Thoughts on Pats and Brady

[bjorks]

How big of an impact does everyone think this will have?

We'll get adjusted lines for Cassel, but is he capable of covering lines or is it too early to tell?

We obviously won't see the -14.5 or -10.5 for awhile, but I have to think we'll see some 3.5's to 6.5's and they'll probably be dogs on the road against the better team.

Discuss...

 

[wizardofodd]

they are already dogs this weekend at the jets at +2.5

 

[Throwback420]

1-15 lol

 

[Smokedawg]

they barely beat the chiefs at home...and the chiefs might be the worst team in the AFC

this guy hasnt started a game since high school!

 

[Smokedawg]

 

[brewer]

too much talent around him for them not to win 9 games imo.

 

[Bailey81]

All this talk I'm hearing about how the Pats are going to change their offensive game plan for Cassel, I'm not buying it. Belichek is way too arrogant to think that one player (even if it is Tom Brady) is better than his system and his personnel. I don't think the Pats turn into a running team. I fully expect Cassel to run the spread as if he were Tom Brady. I'm not expecting necessarily the same results, but this Pats team is great. They've lost one guy, granted a ridiculously important one, but a lot of QBs can figure out a way to throw the ball to Randy Moss and Wes Welker. The defense, although a year older looked pretty solid against a poor KC offense, but they're not going to all of a sudden start giving up a ton of points. Cassel, although he hasn't started since high school, has learned two very high powered offensive systems...USC behind Palmer and Leinart and New England behind Brady for the past 3 years. He knows the offense and he's got a big time arm with big time weapons.

Sure he's unproven, but I think this is a huge overreaction. What would the line have been on the Jets game this week with Brady? 7? 10? And now the Jets are favored to win the game by a FG? C'mon. I don't see it. Just my .02 but I expect the Pats to continue to roll and win the AFC East. All this talk that everyone is going to be gunning for them since Brady went down is garbage. Of course everyone's going to be gunning for them, they're the Patriots! Belicheck is way too confident in himself and his personnel to even have this be an issue. He will have his team focused as they always are and I'm sure by today, it's business as usual in New England. He expects that, check that demands that from his players.

 

[SportsNut]

I think Tom Brady is overrated in a sense. Anyone who watches a Patriot game in recent years has to be mystfied how any QB can have that long to throw the ball . Mix in an ALL WORLD WR like Randy Moss and was it suprise playing a soft schedule that he broke records ? What did the Giants have ? A pass rush ....

So if they allow Matt Cassell the same amount of time why cant he be successful ? Brady was a solid college QB but didnt he also figh Henson for playing time even as a senior ? It was long ago forgive my memory if its incorrect . Cassell was a backup at USC to uhm Palmer and Leinart who in college were legendary ...

They will need though to make some attempt to run the ball consistently IMO. I can praise the OL all day but Brady still needs to be confident and patient in the pocket and then deliver a good throw which you can not undervalue . The problem confidence and comfort level is that comes from reps and playing time (ie: experience) and cassell does lack that .....

I think weighing week 1 for NE is a mistake if you take soley as NE didnt stomp KC.

NE was sloppy to begin with . Walker fumbles after moving the ball on the opening possession around teh oppeonents 40 on a 2and 10 from the KC 38...they would have been on 3rd and long but still great field position possibility they go for it on 4th and manageable as well. Chances are likely IMO they get at least 3 that drive and who is to say they couldnt get 7 ? next drive for NE Moss just fumbles inside the KC 20 on a reception. Again points off the board and didnt see the play so not sure how likely a TD was.

Cassell comes in 1st pass on 3rd down a 51yder to Moss and results in a later TD .

Next 2 drives he was handcuffed abit IMO...
after TD drive they ran it twice and he had a 3rd and 4 he didnt covert
next drive they try on 1st down to throw it and he gets sacked , bounces back with a 12 yard gain but 3rd and 7 he doesnt convert

1st drive after half --
Pats score a TD but mostly due to the ground game andonce they got deep into KC teritoty had b2b 17 then 12 yd runs. Early though he was faced with a 3rd and 8 completing a 15 y pass to Thomas. Also hit another important pass on 2nd and 9 for a 1st down....seemed to be very obvious NE was gonna run it on 1st down and then go from there . If they were successful and picked up 5+ yards chances are they would run it again on 2nd . Now was it to make life easiest on Cassell or was it due to the lack of respect they had for KC in general ?

4th Q drives -
They actually allow Cassell to throw the ball for teh 2nd time on 1st down and it goes INC. Short run on 2nd he is sacked on 3rd and 8 ...not an easy situation ...

Next drive back to the run on 1st pick up 8yds and then run it on 2nd and 3rd but fail to pick up the 1st . Would have liked them to throw it 3rd and short 1 I assume ..

Then after a KC INT up 14-10 Cassell again played well ...
faced with a 3rd and 3 after 1yd run then a 6yd completion , Matt scrambled for 9 yds something he is probably better at then Brady . 1st down....

Huge 3rd and 9 at the KC 36 he finds Walker for 12 yds and another 1st down..

on 2nd and 6 NE gets a 10 yd penalty making it 2nd and 16 from the 30 , I assume he made a safe pass to Morris who picked up 11 yds but huge to make it 3rd and manageable and get then back in comfortable field goal range around the 20. They did not pick up 3rd and 6 though and kck a crucil FG to go up 17-10.....

Without watching the game cant see what Cassell did wrong . He seemed to play very well despite not being given much oppturnity to make things happen . Which is understandable but you would hope changes as they go forward...

