Game 6 NBA Playoffs 2024 Best Bets
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 6:30 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Game 5 Indications
Milwaukee, despite being the underdog, won Game 5 by a strong margin.
But, as you can tell from looking at basically any playoff series ever, there is often significant variance in the outcome from one game to another.
So, we have to resist giving in to recency bias and liking the Bucks simply because they owned Game 5.
Recall the first two games of this series, both of which took place in Milwaukee.
The Bucks won Game 1 by 15 before losing Game 2 by 17.
Reasons for Variance
There is going to be a lot of variance in games involving at least one team that relies heavily on jump shots.
Indiana is such a team, and Milwaukee is partially responsible.
The Bucks want to pack the paint, compelling Indiana to attempt wide-open threes.
This is a dangerous strategy.
In Game 4 in Indiana, the Pacers made the Bucks pay. They largely knocked down those open threes.
Knocking down threes will inevitably stretch out a defense, as defenders will feel compelled to guard the perimeter more closely, and this will make scoring inside more easily.
Indiana scored 126 points in Game 4 due to its mixture of inside scoring and three-point shooting.
The Pacers lost Game 6 because they had a shooting performance similar to Game 1.
Better Shooting, Better Results
Indiana's poor shooting in Milwaukee can't be too surprising.
On the road, the Pacers shoot 35.7 percent from deep.
This conversion rate would position them in 21st place in three-point efficiency if it were an overall season-long statistic.
On the other hand, Indiana shoots 38.5-percent from deep at home.
This would position the Pacers in fourth place in three-point shooting if it were an overall season-long stat.
One must expect Indiana to shoot better at home.
The Pacers can also count on a much better performance from Pascal Siakam, who has been so instrumental to their success in this series.
He was off in Game 5, as evident in his 20-percent free throw conversion rate.
Point guard Tyrese Haliburton also had an off game, as evident in his missed open shots.
Because Indiana's two most important offensive players were off while Milwaukee's two most important ones were on, we got the result that we did.
But now it's up to Indiana's top players to play up to their abilities and to figure out ways to defend against Bobby Portis and Khris Middleton.
Pace
In Milwaukee, the Bucks forced the Pacers to play at their pace, slowing them down.
Indiana was caught off guard by Milwaukee's more switch-heavy scheme and played more hesitantly.
But, similar to the time between Games 1 and 2, the Pacers are going to watch film on their bad performance and be prepared.
Expect a much less stagnant Pacer team, feeding off the energy of its home crowd.
More movement – team-wide, coordinated movement, with cutting and so on – and slipping screens will help Indiana get up shots earlier in the shot clock, which will help the game tempo remain fast.
Defense and Rebounding
Indiana's defense gets a lot of criticism, but it will be good enough when the offense does its job. Bad offense bled into bad defense in Game 5.
But this is still a Bucks team missing its two top scorers.
Better communication will help the Pacers avoid preventable mistakes on defense.
Considering point totals, Milwaukee in Game 4 scored 111 points in regulation with Damian Lillard.
In Game 5 the Bucks scored 113 on the strength of a first half that relied on an element of surprise with a unique starting lineup.
An Indiana team that plays better offense and has a bit more focus on defense can very well hold the shorthanded Bucks to 100 points.
Greater effort will also allow Indiana to resurge in terms of rebounding.
Takeaway
Milwaukee's proclivity to allow Indiana to attempt wide-open threes is a recipe for disaster in Indiana.
Better shooting for the Pacers will open up the floor, maximizing their ability to execute planned adjustments against Milwaukee's switch-heavy scheme.
The Pacers will dictate tempo on their home floor, running and using their speed against a slower Bucks team that, in the half-court, also won't be able to rely on Indiana communicating so many communication lapses.
With so much tempo and shot-making, it won't take many stops for the Pacers to prevail with another double-digit home victory.
I'm seeing a 118-102 win for the Pacers.
Best Bet: Pacers -8 at -113 with BetOnline
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic
Friday, May 3, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at Kia Center
Orlando's Offensive Improvement
In Games 3 and 4, Orlando improved its scoring output by tremendous margins relative to Games 1 and 2.
Recall that Orlando scored over 110 points in both home games this series.
Such a dramatic difference could not be explained simply by a change of location.
Indeed, the Magic learned to be more aggressive. Their two most important scorers, Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero, became more effective thanks to individual adjustments, such as Wagner's increased efficiency in the mid-range making him more well-rounded offensively.
Jump shots also became more reliable for the team as a whole, further helping to open the floor.
Game 5, despite the series moving to Cleveland, showed the difficulty that Cleveland's front court has in defending Banchero and Wagner.
Jalen Suggs was off in Game 5, but he thrived in Orlando with his increased aggression.
In Game 6, with improved guard play thanks especially to Suggs, and the conspicuous readiness of Wagner and Banchero to lead their team's scoring, Orlando's offense will continue to look much improved relative to its start in this series.
Orlando's Defense
The Magic continue to limit Donovan Mitchell from an efficient standpoint, which is crucial because of Mitchell's centrality to Cleveland's offense.
