Thursday Baseball

E.T.G.

E.T.G.

One of trus baby mommas
Ya I am lazy so eventually I will go through an update everything.


Today is a small card again and pretty risky for the most part.

Padres -110 / Under 9+100:

A lot of unknown here, have to decide if I want to play this game because its at 12:00 or if I really feel I have a winner here. I don't know much about Howell except that he strikes a lot of guys out. He was one of the last players to make the roster in the spring and has only made 2 starts this yr. Padres are not good on offense, despite the breakout yesterday so its very possible they can be shutdown here. Germano has been solid in 5 of 6 starts this yr, the lone slip up coming against a red hot Seattle team. Germano is mostly a groundball pitcher and he doesn't walk many guys. If DRays are going to score today, they are going to earn their runs. If this game comes down to bullpens then its a big advantage SD and its a very real possibility that bullpens could pitch the 7-8-9 here so that is 1/3 of the game. SD is an average road team and TB is an average home team. This game is for the series, SD has lost 5 series this yr, the Seattle series last wkend where they were swept was the first series they lost since 5/10 to ATL. TB is 3-0-1 in their last 4 series and winners of 7 of their last 10 games.

Brewers -103
Pitt - whatever
Orioles -1
 
Pirates -1:

The second this line is available at BJ, I am locking it in and that should be about 11:00. I am going back to the well that paid me last night.

Gorzelanny is solid and my fav Pirate pitcher to bet. He is 6-3 w/ 2.76era this yr, 4-2 w/ 3.00era at home this yr but the Pirates are just 6-7 when he starts.

Loe will replace McCarty and what that means is that a pitcher who is 1-6 w/ 7.40era will be starting the game. Add in the fact the Rangers are just 2-8 when Loe pitches.

Loe away this yr = 0-2, 8.10era, 5g, 20ip, 29h, 10bb, 10.
Loe last 3 games = 0-2, 10.93era, 14ip, 20h, 6bb, 5k, 2.14 WHIP

I must say this once again, the Rangers are THE WORST road team in baseball.

<!-- / message -->Pirates going for a sweep have much more momentum than the Rangers do to avoid it at this point in the season... Pirates play hard with heart every night as well... Add in Tex being out for the Rangers, by far their best hitter and Gorzelanny being a tough pitcher and there are enough ingredients here for a play. Pirates don't always get a chance to sweep so I really think they jump at the opportunity here and defend their home turf. This would be their first sweep since April guys, ironically, that team was also from the state of Texas...They are coming to play tonight, just my opinion.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
 
I have made the decision to pass on a side in the SD/TB game, I just don't have that feel for the game that I would like. As far as the O/U goes, I am still exploring that option.
 
Pirates -1 $562 to Win $410
Pirates ML $362 to Win $200
Pirates RL $200 to Win $210


That play is now locked in, debating adding to it but I am going to think about that as the day goes on
 
wow did I jump the gun..

Pirates -168
Pirates RL +120


I really don't like any other play 2day, thinking of making the Pitt play a double
 
GL today Green, i'm just hoping there's some people out there that will bet Texas to bring it back down a bit.
 
reNew Orleans said:
GL today Green, i'm just hoping there's some people out there that will bet Texas to bring it back down a bit.
Click to expand...

Thanks, It dropped from -181 to -168, might continue dropping..

Ok guys, I leaned Padres, Brewers, Orioles today but I am laying off all of them and making my biggest wager to date. I have a wierd confidence about this play, a feeling that I had yesterday and the day before with the Tigers so I am going to follow it rather than play 3 other games I am not that confident in.




Pirates -1 $1,098 to Win $850:

I have written about this game in several places but I will put everything there is to say all into one piece here and thats it. Its quite possible this line keeps dropping but I don't have all day to line watch.

First we will start with the numbers:
  • Gorzelanny is 6-3 w/ 2.76era this yr, 4-2 w/ 3.00era at home but the Pirates are just 6-7 when he starts.
  • Gorzelanny has lasted at least six innings in 11 of his 13 starts this season.
  • Loe will replace McCarthy today, on the yr he is 1-6 w/ 7.40era and in the Rangers are just 2-8 when Loe pitches.
  • Gorzelanny last 3 games: 1-0, 3.60era, 20ip, 20h, 8bb, 11k.
  • Loe away this yr = 0-2, 8.10era, 5g, 20ip, 29h, 10bb, 10.
    Loe last 3 games = 0-2, 10.93era, 14ip, 20h, 6bb, 5k, 2.14 WHIP
  • Rangers are THE WORST road team in baseball (9-24)
<!-- / message -->Pirates going for a sweep have much more momentum than the Rangers do to avoid it at this point in the season... Pirates play hard with heart every night as well, Rangers don't... Add in Texiera being out for the Rangers, by far their best hitter (Avg & HR) and Gorzelanny being a tough pitcher and there are enough ingredients here for a play.

Pirates don't always get a chance to sweep so I really think they jump at the opportunity here and defend their home turf. This would be their first sweep since April guys, ironically, that team was also from the state of Texas...They are coming to play tonight, just my opinion.

I was on the Pirates yesterday with Snell and the same can be said today. In Gorzelanny I trust, in Loe I do not.

Maybe people are just surprised the Pirates are -170 but I've come to the point in baseball where you can not expect teams and pitchers in general to just suddenly turn it around one day, it is a streaky sport and its important to follow those streaks, don't go against them.

Pitt is a young group that could gain a little confidence here with a sweep at home where they have not played all that well this yr. Granted, Pitt's last sweep was back in April, this type of situation is different. I truly believe that although both teams are bad, they are bad in 2 different ways. Rangers have clubhouse problems, they have terrible starting pitching and haven't been in most games from the start, they can't play away from Texas one bit. Pitt is bad because they lose close games with a shitty bullpen outside of Capps and Marte, they lose cause they don't run the bases well, and they lose because guys like La Roche, Bay, and Nady were not hitting. La Roche is starting to come around, Sanchez and Bautista are hot, Nady came around and guys like Duffy are also getting on base, basically this offense is clicking and when you give Gorzelanny some run support, he is going to go out there and finish off the game for ya..


Pirates 7-2


I wish everyone the best of luck today, get that money!

:wacka wacka: :wacka wacka: :wacka wacka: :wacka wacka:
 
Another reason is that people most likely are really not believing that Pirates are able to sweep someone in series, though Pirates have done and done it twice (though both against Astros).

All in all Pinny offers -117 for Pirates -1, though combining it from ML and RL gives -114.28
 
good luck tonight Green. I like the Bucs too. Btw what do you guys think about over 7.5 at the Dome? both are hittable all of a sudden (yeah I know it's Johan), and the Sota offense is waking up BIG...

7.5 seems more than likely to be exceeded.

Thoughts?
 
Satyr said:
good luck tonight Green. I like the Bucs too. Btw what do you guys think about over 7.5 at the Dome? both are hittable all of a sudden (yeah I know it's Johan), and the Sota offense is waking up BIG...

7.5 seems more than likely to be exceeded.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...

I like it, i think the total is set due to the NAMES pitching. It's kind of ridiculous. Santana has given up on avg a HR per game, and a HR at home per game. Hudson is just giving up too many runs at the moment
 
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