Best NFL Win Total Bets
Cincinnati Bengals
Over/Under 5.5 Wins
Going Off-Script & Tight Windows
Joe Burrow’s ability to improvise shows that he doesn’t need Joe Brady to succeed.
PFF ranked him as college football’s best quarterback under pressure, in which scenario he completed 66.4 percent of his passes.
He’s poised in the pocket where he doesn’t require much time because he throws masterly with anticipation.
But he’s also able to elude pressure with his legs. He makes things happen when the play breaks down by focusing his eyes downfield.
Moreover, did not need a scheme that created wide-open receivers for him because he’s so accurate.
On tight-window passes, Burrow threw 21 touchdowns, led college quarterbacks with a 67 percent adjusted completion percentage, and easily had PFF’s highest grade.
Wide Receivers
His coaches are going to tailor their playbook to Burrow’s strengths. They’ve had several months to do this and they have the necessary personnel.
Tyler Boyd will be his Justin Jefferson, Burrow’s beloved slot target. Last year from the slot, Boyd ranked seventh in receiving yards and averaged 13.8 YPC.
With A.J. Green healthy, defenses can't focus too much on Boyd. Since 2016, Green has the best passer rating in tight-window throws.
When he was at LSU, Burrow loved to find a rhythm by hitting teammates on intermediate routes. Boyd and Green will create continuity in this respect.
More room will be found underneath for Boyd and Green because of John Ross’s speed and vertical ability. Ross’s downfield potential — he averaged 18.1 YPC last year — makes him comparable to Ja’Marr Chase.
Running Backs
Burrow loved throwing to the shifty Clyde Edwards-Helaire in space. He was a big reason why 44 percent of Burrow’s pass attempts went for 0-9 yards.
Two very capable Bengal pass-catchers out of the backfield are Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard.
Bernard averages 56 targets per year. Mixon, too, reliably accumulates chunk plays as a patch-casser.
Mixon’s rushing averages skyrocketed in November and December after Zac Taylor switched his offensive line scheme to more power and pulling.
He averaged 4.4 YPC in November and 4.7 YPC in December.
With the Bengals healthier in this area — they had two starting offensive linemen go down before the season even started last year — Burrow will enjoy more run support.
Bengals Defense
Cincinnati’s defense won’t be as bad as last year’s.
Its defensive line is anchored by multiple-time Pro Bowlers Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap. They will be fresher with greater depth at this position.
Also the secondary will improve with additions like Mackensie Alexander, who in many weeks last season was PFF’s highest-graded slot corner.
His positive coverage and remarkably sure tackling will pair well with new safety Vonn Bell’s track record for making big plays.
Schedule
Asking the Bengals to win at least four more games than they did last year might seem like a big ask.
But recall that the Bengals led in 12 of their games. Statistically speaking, it was extraordinarily improbable that they lose so many one-score games (all eight) and games in which they led at some point. Close-game variance will work in their favor this year.
Even without any variance, there are many very beatable opponents on Cincinnati’s schedule.
Jacksonville (see my article on Jacksonville this season), Washington, New York Giants, and Miami will be the Bengals’ easiest opponents.
They get the Titans at home. I am down on the Titans for reasons that I will explain later.
They can beat either Indianapolis, who’s counting on an aging Philip Rivers at quarterback, or Houston, who will miss DeAndre Hopkins at wide receiver.
Both teams ranked 25th or worse in opposing pass rating last year and didn’t substantially improve their secondary over the offseason.
While Xavier Rhodes is one proven cornerback, he’ll have to transition to an Indianapolis scheme that is foreign to the one he was used to in Minnesota.
We’re at six wins. With their aggressive offseason including more weapons in the box, like Vonn Bell, and with the offense possessing the ball more and building larger leads, the Bengals may beat the Chargers with their limited, necessarily run-focused offense.
Best Bet: Over 5.5 Wins (-140) With BetOnline
Cleveland Browns
Over/Under 8.5 Wins
Moving On
Last year, the Browns responded miserably to the absurd level of media hype.
