Thursday, August 30th Play and Analysis

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Well gentlemen, its time for another season of college football. Nothing really beats the anticipation we go through each spring/summer awaiting the return of our sport. Its been a great summer so far of capping here at CTG. I want to thank everyone who has been involved in the forum in the dog days. The list is too long but guys like lindetrain, garfather, vegaskyle, yessir, jump, hunt, etg, dmoney, signacaller, RJ....the list goes on. Great job. Preperation is what will make us winners by season end. I cannot stress that enough. There is still lots of work to do but fortunately we have the time and talent to get it done.

About myself, I basically play straight plays. I do not do dips/teasers and the only parlays I will look at are very small ML paralys early in the year. I usually just tail Hunt on those and don't even post them. I am not a huge fan of totals but will do present some here and there. The landscape has changed again this season with the clock rules back like 2005. We will have to readjust our capping again but it is for the best. My strengths are my big plays. In the regular season last year I did not lose a single big play of 5 units. I am pretty proud of that fact and intend to keep on it again this year. My goal this year is to eliminate the needless plays. Its tough with big boards but I think I have a pretty good gameplan for this fall. Plays will range from 1-5 units in college football. I will also readjust how much each unit is worth after each 4 weeks that way the units are not on a sliding scale. I don't recommend my style of betting for everyone. It works for me. Flat betting works for others. Thats life. Thats about it..lets go win some money.


Tulsa at UL-Monroe

Lets take a quick look at the Warhawks first. I know this is a team that many of us have targeted as a team to look at this season. Seventeen starters return to a squad that went 4-8 last season. The two bad losses were to SEC teams(Alabama and Arkansas). Their other six losses were by a combined 21 points. They were competitive and finished off the season with two nice wins. Everyone is back on offense basically and I think the offense will only get better. Theye avereaged over 30 ppg their last four games. The defense has six starters back and allowed under 350 ppg and just 22 points. Figure that the three SEC teams they played each hit 40 and thats not too bad whatsoever. The secondary is the weakest part but the front 7 is deep and experienced which should take a lot of pressure off the backfield.

Tulsa has a new coach and a new attack. To read more about it you can vist RJ's thread here..

http://www.cappingthegame.com/forum/showthread.php?t=32019

Paul Smith is an excellent QB but his top two receivers are gone. So not only must they learn a new system but they are inexperienced as well for the most part. The offensive line is green as well and not that deep. With the new attack I would worry about fatigue early. On the other side of the ball Tulsa had a very good defese last year. They eturn half of the unit and will see a slight downgrade this year.

Tulsa won their games against mediocre competiton easily last year. Teams that I would consider on ULM's level for this yearTulsa was very inconsistent against. I expect Tulsa to improve each week with the new system. Week one though I believe they will struggle. ULM at home will move the ball enough and should have success against the green Tulsa O-Line. The early money is all over ULM and when taking a dog at this number you have to expect an outright win. I expect a close, hard fought warhawk win.

UL-Monroe +5.5 -110 1 unit


Thoughts, questions..leave them..and best of luck.
 
BAR,
Because that game is listed as an added game, that game is off the board at the CAl-Neva in Reno as they didn't make an early line on any Sun Belt teams. I can hardly blame them as they are already leading with their jaw putting up lines this early. (They came out Saturday and some got hammered pretty good and were taken off some live numbers. Nebraska opened -21 1/2 is is now -19 for example.)

I am only leaning on a couple of games and LM is one, but the game I feel the strongest for is Utah St+ 9 1/2. According to Phil steele, UNLV hasnt beaten them since 1994 and their record is 4-12 vs Utah St. 2-4. The last two recent meetings in 2004 and 2005, Utah St won SU at home+ 3 1/2 and SU+13 at UNLV. They did not meet last year and if there ever was phony RF-9 1/2 to start the year out, UNLV gets my vote! Logan, Utah is out in the middle of nowwhere plus altitude! If they can beat them by 10 or more out there, I will tip my hat. I know that Utah St was real garbage last year and some of the good handicappers here like UNLV because of Rocky Hinds. And I also know he was playing hurt ly, so I will keep my words nice and soft, just in case I have to swallow them. :smiley_acbe:
 
Thanks garfather

Vet,

That game has jumped a few points already. I don't know a lot about it yet. I looked briefly today and have yet to come to a conclusion other than it scares me. A lot of respected cappers are on UNLV. At the same point it is good to see a contra opinion on this game. Good stuff...look forward to more.
 
