Thursday 5 Unit NBA Play (With A Plug For Mozilla Firefox)

Gorgolon Lives

The Reverend of CTG
Suns ML -125 (5 Units)

I liked this as soon as I saw it yesterday. I tried finding reasons to play LA, but I can't. The Suns have dropped 6 of the last 7 ATS, and are just 4-3 SU. But I noticed a common thread in each one of these games. Either the Suns rebounding #'s were very low, or the opposition's rebounding #'s were very high. With the loss of Bynum, LA is much weaker on the glass. Certainly Kwame Brown doesn't have enough quickness to challenge Amare. LA is 11-1 SU their last 12, but check out the rebounding #'s: They were out-rebounded in half of those games, with Bynum in the lineup for the majority of the games. Also, in the Lakers winning streak, the turnover numbers have been oddly high: Over 12 turnovers in 8 of the 12 games.

Now, as we look back on the 2 meetings earlier in the season, the Lakers won both and in both games out-rebounded the Suns. But again, Bynum will not be in the lineup tonight. In those 2 games, the Lakers had 20 and 14 turnovers respectively.

I guess what I'm trying to say is how long can this keep up? How long can the Lakers keep winning games with high turnover numbers and poor rebounding numbers? There are 2 keys for the Suns winning tonight: The Suns need to win the turnover battle and the Suns need to win the rebounding battle. Based on the information above, I think this will happen, and I think the Suns will win the game.

Another thing to take into account is that the last 3 LA games have been nail-biters, winning by a combined 8 points in those games. This team is due for a loss to break this streak. I also like that Phoenix is coming off a clunker in their previous game against the Clippers.

I'd like to give a plug to Mozilla Firefox. My entire write-up was written, and my computer froze. I had to shutdown, but Firefox's new "restore session" feature had my web page opened up and all my information was still there. Internet Explorer is a thing of the past now.

Check out Mozilla here:

http://www.mozilla.org/

GL :cheers:

*Any questions or comments I'll answer when I get home tonight. This is the late game on a small card, plus it's televised. That means a lot of chaser action will come in right before tip and at halftime. I'll be logged in during halftime to check out the action.*
 
Love Mozilla.. I made my browser a UNC one, and added the weatherbug feature.
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love the play, but why the ML?

at -125 thats risking 6.25 units to win 5.

why not just lay the -110 for -1.5, or even better odds like -105 at a couple other books? I mean I know "there's no juice if it wins" and you fully expect to win, but still. you could be laying 5.5 to win 5 (at -110) or if you wanna lay 6.25 you could win around 5.7 units.

either way, BOL. what you think of the 1st H in this game?
 
LMAO Abcs....hows that not UGA,USC or the ATL?

Nice write-up beLIE.....good luck
:36_11_6:

Well UNC is currently #1 :tiphat:You know how i roll..

Actually they don't have any of the teams you listed. Plus I use to go to basketball camp in chapel hill back when they had Sheed and Montross 'an_horse' Also notice the european tour leaderboard, always capping.. :36_9_2:
 
:36_11_6:

Well UNC is currently #1 :tiphat:You know how i roll..

Actually they don't have any of the teams you listed. Plus I use to go to basketball camp in chapel hill back when they had Sheed and Montross 'an_horse' Also notice the european tour leaderboard, always capping.. :36_9_2:

Yes I did
 
love the play, but why the ML?

at -125 thats risking 6.25 units to win 5.

why not just lay the -110 for -1.5, or even better odds like -105 at a couple other books? I mean I know "there's no juice if it wins" and you fully expect to win, but still. you could be laying 5.5 to win 5 (at -110) or if you wanna lay 6.25 you could win around 5.7 units.

either way, BOL. what you think of the 1st H in this game?

I rather lose extra juice on the loss, than to get a push or lose by 1.

I like the OVER for the 1H.
 
Really strange half statistically. I haven't been watching the game, but it looks like the Lakers' D sucks tonight.

The weak 2H line of 3 doesn't scare me. No middling here. Suns should take this by 20.
 
Only play I'd consider would be Over really. But nothing stands out. This game is just too weird to make a wager. Better to just wait for tomorrow!
 
yea believe. considering i already have phoenix for the game and under which both are likely to hit. so i said ffffffff it. i parlayed phoenix +3, the under, green bay packers, and under in new england. by the looks of it, i should get both legs tonight, hope for an under in NE and green bay cover. 1 unit for 1000.
 
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