Thursday 01/29/15 NBA discussion thread

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The Spurs can suck my manhood
[TABLE="class: linesTbl, width: 954"]
<tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px;">[TR="class: linesHeader"]
[TD="colspan: 8"][h=4]NBA BASKETBALL BASKETBALL - THU 1/29[/h][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesColumns"]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, colspan: 4, align: center"]GAME[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]HANDICAP[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MONEY LINE[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]TOTAL POINTS[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MORE[/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Thu 1/29[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]501[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Milwaukee Bucks [/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-4 1.980[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 1.606[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 204 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]04:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]502[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Orlando Magic[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+4 1.925[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 2.490[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 204 1.952[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Thu 1/29[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]503[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]New York Knicks[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+7 1.934[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 3.560[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 187 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]04:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]504[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Indiana Pacers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-7 1.970[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 1.344[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 187 1.952[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Thu 1/29[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]505[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Denver Nuggets[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+10.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 6.160[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 197 1.943[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]05:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]506[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Memphis Grizzlies[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-10.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"] 1.160[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 197 1.961[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Thu 1/29[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]507[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Chicago Bulls[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-9.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 1.204[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 194.5 1.909[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]07:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]508[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Los Angeles Lakers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+9.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"] 5.160[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 194.5 2.000[/TD]
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</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
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I like Bucks, Denver and Knicks tonight. Some good Unders as well on paper.

Memphis are terrible as big home favorites, while Denver and Knicks both streaky.
Denver are 6 - 1 in the last two seasons, playing on the road, after ATS cover on the road the game before.
Memphis covered only 7 out of 23 games they played as favorites by 7+ points at home, despite winning 19 of them.

 
First thought is actually Memphis first 5.
Memphis recently beat Philadelphia by 18 and NY by 22 and they would love to toast Denver who beat them earlier by 29. They are playing 4 in 6 with look a heads. Denver is playing WORST 5 in 7 off an upset win of a team that has beaten Memphis this year. Best guess is I play Memphis first half but no action till I look at trends. And really do not see any bet on Denver currently
 
A little interested in the Knicks but want to see line ups. Will look at the other games. Lakers might be a possibility as they come directly in front of the Suns
 
bucs 9-7 last 16 and have beat all the poor teams they have faced and lost to the good ones...they play good d...4th in points allowed...7th? in assists
majic 6L-2W-6L last 14....not much good about this team currently

can't see bucs losing unless they don't show up and majic does
 
Been distracted by college basketball. Locked in UAB plus 11.5
May have to bet against Belmont
Also U Conn first half vs Cinn is a mandatory Gilmo play
 
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Killersports not up but saw this
Denver: 24-36 ATS after 1 or more consecutive unders
Memphis: 25-7 ATS off a win by 15 points or more as an underdog\
No bet yet
 
+33 on the year..

Magic +4- xl
1h over 99 grizz- large
Bulls tt over 102 - medium
 
Killersports has among other things a 10-0 trend for Denver ATS today. It has dueling trends for the under and over in the game and a 7-0 trend for the Bucks and a 10-0 trend for the Bucks.
Not sure what I am doing.
Part of a Denver post
Under 100 points
The Nuggets continue to be successful when the game slows down. It's a bit of a weird conundrum that a team with the 5th highest pace is actually better, or more accurately, more successful, when the game slows down. In general, slowing the pace is a good strategy for bad teams. Fewer possessions means a higher variance. If the Nuggets played every team to 1000 points, the better team would win more frequently. If the Nuggets played every team to 90 points, there is a higher chance that the weaker team would get a lucky bounce here or there that would have a greater impact on the outcome.
This season, the Nuggets are 12-4 when they hold opponents to 100 points or fewer and 8-0 when holding opponents under 96 points. The Grizzlies are a very formidable opponent but are prone to going cold. They have scored fewer than 96 points 14 times this season and are 6-8 in those games. Put another way, 8 of their 12 losses have come when they are held below 96 points. The goal, it would seem, is to slow the pace down a bit more than usual and force Memphis to grind out half court offense.
 
