Thur-Sun Milleb...

[CollegeKingRex]

Think I liked doing this shit all in one thread a bit better than starting a new one every day. So starting on Monday, I'll post all plays for the week in one thread. Will allow both y'all and me to track my weekly progress as well.

After four days (three betting ones) of the battle, it reads 2-3 and -2.45 units.

Philly pitcher is a mixed bag, Reds pitcher is a top prospect who misses spots. Wind blowing out in a day game at the Great OVER, ump won't hurt me.

The play: Philly/Reds OVER 8.5 +105 for 2u.

All plays will be for 2, posting rest momentarily...

:cheers:

 

[CollegeKingRex]

Skip Fla/Wash

Doyers outscored their first opponent 25-0 over three games. I'll take a stab at them plus-money assuming Wood reverts to Atlanta form, not last summer's LA form. Peavler might well struggle in a day game against this offense.

The play: Doyers +111 for 2u

Cubs/Ariz I will wait out the ump and hopefully some UNDER bets for a better price. Assuming the roof is open, it's katy-bar-the-door, total should be 10.3 ish

Ball travels much better in the daytime in Oakland, even though temps will be just in the 60s. Getaway day also tempers some enthusiasm but these No. 4 pitchers are no better than No. 4's on their best days. Runs galore.

The play: CWS/Oak OVER 8.5 even for 2u.

Where did they get this price on Fiers? The Fun Bunch will run out of fun this year on their way to a .500 season, despite how good their middle infield looks. Pitching has been figured out and good offensive teams will exploit it.

The play: Jankees -102 for 2u

Anti-Joe Kelly, and I like the progress Salazar made last season as probably Cleveland's best pitcher.

The play: Cleveland -1 run +117 for 2u

Skip Min/Bal, no opinion.

Rangers a dog against Santiago? Where do I sign up. Porn Star Holland should be healthy for the first time in two years.

The play: Tejas +107 for 2u

Should be all; GL today!

:shake:

 

[DwightS]

You really love going against the Pokers :cheers3:

 

[Grind_4_Mine]

GL Rexy :cheers3:

 

[Ahambone]

Nice read on PHI/CIN!

 

[CollegeKingRex]

2-3 ayer, now 4-6 and -4.45 on the season.

Total too high in Flushing Meadows (side too but that's for another day). deGrom should have little trouble mowing down this Franco-less lineup. Nauert won't hurt. Eickhoff is capable of spinning a capable effort against the soft-hitting Metropolitans.

The play: Mets UNDER 7 +110 for 2u

Rest coming shortly

 

[CollegeKingRex]

Friars with no runs through 3 games and now they want to total the game 11. With the ML price in the low-30s, that means they're basically saying Colorado will win the game 5.6 to 5.1. How? Mid-60s in Denver but whatever wind there is will be blowing in. Arizona's pitchers are dreadful and I expect Rea and the Friars to be at least able to hold the Rockies to 5 or so. And how are they gonna get more than 4? Waiting on ump there, but un 11-115 seems like a layup.

A lean to Braves UNDER but only at 7.5 -110 or better, and we'll need to see who is calling balls and strikes there.

Someone was trying to be cute and bet the Cubs/Snakes UNDER this morning. No shot that it can be real. Cedarstrom behind the dish with back-end starters and an open roof? LMAO

The play: Cubs/Zona OVER 9 +103 for 4 units!

Looking at Tampa Bay but want to see how much more that one creeps down. Wind blowing out to right probably shouldn't hurt Archer, but he was feast or famine against the Jays. With a temp near 50 and some wind, might sit this one. Will monitor the line.

Toronto is a play. Stroman is better than Kelly, and Toronto is far superior to Boston, especially indoors.

The play: Jays -1 -112 for 2u

Lean KC small at -1 run but will have to see it closer to even money before i pull the trigger. Wind blowing left to right and in.

