2024 NBA All-Star Three Point Contest Picks: Seven-Footers Can Shoot, Too
This competition will take place this Saturday, February 18. It will start after the skills challenge at approximately 8:45 p.m.
I will recommend investing in Lauri Markkanen.
With the odds priced so attractively, some bettors will be inclined to invest in multiple participants, so I will also highlight Tyrese Haliburton.
Format
Both the format and the participants have been established.
The format is more-or-less what you would expect, but there have been variations over time.
This year, you do have the traditional racks consisting in four normal balls, each of which is worth one point, and one "money" ball that is worth two points.
But you also have a fifth rack that consists entirely of "money" balls. Contestants will determine in which of five shooting locations they want to position this rack.
There will also be a three-point ball positioned in two deep shot locations. These two balls bring the total number of shots to 27.
Odds
As of Tuesday morning, BetOnline has Tyrese Haliburton favored at +450, although late last night he was at +500.
After Haliburton, Karl-Anthony Towns follows at +500, Malik Beasley at +550, Damian Lillard at +600, Trae Young at +600, Jalen Brunson at +650, Lauri Markkanen at +750, and Donovan Mitchell at +800.
Approach
Because this is obviously not your usual game, we need to have a thoughtful handicapping strategy.
The first step should be to figure out how to eliminate candidates.
The odds are priced so attractively and it is so hard to predict a winner because there are so many options that look appealing.
If we can come up with strong and reasonable criteria that a winner should satisfy, then we can eliminate the options who do not satisfy the criteria.
Criteria: Experience Counts
A winning three-point shooting contest will want to have experience.
Experience is clearly valuable because Beasley asked Lillard, his teammate on Milwaukee, for advice.
You might think it silly to ask for advice: is this contest really more complicated than just making shots?
But there is strategy in play for multiple reasons, including the fact that a lot of shots will be shot and players have limited endurance. Pacing matters, and experienced contestants will have a better idea of how to pace themselves.
Also, the placement of the rack consisting entirely in "money" balls is something that a player will want to be wise about selecting.
We can't say what exactly Beasley wanted to know from Lillard, but the fact is that Beasley's desire to seek Lillard's advice implies that the latter has an advantage for being more experienced.
Further Criteria: Shooting Prowess
The remaining criteria are self-evident: this is a three-point shooting contest, so players should be good shooters.
Because a lot of balls are getting shot, they should also be comfortable shooting a higher volume of shots.
So we will look for players who boast strong three-point shooting percentages while having a high volume of three-point shoots
History Matters, Too
Finally, we will acknowledge that repeat champions are rare. Players who have already won this contest will be eliminated from consideration unless they are truly special, like Steph Curry.
Eliminating Candidates
Karl-Anthony Towns and Damian Lillard
Towns won this contest in 2022, so it is statistically unlikely that he will do so again.
The same thought applies to Lillard, who won last year.
In fact, Lillard is even less likely to win. There has not been a back-to-back champion since Jason Kapono in 2007 and 2008.
The First-Year Participants
Because experience matters, we will rule out the first-year participants.
Brunson and Beasley are disadvantaged because this will be their first three-point contest.
Trae Young and Donovan Mitchell
I dislike Trae Young's chances because there are clearly better shooters in this competition.
His three-point shooting percentage this season, 37.7, is just not impressive.
Donovan Mitchell's 36.1 three-point percentage is even less impressive.
My Two Favorite Choices
Tyrese Haliburton
So far we have two remaining options, and I like both of them as investments, in case you want to put money down on two different players.
I'll start with my second-favorite remaining option, Tyrese Haliburton, a sharpshooter making 39.6 percent of his three-point attempts this season.
Haliburton will provide good proof that experience is valuable here.
Last year, he started off with a bang, amassing 31 points in the first round.
But he fizzled out and suffered a disappointing finish.
He is aware now that he should avoid talking trash. He will also improve his pacing.
Lauri Markkanen
My favorite pick here is Lauri Markkanen.
I find him thoroughly undervalued by oddsmakers because he has everything that you want in a three-point contestant.
He is a great shooter, making 40.6 percent of his three-point shots while attempting eight per game.
His February has been especially sizzling, as he's made 19 of his 39 three-point attempts so far.
Expect him to improve off last year's three-point contest performance in the largest way imaginable.
