Thursday 2-out RBI will be the death of me Discussion

GWarner27

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
unders they always happen, overs never

leans from the BOL open:
WAS u7: Hoye
HOU +146: Baker
BOS +110: Fletcher

on the radar:
CIN u8
 
Angels have gone a season high 11 games without conceding a 5+ run total.
Their previous longest such streaks this season were 6 then 3 (9 times) games. Before this streak they conceded an average of one 5+ run total every 2.53 games played.

Angels have gone a season high 15 games without one totaling 12+ runs.
Their previous longest such streaks this season were 10 then 8 games. Before this streak they combined with their opponent to average one 12+ run game every 3.79 played.

Angels have gone a season high 8 road games without one totaling 12+ runs.
Their previous longest such streaks this season were 6 then 5 (twice) games. Before this streak they combined with their opponent to average one 12+ run road game every 2.94 played (their rate for 12+ run home games is almost twice as high, at 5.18).


Shoemaker's L6 starts have gone 5-1 to Under after his previous 6 starts went 5-0-1 to Over.
This switch can be explained partly by his improved efforts (L6's era 3.05/whip 1.10 from previous 6's era 4.89/whip 1.43), and partly from a drop off in run support (L6's 3.67 rpg from previous 6's 6.17 rpg).

For those who didn't see: Josh Hamilton took game 1 off against Boston after a (remembering rightly) 4/35 run, but looked really good in going 2-3 with 3 RBI (incl. 2 sac flies) in Game 2.
 
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[TABLE="class: linesTbl"]
<tbody>[TR="class: linesHeader"]
[TD="colspan: 8"][h=4]MLB Baseball - Thu 8/21[/h][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesColumns"]
[TD="colspan: 4"]Game[/TD]
[TD]Handicap[/TD]
[TD]Money Line[/TD]
[TD]Total[/TD]
[TD]More[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate"]Thu 8/21[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold"]951[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam"]Arizona Diamondbacks
W. Miley[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread"]+1.5 -131[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine"]+170[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals"]Over 7.5 -105[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD]01:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold"]952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam"]Washington Nationals
G. Gonzalez[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread"]-1.5 +121[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine"]-185[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals"]Under 7.5 -105[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate"]Thu 8/21[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold"]953[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam"]Atlanta Braves
J. Teheran[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread"]-1.5 +118[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine"]-148[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals"]Over 8 -105[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD]04:10 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold"]954[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam"]Cincinnati Reds
D. Holmberg[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread"]+1.5 -128[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine"]+136[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals"]Under 8 -105[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate"]Thu 8/21[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold"]955[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam"]San Francisco Giants
M. Bumgarner[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine"]-155[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD]05:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold"]956[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam"]Chicago Cubs
T. Wood[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine"]+143[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate"]Thu 8/21[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold"]959[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam"]Houston Astros
D. Keuchel[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread"]+1.5 -141[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine"]+152[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals"]Over 8 +102[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD]10:05 AM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold"]960[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam"]New York Yankees
B. McCarthy[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread"]-1.5 +130[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine"]-165[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals"]Under 8 -113[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate"]Thu 8/21[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold"]961[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam"]Cleveland Indians
C. Kluber[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread"]-1.5 +124[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine"]-144[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals"]Over 7 +107[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD]10:10 AM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold"]962[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam"]Minnesota Twins
P. Hughes[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread"]+1.5 -134[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine"]+133[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals"]Under 7 -118[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate"]Thu 8/21[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold"]963[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam"]Detroit Tigers
D. Price[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread"]-1.5 +148[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine"]-118[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals"]Over 6.5 -105[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD]10:10 AM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold"]964[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam"]Tampa Bay Rays
A. Cobb[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread"]+1.5 -161[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine"]+109[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals"]Under 6.5 -105[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate"]Thu 8/21[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold"]965[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam"]LAA Angels
M. Shoemaker[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread"]-1.5 +130[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine"]-127[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals"]Over 9 -105[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD]04:10 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold"]966[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam"]Boston Red Sox
R. De La Rosa[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread"]+1.5 -141[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine"]+117[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals"]Under 9 -105[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
SF is 11-7-1 to Over their L19 (completed) road games vs. sub-.500 teams.

SF has scored at least 3 runs over 4+ straight (completed) games for the 2nd time over their last 14 (completed) games (overall avg. 4.35 team rpg, 7-7 SU), after failing to do so at all through their previous 39 games (overall avg. 3.05 team rpg, 15-24 SU).