One thing is very clear IMO . If you focus on the PATS opponents alone this year it was gonna be tougher to cover big numbers as the jets definetly improved and Miami has also improved (okay how could they not but they did) who thet play next 2 weeks before a BYE . Then not easy going West B2b weeks first SF then SD which I think makes SD even tougher then just on the surface. Then in wk 1 Den and Pitt who they host also look better . Most of there opponent seem to improve from 07 versions with a few exceptions . Late in the yr again b2b west cost games and also Bills improved as well ....

So definetly a tougher schedule IMO but also look at NEs defense that certainly showed weakness late in the year and is regressing I think ...So its not just the Brady factor in terms of covering spreads. It may be a change in approach rather then fading NE as overpriced chalk they may often be undervalued due to his absence now.....tricky slope IMO..:cheers:

 

[Blue_Chip]

Now that Brady is out, the Patriots go from probable eight-point road favorites against the New York Jets to three-point underdogs.
Brady is the only player in football worth double-digits on the betting line. Peyton Manning is worth seven points, according to Mike Seba, a senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. Brady is worth at least 10 points. His replacement is Matt Cassel, who last started in high school.

 

[MusicCityGambler]

I think the Patriots are in trouble and granted that is exactly what I want so maybe take this with a grain of salt.

The thing that people don't realize is that a guy like Brady not only makes his offense better but he keeps his defense fresh as well. The Patriots with Brady at the helm are rarely going to be he held to three and outs. Because of this their defense is often forcing offenses to drive much further than most teams.

With Matt Cassell starting, here is the snowball effect
-More turnovers.
-Less likely to find secondary receivers that Brady could. This means much more unfavorable down and distances than normal
-Worse field position
-a good but aging defense is put under more durress because they will be on the field longer and they will most likely have less field to defend.

In the NFL, things snowball quickly and many times it's easy to forget about the most rudimentary aspects of a football game and how they can be altered by taking an elite player out of the equation. A lot of these factors are things New England simply hasn't had to deal with in a long time. Now it's back to the reality that most NFL teams face.

If you don't think there will be a significant dropoff please consider these factors and then ask yourself if there will be a dropoff or not. My guess is you'll look at the situation a bit differently.

The Patriots go 9-7 at best and are likely to finish with 5-8 wins. They've got several West Coast trips. Their 'weak' schedule is bogus because every team in their division appears to be much better. They get Indy and SD on the road, plus Pittsburgh. Throw in the fact that teams are going to be pumped to get in a great shot at a Brady-less Patriot team and it means trouble.

 

[reNew Orleans]

I think they still finish around .500 once they figure out how to run the ball consistantly, defense front is too talented and WRs will only help Cassel, hes got plenty of weapons. Dont know if they can win the division but huge test in Week 2 to see how they stack up against the Jets. The Bills may very well end up winning the division though, me thinks.

 

[CapTwo]

I think they still finish around .500 once they figure out how to run the ball consistantly, defense front is too talented and WRs will only help Cassel, hes got plenty of weapons.

Definitely agree with you there. Defense is still stacked, but until cassell gets some chemistry with these receviers, since hes kind of just been thrown into the mix all of a sudden, and gets in some type of a rhythm.... the pats will probably be looking to run the football a lot more.
And even with that we should see a lot more incomplete passes next couple weeks.

thats why kind of thinking they might be a good UNDER play these next couple weeks. looking into it..

opcorn:

does anyone know if cassell has a strong arm? how is moss going to be affected on his deep routes?

 

[SportsNut]

Now that Brady is out, the Patriots go from probable eight-point road favorites against the New York Jets to three-point underdogs.
Brady is the only player in football worth double-digits on the betting line. Peyton Manning is worth seven points, according to Mike Seba, a senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. Brady is worth at least 10 points. His replacement is Matt Cassel, who last started in high school.

That is seriously the biggest BULLSHIT statement ever . So NE opened -15 at home vs KC and your gonna tell me they would travel to the Jets and lay -8 ? I call BULLSHIT . Not you BC referring to Seba's comment .

I doubt NE would have been higher then -4 with a health Brady . :cheers:

I thank you for posting that cause now I know they want to spread BS that Brady is worth more then he really is.

 

[Blue_Chip]

Patriots still finish at 10-6 or better and win AFC East.

Trent Dilfer won a Superbowl. Why? He had one of the best defenses in NFL history, he had a workhorse in J Lewis, and he had a monsterous OL. Cassell has an effective defense regardless of age, a stable of workhorses with Maroney, Morris, Jordan, Evans, and he has a consensus top five OL despite their flop in the Superbowl, which I continue to hold as the biggest reason NE lost to NYG.

You expect overreaction in the line adjustments, yet I'm seeing the overreaction right here at CTG.

No problem, SN. I knew you were going off on Seba's comments and not mine... lol. I wanted to post that so guys here can use that this week in their capping.

 

[brewer]

Why would anyone listen to what a linesman tells you? Unless you personally know and trust him.

Football is a game of 11 on 11 not 1 on 1. Sure the qb has the ball in his hands for the overwhelming majority of the time but he is not out there by himself 1 on 11. He has friends. Cassell has some very good friends out there on the field with him.

Same reason is why i was high on Rodgers. However, also seeing Rodgers make one impressive NFL throw after another impressive NFL throw in preseason and his reads helped form my high opinion of him, too. I don't have that on Cassell because i wasn't able to watch any of the game.

However, the Pats will rally around him. Everyone on that team is going to focus that much more and prove the media they despise wrong. They aren't just gonna roll over and play dead. This team is still the favorite to win the division imo.

Again, if they dont win at least 9 games this year I'll be very, very suprised.

 

[MusicCityGambler]

Why would anyone listen to what a linesman tells you? Unless you personally know and trust him.