Wrong team favored in Anaheim; maybe the Angels are better than I thought and I did actually see Pujols try to run to first last night, which is an improvement for sure from what I saw in the spring. But Griffin, assuming not too amped, is far superior to this Shoemaker, and Texas the better top-to-bottom offense.

The play: Rangers +122 for 1.5u

Not sure where this big movement on the Athletics came from, but their pitcher tonight didn't even make the Baseball Prospectus this year. Not good if you're trotting out a no name in the first week of the season. This is seattle's second-best pitcher behind Felix and he should have his way with the A's tonight. The game is trading alarmingly low in the exchange so I will wait until later, but a -1 run play is in order here.

GL tonight!

:shake:

 

[GWarner27]

Not sure how much wind matters in Denver

 

[CollegeKingRex]

Took a nice healthy beating yesterday and it could have been worse as I had leans on Seattle, the Reds and Doyers.

1-3 and -6.41, now 5-9 and -10.86. Gonna slow down as I have zero clue how that game in Phoenix could stay under with all of the balls being called (and thrown). Ray at one point was at 68 pitches, 35 balls. Sick.

Leaned UN 8 in DC but rained out, and it never got there.

Pokers and whoever else have pounded the Friars. Yesterday's breakout doesn't necessarily portend to more today. I leaned them at open (Col 60/10) but at current, it's a home side play.

The play: Colo -120 for 1.2u

Grienke is too cheap against the Cubs. He was supposedly sick on Monday so that surely contributed to a rocky start (pun not necessarily intended)

The play: Zona -106 for 1.5u.

Lean Dickey but nothing there.

Lean Det but want to see Fat Man go once before I rush to a decision about him.

Lean Tampa as Wright is a bottom-five pitcher in baseball. But they priced this one pretty good with the movers coming on the fave at the bad open.

Wrong side favored in Anaheim again. I guess I will just bet agianst the Angels every day, not sure. These prices baffle me.

The play:Tejas +108 for 1.5u

Seattle a little cheap but I'm looking for a quarter or less to consider it; if I were running good I would lay the 27 but not now.

Who is Doug Fister to lay this price to anyone? He couldn't be favored that much if he were pitching for the AL All-Stars against Milwaukee, let alone against the Brewer de-facto ace. More sadness for the Fun Bunch and the pokers, who seem hell bent on backing them.

THe play: Beermen +135 for 1.7u

GL today!

:shake:

 

[tuck321]

Fister is the one who lost his velocity?

 

[CollegeKingRex]

Never had any to begin with. Smoke-and-mirrors (90.5) in 2014 but a .262 BABIP fueled a 16-6 record. Fastball was never getting higher than 86 once batters started seeing him for the third time last season (88.9 was speed on fastball, down 1.6 from 2014). He hit free agency one year too late.

 

[CollegeKingRex]

1-3 and -6.41, now 6-12 and -14.03. I might as well just do round robins with these sucker sides I'm losing with and liking again today. All of this has wrecked an otherwise great week in college hoops, college hockey, Nuba, goff and soccer. Jesus H Christ.

Stl -1.5 +106 for 2u. Waino against who?

Diego +128 for 1.5u. Let's see if they keep hitting. I'm guessing I'm the cooler and Bettis will shut them down.

Tampons -1.5 +150 for 2u. Odorizzi vs. Worley, and this is the price?

KC -1.5 +138 for 1.5u. Volquez and Nolasco and this is the price?

Seattle -1.5 +145 for 2u. King Felix should get some defensive help and chop down the walks this time. Oakland's guy is far from impressive.

Detroit +104 for 1.5u. Zoolander looks like he's finally figured out how to pitch at a diminished velocity, and the Tigers have had a solid week all in all. Tanaka won't like pitching in this cold weather again, as he seemed uncomfortable in his first start as well.

GL to all. Passing totals (leaned Pit OV, Phi OV, KC UN)...

 

[RetroVK]

gl today