Though Shall not bet against injuries..

crawdads

Fairway to Heaven
Small wager. Violating one of BAR's commandments.

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[TD="class: MiddleRight Currency"]$46.35[/TD]
[TD="class: MiddleRight Currency"]$45.00[/TD]
[TD]Pending[/TD]
[TD]3/31/13 7:05pm Reduced Basketball 708 San Antonio Spurs -2 -103* <small>vs</small> Miami Heat [/TD]
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I think Wade and Lebron are out.
 
Keep me up to date B...took a position on this game earlier for the exact reasoning...
 
Might need to lock it in soon, i think chalmers will be out also, official announcement will be around 5:15.
 
New line...

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[TD="align: left"]Mar 31[/TD]
[TD]707[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: left"]MIAMI[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+9-102<INPUT value=0_1685342_9_-102 type=checkbox name=text_>[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]o194-102<INPUT value=2_1685342_-194_-102 type=checkbox name=text_>[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+400<INPUT value=4_1685342_0_400 type=checkbox name=text_>[/TD]
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[TD="align: left"]7:05 PM [/TD]
[TD]708[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: left"]SAN ANTONIO[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-9-102<INPUT value=1_1685342_-9_-102 type=checkbox name=text_>[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]u194-102<INPUT value=3_1685342_194_-102 type=checkbox name=text_>[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-500<INPUT value=5_1685342_0_-500 type=checkbox name=text_>[/TD]
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agree. I dont care what people say. THE most difficult.

To each their own opinion but once you see this stuff happen over and over again it really isn't that difficult to figure out. As soon as I saw the players were out I completely avoided the game. If you're not comfortable making the difficult and uncomfortable wager then avoid the game.


When a star player comes back from a long lay off, rust will most likely show and the teammates are a little less inclined to give extra effort now that their star is back.

Its really not that difficult but it goes against common sense most of the time.
 
To each their own opinion but once you see this stuff happen over and over again it really isn't that difficult to figure out. As soon as I saw the players were out I completely avoided the game. If you're not comfortable making the difficult and uncomfortable wager then avoid the game.


When a star player comes back from a long lay off, rust will most likely show and the teammates are a little less inclined to give extra effort now that their star is back.

Its really not that difficult but it goes against common sense most of the time.
Easy to sound smart in hindsight. Not sure I read anyone predicting this outcome in tonight's matchup pre-game.
 
To each their own opinion but once you see this stuff happen over and over again it really isn't that difficult to figure out. As soon as I saw the players were out I completely avoided the game. If you're not comfortable making the difficult and uncomfortable wager then avoid the game.


When a star player comes back from a long lay off, rust will most likely show and the teammates are a little less inclined to give extra effort now that their star is back.

Its really not that difficult but it goes against common sense most of the time.
You have a record to back this bullshit?
 
To each their own opinion but once you see this stuff happen over and over again it really isn't that difficult to figure out. As soon as I saw the players were out I completely avoided the game. If you're not comfortable making the difficult and uncomfortable wager then avoid the game.


When a star player comes back from a long lay off, rust will most likely show and the teammates are a little less inclined to give extra effort now that their star is back.

Its really not that difficult but it goes against common sense most of the time.

u are amazing
 
I don't have any issue with someone saying they're not suprised Miami covered. But to say the SU result isn't anything other than that...
 
I agree with Nbafan that it's not a surprise. Heat won in triple OT against Hawks without Wade and Bron a year a go, Spurs almost won in Miami this season without the trio.
I remember four years ago, when Charlotte (that were almost decent back than), got +8 at home against Boston and I took the bet on them. After that, big trio didn't play for Boston and the line reversed and Boston wiped the floor with them...
Such samples are numerous and make sense.
The team that plays in full roster got zero motivation, because this is not what they thought they would play against, while the subs for the depleted team, have a chance to show their worth...
I wanted to take Spurs and Over here, but had a feeling from the morning that LeBron will sit this one out, so skipped the bet at -2, because wasn't sure that Spurs will win, if LeBron sat.
 
Life lessons...lol

Funny part is that was my only loss this week(nba)...jinx of posting on here ;)
 
The team that plays in full roster got zero motivation, because this is not what they thought they would play against, while the subs for the depleted team, have a chance to show their worth...

There's no doubt Miami won because the Spurs took'em easy (the box score shows it - the only period Miami won was the 3rd: out of halftime, Spurs already up, arrogance on their part makes them think they're just going to roll from there...).

But that's not an excuse, and your other examples lack one crucial component to them that was present in this game. Boston didn't play (& lose to) Charlotte thinking they'd likely meet in the ECFs that year. Atlanta didn't play (& lose to) Miami because they thought they'd be meeting them in the ECFs that year. The Spurs were playing off already having lost once to the team they'd have few doubts they were going to meet in the NBA Finals (the players mindsets have to contain the arrogance/belief that they ARE going to make those finals). Spurs mindset had no excuse being anything other than This is our future finals opponent, we've already lost to them on their home floor but so what if we didn't have out best players playing that day, they took care of business not facing out best guys. Now we gotta show we can take care of business on our home floor not facing their best guys. And indeed, as I just noted, they took care of matters in the 1st half before presumably arrogance on their part out of that break undoubtedly played a part in their demise.
But all that said, they were still only down 7 after 3 qtrs - they faced a minimal deficit with a full period to go, @home, against a team that would be around a .500 one if it played a full NBA season with the roster that took the floor for this game. That they wouldn't win everytime in that situation, is simply the odds. 100% wouldn't be possible (I'd guess they'd win at just around their general home win %, which at 32-4 before tonight's result was .888, so I'd say against a .500 team up 7, period to go? 90% of the time). But to say the times they do lose in that spot not being a suprise? Anyone asserting that, to me, is talking out of their behinds.

Whatever went into that team losing that game (arrogance, ...) it's a pathetic loss they should be ashamed of. Normally I'd be thinking Spurs ATS next game after Pop should have chewed their ears off after this one. But they're 1-7 ATS their last 8. They aren't running on a full tank for now.

More factually, one wonders if TP is fully over the injury that saw his absence for awhile.
 
I bet SAS ML on a very good price with the info thinking I was stealing money with the 32-4 home team. And I actually felt MIA was going to cover 9 but damn SU?!
 
BC, the way I look at it, it's a lose - lose situation. If you play full throttle and win, you just demolished a team without their best players - it counts for nothing. If you lose, you just went all in and lost against depleted team.

I think that to play as if it's a friendly or a D-League game is the right way and I think that Pop never wanted his guys to win big here.

I know that I wouldn't want that as a coach anyway...
 
When a star player comes back from a long lay off, rust will most likely show and the teammates are a little less inclined to give extra effort now that their star is back.

Its really not that difficult but it goes against common sense most of the time.

I agree with Nbafan that it's not a surprise.
The team that plays in full roster got zero motivation, because this is not what they thought they would play against, while the subs for the depleted team, have a chance to show their worth...

These guys both nailed it. When a star is out, the rest of the team usually steps up and the other team lets down. When the star comes back, the rest of the team relaxes because the Star is back to save the day.

Lesson learned...you get the more motivated team and the better line when a star is out.
 
It does not always work..
Last season Portland beat Spurs 137-97 when duncan, parker and ginobili was out
 
have these two played since lebron has been with Miami with both at full strength?.I'd like to see this as the finals
 
they're just taking a page out of pop's book...

really was a great move to sit them...gives a little rest to nagging pain probably...nothing is lost, everything to win in that game....give some of your other players some confidence against a team you might see in the finals...

and if you look at the ending schedules...it was unlikely miami couldn't hold the HCA over SAS...

betting SAS tonight @ memphis was a great bet however....HCA in the west is vital to their chances...Parker is going for redemption
 
Bullshit to say spurs with the best record in home basketball playing for a one seed, aren't a good bet when the heat were missing who they were missing. Anyone who says otherwise is full of shit.
 
I would've slammed my max bet $1000 to have SA -2 against a Lebron and Wade less Miami team.
 
Can't say I haven't taken the bait myself over the years, but the last 2 seasons, I managed to make a very very clear rule to myself - don't bet on games where star player is out.
Never regreted that...
 
First of all, you gotta understand the spurs and pop...

he puts much less weight for 1st seed overall and/or 1st out west....it's all about maintaining the health of his team for a while now.

Then you gotta realize that the second those guys were announced out, the game plan changed for SAS.

Have you ever looked at teams who have an injured player the first game they're out? Usually everyone usually elevates their game and the team rallies. A LOT more then you would expect. This was Miami's opportunity to give other players an opportunity to beat their chests a little. There was plenty of talent on that floor and you cant discount the lack of Ginobli on the floor for SAS either.

I would NOT have slammed a max bet on SAS -2 knowing the line was about to change drastically. To be honest, I didn't think the Spurs were gonna win the game from the beginning. Make of that what you will.
 
So since everyone is talking about what a great bet Miami was now vs Spurs, I assume everyone going large on Heat -2 tonight?!??!?
 
I still didn't see any of these people in here saying play the heat at +2 when I said the 3 starters would likely be out. Who cares if the bench guys play harder, they are on the bench for a reason. Lewis looked miserable out there. Hindsight is always..
 
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