Football is a game of 11 on 11 not 1 on 1. Sure the qb has the ball in his hands for the overwhelming majority of the time but he is not out there by himself 1 on 11. He has friends. Cassell has some very good friends out there on the field with him.

Same reason is why i was high on Rodgers. However, also seeing Rodgers make one impressive NFL throw after another impressive NFL throw in preseason and his reads helped form my high opinion of him, too. I don't have that on Cassell because i wasn't able to watch any of the game.

However, the Pats will rally around him. Everyone on that team is going to focus that much more and prove the media they despise wrong. They aren't just gonna roll over and play dead. This team is still the favorite to win the division imo.

Again, if they dont win at least 9 games this year I'll be very, very suprised.

With all due respect this line of thought is just insane to me. First, don't compare Aaron Rodgers who was a star in college and a first round selection to a guy who hasn't started a game since high school. The dropoff from Favre to Rodgers might be nothing at all. The dropoff from Brady to Cassell will be insane. The two situations aren't even remotely alike.

Sure he's got 11 friends but with the style that New England plays, the QB is everything. They can alter their style but that takes many of their weapons out of the equation and they are suddenly much easier to play against.

I would say they are likely to lose 3 out of 4 to NYJ/Buffalo, possibly one to Miami, @San Diego, Denver, @Indy, Pittsburgh,@Seattle, and maybe Arizona. Despite what the morons who only analyze last seasons W-L records will tell you, that's a tough schedule. Lots of West Coast-East Coast travel that they didn't have last year and they're an older team. It will take a toll on them.

I would also argue that GB has a better team outside of the QB than the Patriots do. Brady makes everyone on that team so much better than they actually are, and many of these guys will be exposed with Cassell as QB.

The Patriots beat what is widely considered to be one of the worst two teams in the league at home by a touchdown and the Chiefs were in position to win the game. You'll see what's in store for them soon enough.

Sure the Patriots will have a chip on their shoulder because they love proving doubters wrong, but do you honestly believe the hatred for the Patriots around the league is any less than the Patriots' chip against the media and the general public that hates their guts? Hell no it isn't, these fucks are hated throughout the league and they are going to get everyone's best shot.9 wins tops. 6 or 7 is more likely.

 

[SportsNut]

You guys should really pay more attention to what Matt Cassell did in an unexpected relief appearance( as in he wasnt prepared to play) vs KC rather then continually talking about how he was a backup in college . While I agree Rodgers and Cassell are not comparable situations there is one common dominantor . At this point in there careers starting an NFL game for the 1st time is not that a big a deal . Cassell like Rodgers has played extensively in preseasons past . That is experience . Preseason ball is still football its watered down but if you play the 1st Half of the games its good experience.

So look at what Cassell did in an NFL game instead of harping on how he didnt start in college because he played behind 2 stud QBs . Probably at least 50 QBs who wouldnt have started on that USC team on NFLs roster . While I am sure Cassell would have started at all of these small time programs players get pulled from.

Tom Brady is a product of the Pats OL and a weak schedule . He went from 24Tds and 12Ints to 50 TDs and 8 INTs because he added a elite WR and played a bunch of god awful teams . Look at what he did vs good teams and look at what he did when playing bad teams or shorthanded teams ....very obvious IMO...

It was a running joke watching NE games to see if we could count to 10 before Brady released the ball. Not hard when you have all day to look at the field and make a decision.

Please stop with designating Brady as great . QBs are as good as there OL and WRs . Show me a great QB with no OL or WR's.......

Of course Brady is better but your nottrying to replace him as your trying to just play the QB position as well as you can for your team .....

7/11 76yds Brady
13/18 152 Cassell ...whats the big deal ???

What you lose is Tom Brady's big game experience and ability to make his team win games on his play but you dont know even how much of that is needed until the games are played.

They have 5 tricky road games ith only 1 I see as being tough ..@ NYJ , @ Indy , @ Sea , @ Buffalo ...all they need is 2-3 and 3-2 wont suprise me at all ....worst case they go 1-4 but highly doubt that.

Home tricky will denver and pitt maybe the jets if they somehow peak but again all winnable games say they go 1-2 worst case .

Thats 3-5 in there toughest games ...they are 1-0 ...hard to see them losing more then once bewteen Miami twice , hosting Buff and STL , @SF , @Oak , vs Zona ..

So your looking at 10 wins game with only a handful of decent wins ...

Thats my take but will see I guess:cheers:

 

[tigercub]

while not being a fan of the pats, but living near boston and following all the info on this team, i will say that they can still be competitive. However, they have no realistic chances at a superbowl with cassel at the helm, and i think will struggle to make the playoffs, something like 8-9 wins. lets remember, most people around here were expecting cassell to be cut after preseason because hes been in the system for 3-4 years behind brady and still wasnt progressing. if im not mistaken kevin o'connnell outplayed him most preseason, albeit vs. 2 units. they onlly reason cassell is on the team is because guiterrez was awful (just signed to psquad) and o'connell is a rookie. belichick had comfort in him knowing the offense and had brady (healthy?) so there was no reason for concern. now bb is being stubborn, i believe, in not wanting to bring in a simms or someone, but thats who he is. i expected to pats d to be down this year anyways and the offense would be the reason they did damage this year. despite the easy schedule thats just not going to happen with cassell so expect a mediocre year from the patsies.

 

[brewer]

MusicCity, what is that you have seen in Cassell's play that leads you to believe the Pats will have a 10 game drop in the win column with him at QB?

The numbers Sportsnut posted are impressive to me. He basically came into that game from holding a clipboard. Do backup qbs actually pay attention in meetings? I dunno. Putting up those numbers and seeing that highlight deep ball to Moss has me interested in what he can bring to the team.

