Thursday Bases w/writeups......

[YesSir]

Whats up fellas..found a couple new locals for the second half..

MLB 2007

47-27-3 (+58.8 UNITS)

***all plays are based on 4 units unless other wise noted***

​

OK this has been popular question..."Why do you post this at the top of your thread? Why don't you make your units 1 instead of 4? There are a few reasons why I do this: 1) For what I am betting, it is easier for me to keep track of and translate to cash- for my records. 2) 4 units is not the only ammount that I play on the game. 4 units is probably about the average I play on a game. I do not want to mess with decimals into the hundreths so I just usually play an even number ammount of units. 3) I post it, so when you look at my record with units, you realize that I usually play 4 units on each play. Therefore my Units could move a lot in one night 4) Right now I am only playing a few games a day. As the season wears on, I will play more games...sometimes I will forget to put units so I will always have that as backup- for those not familiar with my plays.

​

Games that I post the night before, usually will use stats prior to that night's games. I do take into effect(in my thougth process) what transpired that night.​

On to Thursday:​

Baltimore Orioles -120​

It is amazing what kind of 180 Jeremey Guthrie has done. He was a pretty coveted prospect in a loaded Indians farm system. He, like Brandon Phillups was given limited PT in the bigs and they both did miserable. Guthrie got 37 innings in the bigs from 04-06 They both are essentially giveaways and are both shining now. I watched Guthrie pitch at AKron many times.​

ANyways, I do not think this is a fluke season, and expect him to be around for awhile. He comes into this game with a beautiful 2.74 ERA and .912 WHIP! In his 13 starts he has a .216 ERA and a WHIP around .807. He has been brilliant at home also (.266 ERA .951 WHIP).​

Opposing Guthrie will be a pitcher that has had a nice year also, Jon Garland. His 3.92 ERA is good but it dips to 3.00 on the road- which is better lol....​

Both pitcher have faded a little bit of late. Guthrie's ERA in his L 3 is 3.98 but his WHIP is still well below 1. Garland on the other hand has seen his ERA skyrocket to 6.23 and his WHIP above 1.6! of course these are scued by the 11 ERs he gave up in his last outting.​

Chicago's bullpen has been absolutely putrid this season 5.92 ERA and WHIP 1.7+! Baltimore's pen by no means has been the Yanks of the late 90s but they have been better, especially at home (4.98 ERA 4.37 at home).​

Niether team has exactly crushed the ball this year. It is funny to see 2, usually solid offenses, struggle to get to 4!​

TRENDS​

Teams are hitting .306 against the Sox in their last 7 and are scoring 7+ runs per​

Teams are hittin .242 against O's pitching at BAL​

CWS have been swinging that bat better as of late 6.4 runs per in their L7​

In conclusion, I think that Chicago will try to make one last push. I believe they will have a good second half(unless they unload). I just like Guthrie in this match up...​

might have a couple more....GL:cheers:​

 

[YesSir]

Boston/Toronto UNDER 9.5

This line opened at 9 and has jumped to 9.5. I am all over this one!

Roy Holladay, who has scuffled this year, looks to turn around his season. His WHIP and innings per has been good (1.266 6.8) but his ERA has soared from season's past (4.46). On the road it has risen and also has not been good of late. His control (only 19BBs) and record are both on point (10-3 team 12-4 in his starts). As a true team player he rushed back from emergency surgery. I think this all star break gave him pleanty of time to rest.

Tim Wakefield gets the rock for the "best team in the bigs". Wakefield has put up Wakefield like numbers (4.39 ERA 6+innings per). His ERA rises to 5.01 at home.

Both teams have, statistically, 2 very good pens. Boston's rep a 2.82 ERA (3.52 @ home) while Toronto has a 3.55 ERA (3.87 on the road). Both teams have good WHIPs too.

Both teams can usually mash right? Toronto gets 4.8 runs per (5 on the road and 4.4 against righties). Boston rakes no matter what usually (5 runs per, 5.7 .293 BA at home, and 5.0 against righties)....

TRENDS

IN 20.3 innings against BOSTON this season Halladay has given up 12 runs... 7 of those were in one outting

In 20 innings against TOR Wakefield has given up 4 ER....0 3 1

Toronto is giving up 4.6 runs per game as a staff and opponents are hitting .251

Toronto is hitting .255 on the road this season

Boston is only giving up 4.0 runs per game and teams are hitting .246

I use simple logic when I bet UNDERS in these situations. Both pitchers are going to have to be shaky for this total to go over. Yes it is possible that one guy can give up 8 runs and the other 3....I understand that, I just do not see that happening here. I think both pitchers go deep into the ball game and this game does not sniff 8.....


GL guys:cheers:

 

[brewer]

bears avatars unite!

 

[ClevelandsBest]

The scary thing about the Boston under is that Wake and Doc have faced each lineup 3x already this year. I tend to think that gives the hitters the advantage especially against a funky pitch like the knuckleball. Also Halladay has not been very good against the red sox this year. OTOH Wake has been dominant against the Jays. It is not silly to expect Halladay to improve on his subpar efforts against the Red sox this year. Good luck to you

 

[YesSir]

Brewer- Been a Bears fan since I was little...no one knows how I started...I go to at least one game a year....

ClevelandsBest- Thanks for the post and GL to you....I usually tend to agree with your statement but there are some things that are unique about this game. Both team's pens are completely rested- both being good pens. If Wakefield gets in trouble, BOS will quickly go to the pen since everyone is available. Same goes for Toronto.

As far as the knuckle, I do not think it matters if you see it everyday- if it is on you have no chance. It is such a unique pitch that if it is floating right, runs will be a premium.

Halladay has not had subpar efforts against Boston either. He had one outting where he gave up 7 runs in 5 innings. If I am not mistaken, wasn't there a 3 run bomb in that game? In his other 2 starts he has gone 8 innings giving up 3 runs and 7.3 giving up 2 runs.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I'd like your under better if the stats I see didnt read...

Wakefield is O/U 4-4 at home, but O/U 1-8 on the road

Halladay is O/U 6-0-1 on the road, but O/U 4-5 at home

Wakefield unders = the road, Halladay unders = at home. Neither fits this game's scenario, but BOL

 

[hile75]

gl tonite yessir

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

BOL, Yessir. Liked the writeups.

 

[Satyr]

Good luck YesSir, leaning Orioles as well. :shake:

 

[johnci]

If I remember right, knuckleballs flourish in dry air and struggle in humidity. Now I can put that meteorology degree to use and am happy to note the cold front that blew through the mid-atlantic and northeast yesterday lowered dewpoints and humidity considerably. Should be a dry, cool night in Boston tonight. GL, Yessiree!

 

[YesSir]

I'd like your under better if the stats I see didnt read...

Wakefield is O/U 4-4 at home, but O/U 1-8 on the road

Halladay is O/U 6-0-1 on the road, but O/U 4-5 at home

Wakefield unders = the road, Halladay unders = at home. Neither fits this game's scenario, but BOL

Good Stats...Probably has a lot to to with Finway and the "Sky Dome"

Thanks :cheers:

gl tonite yessir

Thanks Sir:cheers:

BOL, Yessir. Liked the writeups.

Thanks GL tonight :cheers:

Good luck YesSir, leaning Orioles as well. :shake:

BOL today :cheers:

If I remember right, knuckleballs flourish in dry air and struggle in humidity. Now I can put that meteorology degree to use and am happy to note the cold front that blew through the mid-atlantic and northeast yesterday lowered dewpoints and humidity considerably. Should be a dry, cool night in Boston tonight. GL, Yessiree!

Nice, thanks :cheers:

 

[ClevelandsBest]

Yessir, you're completely correct on the Halladay starts against the Red Sox. I missed the 7 inning 2 run game. Boston does have some success against him but I think you are on the right side

 

[YesSir]

BOL CB- what part of Cleveland?