franklin (WR) and Jimbo Hill (OG) on offense and starters Bryant Mason (DE), Trey Bennett (LB), Jonathan Walker (CB), Marcus Brown (CB) and Kody Knox (FS) on defense)
[/FONT]RETURNING: [FONT=Times,Times]is all-American wide receiver/kick returner Steven Whitehead....he was sidelined last year for the remainder of the season after the Louisiana-Lafayette game because of a knee injury...he will return to his starting role with the Cowboys....he’s fourth all-time in McNeese history in kickoff returns, is eighth in punt returns and ranks among the top 15 in pass receptions ...he went through spring drills
[/FONT][FONT=Times,Times][FONT=Times,Times]Quarterback Derrick Fourroux returns to lead the Cowboys. He was a second team all-conference selection a year ago.
[/FONT][/FONT]
 
NC was up 14-0 then the thunderstorm hit, so i believe NC got a lil cocky, and thats how Mcneese dominated them
 
rest of leans/possible plays this week:

UCLA
Wisconsin
Iowa State
Bowling Green

still debating:

Ball St
Hawaii (waiting on HG)
Buff
 
I think I overvalue coaching in my style of capping, so I do like Butch Davis here. I just don't know if I can shake that McNeese game.
 
Blue_Chip said:
I think I overvalue coaching in my style of capping, so I do like Butch Davis here. I just don't know if I can shake that McNeese game.
Click to expand...

Both teams have playmakers at WR. Both teams have decent QBs. Pretty even matchup until you look in the trenches PLUS you can get a TD of wiggle room..:smiley_acbe:

If you capped it and like Rutgers play it..But don't let McNeese alone affect your wager because the line has already adjusted for that IMO and I think overadjusted because of the info I listed above on Mcneese..

Do you think Rutgers is capbale of extending a lead against UNC given the fact that this same UNC team (with more experience) stayed within a 7 point cushion ON the ROAD against East Carolina, VA tech, NC St and Ga. Tech all of which were better than the current Rutgers team?

No disrespect meant bro just trying to figure out where all this Rutgers love is based?:cheers:
 
Blue_Chip said:
Don't you dare
Click to expand...

explain.. You like fresno? Why?

On Wisky/fresno make your final decision after watching the game tonight IMO.. I.E. if Rutgers gets manhandled in the trenches that should make you rethink a Fresno bet.. If on the otherhand Rutgers get after it and controls the LOS one might think Fresno could also do the same to Wisky who has a physical O-line like UNC.

My opinion-- I think Wisky has a chance to roll Fresno... I loved Fresno against Rutgers because I though Rutgers was soft. Looking for further confirmation of that tonight and if I get it that discounts Fresno's performance somewhat and gives me more conviction with my wisky play.

If Rutgers on the otherhand holds their own it makes me think Fresno is as good as they looked.. In my capping I am always looking for false victories.. That is a victory that looked good at the time but looking back might not have been that big of deal.. Got that angle working in my jumbled mind right now..:cheers:
 
Tee-

I hate to see you leaning UCLA...could you give some reasoning behind that one when you get a minute? Only bets I have locked in for Saturday are BYU and Zona. Much rather be on the same side as you. Won't change the play either way, but would like to hear what you think about that matchup. Good luck this weekend.
Still pondering that UM play; ND is so bad.
 
tee*dub said:
2008 record 7-9 , -4550
___________________________________________

Battling back after a brutal start in week 1.. 2-2 last week but picked up nearly 3 units by hitting my bigger plays.

Thursday, love the play and I'll give my thoughts later

UNC +7, -130, 4 units (notes/writeup on slide #16 below)

Also in case Dr Bob grabs this, I wanted to lock in one play for Saturday:

Michigan -2, 4 units



Back in a bit
Click to expand...

oh yeah, these are good...:tiphat:
 
ghostnmyhead has a good point. UNC was dominating the game, last week, until the delay. The crowd was into it and the players were feeding off of it.

The stands were almost empty, after play resumed. I don't know if the players underestimated McNeese, or if they couldn't find motivation without the crowd. But, they gave up some big plays and long drives. UNC woke up, after they lost the lead. Then, their defense stepped up and started dominating again.

McNeese is not as bad a team as many think. I was thinking the same, until someone pointed out that they were a couple of games from making it to the championship game and were knocked out by Appalachian. They are currently ranked 9th, in the FCS coaches poll.

I don't post much. But, I like to read everyone's opinions. Thanks, for the info, teedub.
 
Nice writeup tee. I believe UNC's secondary is pretty darn good too. I think Rutgers will have their hands full tonight.
 
wiseplayer said:
Nice writeup tee. I believe UNC's secondary is pretty darn good too. I think Rutgers will have their hands full tonight.
Click to expand...

Thanks Wise, they are a little banged up in the secondary-- at least thats the report so that was an initial concern.. Didn't see anything else so we'll see..

Promise me if I am wrong, you won't come busting in here to let me know about it or you'll give my boy RambleON a heart attack;)

Ramble is good people and one of the best cappers around here IMO-- just a little excitable..:36_11_6:
 
Sorry about that tee. I didn't realize the comment was going to create problems. You guys had a good debate going and I just was saying he made a good call. Unfortunately I had the Raiders too. GL today!
 
Tee --

Watch your comments or I am going to pull a Nancy Kerigan on that ass. :mad:

Just kidding. Just wanted you to know I broke my rule and took UNC for action tonight. 17-6 at half and looking good - nice work (so far). You're right, I am excitable. But I'd rather be loyal than heartless. :shake:
 
RambleOn said:
Tee --

Watch your comments or I am going to pull a Nancy Kerigan on that ass. :mad:

Just kidding. Just wanted you to know I broke my rule and took UNC for action tonight. 17-6 at half and looking good - nice work (so far). You're right, I am excitable. But I'd rather be loyal than heartless. :shake:
Click to expand...

I'll always have your back bro..:cheers:

Lets get this UNC shit done.. Did you play the ATS or ML?
 
Ended up playing ATS. Playing with a local right now that doesn't offer Moneylines. I'm working for an oil company right now and have been waiting for my first paycheck for 6 friggin weeks. As soon as I get it (Monday), I'll be able to reload my Bookmaker account and start up there.
 
decided no 2H play but definately considered and lean the under 24.5..

Like my ats and ML play and hopefully can enjoy the crown XR I just set up:smiley_acbe:
 
tee*dub said:
Also:
We will learn more of what to expect in the Wisky vs Fresno game after this one IMO, so I will be paying close attention for purposes of capping that game as well..
Click to expand...

wisky play vs Fresno looking better.. Fresno win at Rutgers not looking so special now
:smiley_acbe:
 
MarloStanfield04<AIM:timestamp style="display: inline; font-size: 11px;"> (6:14:29 PM)</AIM:timestamp>: you playing the football game tonight?
Navy33<AIM:timestamp style="display: inline; font-size: 11px;"> (6:14:48 PM)</AIM:timestamp>: nah, that side is a coinflip, i dont like coinflips, lol
Navy33<AIM:timestamp style="display: inline; font-size: 11px;"> (6:14:51 PM)</AIM:timestamp>: who u like tho
MarloStanfield04<AIM:timestamp style="display: inline; font-size: 11px;"> (6:15:04 PM)</AIM:timestamp>: just tailing Tee small, guy is a machine
Navy33<AIM:timestamp style="display: inline; font-size: 11px;"> (6:15:36 PM)</AIM:timestamp>: who he got
MarloStanfield04<AIM:timestamp style="display: inline; font-size: 11px;"> (6:15:41 PM)</AIM:timestamp>: NC


:13_1_102v:
 
The value of Fresno's win at Rutgers has diminished, but why do you like Wisco? They are untested and travel to a venue that will be pumped to show they are BCS worthy.
 
Blue_Chip said:
The value of Fresno's win at Rutgers has diminished, but why do you like Wisco? They are untested and travel to a venue that will be pumped to show they are BCS worthy.
Click to expand...

I had Fresno v. Rutgers (and profitted nicely) but as I watched that game I really thought they were getting all the breaks and I actually thought Rutgers was better up front.. Watched it again and felt even more sure.. I mentioned it before the game tonight because I suspected UNC would dominate Rutgers, which they have, so I basically have lost alot of cred for Fresno. They face a Wisky team that is much more physical than Rutgers and I think the difference will be alarming.. I'll write it more up later and its only a 2 unit play at this point and probably won't grow..
 
any thoughts about Penn State -28 vs. Cuse. I don't see Cuse scoring and PSU can run it every down and cover IMO if they show up.

--I like your picks I'm gonna stay away from Bruins and Hawaii --- too many good cappers on the other side. Hawaii great defense stagnant O it'll be hovering around that spread 50/50 either way.
 
O-State said:
any thoughts about Penn State -28 vs. Cuse. I don't see Cuse scoring and PSU can run it every down and cover IMO if they show up.
Click to expand...

I generally eliminate all chalk over 7 or so from my list of possible plays.. Just not very good at heavy chalk, so no opinion.. GL tho bro.. Agree Cuse sucks.:shake:
 
Marlo Stanfield said:
MarloStanfield04<?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = AIM /><AIM:timestamp style="DISPLAY: inline; FONT-SIZE: 11px"> (6:14:29 PM)</AIM:timestamp>: you playing the football game tonight?
Navy33<AIM:timestamp style="DISPLAY: inline; FONT-SIZE: 11px"> (6:14:48 PM)</AIM:timestamp>: nah, that side is a coinflip, i dont like coinflips, lol
Navy33<AIM:timestamp style="DISPLAY: inline; FONT-SIZE: 11px"> (6:14:51 PM)</AIM:timestamp>: who u like tho
MarloStanfield04<AIM:timestamp style="DISPLAY: inline; FONT-SIZE: 11px"> (6:15:04 PM)</AIM:timestamp>: just tailing Tee small, guy is a machine
Navy33<AIM:timestamp style="DISPLAY: inline; FONT-SIZE: 11px"> (6:15:36 PM)</AIM:timestamp>: who he got
MarloStanfield04<AIM:timestamp style="DISPLAY: inline; FONT-SIZE: 11px"> (6:15:41 PM)</AIM:timestamp>: NC


:13_1_102v:
Click to expand...

:cheers::shake:
 
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