Did anyone really expect the Pats to just roll out the passing game again this year? I didn't. They couldn't find Moss at all at the end of last year. I thought they would have to go back to how they use to play Patriots football on all those previous SB teams.

Sammy Morris, Maroney and the OLine can supply that. The 2 backs are by far a better 1-2 than any of those backs on past teams and the OLine is better, as well.

What you lose in Brady being hurt the most is his experience of game and situation. Cassell should be able to provide good qb play in current NE offensive system. THe passing game has so many threats. Just give Moss and Welker the ball and let them run after the catch.

Again, if they win less than 9 I will be suprised.

 

[SportsNut]

Do backup qbs actually pay attention in meetings? I dunno. Putting up those numbers and seeing that highlight deep ball to Moss has me interested in what he can bring to the team.

Put it this way I am sure the guy is a professional and does what he is supposed to as far as preparation goes . What I would say though is what human being would have expected in the 1st H of the 1st game of the season to see Brady go down? Had to be the last thing he expected to be playing . No matter what people are programmed to say . As is I prepare myself to play every week robotic comment . There is definetly something said to be for who you are actually backing up. Cant believe Cassell was thinking he would play that day unless it was a 4TD game with 5 minutes left cause we know Bill thinks that a close game from last year.

We dont know what to expect but on the surface I am not a believer in Cassell failing because of things he couldnt control in the past . NE has the right pieces IMO to move forward . I think someone made a great point somewhere about Brady keeping the defense fresh by converting 1st downs and no 3 and outs . Thats a slippery slope though as in 2007 when they scored with ease the defense was back out there quick anyway . Plus if he is throwing so much incompletions stop the clock and such ...so its a good point but we can see a benefit possibly as well ...

BOL ..

 

[SportsNut]

while not being a fan of the pats, but living near boston and following all the info on this team, i will say that they can still be competitive. However, they have no realistic chances at a superbowl with cassel at the helm, and i think will struggle to make the playoffs, something like 8-9 wins. lets remember, most people around here were expecting cassell to be cut after preseason because hes been in the system for 3-4 years behind brady and still wasnt progressing. if im not mistaken kevin o'connnell outplayed him most preseason, albeit vs. 2 units. they onlly reason cassell is on the team is because guiterrez was awful (just signed to psquad) and o'connell is a rookie. belichick had comfort in him knowing the offense and had brady (healthy?) so there was no reason for concern. now bb is being stubborn, i believe, in not wanting to bring in a simms or someone, but thats who he is. i expected to pats d to be down this year anyways and the offense would be the reason they did damage this year. despite the easy schedule thats just not going to happen with cassell so expect a mediocre year from the patsies.

Good points . The bummer is after last years amazing run and losing in the super bowl chances are they dont get another chance. That can fuck with there pysche possibly. Still think they are just as good as say the Jets with Cassell .

Your right about Cassell not exactly doing what he needed to . Only problem I have is its a team full of veterans who really dont have much use for preseason other then get in game shape (mentally as wel) . So here is the lone guy fighting for an offensive spot and he is not going to get much help from his supporting cast . pats and colts dont play hard in the preseason . Is someone gonna dive for a ball in traffic or throw a big block . So hardto grade him because of th team he played in.

The offense did not look great in the preseason with him at the helm but like I said I would prefer to focus on what he did do vs KC rather then what he didnt do before . The 1 game that counted I think he did his job and it was a real game .

Guttirrez was handed a chance and did not do enough to impress and was cut . O'Connell probably did most of his work against the 3rd stringers more then the 2nd unit ...the guys fighting to make a roster and at best be backups. Sort of college level ballplayers who can play the game but not at the NFL level maybe ...

I really do agree with your take on NE . It's impossible to disagree honestly . I think the tricky part is either way we have to believe BB opinion . At first he made it clear he wasnt happy with Cassell auditioning the other Qbs then suddenly he is a believer . So your right he may well be a stubborn SOB which seems plausiable but also maybe he was wrong about Cassel in some ways and the coach staff stuck up for the kid . Its not like BB is gonna say I have no faith in this kid but the QB coach really likes him and thats the only reason he is around .....

Chris Simms I dont see as a better option . He failed to impress in college and did similiar in his short tenure at TB before injuries curtailed his "development". If he was worth a darn he would be somewhere already IMO.

Just think there alot worse guys then Cassel hanging around the NFL and he has a great spot to slide into.....

If I had to choose he would rate 2nd in that division at this point at his position IMO. Edwards hasnt shown me that much that I drool over him and Pennington has great intangibles but what a waste Moss would be and I know what is gonna be said about the two but its a decade later .....:cheers:Its a great debate guys keep up the good opinions..................

Cant believe I am sticking up for NE !

 

[spanishshark]

I think the Pats stay in the mix. The QB is only as good as his O-Line and the Pats still have one. Who is to say Cassell doesn't do the same thing Chad Pennington did when he replaced Testaverde? Or Shaun King when Trent Dilfer got hurt for the Bucs and he took them to the NFC central title? Dont under estimate Belichick.

 

[spanishshark]

Cant believe I am sticking up for NE !

LOL....same here. :36_11_6:

 

[MusicCityGambler]

MusicCity, what is that you have seen in Cassell's play that leads you to believe the Pats will have a 10 game drop in the win column with him at QB?

It would be a mistake to judge him on the first game against the weakest team he will see all year at home. It's going to be much tougher down the line.

It's a new season. The Patriots aren't a 16-0 team so spare the ten game dropoff comment because it's irrelevant to the current situation. They started 0-0 and are now 1-0. Teams improve greatly and fall greatly all the time in the NFL even if they aren't that much different because the margin of error is so small.In fact teams often are completely different at the beginning and end of the season, if you paid attenttion the Patriots while still damn good were nowhere near as formidable at the end of the season as they were in week 4 or 5. They aren't just going magically rediscover the magic.