Best Bet: Lauri Markkanen at +750 with BetOnline
This competition will take place this Saturday, February 18. It will start after the skills challenge at approximately 8:45 p.m.
I will recommend investing in Lauri Markkanen.
With the odds priced so attractively, some bettors will be inclined to invest in multiple participants, so I will also highlight Tyrese Haliburton.
Format
Both the format and the participants have been established.
The format is more-or-less what you would expect, but there have been variations over time.
This year, you do have the traditional racks consisting in four normal balls, each of which is worth one point, and one "money" ball that is worth two points.
But you also have a fifth rack that consists entirely of "money" balls. Contestants will determine in which of five shooting locations they want to position this rack.
There will also be a three-point ball positioned in two deep shot locations. These two balls bring the total number of shots to 27.
Odds
As of Tuesday morning, BetOnline has Tyrese Haliburton favored at +450, although late last night he was at +500.
After Haliburton, Karl-Anthony Towns follows at +500, Malik Beasley at +550, Damian Lillard at +600, Trae Young at +600, Jalen Brunson at +650, Lauri Markkanen at +750, and Donovan Mitchell at +800.
Approach
Because this is obviously not your usual game, we need to have a thoughtful handicapping strategy.
The first step should be to figure out how to eliminate candidates.
The odds are priced so attractively and it is so hard to predict a winner because there are so many options that look appealing.
If we can come up with strong and reasonable criteria that a winner should satisfy, then we can eliminate the options who do not satisfy the criteria.
Criteria: Experience Counts
A winning three-point shooting contest will want to have experience.
Experience is clearly valuable because Beasley asked Lillard, his teammate on Milwaukee, for advice.
You might think it silly to ask for advice: is this contest really more complicated than just making shots?
But there is strategy in play for multiple reasons, including the fact that a lot of shots will be shot and players have limited endurance. Pacing matters, and experienced contestants will have a better idea of how to pace themselves.
Also, the placement of the rack consisting entirely in "money" balls is something that a player will want to be wise about selecting.
We can't say what exactly Beasley wanted to know from Lillard, but the fact is that Beasley's desire to seek Lillard's advice implies that the latter has an advantage for being more experienced.
Further Criteria: Shooting Prowess
The remaining criteria are self-evident: this is a three-point shooting contest, so players should be good shooters.
Because a lot of balls are getting shot, they should also be comfortable shooting a higher volume of shots.
So we will look for players who boast strong three-point shooting percentages while having a high volume of three-point shoots
History Matters, Too
Finally, we will acknowledge that repeat champions are rare. Players who have already won this contest will be eliminated from consideration unless they are truly special, like Steph Curry.
Eliminating Candidates
Karl-Anthony Towns and Damian Lillard
Towns won this contest in 2022, so it is statistically unlikely that he will do so again.
The same thought applies to Lillard, who won last year.
In fact, Lillard is even less likely to win. There has not been a back-to-back champion since Jason Kapono in 2007 and 2008.
The First-Year Participants
Because experience matters, we will rule out the first-year participants.
Brunson and Beasley are disadvantaged because this will be their first three-point contest.
Trae Young and Donovan Mitchell
I dislike Trae Young's chances because there are clearly better shooters in this competition.
His three-point shooting percentage this season, 37.7, is just not impressive.
Donovan Mitchell's 36.1 three-point percentage is even less impressive.
My Two Favorite Choices
Tyrese Haliburton
So far we have two remaining options, and I like both of them as investments, in case you want to put money down on two different players.
I'll start with my second-favorite remaining option, Tyrese Haliburton, a sharpshooter making 39.6 percent of his three-point attempts this season.
Haliburton will provide good proof that experience is valuable here.
Last year, he started off with a bang, amassing 31 points in the first round.
But he fizzled out and suffered a disappointing finish.
He is aware now that he should avoid talking trash. He will also improve his pacing.
Lauri Markkanen
My favorite pick here is Lauri Markkanen.
I find him thoroughly undervalued by oddsmakers because he has everything that you want in a three-point contestant.
He is a great shooter, making 40.6 percent of his three-point shots while attempting eight per game.
His February has been especially sizzling, as he's made 19 of his 39 three-point attempts so far.
Expect him to improve off last year's three-point contest performance in the largest way imaginable.
Best Bet: Lauri Markkanen at +750 with BetOnline
