Game 3 NBA Playoffs 2024 Best Bets: The Magic Will Improve Their Shot-Making
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic
Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at Kia Center
Cleveland On The Road
It might seem tempting to bet on Cleveland as an underdog because the Cavaliers have dominated this series so far.
However, until now, the games have taken place in Cleveland.
History tells us that location is crucial for the Cavaliers.
Last year, led by the same head coach, the Cavaliers lost their two road playoff games – in New York – by 20 and nine points, respectively. In neither road game did they come close to covering the spread.
Two years ago, again coached by J.B. Bickerstaff, they were down by 20 points after the first quarter in their play-in game on the road in Brooklyn. The Nets coasted to a seven-point win.
Orlando's Tough Defense
Cleveland's road struggles encompass a struggle to score points.
The Cavaliers have already failed twice in a row, at home, to reach 100 points against Orlando's defense.
The Magic have one of the NBA's top defense with their pressure and physicality.
They are only going to step up their energy further now that they are in desperation mode, down 0-2 in the series and now playing at home.
Magic Three-Point Shooting
When I predicted that Cleveland would dominate Game 2, I relied on Magic tendencies that were apparent throughout the regular season.
I'm obviously not going to lie to you and say that the Magic are a good shooting team.
They often have two consecutive bad shooting nights especially on the road – they shot poorly in Games 1 and 2.
But you also can't deny that they have good shooting performances, too.
This is a great spot for them to shoot well and to score a lot of points because they've laid two shooting duds in a row and are coming back home.
They repeatedly score at the very least 97 but typically well over 100 points when returning home from road games, such as when they scored 113 points against Phoenix.
So far in this series, they've made 25 percent of their wide-open three-point attempts and 24-percent of their open ones.
This team is much better than that. In the regular season, the Magic made 37.8 percent of their wide-open three-point attempts and 33.3 percent of their open ones.
They will shoot better tonight, which will prevent Cleveland from collapsing so hard inside because the Cavaliers will have to respect their shooters. Watch out for Gary Harris and Jalen Suggs especially.
Better three-point shooting will make scoring all the easier for Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero inside.
Banchero's second-highest point total in the regular season was 42 points. He did that in Cleveland, against this Cavaliers interior that is good, yes, but is getting overhyped because the Magic poor shooting had made them so easy to guard until now.
It won't take much scoring, but Orlando is going to pull it off at home against the perfect opponent, the Cavaliers who struggle on the road in the playoffs.
I foresee something like a 105-95 Magic win.
Best Bet: Magic ML at -135 with BetOnline
New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Wells Fargo Center
Philadelphia Is Angry
Some people dislike psychological angles because they require knowing what is in players' heads.
But this is common sense: the 76ers were so close to evening up the series, but New York pulled off a minor miracle and escaped with an amazing nail-biting win to go up 2-0 in the series.
The 76ers have to be angry.
They are returning home, down 2-0, and are in any case in desperation mode.
Even if you don't want to think that they are angry, they are certainly going to be desperate.
First-Quarter Play
I like the first quarter because the 76ers have already been owning the first quarter in New York.
They won the first quarter in Game 1 25-18 before winning the first quarter in Game 2 34-25.
I prefer the first quarter to the first half because, as evident since the Knicks took over the second quarter in Game 1, the 76ers are much worse without star Joel Embiid on the floor.
In terms of rebounding and overall threat, the injured but still strong scoring and defensive threat is most dangerous in the first quarter.
He lacks the endurance to play well for four quarters, and you can also say this of Tyrese Maxey, who has been carrying a strong load.
Granted, role players do tend to play better at home.
Sharpshooter Buddy Hield, for example, converts 40.1 percent of his threes at home compared to 36.8 percent of them on the road.
With a better supporting cast for scoring machines Embiid and Maxey, and given the team's defensive success overall and especially against star point guard Jalen Brunson, the 76ers do also make good full-game money-line parlay partner with the Magic.
Best Bet: 76ers First Quarter -2.5 at -105 with BetOnline
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Phoenix Suns
Friday, April 26, 2024 at 10:30 p.m. ET at Footprint Center
Minnesota's Defense
Minnesota has worn out Phoenix by playing hard for four quarters, which is something that it did not do in the regular season when the Suns were winning games.
The Suns are having trouble later in games, such as when they mustered all of 42 points in the second half of Game 2, because they lack depth as a team and rely so heavily on three players, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and Kevin Durant.
The Suns need great games from all three players, but Booker is hard to rely on because he consistently struggles when guarded by the lengthy Jaden McDaniels.
As also evident in two April regular season games, Booker struggles to be efficient against Minnesota primarily because of McDaniels, but also because Minnesota boasts other strong on-ball defenders, such as Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
An adage is that "defense travels." Unlike shot-making, a team's defensive quality does not decline on the road. So expect Minnesota to continue to showcase its top-caliber defense, which ranked number one in defensive rating in the regular season and has held Phoenix to 95 and 93 points, respectively.
Scoring Balance
The thing about Minnesota's offense is that it has so many scorers to rely on.
Anthony Edwards, who makes so many tough shots and has a great attitude for playoff basketball, is the main scorer and on-ball threat.
His first ever playoff road game last year was a poor one, but he quickly learned to succeed in the hostile atmosphere and dropped 41 points in Game 2 in Denver.
Last game, he scored only 15 points, but Minnesota won because, especially aided by Phoenix's poor interior defense, power forward McDaniels and center Rudy Gobert thrived inside.
Karl-Anthony Towns also didn't even do much, but veteran shooting guard Mike Conley stepped up.
Expect Minnesota to be more dangerous with better games from Towns and especially Edwards, who will bring a lot of energy on the court for the road team.