tuck321 said:
Killersports has among other things a 10-0 trend for Denver ATS today. It has dueling trends for the under and over in the game and a 7-0 trend for the Bucks and a 10-0 trend for the Bucks.
Not sure what I am doing.
Part of a Denver post
Under 100 points
The Nuggets continue to be successful when the game slows down. It's a bit of a weird conundrum that a team with the 5th highest pace is actually better, or more accurately, more successful, when the game slows down. In general, slowing the pace is a good strategy for bad teams. Fewer possessions means a higher variance. If the Nuggets played every team to 1000 points, the better team would win more frequently. If the Nuggets played every team to 90 points, there is a higher chance that the weaker team would get a lucky bounce here or there that would have a greater impact on the outcome.
This season, the Nuggets are 12-4 when they hold opponents to 100 points or fewer and 8-0 when holding opponents under 96 points. The Grizzlies are a very formidable opponent but are prone to going cold. They have scored fewer than 96 points 14 times this season and are 6-8 in those games. Put another way, 8 of their 12 losses have come when they are held below 96 points. The goal, it would seem, is to slow the pace down a bit more than usual and force Memphis to grind out half court offense.
Click to expand...

That 10-0 ATS Nuggets trend last occurred in April 2012. Denver have trended downward since then.
 
tuck321 said:
Killersports has among other things a 10-0 trend for Denver ATS today. It has dueling trends for the under and over in the game and a 7-0 trend for the Bucks and a 10-0 trend for the Bucks.
Not sure what I am doing.
Part of a Denver post
Under 100 points
The Nuggets continue to be successful when the game slows down. It's a bit of a weird conundrum that a team with the 5th highest pace is actually better, or more accurately, more successful, when the game slows down. In general, slowing the pace is a good strategy for bad teams. Fewer possessions means a higher variance. If the Nuggets played every team to 1000 points, the better team would win more frequently. If the Nuggets played every team to 90 points, there is a higher chance that the weaker team would get a lucky bounce here or there that would have a greater impact on the outcome.
This season, the Nuggets are 12-4 when they hold opponents to 100 points or fewer and 8-0 when holding opponents under 96 points. The Grizzlies are a very formidable opponent but are prone to going cold. They have scored fewer than 96 points 14 times this season and are 6-8 in those games. Put another way, 8 of their 12 losses have come when they are held below 96 points. The goal, it would seem, is to slow the pace down a bit more than usual and force Memphis to grind out half court offense.
Click to expand...

I see the Denver trend and they were moving that ball last game but like all treads did you see the Ty Lawson one. But all the others look good and IMO Memphis isn't a team to be laying Double Digits.
I'll ride the Denver Train with you and Emkee. Thanks Emkee didn't noticed that either just looking now . Still to much for Memphis
 
Paulie The Vig said:
I see the Denver trend and they were moving that ball last game but like all treads did you see the Ty Lawson one. But all the others look good and IMO Memphis isn't a team to be laying Double Digits.
I'll ride the Denver Train with you and Emkee.
Click to expand...

I'm riding the Grizz train tonight, Paulie.
 
CASH said:
This isn't your daddy's Memphis team..
Click to expand...

I understand what your saying and agree. I noticed that a while ago and now I'm wondering when was the last time a Memphis team had over a 100 a game avg. Memphis Avg 104 at Home Avg 108 as a 10 point or more favorite. My have spoken a little to soon before doing my DD
 
tuck321 said:
Been distracted by college basketball. Locked in UAB plus 11.5
May have to bet against Belmont
Also U Conn first half vs Cinn is a mandatory Gilmo play
Click to expand...


Take a look at Under #570 SF/BYU 160.5 is long gone 159.5 is the lowest point I wouldn't play it any lower. 159.5 can be found.
 
Paulie The Vig said:
I understand what your saying and agree. I noticed that a while ago and now I'm wondering when was the last time a Memphis team had over a 100 a game avg. Memphis Avg 104 at Home Avg 108 as a 10 point or more favorite. My have spoken a little to soon before doing my DD
Click to expand...

They should be favored to win the west and championship ..
 
Pacers up by 30
bucks up by almost 30
grizz ???
now 30

bulls by 28???
 
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