Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
Fire away folks
Thursday CFB Discussion Thread (A Rare Good Game)
- Thread starter Gorgolon Lives
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Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
This is Auburn’s first road game. Coach Gus Malzahn admits that it is a concern. “That’s one of the tougher places to play in college football,” he said. “It’s a measuring stick to go on the road against a top-20 team, at their place in a hostile environment. It will be a huge test. We’ll have to play well to win.”
Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/sports/college/big-12/kansas-state/article2140860.html#storylink=cpy
Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/sports/college/big-12/kansas-state/article2140860.html#storylink=cpy
Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
I expect Auburn to be able to run, as always. However, K ST will score. I'm not sure how Auburn will stop WR Lockett.
Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
Auburn has not won a non-conference game on the road since beating Virginia (28-17) in 1997.
Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
Jermaine Whitehead, the third-year starting safety, who leads the team with two interceptions, was suspended for violating team rules and didn't make the trip to Manhattan.
Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
“This will likely be our greatest attended game ever,” K-State athletic director John Currie said last week. “We actually have not sold standing room-only tickets, because we know our student section will be as full as it has ever been that night.”
Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/sports/college/big-12/kansas-state/article2116669.html#storylink=cpy
Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/sports/college/big-12/kansas-state/article2116669.html#storylink=cpy
Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
Those and my leans. Really hoping K State can get to 10 by game time. There's an outside possibility. We may see the public jump on the -9 once they get off work this evening.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
And a ranked one since 1984.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Looks to be a clean track tonight....mid 60s, light wind, 20% chance of rain.
Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
Bill Snyder overrated? Just need a cover, not a win. However:
Kansas State has counted 15 consecutive sellouts, including the showdown with Auburn this week. The Wildcats are 8-11 against ranked teams since Snyder returned as coach in 2009, including a 1-5 record against top 10 teams.
Kansas State has counted 15 consecutive sellouts, including the showdown with Auburn this week. The Wildcats are 8-11 against ranked teams since Snyder returned as coach in 2009, including a 1-5 record against top 10 teams.
captjohn67
Pretty much a regular
Whitehead was suspended for talking shit to a coach (local news ) I will be looking for a prop on Lockett. Think Snyder is 4-27 in his career against top 10 teams (not that i care about that stat to be honest with you) No play for me unless a halftime surfaces that is attractive. GLTA.
Jayhawk Nation
Voice of Reason
The back up is just as good and was the starter until injury last year.
i am taking first quarter over 14. Kstate is going to come out beast mode on offense, and they can't stop auburn who will be looking to take the crowd out of it early.
gsro
Give me the NHL, or give me death
Lockett prop has my interest as well :shake:
captjohn67
Pretty much a regular
i wouldn't be shocked if neither team stops the other (not exactly a bold prediction... i know ). I have been on record for some time as not being an Ellis Johnson fan at all.
GSRO, i don;t see anything up at any of my outlets, but for some reason my gut is telling me they'll make it a respectful number but juice the hell out of it. Guess we'll see shorlty.
Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
Not sure this is a public dog. I'm seeing consensuses on Auburn. It looks like smarter $$$ is keep the line at bay, but most of the bets are coming in on Auburn.
gsro
Give me the NHL, or give me death
ahh okay - i haven't seen the actual b etting %;s but i've been in around a few forums and every post I see has KSTATE regardless will be a great game
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I am still confused by this line. It has been well publicized recently that AU is on an impressive ATS streak. This game could be lined in double digits and the bets would still come pouring on AU IMO. Almost like the books are trying to set this up as a bloodbath. Or maybe I'm reading too much into this. But would this line really be AU -11 on a neutral and -14 at AU?
Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
Money coming in on K St.
It's down to 7.5
It's down to 7.5
NYGiants25
NY Giants fan, anyone?
FROM INSIDER: TRAVIS HANEY : HOW KANSAS STATE CAN UPSET AUBURN ...
The Auburn Tigers will be the most talented team on the field Thursday night in Manhattan, Kansas. There aren’t many people debating that -- not lucid ones, anyway.