------

Cubs have gone a season high 14 (completed) home games without scoring a 5+ run total
Their previous longest such streaks this season were 7 then 2 (6 times) games. Before this streak they averaged one 5+ run total every 2.09 home games played.

Cubs have gone a season high 12 (completed) games without scoring a 5+ run total
Their previous longest such streaks this season were 6 then 5 (6 times) games. Before this streak they averaged one 5+ run total every 2.57 games played.
 
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LA is 13-5-2 to Over (12-8 SU, avg. 4.75 team rpg) this season playing a home game off a home loss & facing an NL opponent.

LA is 6-1-1 to Over (6-2 SU, avg. 5.37 team rpg) this season playing a home game off a home loss & facing a divisional opponent.

-----

San Diego is 7-0 to Over their L7 Game 3's, after delivering a 21-6-2 Under mark over all their previous game 3's.

SD is 6-2 SU in their L8 game 3's, after going 8-20 SU over all their previous game 3's.

SD is on a 15-9-1 to Over run after going 66-30-4 to Under through their first 100 games.

-----

SD & LA are 13-10-1 to Over since 2012 for games played in LA:

- Games in which the eventual winner scored at least 3 runs have gone 13-3-1 to Over
(Kershaw started 4, all went Over).

- Games in which the eventual loser scored at least 2 runs have gone 13-2-1 to Over
(Kershaw started 4, all went Over).

-----

Ump for this game is 7-3 to Over this season for games lined 7.5 or less.
 
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Pet peeve taking 1.5 with minus money. Arizona plus 1.5 minus 30 cents tomorrow. Maybe. Gio is 2-5 in the day this season and has won 2 of his last 7 starts. Real upset? Tend to doubt it as Arizona has real trouble hitting and Miley is a leftie which is not good in Washington.
Last 14 home wins for Washington break 7-7 laying 1.5 and come with 6 SU losses last 20 at home.
Miley away 2.86 ERA to Gio at home 4.67 and Miley in the day 2.75 to Gio 4.50
Washington has Frisco starting next day.
 
Based on splits Cobb blows Price away tomorrow
Cobb is best on 5 with a 2.25 ERA and best in the day with a 2.30 ERA
Price on 4 4-6 3.53 ERA in the day 3.93
Detroit in the day 24-23 Tampa 23-23 so Tampa has improved a lot and Detroit has gotten much worse.
 
My concern for TBY is Detroit wasn't playing at all well before this series (6-15 SU previous 21 games against +.400 teams), yet they're threatening a sweep. Why? TBY performed for such a lengthy period prior to this current 4 game losing streak (28-12 SU over 40 games) despite the fact they knew all along it was for naught (playoff hopes were never realisitic). Methinks they either have or are approaching hitting the wall (aside the current losing streak, the other note of warning is they're only 3-9 SU L12 vs. +.500 teams after going 17-5 SU their 22 previous games against them). The last time they lost 4 straight was during a 9-21 SU run.

This is their last game against a non-divisional opp. before they play 26 straight against AL East teams, starting w/3 at a venue (Toronto) where they were swept last time they visited. They beat Detroit 3-1 @Detroit earlier in the season, so there's no revenge angle I can see. Just the fact Price is pitching may be what they get up for. I'd lump them in the *mentally cooked* basket til they demonstrate otherwise, the signs are there. How often do we see a team with a bad record perform beyond what that record suggests for them to get on the doorstep of .500, then just hit the mediocre button and it all turns to shit again?
 
tuck321 said:
Pet peeve taking 1.5 with minus money. Arizona plus 1.5 minus 30 cents tomorrow. Maybe. Gio is 2-5 in the day this season and has won 2 of his last 7 starts. Real upset? Tend to doubt it as Arizona has real trouble hitting and Miley is a leftie which is not good in Washington.
Last 14 home wins for Washington break 7-7 laying 1.5 and come with 6 SU losses last 20 at home.
Miley away 2.86 ERA to Gio at home 4.67 and Miley in the day 2.75 to Gio 4.50
Washington has Frisco starting next day.
Click to expand...

i was looking to pick up Gio in fantasy and unfortunately he's been too much of a wildcard. Would have grabbed him last night after seeing Richards went down and is probably done, but it was too late at that point. Not sure what to make of him to be honest, he and Strasburg seem like really poor sports who pout when things don't go right for 'em

tuck321 said:
Based on splits Cobb blows Price away tomorrow
Cobb is best on 5 with a 2.25 ERA and best in the day with a 2.30 ERA
Price on 4 4-6 3.53 ERA in the day 3.93
Detroit in the day 24-23 Tampa 23-23 so Tampa has improved a lot and Detroit has gotten much worse.
Click to expand...