The Patriots aren't immune from this, especially since they can't cheat anymore and are without their star QB. At this moment they are more subject to the brutal side of NFL variance than any other team. Everyone in their division is quite a bit better this season. Things don't remain constant in the NFL, that's why it's so difficult to cap and predict.

Last year has absolutely nothing to do with this season, so I don't consider any team to be what they were last season. I'm evaluating New England on what their current team is and what their schedule will be along with psychological factors, and common sense football scenarios that can be read in my first post in this thread. There will be a huge dropoff.

The numbers Sportsnut posted are impressive to me. He basically came into that game from holding a clipboard. Do backup qbs actually pay attention in meetings? I dunno. Putting up those numbers and seeing that highlight deep ball to Moss has me interested in what he can bring to the team.

The guy is a backup quarterback in a league that is desperate for quarterbacks. The Patriots nearly cut the guy. He could prove us wrong and be pretty good but I'll side with common sense here that he probably isn't special. Ok he made one good deep pass. This is the problem with the ESPN culture we live in. OK he makes one nice pass, he's automatically awesome.Does the rest of the game not matter and should that pass be the only impresison we're allowed to consider in judging Mr. Cassell?

Did anyone really expect the Pats to just roll out the passing game again this year? I didn't. They couldn't find Moss at all at the end of last year. I thought they would have to go back to how they use to play Patriots football on all those previous SB teams.

Sammy Morris, Maroney and the OLine can supply that. The 2 backs are by far a better 1-2 than any of those backs on past teams and the OLine is better, as well.

This is a good point and the only thing that gives me some pause in writing the obituary of the 2008 Patriots because Maroney is solid but I suspect he won't look as good with Brady out. Bill Belichick thumbed his nose at the football establishment last season by completely disregarding his running game for the sake of going for history and humiliating the competition. I said all season that it would bite them in the ass and it did. He doesn't have the luxury of trying this again with Cassell. Their running game could bail them out but I suspect it won't look nearly as good without the Golden Boy.Teams might be able to load the box on NE which you simply couldn't do with Brady playing.

Another factor is that defensive coordinators are going to be able to be much more daring against Mr. Cassell than Brady because TB is much more capable of making them pay big for a poorly executed scheme.

What you lose in Brady being hurt the most is his experience of game and situation. Cassell should be able to provide good qb play in current NE offensive system. THe passing game has so many threats. Just give Moss and Welker the ball and let them run after the catch.

Again, if they win less than 9 I will be suprised.

Experience and game situations is pretty damn important brewer. Sure Moss and Welker are very good but actually getting them the ball is going to be a much bigger challenge, unless you believe Cassell is going to duplicate Brady's insane completion rate of 2007.

If they win more than 9, I'll finally be able to admit that Belichick isn't the product of cheating, a great front office, and being at the right place and right time with Brady.

 

[SportsNut]

Side Note - If I spell it Cassell one more time smack me ! I know its Matt Cassel think Jack Cassel on Houston is his brother but I keep fucking hitting the double L! Sorry .......

Oh and Brewer that was a great pass to Moss ....:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

It would be a mistake to judge him on the first game against the weakest team he will see all year at home. It's going to be much tougher down the line.

True to a degree . It would be a mistake to call him great or terrible after 1 game and while KC is weak so are a bunch of NFL teams . Plus as I said cant believe he thought he was gonna play . It's also a mistake though to overlook what he did and not acknowledge it . To just dismiss it to me is a mistake. It happened , he did what he could and played well IMO . To me that is relevant . How relevant though I agree with you . No one had acknowledged his play though IMO when I mentioned it .

Plus the old saying you can only beat the teams you play . He only played vs KC and played well so we cant judge him on much else .

The rest of your post is accurate as well . Again though was NE not as good as it was early on or was the competition alot better and maybe offensive gameplan little more expected .

There will be a huge dropoff? Wasnt that inevitable though ? Like saying Miami Dolphins will improve this year ? Probably not the best example but for NE at least in the reg season there was nowhere to go but down .

I think we are talking two different things . I certainly dont expect NE to be winning games by 3 TDS now but I still expect them to be winning .

What negatives can one find about how Cassel played vs KC. I looked at the play by play he did some inpressive things like run for a 1st down .

You have alot of good points MCG. Simply put its a matter of winning games and I agree they will not be embarrassing teams like in the past . Whose to say that hurts there chances of winning by 7 instead of 20.

I already said it in preseason / exhibition the NFL will be exactly like mLB baseball where little seperates the teams and home field will mean alot . Its week 1 and we are saw NE , INDY and SD drop at least a notch in terms of quality of play .

Your simlpy giving Brady to much credit . I think any above avg QB given the same amount of pass attempts and playing the same competition would have had at least 35 TD last year . Put Brady on the Titans are they going to the SB ? Are they a good offense ? I dont think so .

Cassel has been given 1 chance to prove himself and he took advantage of it . If there was better overall teams in the NFL then I would agree rocky road but to me its just like MLB where even the good teams have flaws they cant overcome.

Brady's loss is huge but think Mannings to Indy would be bigger . Just because of how the Pats mentally has been .....everyone is replaceable in BB eyes . That mentality and message may be the hidden key in why NE can succeed . He established long ago that its not about 1 player ....

:cheers:

 

[brewer]

He established long ago that its not about 1 player ....

:shake:

 

[SportsNut]

How fake is the Pats 2007 outburst on offense ? Pretty obvious IMO ......