The Kansas State Wildcats can beat Auburn, though. And here’s how coaches think it will play out.
Bill Snyder will show his, uh, youth
Snyder is known in the community as a pretty conservative coach. OK, really conservative. When literally every other Big 12 team has embraced the no-huddle -- even Gary Patterson and TCU! -- Snyder has maintained being Snyder.
“And Snyder’s just going to keep doing his thing …” Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury told me this summer.
Until tonight.
Don’t look for the Wildcats to get 90 snaps or anything (they ran 81 plays against Stephen F. Austin, 70 against Iowa State), but they also won’t be stuck in I-formation running iso and power all night.
“He’s going to take some chances,” a Big 12 coach told me. “Bill’s going to spread it out. He thinks you can go at these corners. I can’t wait to see it because it’s not like him. That’s exciting to me.”
This becomes even more of a factor now that Auburn senior safety Jermaine Whitehead will not play tonight because of a verbal altercation with a coach. He is the Tigers' most experienced defensive back (team-high 122 career snaps) and leads them with two INTs, including one he returned for a score against Arkansas.
Tyler Lockett will be key
As my Insider colleague KC Joyner noted earlier this week, the senior all-conference receiver knows the offense, and he knows it well enough to be used in different ways. He’s the matchup problem that K-State wants to exploit not just for Auburn’s corners, but its safeties and linebackers as well.
"Normally he just lines up [in the slot] and that’s where he is. That’s Snyder. 'If you're a Y, then you're a Y.'" a coach told me this week. "He's going to move him around. He'll line up everywhere."
Lockett had six catches for 136 yards and a score in the win at Iowa State. He’s capable of being a Y and an X factor.
The QB run game will be make-or-break
The threat of Jake Waters' legs on zone-read action can lead to explosive plays through the air.
Second-year QB Jake Waters has to sell the threat of the run in a zone-read offense. He did well against Iowa State, averaging 6.9 yards per carry and scoring twice.
But Auburn will be stingier up front. If the Tigers don’t respect him, they'll be able to defend other options. If Waters gets loose a few times, he could open up other things.
I know when I visited Auburn DC Ellis Johnson in August, he was already fretting K-State's using that throw-out-of-the-zone-read that the Seattle Seahawks credited to Auburn and Gus Malzahn. It has been something Snyder has done longer, in truth.
Eye discipline is something defensive coaches talk about a lot, and that sort of offense messes with it. It’s the opposite of assignment football; it confuses players in the moment.
H-back Glenn Gronkowski 'will score a touchdown'
A coach said to watch for a particular play in which Gronkowski, lined up as an offset fullback, looks as if he’s blocking for Waters, and then he takes off down the seam. (Lockett can streak down the sideline or run a curl off it, as well.)
The safety, unsure whether to cover the H-back or come up to help versus the run, lets Gronkowski go and, bam, K-State has a wide-open target and maybe six points.
"Even if you tell your guys to watch for it, that [stuff] is hard to stop," the coach said. "They'll set it up a few times by letting the quarterback run and then hit him. I guarantee they score on it."
Oh, right. The K-State defense …
The previous points have all been about the Wildcats' offense. Here’s what you should take from that: For K-State to pull the upset, it's going to have to score and keep scoring. The Vegas total, which has since gone down, started at 70.
Snyder is basically conceding that his defense will have a hard time matching up with Auburn, particularly with WR Duke Williams' field-stretching appearance. But he thinks he can score with them, step for step. Still, Kansas State also has been able to stop the zone-read the past two seasons, allowing 3.7 yards per rush on such plays, which ranks second among Big 12 defenses behind TCU.
The number to watch Thursday night is 200. Kansas State is 21-2 when it allows fewer than 200 rushing yards in the past three seasons and 0-5 when it does not.
Get a turnover. Keep scoring. Play the home-crowd-on-a-Thursday-night card. That's the formula.
Auburn is the road team
Auburn beat four ranked teams in its 2013 run, with Georgia, Alabama and Missouri -- all at the end -- standing out as the most memorable. Those were either at home or on a neutral field. In fact, the Tigers have not won a nonconference road game since beating Virginia in 1997. They have not beaten a ranked team on the road since Florida State in 1984.
