Daily Upset Alert: MLB Underdog Picks
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
Tuesday, April 1, 2021 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
Don’t Worry About Madison Bumgarner
There is a tremendous amount of betting value available to the Diamondbacks in this game for two reasons: one reason is the preseason hype that San Diego is receiving.
A second reason is Arizona starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner performed awfully last year. So recency bias may misguide bettors to underrate him this year.
I don’t want to simply say that we should forget last season because of how unusual it was.
But for Bumgarner, last season’s unusualness affected his training regimen. His Spring Training started out great. But then the shutdown happened.
He completely lost his positive form as evident in, among other things, the stark reduction of his fastball velocity.
2021 promises to be a bounce-back season for Bumgarner, though, who has the form and extra motivation to reestablish himself as a pitcher worthy of starting on Opening Day.
His career opposing slugging rate against Padre batters is inflated by the number of home runs that he allowed to them last season.
Yet Padre batters are still only hitting .208 against him.
Among those Padre batters, two starters will be absent today due to injury: catcher Austin Nola and center fielder Trent Grisham.
Yu Darvish
Oddsmakers fail to account for the streak of bad starts in San Diego starter Yu Darvish’s season-opening performances.
Darvish has yielded an ERA higher than 6.00 in three of his last four first starts of the season and an ERA over 5.00 in all four of his last first starts.
Moreover, his numbers are terrible against active Diamondback batters, many of whom will get to see him from the left side today.
They hit .296 and slug .565 in 108 combined career at-bats against Darvish. Look out especially for lefty David Peralta, who is 4-for-7 (.571) with two homers in his career against Darvish.
Because of the price attached to Darvish today, you can take the underdog on the run-line.
Best Bet: Diamondbacks First-Half +.5 at +122 with Bookmaker
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies
Thursday, April 1, 2021 at 4:10 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Coors Field in Denver
Clayton Kershaw
The Dodgers are favored so heavily largely because future Hall-of-Famer Clayton Kershaw is on the mound.
Kershaw’s career success justifies the heavy chalk. But his current pitching form does not justify the chalk and that’s what we’re concerned with now: with how Kershaw looks now.
in Spring Training, Kershaw yielded a 10.22 ERA in 12.1 innings.
More concerning than his ERA is the reduction in his fastball velocity. In Spring Training, his fastball ranged from 88 to 90 mph.
German Marquez
Colorado’s starting pitcher today finds himself in a favorable situation: he has allowed one run or fewer in each of his last three season debuts.
Moreover, Marquez has grown past his prior struggles against the Dodgers. He’s allowed two runs or fewer in his last four starts against them.
Marquez’s success against Dodger batters stem from the increased variety in his pitching repertoire.
Dodger batters typically do well against fastballs. So with his reliance on his 96-mph-heater, Marquez didn’t match up well against Dodger hitters.
But he’s mixing in other pitches to the point where, last year, his fastball usage reached a career low for him.
Concentration
As an added bonus, we get to fade the defending champions. Three of the last four World Series defending champs have lost on Opening Day.
Sometimes, the concentration is missing because Opening Day involves a celebration of the prior season’s accomplishments.
Best Bet: Rockies First-Half +.5 at +116 with Bookmaker
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
Thursday, April 1, 2021 at 10:05 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim
Lucas Giolito
We get to fade White Sox starter Lucas Giolito as he finds himself in a spot that is unfavorable in two respects:
Career-wise, he’s worse at night, where his ERA is 5.05, compared to 3.22 in the daytime.
A similarly strong distinction exists between his readiness in March and April and his readiness in later months.
He is characteristically a slow starter, yielding a 6.70 career ERA in March and April.
Dexter Fowler will prove to be a positive addition to the Angel lineup tonight as he is one of three active Angel hitters who slug at least .800 in their career against Giolito.
Dylan Bundy
Dylan Bundy does not share Giolito’s proclivity for slow starts as Bundy has allowed one run or fewer in each of his season debuts against teams not named the Yankees.
Bundy will face a White Sox lineup that misses slugger Eloy Jimenez due to injury, but still faces pressure to live up to the hype that it’s receiving.
The sabermetrics love Bundy. His xERA (expected ERA), for example, reached a career low 3.06 last year, making him a strong candidate to produce a solid ERA this season.
He improved himself by throwing fewer fastballs and mixing more off-speed stuff into his arsenal. This improved variety will be useful as it allows him to miss more bats.
Based on their numbers last season against the fastball, the White Sox would also prefer to see more fastballs.