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=yspsctbg align=middle><TD class=ysptblhdr colSpan=3 height=18>Playoff Stats</TD><TD class=yspwhitebg noWrap width=1 rowSpan=6><SPACER height="1" width="1" type="block"></TD><TD class=ysptblhdr colSpan=9>Passing</TD><TD class=yspwhitebg noWrap width=1 rowSpan=6><SPACER height="1" width="1" type="block"></TD><TD class=ysptblhdr colSpan=6>Rushing</TD><TD class=yspwhitebg noWrap width=1 rowSpan=6><SPACER height="1" width="1" type="block"></TD><TD class=ysptblhdr colSpan=3>Sacked</TD><TD class=yspwhitebg noWrap width=1 rowSpan=6><SPACER height="1" width="1" type="block"></TD><TD class=ysptblhdr colSpan=3>Fumbles</TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18> Week</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18>Opp</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18>Score</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl height=16>QBRat</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl height=16>Comp</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl height=16>Att</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl height=16>Yds</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl height=16>Y/A</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl height=16>Lng</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl height=16>Int</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl height=16>TD</TD><TD height=16></TD><TD class=yspdetailttl height=16>Att</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl height=16>Yds</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl height=16>Y/A</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl height=16>Lng</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl height=16>TD</TD><TD height=16></TD><TD class=yspdetailttl height=16>Sack</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl height=16>SackYds</TD><TD height=16></TD><TD class=yspdetailttl height=16>Fum</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl height=16>FumL</TD><TD height=16></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> Divisional</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>JAC</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16>W 31-20</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>141.4</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>26</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>28</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>262</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>9.4</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>53</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'></TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>0.5</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'></TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'></TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> Conference</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>SDG</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16>W 21-12</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>66.4</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>22</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>33</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>209</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>6.3</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>18</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'></TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>-2</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>-1.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>-1</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'></TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>11</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'></TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> Super Bowl</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left>NYG</TD><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16>L 14-17</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>82.5</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>29</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>48</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>266</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>5.5</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>19</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'></TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>0.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'></TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>5</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>37</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'></TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right height=16><TD class=yspscores align=left colSpan=3 height='\"16\"'> Total</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>96.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>77</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>109</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>737</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>6.8</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>53</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'></TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>-1</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>-0.3</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>2</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'></TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>8</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>52</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'></TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>1</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Only 6.8yds per pass which dropped in the bigger games ....

2TDs and 1 INT per 246 yds passing on 36attempts per.....

Far cry from the reg season .....it happens when you dont play terrible Miami amd Buffalo teams whose defenses where decimated by injuries starting barely passable NFL players .....

 

[Blue_Chip]

Dont under estimate Belichick.

You are a better person for saying this. :tiphat:

 

[MusicCityGambler]

It would be a mistake to judge him on the first game against the weakest team he will see all year at home. It's going to be much tougher down the line.

True to a degree . It would be a mistake to call him great or terrible after 1 game and while KC is weak so are a bunch of NFL teams . Plus as I said cant believe he thought he was gonna play . It's also a mistake though to overlook what he did and not acknowledge it . To just dismiss it to me is a mistake. It happened , he did what he could and played well IMO . To me that is relevant . How relevant though I agree with you . No one had acknowledged his play though IMO when I mentioned it .

Plus the old saying you can only beat the teams you play . He only played vs KC and played well so we cant judge him on much else .

The rest of your post is accurate as well . Again though was NE not as good as it was early on or was the competition alot better and maybe offensive gameplan little more expected .

There will be a huge dropoff? Wasnt that inevitable though ? Like saying Miami Dolphins will improve this year ? Probably not the best example but for NE at least in the reg season there was nowhere to go but down .

I think we are talking two different things . I certainly dont expect NE to be winning games by 3 TDS now but I still expect them to be winning .

What negatives can one find about how Cassel played vs KC. I looked at the play by play he did some inpressive things like run for a 1st down .

You have alot of good points MCG. Simply put its a matter of winning games and I agree they will not be embarrassing teams like in the past . Whose to say that hurts there chances of winning by 7 instead of 20.

I already said it in preseason / exhibition the NFL will be exactly like mLB baseball where little seperates the teams and home field will mean alot . Its week 1 and we are saw NE , INDY and SD drop at least a notch in terms of quality of play .

Your simlpy giving Brady to much credit . I think any above avg QB given the same amount of pass attempts and playing the same competition would have had at least 35 TD last year . Put Brady on the Titans are they going to the SB ? Are they a good offense ? I dont think so .

Cassel has been given 1 chance to prove himself and he took advantage of it . If there was better overall teams in the NFL then I would agree rocky road but to me its just like MLB where even the good teams have flaws they cant overcome.

Brady's loss is huge but think Mannings to Indy would be bigger . Just because of how the Pats mentally has been .....everyone is replaceable in BB eyes . That mentality and message may be the hidden key in why NE can succeed . He established long ago that its not about 1 player ....

:cheers:

wrt to the dropoff I'm referring to Brady to Cassel. According to Pro Football Prospectus if the luck was neutral the 07 Patriots should have been 13-3. Obviously a dropoff was going to happen and obviously Miami was going to get better but you're ignoring the Jets and Bills. It's reasonable to expect at least one of those teams to be a possible 10 win team and the other to be a much more formidable opponent.

The winning by 20 instead of 7 was going to be a thing of the past anyway. As I mentioned, toward the end of the season teams had already started catching up. Take Brady out of the equation and.........

I think Indy was due to decline but the first game might simply have been a case of Manning not having rhythm. When he has none, then he looks terrible. Such is the downside of being a savant I suppose.The Colts are probably a 10 win team. I'm withholding judgement on the Chargers because the Panthers could be a solid club and the Bolts started very slow last year and Rivers looked great. Merriman is a huge blow, though.