Last season Texas A&M was Auburn's biggest road win, but the team was well under the radar at that point. The din at Kyle Field for that game wasn't what it was, say, for Alabama earlier in the season. Or what it will be Thursday night at Kansas State.
"I'm wondering about Auburn away from home," one coach told me. "They haven't been somewhere like this. I think Auburn should win, but it being there … I’m curious."
The Auburn Tigers will be the most talented team on the field Thursday night in Manhattan, Kansas. There aren’t many people debating that -- not lucid ones, anyway.
The Kansas State Wildcats can beat Auburn, though. And here’s how coaches think it will play out.
Bill Snyder will show his, uh, youth
Snyder is known in the community as a pretty conservative coach. OK, really conservative. When literally every other Big 12 team has embraced the no-huddle -- even Gary Patterson and TCU! -- Snyder has maintained being Snyder.
“And Snyder’s just going to keep doing his thing …” Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury told me this summer.
Until tonight.
Don’t look for the Wildcats to get 90 snaps or anything (they ran 81 plays against Stephen F. Austin, 70 against Iowa State), but they also won’t be stuck in I-formation running iso and power all night.
“He’s going to take some chances,” a Big 12 coach told me. “Bill’s going to spread it out. He thinks you can go at these corners. I can’t wait to see it because it’s not like him. That’s exciting to me.”
This becomes even more of a factor now that Auburn senior safety Jermaine Whitehead will not play tonight because of a verbal altercation with a coach. He is the Tigers' most experienced defensive back (team-high 122 career snaps) and leads them with two INTs, including one he returned for a score against Arkansas.
Tyler Lockett will be key
As my Insider colleague KC Joyner noted earlier this week, the senior all-conference receiver knows the offense, and he knows it well enough to be used in different ways. He’s the matchup problem that K-State wants to exploit not just for Auburn’s corners, but its safeties and linebackers as well.
"Normally he just lines up [in the slot] and that’s where he is. That’s Snyder. 'If you're a Y, then you're a Y.'" a coach told me this week. "He's going to move him around. He'll line up everywhere."
Lockett had six catches for 136 yards and a score in the win at Iowa State. He’s capable of being a Y and an X factor.
The QB run game will be make-or-break
The threat of Jake Waters' legs on zone-read action can lead to explosive plays through the air.
Second-year QB Jake Waters has to sell the threat of the run in a zone-read offense. He did well against Iowa State, averaging 6.9 yards per carry and scoring twice.
But Auburn will be stingier up front. If the Tigers don’t respect him, they'll be able to defend other options. If Waters gets loose a few times, he could open up other things.
I know when I visited Auburn DC Ellis Johnson in August, he was already fretting K-State's using that throw-out-of-the-zone-read that the Seattle Seahawks credited to Auburn and Gus Malzahn. It has been something Snyder has done longer, in truth.
Eye discipline is something defensive coaches talk about a lot, and that sort of offense messes with it. It’s the opposite of assignment football; it confuses players in the moment.
H-back Glenn Gronkowski 'will score a touchdown'
A coach said to watch for a particular play in which Gronkowski, lined up as an offset fullback, looks as if he’s blocking for Waters, and then he takes off down the seam. (Lockett can streak down the sideline or run a curl off it, as well.)
The safety, unsure whether to cover the H-back or come up to help versus the run, lets Gronkowski go and, bam, K-State has a wide-open target and maybe six points.
"Even if you tell your guys to watch for it, that [stuff] is hard to stop," the coach said. "They'll set it up a few times by letting the quarterback run and then hit him. I guarantee they score on it."
Oh, right. The K-State defense …
The previous points have all been about the Wildcats' offense. Here’s what you should take from that: For K-State to pull the upset, it's going to have to score and keep scoring. The Vegas total, which has since gone down, started at 70.
Snyder is basically conceding that his defense will have a hard time matching up with Auburn, particularly with WR Duke Williams' field-stretching appearance. But he thinks he can score with them, step for step. Still, Kansas State also has been able to stop the zone-read the past two seasons, allowing 3.7 yards per rush on such plays, which ranks second among Big 12 defenses behind TCU.