Best Bet: Angels First-Half ML at +100 with BetOnline
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
Tuesday, April 1, 2021 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
Don’t Worry About Madison Bumgarner
There is a tremendous amount of betting value available to the Diamondbacks in this game for two reasons: one reason is the preseason hype that San Diego is receiving.
A second reason is Arizona starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner performed awfully last year. So recency bias may misguide bettors to underrate him this year.
I don’t want to simply say that we should forget last season because of how unusual it was.
But for Bumgarner, last season’s unusualness affected his training regimen. His Spring Training started out great. But then the shutdown happened.
He completely lost his positive form as evident in, among other things, the stark reduction of his fastball velocity.
2021 promises to be a bounce-back season for Bumgarner, though, who has the form and extra motivation to reestablish himself as a pitcher worthy of starting on Opening Day.
His career opposing slugging rate against Padre batters is inflated by the number of home runs that he allowed to them last season.
Yet Padre batters are still only hitting .208 against him.
Among those Padre batters, two starters will be absent today due to injury: catcher Austin Nola and center fielder Trent Grisham.
Yu Darvish
Oddsmakers fail to account for the streak of bad starts in San Diego starter Yu Darvish’s season-opening performances.
Darvish has yielded an ERA higher than 6.00 in three of his last four first starts of the season and an ERA over 5.00 in all four of his last first starts.
Moreover, his numbers are terrible against active Diamondback batters, many of whom will get to see him from the left side today.
They hit .296 and slug .565 in 108 combined career at-bats against Darvish. Look out especially for lefty David Peralta, who is 4-for-7 (.571) with two homers in his career against Darvish.
Because of the price attached to Darvish today, you can take the underdog on the run-line.
Best Bet: Diamondbacks First-Half +.5 at +122 with Bookmaker
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies
Thursday, April 1, 2021 at 4:10 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Coors Field in Denver
Clayton Kershaw
The Dodgers are favored so heavily largely because future Hall-of-Famer Clayton Kershaw is on the mound.
Kershaw’s career success justifies the heavy chalk. But his current pitching form does not justify the chalk and that’s what we’re concerned with now: with how Kershaw looks now.
in Spring Training, Kershaw yielded a 10.22 ERA in 12.1 innings.
More concerning than his ERA is the reduction in his fastball velocity. In Spring Training, his fastball ranged from 88 to 90 mph.
German Marquez
Colorado’s starting pitcher today finds himself in a favorable situation: he has allowed one run or fewer in each of his last three season debuts.
Moreover, Marquez has grown past his prior struggles against the Dodgers. He’s allowed two runs or fewer in his last four starts against them.
Marquez’s success against Dodger batters stem from the increased variety in his pitching repertoire.
Dodger batters typically do well against fastballs. So with his reliance on his 96-mph-heater, Marquez didn’t match up well against Dodger hitters.
But he’s mixing in other pitches to the point where, last year, his fastball usage reached a career low for him.
Concentration
As an added bonus, we get to fade the defending champions. Three of the last four World Series defending champs have lost on Opening Day.
Sometimes, the concentration is missing because Opening Day involves a celebration of the prior season’s accomplishments.
Best Bet: Rockies First-Half +.5 at +116 with Bookmaker
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
Thursday, April 1, 2021 at 10:05 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim
Lucas Giolito
We get to fade White Sox starter Lucas Giolito as he finds himself in a spot that is unfavorable in two respects:
Career-wise, he’s worse at night, where his ERA is 5.05, compared to 3.22 in the daytime.
A similarly strong distinction exists between his readiness in March and April and his readiness in later months.
He is characteristically a slow starter, yielding a 6.70 career ERA in March and April.
Dexter Fowler will prove to be a positive addition to the Angel lineup tonight as he is one of three active Angel hitters who slug at least .800 in their career against Giolito.
Dylan Bundy
Dylan Bundy does not share Giolito’s proclivity for slow starts as Bundy has allowed one run or fewer in each of his season debuts against teams not named the Yankees.
Bundy will face a White Sox lineup that misses slugger Eloy Jimenez due to injury, but still faces pressure to live up to the hype that it’s receiving.
The sabermetrics love Bundy. His xERA (expected ERA), for example, reached a career low 3.06 last year, making him a strong candidate to produce a solid ERA this season.
He improved himself by throwing fewer fastballs and mixing more off-speed stuff into his arsenal. This improved variety will be useful as it allows him to miss more bats.
Based on their numbers last season against the fastball, the White Sox would also prefer to see more fastballs.
Best Bet: Angels First-Half ML at +100 with BetOnline
but to be fair after a while you do express some measure of exasperation. Maybe i'll start one after the semester. When i'm home I can actually watch the Cards since i'll no longer be in freaking blackout territory!
