Thursday 11/06/14 NBA discussion thread

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[TD="colspan: 8"][h=4]NBA BASKETBALL BASKETBALL - THU 11/6[/h][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #000032, colspan: 4, align: center"]GAME[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]HANDICAP[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MONEY LINE[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]TOTAL POINTS[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MORE[/TD]
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[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Thu 11/6[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]701[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]San Antonio Spurs[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+3 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 201.5 1.917[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]05:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]702[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Houston Rockets[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-3 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 201.5 1.990[/TD]
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[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Thu 11/6[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]703[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Dallas Mavericks[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+2.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 207.5 1.934[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]07:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]704[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Portland Trail Blazers [/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-2.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 207.5 1.970[/TD]
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[divol]

I like SAS here and maybe Over.
The line went up a point and the total went down 2.5 points.

Rockets are 5 - 0 SU and ATS, but besides the game in Miami, they won LAL, Utah, Boston and Sixers - 4 of the bottom 5 - 6 teams in the league.

Spurs lost the last 5 games to the Rockets and I'm sure they were thinking about Houston last night.

They had 4 days of rest before this B2B set, so I don't expect too much fatigue to kick in here.

Jones possible absence can be huge for the Rockets.

 

[IvyinBarondise]

I like SAS here and maybe Over.
The line went up a point and the total went down 2.5 points.

Rockets are 5 - 0 SU and ATS, but besides the game in Miami, they won LAL, Utah, Boston and Sixers - 4 of the bottom 5 - 6 teams in the league.

Spurs lost the last 5 games to the Rockets and I'm sure they were thinking about Houston last night.

They had 4 days of rest before this B2B set, so I don't expect too much fatigue to kick in here.

Jones possible absence can be huge for the Rockets.

I disagree with most of your logic here...

A) The spurs aren't prone to look ahead spots (it's why they're so consistent in reg season records. But if they were...they wouldn't have let their older players play so many minutes to secure last night's win.

B) It's tough to spin the Spurs losing 5 straight to Houston as a position for taking the Spurs...Spurs biggest weakness is teams with strong centers and athletic guards and Houston's got both.

C) Spurs are 0-3 ATS and Houston are 5-0...I think you really gotta consider letting the streaks end before you start fading them both.


That being said, I'm not betting Houston tonight...I know the Spurs and they're primed for an offensive exposion one day soon. They haven't had it yet. They're gonna go over 70 points in a first half very soo and I don't wanna be on the opposite side when they do

That being said, I agree with you (I think) on the over... the lines are usually much higher for these two teams, Spurs b2b FG%s aren't bad and Houston hasn't gone under 100 ppg yet this season..

BOL kid, nice to see ya here

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Houston is on fire to start the season, but looking closer, we see that the schedule has been fairly easy. Public will likely be backing the hot favorite tonight on national tv against a team on a B2B. With few games to choose from, I'm sure Houston will get a lot of forced bets. Spurs look like a decent play here, grabbing the points and fading the movement. Spurs b2b situation shouldn't factor in much this early in the year, and they only have to travel from SA to HOUS...short distance.

Coin flip in the second game...

 

[emkee]

Two football games tonight especially with one being NFL somewhat negates the public influence, unlikely dudes are lining up to fade the defending champs regardless what Sports Insights etc says.

 

[divol]

I disagree with most of your logic here...

A) The spurs aren't prone to look ahead spots (it's why they're so consistent in reg season records. But if they were...they wouldn't have let their older players play so many minutes to secure last night's win.

B) It's tough to spin the Spurs losing 5 straight to Houston as a position for taking the Spurs...Spurs biggest weakness is teams with strong centers and athletic guards and Houston's got both.

C) Spurs are 0-3 ATS and Houston are 5-0...I think you really gotta consider letting the streaks end before you start fading them both.


That being said, I'm not betting Houston tonight...I know the Spurs and they're primed for an offensive exposion one day soon. They haven't had it yet. They're gonna go over 70 points in a first half very soo and I don't wanna be on the opposite side when they do

That being said, I agree with you (I think) on the over... the lines are usually much higher for these two teams, Spurs b2b FG%s aren't bad and Houston hasn't gone under 100 ppg yet this season..

BOL kid, nice to see ya here

A) You got me wrong. I do think Spurs were looking ahead.

B) Spurs swept a year ago Memphis and they fit what you sad above. Obviously teams find it harder to beat good teams than to beat bad teams.

C) I always looking for streaks to end, not the other way around. Just my style of capping. Also, I think that Rockets streak lies a bit.

 

[tuck321]

Pounding the Rock estimated a 5 point Houston win. No lock of course but does reduce my interest

 

[IvyinBarondise]

Wow...I just wrote a lot of stuff that just got deleted fuck.

Spurs don't really need this game. They're old enough to actually not go hard should Houston jump out early. Securing the health of key players like Duncan and Manu and Tony trumps any concerns over the importance of 1/82. Houston MIGHT care more about this game, they are playing the defending champs tonight. I think the line's pretty tight here. I see no reason to jump on either side. I also agree that I don't believe the public's lining up to bet against the defending champs tonight. Houston's record against them recently and their record this season doesn't really matter much. Small sample sizes mean very little to me. I think on paper, these teams are very close. Spurs have that x factor which is why they're champs. They can be playing bad, and then you look up and they're up 5. It's coaching and professionalism. Their 3pt fg% keeps them in any game at any time and when they DO lose, it's generally because they're having an uncharacteristically poor shooting night. When there's good points to be made on both sides, and it's a sharp TNT line...why bet it?

Too many guys overcook these TNT games. I think it's a pretty easy non play. That being said, look at these team's history. This total seems a little too low and probably based too much on SAS's minutes last night and their poor ppg total's thus far in the season. (Which mean nothing to me) Make this play on the over 10x and win 7.

You wanna bet? Take the over, Divol, I think you were leaning over right? A play on the over is almost like a play on SAS's competing so this is a way for you to hedge your bet a little while laying off the sharp TNT line.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Duncan OUT

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Manu also OUT

 

[M.W.]

Duncan, Manu, Splitter, Beli, and Patty are all out tonight.

 

[M.W.]

Five games in 7, so:

http://www.nba.com/spurs/spurs-injury-report-11/6/14

Marco Belinelli (mild strain, right groin), Tim Duncan (rest), Manu Ginobili (rest), Patty Mills (right shoulder surgery) and Tiago Splitter (tightness, right calf) are listed as out for tonight's game at Houston.

 

[CASH]

don't understand the 1h total drop to 97.5... took it over again..
those guys being out for S.A. mean nothing for this line to drop..i will take it..

 

[CASH]

Beverly out

 

[emkee]

Beverly out

Too bad. Dude looked good in South Beach.

 

[Retburj13]

uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuugly 1H for both

gawd awful nba viewing so far, not even fake fun to watch

...good thing browns ripping Ginger a new one early on TNF