The number to watch Thursday night is 200. Kansas State is 21-2 when it allows fewer than 200 rushing yards in the past three seasons and 0-5 when it does not.
Get a turnover. Keep scoring. Play the home-crowd-on-a-Thursday-night card. That's the formula.
Auburn is the road team
Auburn beat four ranked teams in its 2013 run, with Georgia, Alabama and Missouri -- all at the end -- standing out as the most memorable. Those were either at home or on a neutral field. In fact, the Tigers have not won a nonconference road game since beating Virginia in 1997. They have not beaten a ranked team on the road since Florida State in 1984.
Last season Texas A&M was Auburn's biggest road win, but the team was well under the radar at that point. The din at Kyle Field for that game wasn't what it was, say, for Alabama earlier in the season. Or what it will be Thursday night at Kansas State.
"I'm wondering about Auburn away from home," one coach told me. "They haven't been somewhere like this. I think Auburn should win, but it being there … I’m curious."
Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
I usually avoid strange line movement games, and this may be one of them.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Watching the Iowa State game, the one thing that stood out to me about K-State's defense was that they didn't tackle particularly well and weren't overly disciplined. Those have obviously been two givens under Snyder's watch, and it was sorta eye-opening. As in the past, they're not overly talented on that side of the ball. But when you put all these factors together, against an offense like that, it can be a death knell.
D
dudleysdad
Guest
Haven't seen k st at all this year. Do they have athletes on D to stop auburn a few times? I understand the emotion and fire k st will have. It that usually only lasts a half at most.
I want to play the dog tonight but scared of that auburn O.
I want to play the dog tonight but scared of that auburn O.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
K State's only chance to win IMO is for AU to turn the ball over and K State to score on almost every possession, which is possible because AU's defense is not great. They have some athletes, but overall, it is a defense that can be scored on. Secondary is thin, and not that great to begin with, and I'm unimpressed with their LBs. DL is pretty strong, especially up the middle. They don't have a Dee Ford type this year, but those DTs can still get after the QB. At some point, you have to think that the ball won't bounce AU's way, but that is impossible to cap. Like I said, I'm on KSt 1H, and that's about all I feel comfortable with. Depending on the game, I may take AU 2H
Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
Seeing 7's out there now on this game.
twins fan23
Pretty much a regular
Im on Auburn -7.5 big. This line is looking very fishy now. Not going to look too far into it personally. Go AU
Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
I followed the money on the UNDER 66 for 2u, and will hedge if necessary.
Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
Can anyone confirm this?
K St is 64-4 UNDER vs a non conf opp at Bill Snyder Family Stadium?
K St is 64-4 UNDER vs a non conf opp at Bill Snyder Family Stadium?
Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
That's because the probably haven't played a non-conference road game since 1997.
captjohn67
Pretty much a regular
six since 1997, with a 1-5 straight up record in those games fwiw
Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
Bill Snyder covers 59.4% over all, 62.9% at home and 59.0% as a dog.
The big money bets are on KSU from something I saw earlier...
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Yeah. Same happened last year with AU against Ark, UT, UGA, and Mizzou. AU won and covered them all. Not sure why, but books have been slow to adjust to AU. I get it, but they are supposed to be smarter than the rest of us
Very true.
I'd be aboard in some shape or form but K St Baylor last year keeps coming into my head. I have a mental block. Ask Hunt, lol(and you can add in KC-DEN in pros last week too...).
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
The thing with AU is, the bet against them can be the right bet for 3/4 of the game. Then the dam bursts against that offense and they cover. Or they get some voodoo magic and pull a rabbit out of the hat, but that's usually reserved for home games
Jayhawk Nation
Voice of Reason
I can't confirm it, but remember this is unusual for Kstate, they usually only play crap teams in non-con so those stats would be skewed with a lot of 50-0 type games
D
dilaudid8
Guest
hunt your a smart guy
D
dilaudid8
Guest
gorgolon bol have a great week