Secondly, Baker Mayfield experienced a very typical regression. Statistically speaking, quarterbacks who thrive as a rookie are likely to see in the following year a substantial drop in quarterback rating.
Browns Offense
Without the same pressure and expectations suffocating Cleveland, I foresee Baker superseding his rookie-year numbers.
As a rookie, he was successful on a statistically historical level for rookies.
What’s new, and good, this year is that he doesn’t have to do as much. His offense is still loaded with Nick Chubb at running back, Odell Beckham Jr and Jarvis Landry at wide receiver plus a bevy of pass-catching tight ends.
Last year, Cleveland’s regression at offensive line really hurt it.’
But PFF ranks the Browns’ offensive line as most improved for good reason.
One significant signing was Jack Conklin, who was a high-graded run-blocker for Tennessee last year.
Defense
With a full year both from Myles Garrett and Olivier Vernon, the Browns will have one of the NFL’s top pass rushes.
Garrett achieved 10 sacks last year in 10 games. Vernon, too, had his season cut short. But the former All-Pro second-teamer can re-achieve double-digit sacks.
Offenses cannot focus on containing both players. In a pass-heavy league, Cleveland’s pass rush will be difference-making.
Vernon and Garrett also make life easier for Cleveland’s secondary, which is largely a product of year-long rebuilding with high draft picks like Pro Bowler Denzel Ward.
Schedule
Cleveland will beat: the Bengals at least once, Washington, the Raiders, Jaguars, the Giants, and the Jets. These are six easy wins.
The Texans, the Titans, and the Colts are all extremely beatable for this team.
Houston lacks the offensive firepower, especially without Hopkins, the depth of pass rush, and the quality in its low-ranked secondary to keep up.
Indianapolis rivals Houston in both respects with an aging and grossly unspectacular Rivers at quarterback.
The Browns can also take one game from rival Pittsburgh even if Big Ben stays healthy.
Best Bet: Browns Over 8.5 Wins (-120) with BetOnline
Tennessee Titans
Over/Under 8.5 Wins
Ryan Tannehill
I look to fade quarterbacks who are coming off of fresh and major contracts. A lot of examples in history substantiate this strategy.
The most famous example is Joe Flacco after Baltimore won a Super Bowl in 2013. But even recently, Jared Goff had his worst season since his rookie season after signing a big contract extension.
Remember that the Titans were a 2-4 team before Tannehill worked his magic. Without his success, the Titans are a losing team.
Defense
Tennessee lost some significant pieces during the offseason.
One is staple defensive tackle Jurrell Casey. He led the team multiple times in sacks during multiple Pro Bowl campaigns.
Logan Ryan had close to an All-Pro-caliber season and is no longer with the team.
The Titans have counted on a strong secondary to make up for their lack of pass rush. So Ryan’s loss will be felt in Tennessee’s pass defense especially without sack support from Casey.
Any hype surrounding Vic Beasley derives purely from his performance back in 2016.
He will not help Tennessee improve from last year’s rank of 30th in pressure rate and he will continue struggling to secure outside containment.
Schedule
I think the Titans can certainly beat Jacksonville twice and split against both Houston and Indianapolis.
But five more wins will be too hard to come by given the number of playoff contenders on their schedule.
Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Baltimore, Green Bay, and Cleveland will be losses.
Chicago remains stacked with Pro Bowlers and playmakers on all three levels of its defense. They have the personnel to generate the big plays that they became famous for two years ago.
On offense, Nick Foles ensures some level of competency in the passing attack.
Denver, too, is similarly strong defensively after Vic Fangio’s arrival required a period of adjustment. Aggressive free agency also helped. Casey adds depth to an already solid defensive line and recent comments indicate that he will play very angry against the Titans.
A.J. Bouye can also return to Pro Bowl form in new scenery.
For reasons stated, I think the Bengals will win beat Tennessee.
Also, I am merely assuming for argument’s that Tennessee beats both Houston and Indianapolis one time.
