NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Chicago Bulls
Tuesday, March 16, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at United Center in Chicago, Illinois
Wendell Carter Jr.
The key to Chicago’s defense is Wendell Carter Jr, which he anchors with strong rim protection.
You won’t find evidence of Carter Jr.’s ability in his shot-blocking numbers.
But he uses nimble footwork to stay in front of opponents even from behind the perimeter.
He’ll utilize his 7’5 wingspan to deter shots at the basket.
Since he returned from injury, Chicago is allowing the fifth-lowest percentage of field goal attempts within five feet of the basket.
Thunder Offense vs. Bull Defense
With Carter Jr. behind them, Bull defenders can and want to guard more aggressively along the perimeter.
They know that they have their defensive anchor who can help clean up their mistakes at the basket.
In fact, they want to induce the opponent to try to challenge Carter Jr. at the basket.
With its defensive strategy, Chicago excels at running opponents off of the three-point line.
The Bulls rank ninth in limiting opposing three-point attempts and third in limiting opponent three-point makes.
Since Carter Jr.’s return, the Bulls allow allow by far the most field goal attempts within five feet of the basket where they are strongest defensively.
Offensively, the thing about Oklahoma City is that it is less willing to attack the basket where it is less efficient than most teams.
Instead, the Thunder attempt the seventh-most three-pointers per game, which plays into the hands of Chicago’s defense.
They are filled with guys who want to shoot threes, but will more likely have to contend with Carter Jr. at the rim.
Even stretching the floor doesn’t help against the Bull defense, as this unit showed when it held Toronto with its stretch-five to 37.8 percent field-goal efficiency inside the arc.
Al Horford, though, who could have stretched the floor effectively for the Thunder, has been ruled ‘out’ for this game. He is the team’s second-leading scorers.
Other leading Thunder scorers — five other Oklahoma City players overall — are listed as ‘questionable.’
Bull Offense vs. Thunder Defense
On offensive, Chicago is known for its motion offense principles.
Relentless ball movement, crisp passing, and continuous ball-screen-setting help shift the defense.
With the defense shifted, more driving lanes open up for Bull players to attack the basket and at least draw fouls.
Given its proclivity to attack inside, Chicago attempts the ninth-most field goal attempts within five feet of the basket.
One key player is Coby White, who is known for his speed off the dribble.
He and his teammates will thrive against a Thunder defense that misses meaningful rim protection as it ranks 26th in block rate and allows the fourth-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat
Tuesday, March 16, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at AmericanAirlines Arena in Miami, Florida
Trends
Both teams are trending towards an “under” play.
Whereas Cleveland has scored 82 points in both of its last two games, Miami has surrendered fewer than 100 points in five of its last six games.
So the “under” has hit in five of Miami’s last six games and in both of Cleveland’s last games.
Cavalier Offense vs. Heat Defense
Part of the reason why Cleveland is struggling to score is the recent inefficiency of point guard Collin Sexton.
Sexton is an important part of the Cavaliers’ guard-centered offense.
But Atlanta, in its last game, showed that it can limit him without relying on its weak and limited defender, counterpart Trae Young.
Good team defense is all that is needed and Miami, which ranks third in limiting opposing scoring, enjoys good team defense.
With Sexton but others as well, Cleveland will primarily want to attack the basket.
After all, even when Sexton happens to be making shots, the Cavaliers rank last in the NBA in three-pointers made per game.
The Cavs’ one-dimensionality on offense is problematic against a Heat defense that ranks seventh in limiting opposing field goal efficiency within five feet of the basket.
Miami enjoys a lot of individuals who ably keep opposing players in front of them in order to keep them from achieving an easy path to the basket.
This versatility explains Miami’s proclivity to switch on ball-screens. Center Bam Adebayo, for example, loves to switch and ably stays in front of opponents in isolation.
Even guards will be flummoxed by Adebayo’s activity as a defender.
Heat Offense vs. Cavalier Defense
Center Andre Drummond’s absence does not bother me.
Even without him, Cleveland owns the second-best defense within five feet of the basket, as measured by opposing field goal percentage.
It’s way more important to me that Larry Nance Jr. is back in the lineup, that he’s back healthy.
On a per possession bassi, the Cavaliers are stronger with Nance Jr., who is a disruptive force on the defensive end, whose ability to accrue steals helps undercut the opponent’s offensive rhythm.
With him, Cleveland ably limits opposing three-point attempts, thus forcing teams inside to contend with its higher-level defense in front of the basket.
The way to score against Cleveland is particularly in transition. But the Heat don’t like to run much.
Confining themselves to the half-court, Miami’s relatively three-point-dependent offense will be hard-pressed to find good looks tonight.
Parlay Verdict
Even if every possibly injured Thunder player were healthy, Chicago would still cover the spread with its strength in guarding the basket, defending the perimeter, and attacking inside.
Cleveland’s offensive ceiling is limited by its one-dimensionality, which will not bother Miami’s strong interior defense. On defense, Cleveland can replicate the latter while adding higher-level perimeter defense with Nance Jr., which will be especially comfortable in a half-court game.
Best Bet: Parlay Bulls -5.5 at -108 & Thunder/Heat Under at Heritage (Odds TBA)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Chicago Bulls
Tuesday, March 16, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at United Center in Chicago, Illinois
Wendell Carter Jr.