gotta think Price will be pretty motivated against his old team and they haven't hit him before, but then again I expect a good outing from Cobb and was hoping to go under until the ump didn't align
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
My concern for TBY is Detroit wasn't playing at all well before this series (6-15 SU previous 21 games against +.400 teams), yet they're threatening a sweep. Why? TBY performed for such a lengthy period prior to this current 4 game losing streak (28-12 SU over 40 games) despite the fact they knew all along it was for naught (playoff hopes were never realisitic). Methinks they either have or are approaching hitting the wall (aside the current losing streak, the other note of warning is they're only 3-9 SU L12 vs. +.500 teams after going 17-5 SU their 22 previous games against them). The last time they lost 4 straight was during a 9-21 SU run.

This is their last game against a non-divisional opp. before they play 26 straight against AL East teams, starting w/3 at a venue (Toronto) where they were swept last time they visited. They beat Detroit 3-1 @Detroit earlier in the season, so there's no revenge angle I can see. Just the fact Price is pitching may be what they get up for. I'd lump them in the *mentally cooked* basket til they demonstrate otherwise, the signs are there. How often do we see a team with a bad record perform beyond what that record suggests for them to get on the doorstep of .500, then just hit the mediocre button and it all turns to shit again?
Click to expand...

i'm not sure they think they're done, Maddon is a master of motivation and they're over .500 on the road so I could see them making a run to make up 8 games after seeing what they did in 2012
 
Keuchel on the road vs. AL teams this season
- 1.42 era & 0.83 whip in his first 6 starts - Hou. 6-0 SU
- 5.40 era & 1.86 whip his last 5 starts - Hou. 2-3 SU

Houston is 2-4 SU this season playing off 3 wins in their previous 3 games (5 games decided by 3+ run margins).

Houston's L10 road game 3's have gone 10-0 to Over.

Houston's latest 28 roadies have gone 18-9-1 to Over, after their initital 34 roadies went 19-13-2 to Under.

-----

Yankees have gone a season high 14 games without scoring a 6-9 run total.
Their previous longest such streaks this season were 12 then 8 games. Before this streak they managed to score one 6-9 run total game every 4.40 games played.

The Yankees this season are:
- 37-21 SU (.637) in games played w/their record 2 games above .500 or worse.
- 26-40 SU (.394) in games played w/their record 3 games above .500 or better.

The Yankees are 14-8 SU (6-2 SU @home) in games played with their record sitting at exactly 2 games above the .500 mark.

McCarthy has given up 4 ER in 24.0 IP in 4 starts this season @Yankee stadium.

Yankee home game 3's not part of a d/h this season have gone 7-6-2 to Under.

-----

Houston is now 4-1 SU against the Yankees this season. They travel to Cleveland tomorrow to face a team they've lost 6 straight to. Yankees aren't making the playoffs to send Jeter off, but they play like they have no intention of sending him off with a losing record whenever they get within the vicinity of threatening to do so. Ump has been kind (to the tune of 8-4) to decent home faves (>-121), I'll have a nibble at the RL & not expect the Yankees to win if I fail to cash, setting up their next series against another bunch of stiffs.
 
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GWarner27 said:
i'm not sure they think they're done, Maddon is a master of motivation and they're over .500 on the road so I could see them making a run to make up 8 games after seeing what they did in 2012
Click to expand...

The difference between 2012 (& '13/'11'/'10/'08) & 2014, is this Maddon team had the bottom fall out of it (to the tune of falling as low as 18 games below .500). Of all the years they've performed in in recent memory, they've never been more than 1 game below .500 after 40 games into the season; this year they were 6 games under at said point (on the way to -18). Their recent turnaround has been courtesy of their schedule, not a lot else. String of games against MIN, TEX, CHC, BOS, and the muddling TOR & NYY sides. They're still only 6-10 their L16 against the teams seriously in the playoff race. IMO if your pov was going to manifest itself as being the case, they'd have kicked on against NYY & DET after they finally reached .500 again. To immediately drop like a stone from that mark against two muddling teams, that's a red flag to me.
 
no Ian Desmond/Miguel Montero in WAS today at 4pm, like under with Hoye as it's climbed to give me an extra half
 
Stuckey just mentioned that since the all-star break Padres have the hightest hitting average in baseball. Kershaw 1-4 with ump and both starters on best rest?
 
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