LSU @ Messy State

I will not bother with a write-up on this game. You can find plenty of reasons all over the forum for this play. I have been on the edge about it for awhile but after more and more thinking and a final push from RJ I have played it before it gets to 17

LSU -16.5 -110 1 unit
 
I didn't realize you already had a Tulsa/ ULM write up, my apologies, I kinda restated some things. I do agree with this play. Even if this game was played last year, I think i would fall in one of those "close loss" game categories and they would have covered. This year I don's see any reason why they wouldn't cover. The Warhawks are going to be better all around and Tulsa is losing some key guys... +5.5 is a great line for the 'Hawks and I too can see this one being an outright W.
 
RJ..I wouldn't call him wise..well maybe a wiseass ;)

Pokey, I absolutely think the Warhawks can win SU. Its going to be a close game but I think in this spot they are the better ballclub. Wish I could of had the opening number of 8 in vegas but alas I'll take my number. Of course it has since went back to 6 but that shouldn't be a problem in the long run.
 
I like this play. I caught that ULM-Kentucky game and they impressed me in an entertaining game. I hit them up the next two weeks vs. NT and ULL and they whooped ass. They were 8-3 ATS last yr as well.. With Tennial out for Tulsa, Paul Smith is officially the only player on offense with significant experience. He has to lead his team on the road with a new offensive scheme. This is certainly a live home dog and I might have to make this an action play for me to kick off the season. I don't like the game nearly as much as my other plays but its up there on my list of strong leans.
 
I like this play. I caught that ULM-Kentucky game and they impressed me in an entertaining game. I hit them up the next two weeks vs. NT and ULL and they whooped ass. They were 8-3 ATS last yr as well.. With Tennial out for Tulsa, Paul Smith is officially the only player on offense with significant experience. He has to lead his team on the road with a new offensive scheme. This is certainly a live home dog and I might have to make this an action play for me to kick off the season. I don't like the game nearly as much as my other plays but its up there on my list of strong leans.

:shake:
 
Someone was asking me offline about these games and their lines.

I see that someone hit Messy pretty hard yesterday to get it back to 17.5 I think having 17 was key for me as I really didn't want to go much above that number.

ULM is at a 3 everywhere I think. I think they win this game outright and would even recommend a ML play to be honest. Basically if it slips any further I think ML is the way to go.

Hate to say it...but may be adding one more play later tonight for opening night.
 
g/l this season bar.

you were on fire with those big plays last year.

lookin forward to sticking it to the bookie this season as well.
 
g/l this season bar.

you were on fire with those big plays last year.

lookin forward to sticking it to the bookie this season as well.

Thanks bro...hoping to hit the first two 5 unit plays this year and keep the krama going:tiphat:

Have a great season
 
BAR, with you on LSU......A lot of people seem to like UL Monroe, i think im one of the few who lean Tulsa, what really pushes u so hard on ULM out of all your facts
 
with you on ulm, but not such a sweet line. since moving to a local, I don't benefit from the early lines anymore :-(

don't think it will matter. gl tonight bar and lets kick ass this year.
 
Well....1-1

I'll take it...first thursday never treats me well...

I thought ULM's QB showed improvement at the end of last year and would continue as much but as Yanks told me a bit ago the guy fuckin sucks...

LSU was very nice though.
 
was with ya on both tonight. Got Ore st. too, hope they hold up. Great write ups and GL this year. i am sure I'll be with ya much more than on the other side.
 
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