Best Bet: Under 8.5 Wins (+105) with BetOnline
Cincinnati Bengals
Over/Under 5.5 Wins
Going Off-Script & Tight Windows
Joe Burrow’s ability to improvise shows that he doesn’t need Joe Brady to succeed.
PFF ranked him as college football’s best quarterback under pressure, in which scenario he completed 66.4 percent of his passes.
He’s poised in the pocket where he doesn’t require much time because he throws masterly with anticipation.
But he’s also able to elude pressure with his legs. He makes things happen when the play breaks down by focusing his eyes downfield.
Moreover, did not need a scheme that created wide-open receivers for him because he’s so accurate.
On tight-window passes, Burrow threw 21 touchdowns, led college quarterbacks with a 67 percent adjusted completion percentage, and easily had PFF’s highest grade.
Wide Receivers
His coaches are going to tailor their playbook to Burrow’s strengths. They’ve had several months to do this and they have the necessary personnel.
Tyler Boyd will be his Justin Jefferson, Burrow’s beloved slot target. Last year from the slot, Boyd ranked seventh in receiving yards and averaged 13.8 YPC.
With A.J. Green healthy, defenses can't focus too much on Boyd. Since 2016, Green has the best passer rating in tight-window throws.
When he was at LSU, Burrow loved to find a rhythm by hitting teammates on intermediate routes. Boyd and Green will create continuity in this respect.
More room will be found underneath for Boyd and Green because of John Ross’s speed and vertical ability. Ross’s downfield potential — he averaged 18.1 YPC last year — makes him comparable to Ja’Marr Chase.
Running Backs
Burrow loved throwing to the shifty Clyde Edwards-Helaire in space. He was a big reason why 44 percent of Burrow’s pass attempts went for 0-9 yards.
Two very capable Bengal pass-catchers out of the backfield are Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard.
Bernard averages 56 targets per year. Mixon, too, reliably accumulates chunk plays as a patch-casser.
Mixon’s rushing averages skyrocketed in November and December after Zac Taylor switched his offensive line scheme to more power and pulling.
He averaged 4.4 YPC in November and 4.7 YPC in December.
With the Bengals healthier in this area — they had two starting offensive linemen go down before the season even started last year — Burrow will enjoy more run support.
Bengals Defense
Cincinnati’s defense won’t be as bad as last year’s.
Its defensive line is anchored by multiple-time Pro Bowlers Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap. They will be fresher with greater depth at this position.
Also the secondary will improve with additions like Mackensie Alexander, who in many weeks last season was PFF’s highest-graded slot corner.
His positive coverage and remarkably sure tackling will pair well with new safety Vonn Bell’s track record for making big plays.
Schedule
Asking the Bengals to win at least four more games than they did last year might seem like a big ask.
But recall that the Bengals led in 12 of their games. Statistically speaking, it was extraordinarily improbable that they lose so many one-score games (all eight) and games in which they led at some point. Close-game variance will work in their favor this year.
Even without any variance, there are many very beatable opponents on Cincinnati’s schedule.
Jacksonville (see my article on Jacksonville this season), Washington, New York Giants, and Miami will be the Bengals’ easiest opponents.
They get the Titans at home. I am down on the Titans for reasons that I will explain later.
They can beat either Indianapolis, who’s counting on an aging Philip Rivers at quarterback, or Houston, who will miss DeAndre Hopkins at wide receiver.
Both teams ranked 25th or worse in opposing pass rating last year and didn’t substantially improve their secondary over the offseason.
While Xavier Rhodes is one proven cornerback, he’ll have to transition to an Indianapolis scheme that is foreign to the one he was used to in Minnesota.
We’re at six wins. With their aggressive offseason including more weapons in the box, like Vonn Bell, and with the offense possessing the ball more and building larger leads, the Bengals may beat the Chargers with their limited, necessarily run-focused offense.
Best Bet: Over 5.5 Wins (-140) With BetOnline
Cleveland Browns
Over/Under 8.5 Wins
Moving On
Last year, the Browns responded miserably to the absurd level of media hype.