The key to Chicago’s defense is Wendell Carter Jr, which he anchors with strong rim protection.
You won’t find evidence of Carter Jr.’s ability in his shot-blocking numbers.
But he uses nimble footwork to stay in front of opponents even from behind the perimeter.
He’ll utilize his 7’5 wingspan to deter shots at the basket.
Since he returned from injury, Chicago is allowing the fifth-lowest percentage of field goal attempts within five feet of the basket.
Thunder Offense vs. Bull Defense
With Carter Jr. behind them, Bull defenders can and want to guard more aggressively along the perimeter.
They know that they have their defensive anchor who can help clean up their mistakes at the basket.
In fact, they want to induce the opponent to try to challenge Carter Jr. at the basket.
With its defensive strategy, Chicago excels at running opponents off of the three-point line.
The Bulls rank ninth in limiting opposing three-point attempts and third in limiting opponent three-point makes.
Since Carter Jr.’s return, the Bulls allow allow by far the most field goal attempts within five feet of the basket where they are strongest defensively.
Offensively, the thing about Oklahoma City is that it is less willing to attack the basket where it is less efficient than most teams.
Instead, the Thunder attempt the seventh-most three-pointers per game, which plays into the hands of Chicago’s defense.
They are filled with guys who want to shoot threes, but will more likely have to contend with Carter Jr. at the rim.
Even stretching the floor doesn’t help against the Bull defense, as this unit showed when it held Toronto with its stretch-five to 37.8 percent field-goal efficiency inside the arc.
Al Horford, though, who could have stretched the floor effectively for the Thunder, has been ruled ‘out’ for this game. He is the team’s second-leading scorers.
Other leading Thunder scorers — five other Oklahoma City players overall — are listed as ‘questionable.’
Bull Offense vs. Thunder Defense
On offensive, Chicago is known for its motion offense principles.
Relentless ball movement, crisp passing, and continuous ball-screen-setting help shift the defense.
With the defense shifted, more driving lanes open up for Bull players to attack the basket and at least draw fouls.
Given its proclivity to attack inside, Chicago attempts the ninth-most field goal attempts within five feet of the basket.
One key player is Coby White, who is known for his speed off the dribble.
He and his teammates will thrive against a Thunder defense that misses meaningful rim protection as it ranks 26th in block rate and allows the fourth-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat
Tuesday, March 16, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET at AmericanAirlines Arena in Miami, Florida
Trends
Both teams are trending towards an “under” play.
Whereas Cleveland has scored 82 points in both of its last two games, Miami has surrendered fewer than 100 points in five of its last six games.
So the “under” has hit in five of Miami’s last six games and in both of Cleveland’s last games.
Cavalier Offense vs. Heat Defense
Part of the reason why Cleveland is struggling to score is the recent inefficiency of point guard Collin Sexton.
Sexton is an important part of the Cavaliers’ guard-centered offense.
But Atlanta, in its last game, showed that it can limit him without relying on its weak and limited defender, counterpart Trae Young.
Good team defense is all that is needed and Miami, which ranks third in limiting opposing scoring, enjoys good team defense.
With Sexton but others as well, Cleveland will primarily want to attack the basket.
After all, even when Sexton happens to be making shots, the Cavaliers rank last in the NBA in three-pointers made per game.
The Cavs’ one-dimensionality on offense is problematic against a Heat defense that ranks seventh in limiting opposing field goal efficiency within five feet of the basket.
Miami enjoys a lot of individuals who ably keep opposing players in front of them in order to keep them from achieving an easy path to the basket.
This versatility explains Miami’s proclivity to switch on ball-screens. Center Bam Adebayo, for example, loves to switch and ably stays in front of opponents in isolation.
Even guards will be flummoxed by Adebayo’s activity as a defender.
Heat Offense vs. Cavalier Defense
Center Andre Drummond’s absence does not bother me.
Even without him, Cleveland owns the second-best defense within five feet of the basket, as measured by opposing field goal percentage.
It’s way more important to me that Larry Nance Jr. is back in the lineup, that he’s back healthy.
On a per possession bassi, the Cavaliers are stronger with Nance Jr., who is a disruptive force on the defensive end, whose ability to accrue steals helps undercut the opponent’s offensive rhythm.
With him, Cleveland ably limits opposing three-point attempts, thus forcing teams inside to contend with its higher-level defense in front of the basket.
The way to score against Cleveland is particularly in transition. But the Heat don’t like to run much.
Confining themselves to the half-court, Miami’s relatively three-point-dependent offense will be hard-pressed to find good looks tonight.
Parlay Verdict
Even if every possibly injured Thunder player were healthy, Chicago would still cover the spread with its strength in guarding the basket, defending the perimeter, and attacking inside.
Cleveland’s offensive ceiling is limited by its one-dimensionality, which will not bother Miami’s strong interior defense. On defense, Cleveland can replicate the latter while adding higher-level perimeter defense with Nance Jr., which will be especially comfortable in a half-court game.
Best Bet: Parlay Bulls -5.5 at -108 & Thunder/Heat Under at Heritage (Odds TBA)