Best Bet: Timberwolves +4 at -110 with BetOnline
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic
Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at Kia Center
Cleveland On The Road
It might seem tempting to bet on Cleveland as an underdog because the Cavaliers have dominated this series so far.
However, until now, the games have taken place in Cleveland.
History tells us that location is crucial for the Cavaliers.
Last year, led by the same head coach, the Cavaliers lost their two road playoff games – in New York – by 20 and nine points, respectively. In neither road game did they come close to covering the spread.
Two years ago, again coached by J.B. Bickerstaff, they were down by 20 points after the first quarter in their play-in game on the road in Brooklyn. The Nets coasted to a seven-point win.
Orlando's Tough Defense
Cleveland's road struggles encompass a struggle to score points.
The Cavaliers have already failed twice in a row, at home, to reach 100 points against Orlando's defense.
The Magic have one of the NBA's top defense with their pressure and physicality.
They are only going to step up their energy further now that they are in desperation mode, down 0-2 in the series and now playing at home.
Magic Three-Point Shooting
When I predicted that Cleveland would dominate Game 2, I relied on Magic tendencies that were apparent throughout the regular season.
I'm obviously not going to lie to you and say that the Magic are a good shooting team.
They often have two consecutive bad shooting nights especially on the road – they shot poorly in Games 1 and 2.
But you also can't deny that they have good shooting performances, too.
This is a great spot for them to shoot well and to score a lot of points because they've laid two shooting duds in a row and are coming back home.
They repeatedly score at the very least 97 but typically well over 100 points when returning home from road games, such as when they scored 113 points against Phoenix.
So far in this series, they've made 25 percent of their wide-open three-point attempts and 24-percent of their open ones.
This team is much better than that. In the regular season, the Magic made 37.8 percent of their wide-open three-point attempts and 33.3 percent of their open ones.
They will shoot better tonight, which will prevent Cleveland from collapsing so hard inside because the Cavaliers will have to respect their shooters. Watch out for Gary Harris and Jalen Suggs especially.
Better three-point shooting will make scoring all the easier for Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero inside.
Banchero's second-highest point total in the regular season was 42 points. He did that in Cleveland, against this Cavaliers interior that is good, yes, but is getting overhyped because the Magic poor shooting had made them so easy to guard until now.
It won't take much scoring, but Orlando is going to pull it off at home against the perfect opponent, the Cavaliers who struggle on the road in the playoffs.
I foresee something like a 105-95 Magic win.
Best Bet: Magic ML at -135 with BetOnline
New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Thursday, April 25, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Wells Fargo Center
Philadelphia Is Angry
Some people dislike psychological angles because they require knowing what is in players' heads.
But this is common sense: the 76ers were so close to evening up the series, but New York pulled off a minor miracle and escaped with an amazing nail-biting win to go up 2-0 in the series.
The 76ers have to be angry.
They are returning home, down 2-0, and are in any case in desperation mode.
Even if you don't want to think that they are angry, they are certainly going to be desperate.
First-Quarter Play
I like the first quarter because the 76ers have already been owning the first quarter in New York.
They won the first quarter in Game 1 25-18 before winning the first quarter in Game 2 34-25.
I prefer the first quarter to the first half because, as evident since the Knicks took over the second quarter in Game 1, the 76ers are much worse without star Joel Embiid on the floor.
In terms of rebounding and overall threat, the injured but still strong scoring and defensive threat is most dangerous in the first quarter.
He lacks the endurance to play well for four quarters, and you can also say this of Tyrese Maxey, who has been carrying a strong load.
Granted, role players do tend to play better at home.
Sharpshooter Buddy Hield, for example, converts 40.1 percent of his threes at home compared to 36.8 percent of them on the road.
With a better supporting cast for scoring machines Embiid and Maxey, and given the team's defensive success overall and especially against star point guard Jalen Brunson, the 76ers do also make good full-game money-line parlay partner with the Magic.
Best Bet: 76ers First Quarter -2.5 at -105 with BetOnline
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Phoenix Suns
Friday, April 26, 2024 at 10:30 p.m. ET at Footprint Center
Minnesota's Defense
Minnesota has worn out Phoenix by playing hard for four quarters, which is something that it did not do in the regular season when the Suns were winning games.
The Suns are having trouble later in games, such as when they mustered all of 42 points in the second half of Game 2, because they lack depth as a team and rely so heavily on three players, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and Kevin Durant.
The Suns need great games from all three players, but Booker is hard to rely on because he consistently struggles when guarded by the lengthy Jaden McDaniels.
As also evident in two April regular season games, Booker struggles to be efficient against Minnesota primarily because of McDaniels, but also because Minnesota boasts other strong on-ball defenders, such as Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
An adage is that "defense travels." Unlike shot-making, a team's defensive quality does not decline on the road. So expect Minnesota to continue to showcase its top-caliber defense, which ranked number one in defensive rating in the regular season and has held Phoenix to 95 and 93 points, respectively.
Scoring Balance
The thing about Minnesota's offense is that it has so many scorers to rely on.
Anthony Edwards, who makes so many tough shots and has a great attitude for playoff basketball, is the main scorer and on-ball threat.
His first ever playoff road game last year was a poor one, but he quickly learned to succeed in the hostile atmosphere and dropped 41 points in Game 2 in Denver.
Last game, he scored only 15 points, but Minnesota won because, especially aided by Phoenix's poor interior defense, power forward McDaniels and center Rudy Gobert thrived inside.
Karl-Anthony Towns also didn't even do much, but veteran shooting guard Mike Conley stepped up.
Expect Minnesota to be more dangerous with better games from Towns and especially Edwards, who will bring a lot of energy on the court for the road team.
Best Bet: Timberwolves +4 at -110 with BetOnline