Their ball-screen tactics and their on-ball defense have limited Mitchell's effectiveness.
Overall, their defense continued to limit Cleveland's efficiency inside and from behind the arc where the Cavaliers were largely forced to attempt tightly contested three-pointers as opposed to wide-open ones.
Game 5 saw Cleveland finally break past 100 points merely because the game was played at a faster pace.
That scoring output should therefore not suggest any actual substantial improvement in Cleveland's offense.
This will be especially obvious in Orlando given Cleveland's sizeable struggles with three-point efficiency away from home.
Cleveland On The Road
The Cavaliers are still worth fading on the road, not simply because they were blown out in both Games 3 and 4.
Their head coach has yet to lead them to a road playoff win. They were closest to getting one in a play-in game two seasons ago, when the Nets coasted to a seven-point win after leading by 20 in the first quarter.
Best Bet: Magic -4 at -110 with BetOnline
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Friday, May 3, 2024 at 9:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center
Game 5 Observations
The Clippers were blown out in Game 5, making it tempting to dismiss them in Game 6.
But one has to expect them to perform much better. The fact that Game 6 is in Dallas is irrelevant – the Clippers have already shown that they can win there.
In fact, they achieved a 31-point first-half lead in Game 4 in Dallas thanks largely to the strong shooting of their stars and to the contributions of their supporting cast.
Game 5 was anomalous: Paul George and James Harden especially are much better than they showed in that game.
Given how bad they were – I refer to the terribly inefficient shooting and the turnovers – it's clear that they were just off.
Game 6 Expectations
One has to expect these star players, Paul George and James Harden, to turn back on and resume their prior dominance, which they used to lead by 31 points in Game 4.
Crucially, L.A. is not going to play a hobbled Kawhi Leonard.
The Clippers on offense are more free-flowing and more naturally aggressive without Kawhi.
Their defense has also largely been very good this series, ably holding the Mavericks to below 50 points per half.
After so many games and adjustments, I don't foresee that changing. Luka Doncic just had one of his masterclass performances in Game 5 and Dallas' role players rather overachieved whereas Harden and George's supporting cast underachieved.
Perhaps more Daniel Theis and his offensive efficiency and a refusal on the part of Russell Westbrook to continue embarrassing himself would further help L.A.'s prospects in Game 6.
It's not a coincidence that L.A.'s worst defensive performance coincided with its worst offensive one. Its usually good offense will bring back the solid team defense.
Best Bet: Clippers +8 at -115 with BetOnline
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers
Thursday, May 2, 2024 at 6:30 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Game 5 Indications
Milwaukee, despite being the underdog, won Game 5 by a strong margin.
But, as you can tell from looking at basically any playoff series ever, there is often significant variance in the outcome from one game to another.
So, we have to resist giving in to recency bias and liking the Bucks simply because they owned Game 5.
Recall the first two games of this series, both of which took place in Milwaukee.
The Bucks won Game 1 by 15 before losing Game 2 by 17.
Reasons for Variance
There is going to be a lot of variance in games involving at least one team that relies heavily on jump shots.
Indiana is such a team, and Milwaukee is partially responsible.
The Bucks want to pack the paint, compelling Indiana to attempt wide-open threes.
This is a dangerous strategy.
In Game 4 in Indiana, the Pacers made the Bucks pay. They largely knocked down those open threes.
Knocking down threes will inevitably stretch out a defense, as defenders will feel compelled to guard the perimeter more closely, and this will make scoring inside more easily.
Indiana scored 126 points in Game 4 due to its mixture of inside scoring and three-point shooting.
The Pacers lost Game 6 because they had a shooting performance similar to Game 1.
Better Shooting, Better Results
Indiana's poor shooting in Milwaukee can't be too surprising.
On the road, the Pacers shoot 35.7 percent from deep.
This conversion rate would position them in 21st place in three-point efficiency if it were an overall season-long statistic.
On the other hand, Indiana shoots 38.5-percent from deep at home.
This would position the Pacers in fourth place in three-point shooting if it were an overall season-long stat.
One must expect Indiana to shoot better at home.
The Pacers can also count on a much better performance from Pascal Siakam, who has been so instrumental to their success in this series.
He was off in Game 5, as evident in his 20-percent free throw conversion rate.
Point guard Tyrese Haliburton also had an off game, as evident in his missed open shots.
Because Indiana's two most important offensive players were off while Milwaukee's two most important ones were on, we got the result that we did.
But now it's up to Indiana's top players to play up to their abilities and to figure out ways to defend against Bobby Portis and Khris Middleton.
Pace
In Milwaukee, the Bucks forced the Pacers to play at their pace, slowing them down.
Indiana was caught off guard by Milwaukee's more switch-heavy scheme and played more hesitantly.
But, similar to the time between Games 1 and 2, the Pacers are going to watch film on their bad performance and be prepared.
Expect a much less stagnant Pacer team, feeding off the energy of its home crowd.