Don't forget the Steelers. That team is very well rounded and might be the best team in the AFC. And I know the Titans will once again be the overlooked team because they play the most masculine yet least sexy style of football, but I told you guys at the start of the season that there was a great chance they would win 10 or 11 this year simply because their defense is amazing. The Broncos really could be the team that comes out of nowhere and stuns the world since it appears that Cutler is healthy. That's a club you can never count out.

I think you're saying the AFC is weaker. I can't say I agree. The AFC is still tough, but nowhere near as top heavy.

I probably am giving Brady too much credit and you guys probably aren't giving him enough. The truth as is often the case is likely somewhere in the middle. You're probably right about any QB being able to step in and excel in that scenario. There's no question that it's a mutually beneficial relationship for all involved. Put Brady on the Titans, with that defense and running game, Super Bowl contender? You better believe it.

I agree that a Manning-less Colts team is in much worse shape than a Brady-less Patriot team. OK Cheatichick thinks players are replaceable. It's not tough to plug in a replacement for a cornerback and not see a huge drop-off. Try that at QB which has a much greater impact on everyone else and it's a different story.

This is the first time I can ever remember the Patriots facing any sort of significant on the field adversity over an eight year period. They've been more blessed with good fortune than any team in such a timespan in the history of sport(tuck rule, losing a starting QB only to get something much better, three super bowls by three points, having very poorly run divisional opponents which gave them easier paths to homefield advantage for the playoffs, routinely facing injury decimated teams in the playoffs, favorable bounces that they couldn't control )I can't wait to see how they will react now that they've been given a terrible break for a change.

Hopefully they panic like the bitches they are, just like they did in the Super Bowl when they looked like deer in the headlights. I will admit that I'm biased and hate these cocksuckers with a passion due to their cheating and as I mentioned in the previous paragraph, their astounding run of good fortune.

I can't wait to see how this unfolds.

 

[Blue_Chip]

Far cry from the reg season .....it happens when you dont play terrible Miami amd Buffalo teams whose defenses where decimated by injuries starting barely passable NFL players .....

Those stats are deceiving, and you are taking a relatively small sample size.

First, NE was being analyzed by coaches more than any other team. Second, most of those teams were seeing NE for the second time that year. Third, you are using playoff stats. NFL competition is at its best when the playoffs roll around because it is all or nothing. Also, the risky plays are not called as often in playoffs games as opposed to regular season games; why try a first down play action to Moss 40 yds deep when you are confident Maroney can gain 5yds up the middle?

NE has a good system, a good foundation. What I mean by this is what I said above -- good OL + stable of RB's + effective defense. I don't consider WR's as integral a part of a strong team as I do defense and OL, but if you want to weight WR's heavy, then Cassell has Moss and Welker.

 

[SportsNut]

MCG -

I am a bit confused here . I am saying I agree that it was inevitable that NE would see a dropoff for many reasons . I also agree very much that NYJ and Buffalo have improved and in NY case probably greatly improved from 2007 . So my point was regardless of who was playing QB the Pats were not going to have a cakewalk through the reg season .

As far as 2007 goes I really think its forgotten how bad some of the NE opponents were at the time they played . Really its not just about the defenses but the offenses because if your offense sucked and you were giving NE the ball right back it was a recipe for disaster .

The difference with my point in saying so they dont win by 20 and only win by say 7 who really cares is this ......Your looking at in general and not game to game .

Its very possible that NE now loses game they never would have lost previously . I say it is possible that NE could lose at home to the Jets , to the Steelers( though I completely agre Pitt is a solid team again but healthy unlike 2007) , even maybe Zona could win there, Dnever will be a good game . Really dont think Buffalo , Miami or some of the weaker teams have a great increase in chances to beat NE. Which still there is a good chunk of them on there schedule . I think its reasonable to expect NE to go 4-2 vs its division . Its possibly they dont but dont see at the moment . With 1 win already hard to believe they cant win @ Oak , @ SF vs STL at home . Thats 500 already ....really you need to win a couple of borderline games to get to 10 wins....which is what I was talking about and how I am approaching it . Certainly anything can happen now that they have a huge question mark at a key position . I just think NE can adapt . Like when they made Troy Brown a serviceable DB. Like there mentality or culture of no player is greater then team and BB is the czar .....wasnt the coordinator defectionsa few years ago supposed to hurt ?

To me the greatest sign a team is good is the ability to plug players into key spots . NYG did it last year on the DL and at TE in previous years at LB. Ultimately that flaw may be exosed when your opponent is talent superior but it doesnt happen that often IMO.

In regards to the decline of Indy and SD . Thats exactly what I am basing SD decline on . Last year they were supposed to go places and really they did come on strong late but it was still somewhat disappointing so one would expect that a good start in 08 is in focus . So rather disappointing in not so much that they lost but they really never lead . Along with Merriman's absence its under the radar but Gates seems pretty banged up still and doesnt appear to be signifcantly healthier then last year . I think he has declined from the stud of 2-3 seasons ago , not that he stucks but elite isnt a word that comes to mind because he cant do it every play and LT has some minor issues as well possible turf toe I believe . So warning signs IMO maybe nothing at the end of the day but IMO SD did not progress in 2007 and now has some key injuries already. Plus LT not playing the preseason has to stop he needs some work in a game. With INDY I just disagree and have voiced it in the discussion thread by Marlo . Manning had very little to do with that loss . Anothe huge fav as in DDs and its biggest lead and only lead was 3-0 for all of 3 plays .....they have issues beyond getting Manning up to game speed. Also I agree with you on Carolina no embarrasment or shame in losing to that team ...the beat SD more then SD beat them from what I recall...

