Thoughts on Week 4

SF_capper

CTG addict
week 4 is here and here is typically when gambling should be a bit easier

proof: 9 road faves!!
-looking to be on a couple of these home doggs

another interesting thing: many big players are playin their old teams:
Shaub comes back to Atlanta
Jamal Lewis plays Baltimore
Daunte Culpepper might play Miami
Darrel Jackson plays Seattle

should be interesting to see how these players/teams react. In general, I think it is a good role of thumb type thing to bet on a big player that left a team because the team no longer wanted them, because this player would want to prove/show what they lost. One situation that I find different is the Shaub case, because in this case, everyone is calling Atlanta dumb for losing Shaub and are saying how if they kept him, their season would've been slightly saved. In this case, the whole Atlanta team will want to prove that they DONT need Shaub, thus needing to prove more than one player. Jamal Jewis and Daunte were just unwanted and these are 2 players that seem like the type to hold a grudge. Does anyone know what happened in Seattle? Mutual type trade for Jackson?

One game I really like is Niners/Seattle
-Seattle is a completely different team on the road/at home. look at their season so far: win at home against TB, lose on road to Arizona, win at home to Cinci. Of these three: TB, Zona, Cinci, I'd have to rate Zona the worst, but Seattle lost to them because they didn't have "the 13th man" homefield advantage. Niners off the first loss against Pittsburgh, so these 2 are tied for the division lead right now. Holmgren guarenteed that they wouldn't get swept by the Niners this year. Up til last week, although 2-0, Niners were accused by everyone for not opening up the playbook and making everything conservative. They opened it up against Pittsburg, and they looked really good (although the scoreboard won't show that). Alex Smith was throwing really well, coming out of the pocket, tucking it and running.. this coming against Pittsburgh- one of the toughest Defenses for a young QB. This O-line is better than advertised, and has something even great O-line's don't have- depth. This entire team is pretty damn deep. No real superstars, but many ok players at all positions.

losses: Manny Lawson, Vernon Davis,- out Keith Lewis, Mark Roman- unsure.

If keith Lewis and Roman are both out then the secondary will drop even more. These are both of our safeties.
Vernon Davis will hurt. Alex Smith was looking comfortable ass hell throwing to Davis and Davis was running routes and making nice catches- tip-toeing out of bounds.

ok enough babbling

overall Niners want this division lead. This defense is tough for anyone. The MLB crew of Derek Smith and Patrick Willis is amazing. We cannot handle speed backs. (willie parker) I've known this and it was shown over the weekend. Shaun Alexander is not very fast, much more of a power back (kinda like SJAX) Nate Clements should do an OK job limiting Deion Branch. Niners off their 1st loss

shit brb
 
Niners offense has showed sparks. First time home since MNF comeback. Alex Smtih has looked better. Darrel Jackson plays old team. Expecting Niners to win a tight one. Just got a new KR. Wait for the line.. waiting for more injury status
 
Definitely an interesting card this week. Like you said, a bunch of road favorites. You have to think at least 3 of those 9 win SU.
 
Like niners SF cappa

at this point..

This week will tell us though..because there are so many shit teams in NFL..will this be the fave year of 05 or the typical seaosn like last year
 
Like niners SF cappa

at this point..

This week will tell us though..because there are so many shit teams in NFL..will this be the fave year of 05 or the typical seaosn like last year

Don't think books will allow another fave yr. Gambling is a growing problem in society now a days, thus Vegas knows they can expect many squares and more money for themselves. Not all faves can kill, and thus I think if they do we'll see some super inflated lines come midseason to even out. Agree that there are many shit teams, but all teams good/bad are susceptible to nice spots to play them. (maybe cleveland/Atlanta on Sunday)
 
kinda like the Niners too...but would like a better line. not sold on their offense, or their run defense...but they're definitely on the upswing.
 
probably gonna play:


Atlanta +3
Cleveland +4
Minnesota +2
San Francisco +2
Minnesota/GB UNDER 38


smaller leans, may/may not play. Need something to push me over
Oakland +4
STL +13
Detroit +3
Det/Chi OVER
Jets -3.5
Tampa +3
KC +12
Philly -3
Philly/Giants OVER 48
 
just put in my for shits parley

Risking:
$25
To Win:
$4985.46
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><THEAD><TR class=fRow><TD>
</TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=sRow><TD>
[208] ATLANTA +120
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><THEAD><TR class=fRow><TD>
</TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=sRow><TD>
[210] CLEVELAND +185
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><THEAD><TR class=fRow><TD>
</TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=sRow><TD>[212] DETROIT +125
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><THEAD><TR class=fRow><TD>
</TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=sRow><TD>[214] MINNESOTA +105
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><THEAD><TR class=fRow><TD>
</TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=sRow><TD>[224] ARIZONA +230

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
San Francisco +110
 
looks like it'll be in the morning: (will be playing local's numbers, may decide to change amount, will post on top screen when I finalize everything, about 5 minutes before the games)

Atlanta +2.5- 400 (will make it 500, if its 3)
Cleveland +4- 400
Minnesota +2- 500
Minnesota/GB UNDER 37.5- 100
Buffalo +3.5- 100 (if I get 4, might make it 200)
STL +13- 100 (not sure completely yet)
Detroit +3- 200 (if I can get 3, anything under- no play)


Afternoon games:
Niners +1- 500
Arizona +6- 400
 
quick writeups

Atlanta +2.5- 400- expecting Atlanta/ Harrington to show that they didn't need Schaub
Cleveland +4- 400- Thinking JLewis runs over his old team
Minnesota +2- 500- fading public GB. All I've been seein on ESPN is Favre and Romo. Favre in domes- not hot, expecting a pick or 2.. or 3.
Minnesota/GB UNDER 37.5- 100- expecting somehting like a 17-13 Minnesota W. 2 strong defenses and weak offenses.
Buffalo +3.5- 100 Don't think Jets should ever be favored on the road. Giving 3-4 pts to a division foe..
STL +13- 100 fade of the ESPN/Sunday night boy Romo.
Detroit +3- 200 new QB shouldn't be giving 3 on the road. Beat up Chicago D. Expect Detroit to put up pts here. Something like 20/21 pts. Don't think Chicago can follow even against this D
 
Atlanta +2.5- 400 win
Cleveland +4- 400 win
Minnesota +2- 500 lose
Minnesota/GB UNDER 37.5- 100 lose
Buffalo +3.5- 200 win
STL +13- 100 lose
Detroit +3- 200 win


Afternoon games:
Niners +1- 500 lose
Arizona +6- 400 win

posted:
5-4
+280

(but lost my unposteds...)
 
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