Secondly, Baker Mayfield experienced a very typical regression. Statistically speaking, quarterbacks who thrive as a rookie are likely to see in the following year a substantial drop in quarterback rating.
Browns Offense
Without the same pressure and expectations suffocating Cleveland, I foresee Baker superseding his rookie-year numbers.
As a rookie, he was successful on a statistically historical level for rookies.
What’s new, and good, this year is that he doesn’t have to do as much. His offense is still loaded with Nick Chubb at running back, Odell Beckham Jr and Jarvis Landry at wide receiver plus a bevy of pass-catching tight ends.
Last year, Cleveland’s regression at offensive line really hurt it.’
But PFF ranks the Browns’ offensive line as most improved for good reason.
One significant signing was Jack Conklin, who was a high-graded run-blocker for Tennessee last year.
Defense
With a full year both from Myles Garrett and Olivier Vernon, the Browns will have one of the NFL’s top pass rushes.
Garrett achieved 10 sacks last year in 10 games. Vernon, too, had his season cut short. But the former All-Pro second-teamer can re-achieve double-digit sacks.
Offenses cannot focus on containing both players. In a pass-heavy league, Cleveland’s pass rush will be difference-making.
Vernon and Garrett also make life easier for Cleveland’s secondary, which is largely a product of year-long rebuilding with high draft picks like Pro Bowler Denzel Ward.
Schedule
Cleveland will beat: the Bengals at least once, Washington, the Raiders, Jaguars, the Giants, and the Jets. These are six easy wins.
The Texans, the Titans, and the Colts are all extremely beatable for this team.
Houston lacks the offensive firepower, especially without Hopkins, the depth of pass rush, and the quality in its low-ranked secondary to keep up.
Indianapolis rivals Houston in both respects with an aging and grossly unspectacular Rivers at quarterback.
The Browns can also take one game from rival Pittsburgh even if Big Ben stays healthy.
Best Bet: Browns Over 8.5 Wins (-120) with BetOnline
Tennessee Titans
Over/Under 8.5 Wins
Ryan Tannehill
I look to fade quarterbacks who are coming off of fresh and major contracts. A lot of examples in history substantiate this strategy.
The most famous example is Joe Flacco after Baltimore won a Super Bowl in 2013. But even recently, Jared Goff had his worst season since his rookie season after signing a big contract extension.
Remember that the Titans were a 2-4 team before Tannehill worked his magic. Without his success, the Titans are a losing team.
Defense
Tennessee lost some significant pieces during the offseason.
One is staple defensive tackle Jurrell Casey. He led the team multiple times in sacks during multiple Pro Bowl campaigns.
Logan Ryan had close to an All-Pro-caliber season and is no longer with the team.
The Titans have counted on a strong secondary to make up for their lack of pass rush. So Ryan’s loss will be felt in Tennessee’s pass defense especially without sack support from Casey.
Any hype surrounding Vic Beasley derives purely from his performance back in 2016.
He will not help Tennessee improve from last year’s rank of 30th in pressure rate and he will continue struggling to secure outside containment.
Schedule
I think the Titans can certainly beat Jacksonville twice and split against both Houston and Indianapolis.
But five more wins will be too hard to come by given the number of playoff contenders on their schedule.
Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Baltimore, Green Bay, and Cleveland will be losses.
Chicago remains stacked with Pro Bowlers and playmakers on all three levels of its defense. They have the personnel to generate the big plays that they became famous for two years ago.
On offense, Nick Foles ensures some level of competency in the passing attack.
Denver, too, is similarly strong defensively after Vic Fangio’s arrival required a period of adjustment. Aggressive free agency also helped. Casey adds depth to an already solid defensive line and recent comments indicate that he will play very angry against the Titans.
A.J. Bouye can also return to Pro Bowl form in new scenery.
For reasons stated, I think the Bengals will win beat Tennessee.
Also, I am merely assuming for argument’s that Tennessee beats both Houston and Indianapolis one time.
Best Bet: Under 8.5 Wins (+105) with BetOnline