More movement – team-wide, coordinated movement, with cutting and so on – and slipping screens will help Indiana get up shots earlier in the shot clock, which will help the game tempo remain fast.
Defense and Rebounding
Indiana's defense gets a lot of criticism, but it will be good enough when the offense does its job. Bad offense bled into bad defense in Game 5.
But this is still a Bucks team missing its two top scorers.
Better communication will help the Pacers avoid preventable mistakes on defense.
Considering point totals, Milwaukee in Game 4 scored 111 points in regulation with Damian Lillard.
In Game 5 the Bucks scored 113 on the strength of a first half that relied on an element of surprise with a unique starting lineup.
An Indiana team that plays better offense and has a bit more focus on defense can very well hold the shorthanded Bucks to 100 points.
Greater effort will also allow Indiana to resurge in terms of rebounding.
Takeaway
Milwaukee's proclivity to allow Indiana to attempt wide-open threes is a recipe for disaster in Indiana.
Better shooting for the Pacers will open up the floor, maximizing their ability to execute planned adjustments against Milwaukee's switch-heavy scheme.
The Pacers will dictate tempo on their home floor, running and using their speed against a slower Bucks team that, in the half-court, also won't be able to rely on Indiana communicating so many communication lapses.
With so much tempo and shot-making, it won't take many stops for the Pacers to prevail with another double-digit home victory.
I'm seeing a 118-102 win for the Pacers.
Best Bet: Pacers -8 at -113 with BetOnline
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic
Friday, May 3, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at Kia Center
Orlando's Offensive Improvement
In Games 3 and 4, Orlando improved its scoring output by tremendous margins relative to Games 1 and 2.
Recall that Orlando scored over 110 points in both home games this series.
Such a dramatic difference could not be explained simply by a change of location.
Indeed, the Magic learned to be more aggressive. Their two most important scorers, Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero, became more effective thanks to individual adjustments, such as Wagner's increased efficiency in the mid-range making him more well-rounded offensively.
Jump shots also became more reliable for the team as a whole, further helping to open the floor.
Game 5, despite the series moving to Cleveland, showed the difficulty that Cleveland's front court has in defending Banchero and Wagner.
Jalen Suggs was off in Game 5, but he thrived in Orlando with his increased aggression.
In Game 6, with improved guard play thanks especially to Suggs, and the conspicuous readiness of Wagner and Banchero to lead their team's scoring, Orlando's offense will continue to look much improved relative to its start in this series.
Orlando's Defense
The Magic continue to limit Donovan Mitchell from an efficient standpoint, which is crucial because of Mitchell's centrality to Cleveland's offense.
Their ball-screen tactics and their on-ball defense have limited Mitchell's effectiveness.
Overall, their defense continued to limit Cleveland's efficiency inside and from behind the arc where the Cavaliers were largely forced to attempt tightly contested three-pointers as opposed to wide-open ones.
Game 5 saw Cleveland finally break past 100 points merely because the game was played at a faster pace.
That scoring output should therefore not suggest any actual substantial improvement in Cleveland's offense.
This will be especially obvious in Orlando given Cleveland's sizeable struggles with three-point efficiency away from home.
Cleveland On The Road
The Cavaliers are still worth fading on the road, not simply because they were blown out in both Games 3 and 4.
Their head coach has yet to lead them to a road playoff win. They were closest to getting one in a play-in game two seasons ago, when the Nets coasted to a seven-point win after leading by 20 in the first quarter.
Best Bet: Magic -4 at -110 with BetOnline
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Friday, May 3, 2024 at 9:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center
Game 5 Observations
The Clippers were blown out in Game 5, making it tempting to dismiss them in Game 6.
But one has to expect them to perform much better. The fact that Game 6 is in Dallas is irrelevant – the Clippers have already shown that they can win there.
In fact, they achieved a 31-point first-half lead in Game 4 in Dallas thanks largely to the strong shooting of their stars and to the contributions of their supporting cast.
Game 5 was anomalous: Paul George and James Harden especially are much better than they showed in that game.
Given how bad they were – I refer to the terribly inefficient shooting and the turnovers – it's clear that they were just off.
Game 6 Expectations
One has to expect these star players, Paul George and James Harden, to turn back on and resume their prior dominance, which they used to lead by 31 points in Game 4.
Crucially, L.A. is not going to play a hobbled Kawhi Leonard.
The Clippers on offense are more free-flowing and more naturally aggressive without Kawhi.
Their defense has also largely been very good this series, ably holding the Mavericks to below 50 points per half.
After so many games and adjustments, I don't foresee that changing. Luka Doncic just had one of his masterclass performances in Game 5 and Dallas' role players rather overachieved whereas Harden and George's supporting cast underachieved.
Perhaps more Daniel Theis and his offensive efficiency and a refusal on the part of Russell Westbrook to continue embarrassing himself would further help L.A.'s prospects in Game 6.
It's not a coincidence that L.A.'s worst defensive performance coincided with its worst offensive one. Its usually good offense will bring back the solid team defense.
Best Bet: Clippers +8 at -115 with BetOnline
