thoughts starting December 27th

SF_capper

SF_capper

CTG addict
Decided I'm gonna make my own thread. Not just for the attention and the occasional "GL sf_capper" posts (although that does play a role) but because things I feel are my weaknesses are recordkeeping and constraint. I could just use my own little document thing for the record keeping, but when I do that I sometimes find myself lying to myself, or not updating it and just quitting it after a couple bad days or when it gets in the red. By posting it'll help that, and before I place a bet, it's nice to see it typed up to make sure my reasoning is sound vs just an impulse action bet- which has been ruining my could be great profits

I was posting earlier this yr, but was gettin killed and it was embarassing to be posting a losing record with continuous losing picks. I feel I heated up a bit and am getting into the flow a bit better *knock on wood*, but if I post like 1-21, then yea I think I'll take another posting break lol. SO lets get this going. WIll try to update this top screen for daily plays. Not sure when I'll make a new thread, guess it'll depend on how I feel.

one thing I do a bit differently than most here is instead of laying 1.1 to win 1, I'll do 1.05 to win .9545, or for like a ML dog say +150, instead of 1 unit to win 1.5 units, I'll go .8 to win 1.2. This way, imo, is truly flat betting as far as 1 unit goes. How can you really say you're flat betting when you have one +170 (1 to win 1.7) dog, mixed with a -110 (1.1 to win 1) spread. Obviously the +170 means more to your bankroll. I think this is a good way to get myself to reduce juice as much as possible as well

If you don't agree with one of my plays, please argue your side. It'll help me and the board so much more

YTD: 0-0
Sides: 0-0
Totals: 0-0
1st H sides: 0-0
1st H totals: 0-0
2nd H sides: 0-0
2nd H totals: 0-0
1 units:
2 units:
3 units:

Plays:
1st H New Jersey +1.5 -115- 1.07 to win .9304
New Jersey ML +120- .9083 to win 1.09
Houston -10- 2.1 for 1.9
-Houston -5- 3.3 for 3
---local fucked up
Milwaukee -6 2.1 for 1.9
-Milwaukee -4 1.1 to win
-will count diff spreads as 1 play unless it makes a difference
 
Last edited:
most of my thoughts on this card are in the discussion thread, but to recap, looking at:

Milwaukee vs Detroit
Milwaukee with a lot of rest and time at home for this game. Got to play on the 23rd at home and stay there thru this game, after which they get SA in 3 days, so doubt any lookahead. Detroit off the thrilling buzzer beating finish over OKC yesterday. Now got to fly to Milwaukee only to come back home afterwards to face Orlando. Maybe a lookahead, maybe a hangover, hopefully both for detroit. Not a fan of Detroit post-Billups trade, and think they're still getting respect and action based on their Detroit brand name and brand name players. Milwaukee is still, and likely will remain for the rest of the yr, underrated because they are Milwaukee, but truth be told, Skiles has done wonders for this squad. If I see Milwaukee as small chalk, I'll play it almost immediately. If I see them as dogs, I'll wait it out and hope for a better ML price.
 
Houston vs Utah
nice spot, and everything I see is setting up nicely for Houston. Obviously playoff revenge from when I think Utah beat Houston in 5? 6? last yr, don't remember, but Houston had HCA and still were made to look like fools. Last yr, in their first meeting since utah knocked Tmac off playoffs, Tmac went for 50 in a houston rematch game. I really believe Houston was looking ahead to this game in their loss today:
1) Artest missed with a sore ankle. Artest is not the type just to miss a divison game with a "sore ankle", especially since it didn't seem to bother him for 32 minutes chasing and bumping LBJ on the 23rd. I think they told him to rest up for Utah
2) In a very close game, Houston's stars get 30 minutes? Tmac 33, Yao 34, Battier 29, etc.? No way rationing minutes was a coincidence, they just wanted to get out of this game injury free for 2m.
Asked what happened to the Rockets’ offense, McGrady said, “I think we left it back in Houston.”- aka: we couldn't thin kabout the Hornets when we goin home 2m to play the jazz

Minutes worked out well as Utah also on a b2b, is very shorthanded. No boozer, no millsap, Questionable Okur. Not sure you want Koufas defending Yao. DWill forced into 43 minutes today- for a guy thats not really 100%, that can take a toll

ok so the possitives for Houston are obvious: They very likely want this game more and have had it circled. What I don't like:

Look at that schedule:
<TABLE class=yspwhitebg cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=yspscores>Fri, Dec 19</TD><TD class=yspscores noWrap>Sacramento</TD><TD class=yspscores noWrap align=right>W 107-96
FLY TO MINNY FROM HOUSTON
</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=yspscores>Sat, Dec 20</TD><TD class=yspscores noWrap>at Minnesota</TD><TD class=yspscores noWrap align=right>W 109-102
FLY TO JERSEY FROM MINNY
</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=yspscores>Mon, Dec 22</TD><TD class=yspscores noWrap>at New Jersey</TD><TD class=yspscores noWrap align=right>W 114-91
FLY TO cLEVELAND FROM JERSEY
</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=yspscores>Tue, Dec 23</TD><TD class=yspscores noWrap>at Cleveland</TD><TD class=yspscores noWrap align=right>L 90-99
FLY HOME FOR CHRISTMAS

fly to new orleans
</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=yspscores>Fri, Dec 26</TD><TD class=yspscores noWrap>at New Orleans</TD><TD class=yspscores noWrap align=right>L 79-88 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Probably just landed at home

thats 6 flights in a week, a shitload of traveling for a team thats banged up a bit. Luckily, hunger for a W usually trumps tired legs

Not sure what to expect for a line, or when I should play it. I'd imagine line comes out, then when more info becomes available the line moves accordingly. I speculate Artest plays, no idea about Okur. What do you guys suggest I do? I doubt I'll be able to get a play in when info becomes available and before the line move, so should I just play it when I wake up and hope artest later gets announced in and okur out, or should I wait to get complete info before I wager?
 
i think you should just play houston and see where it goes. i mean if revenge is on their minds, everyone will step up. utah is missing key players and i dont see who guards yao. also, BC mentioned houston does well ats after loss. forgot the stat but its in the discussion thread.
 
i deleted the post earlier bout the bucks line, saw it on my book, but its offline. so its not correct, my apologies
 
lungster said:
i think you should just play houston and see where it goes. i mean if revenge is on their minds, everyone will step up. utah is missing key players and i dont see who guards yao. also, BC mentioned houston does well ats after loss. forgot the stat but its in the discussion thread.
Click to expand...

yea I'm definitely playing Houstom, just not sure. I obviously want the shortest number possible. Yea likely my best shot will be when it comes out.

Anyone know when I could expect these lines to open?
 
Houston's interesting me also.

...i was doing the make everything =2 unit thing earlier, but hoops informed me that i was costing myself money. It makes sense to play MLs that way, SF, but not spreads. He had some math on it, but i'm not playing 1.1 to win 1 but on a +110 dog i'll put 0.952/1.048

good luck
 
love this thread already sf. and i agree 100% -- it's just as important to cap yourself imo to see where you're trending and what you've been struggling to see etc. i try to keep my records for each individual team, conferences, dogs and favs of varying ranges, etc etc to see what my own biases are that are keeping me from being or making me successful. if i'm 6-2 at fading a particular team, and 2-7 fading a particular team, obviously i'm not seeing the second team that well, and so on.

really fucked us with that bucks line---didn't think they'd give us plus money but i certainly wouldn't think it would open where it did and quickly shoot up to -5.5. i was leaning that way as well but i think it's a no play at this point. i was leaning houston too, but i doubt i'll play that now either---was hoping for -6.5 there. wishful thinking i guess

pretty much only interested in nets blazers and thunder today

bol bud
 
love the spot for houston today, with a loss to NO yesterday and a win for utah. Houstons bigs should dominate utah today
 
thanks guys. Complete buzzkill seeing both of those lines. So weak that they completely took value out on both. Still contemplating if I wanna say fuck the value and just play the spot.

Joe- that's a great idea. I'm gonna steal that from you. Try to keep records for teams I bet on/ against. I already know there's a few teams I regularly bet on and against. I'll go back and look at my records for that.

I like new jersey with some obvious reasons ( they're on the road, back end of home n home) but feel we got a little priced out. Also think charlotte is a severely underrated team, so I gotta still think about it.
Blazers definitely feels like a blowout, but they're play lately has me rethinking. May still play it. Thinkin blazers might be the type of team that'll destroy bad teams, but lose to good ones. Also, Roy will likely go off tonight gainst that d
Don't like either side for the okc wash game, but gun to head, I'd also take the +money. I can't imagine either team is up for it as they're both off heartbreakers. Think wash's heartbreaker may have a lingering effect for a while. I would read local papers before any bet there
 
Houston -10- 2.1 for 1.9
-Houston -5- 3.3 for 3
---local fucked up
Milwaukee -6 2.1 for 1.9
-Milwaukee -4 1.1 to win 1
 
hell ya. didn't even see this thread. nice to see you posting. not sure how to say this w/out it sounding like I'm dogging you from years past, but it seems like you've matured a ton as a handicapper since you're unreal playoff run two years back. not in seeing spots, but in the MM arena. hope that makes sense?? anyways bol tonight and I'm glad you're posting plays again.
:cheers:
 
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