With Pitt I like them if they are healthy . Big Ben got banged up last year , the OL was not very good some other scattered injuries on defense even to the WRs I believe contributed to a medicore season . I just think the Texan game while impressive doesnt show much because field position played a huge role and Hous entered with 2 many questions on offense I thought (but yet I took +7 vs them...dumb!). Clearly have to agree that you have to give Pitt the edge over NE now but does that mean they can go to NE an win ? They played them well last year for what its worth but interesting game IMO.....

I agree with your Titans. I love that defense and Albert Haynesworth for sure . Problem I am sure you agree is the offense and what they are trying to do . If they want VY to be a pocket passer and thats how they are gonna call agame then Collins is the better choice to start now . I actually think Tenny could be better then last years JAGS alot better .....

What I was saying about the schedule is that really NEs didnt get that much tougher . They have some more competitive road games but even still they dont appear to be automatic losses to me . AFC East definetly improved ...

The Titans dont have enough or maybe any playmakers to benefit from Brady . Thats why he had 24 TDs previous to 50 . NE added only Moss on offense (and saw declines in Miami , NYJ and Buffalo from previous year) and I believe the 24 year is when Branch parted way (and the other guy I cant even recall his name...oh yeah he is on Tenny (maybe still?) David Givens !!!). So even surrounding talent effects him. Did Favre get better past few years or did the talent surrounding him ? Clearly IMO the talent . Yu can make a great throw but you cant catch it for the WR or the TE or the RB. Guys have to make plays and when your a tad off your game you need guys to make tough plays that day .

Dont think I dont respect Brady or think he is a top NFL QB . I simply think he is not solely responsible for the stats he has produced . There are multiple factors. I guess part of what I feel is the foundation is now very solid for the offense in NE . There are new no pieces trying to fit EXCEPT as you said the Key new QB Matt Cassel . That is huge IMO because he doesnthave to worry about much other then doing his job. He doesnt need to worry about how players fit into the offense as the coaches and they themselves understand at this point . So it is truly just 1 piece ....

I think you are dead on about NE and adversity but it could be favorable . Why ? They needed a new challenge . They needed to experience uncertainity . Like I said about VY he needs to understand , experience and even embrace failure before he can succeed. The guys who always seem to fail ultimately are the guys who growing up where just naturally better and you could never identify there success . Identify as is did they know how to play and understand how play and along with there talent succeed or did they simlply have enough talent over there opponent it just looked to easy UNTIL the playing field was more leveled.

Okay silly story by me to understand this . Most of us play hoops . How many times do people assume something stupid like a white kid cant out jump a black kid ? I hate even using words like black and white tp describe people as its not me . I think everyone understands the stereotype I am talking about hence the movie title : White Men Cant Jump . I hope I do not offend anyone (seriously ) . So why this matters well look at like this. I am 6'2 white guy who always jumps the opening tap. Many times in my life I have had refs make comments like your not gonna win anyway when I jump against someone who happens to be black and usually taller . Fresh in mind cause it happened last nite . Anyway it always irks me because I got serious hops IMO for any skin color . So what almost always happens is I out jump the guy despite being inches shorter and less wingspan . Bring that up because what I or the other guy looks like really doesnt matter . It only matters who wins the jump ball. With NE it doesnt matter that Cassel isnt as good as Brady and cant do what he does . Ultimately it only matters if he helps the offense remain effecient in moving the ball and scoring but dictated by that particular game . Sure he may not be able to hit Moss for a 60yd with 40 seconds left in a game but we cant say he will be in that situation anyway ever in 2008 . It doesnt mean he cant run the offense effeciently week to week .....just like being white shouldnt be a handicap for my hops ....Everything is not always what it appears to be . Cassel appears to be a bum because he was a backupin college and hasnt drawn rave reviews from NE coaches in the past . It doesnt mean he is at a disadvantage though as all that matters is his play from last week forward...
Cassel may not look , act or play Brady but measuring NE success based on appearance is wrong IMO ......and BTW I lost the tap last nite ...I didnt stretch and the kid had a good 6 inches on me . Which irked me as I was late getting there walked out of car and said hold up a sec let me stretch my legs real quick and the ref goes wont matter . Then 2 secs later he throw it up and the kid jus beat me and the ref said okay you were right you had it if you stretched .....you cant judge anyone till they try .......


Basically the point of the above is just because someone doesnt look the part initially doesnt mean they cant fill the role.........

Again hopefully it makes sense and doesnt offend anyone ...just more pyschobabble for me its about the power of being underestimated ....:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

Those stats are deceiving, and you are taking a relatively small sample size.

First, NE was being analyzed by coaches more than any other team. Second, most of those teams were seeing NE for the second time that year. Third, you are using playoff stats. NFL competition is at its best when the playoffs roll around because it is all or nothing. Also, the risky plays are not called as often in playoffs games as opposed to regular season games; why try a first down play action to Moss 40 yds deep when you are confident Maroney can gain 5yds up the middle?

NE has a good system, a good foundation. What I mean by this is what I said above -- good OL + stable of RB's + effective defense. I don't consider WR's as integral a part of a strong team as I do defense and OL, but if you want to weight WR's heavy, then Cassell has Moss and Welker.

My point was simply this NE broke records last year . Which IMO was due largely to facing inferior talent or low qualioty opponents more then it was representative of how great there offense was. Once they starting playing better teams there offensive sideshowed basically ceased and it was real football again.

If NE was truly great offensively then it would have overcome the points you mentioned and done more IMO vs SD and NYG....to not be able to do at the most crucial times says something .....:cheers: