Wiretowire
Pretty much a regular
I promised some folks in here I would show them how I cap MLB once we had enough stats and since I have the morning off I thought this would be a good time to do just that.
There are a few caveats before I begin however. There are 16 games today because KC/CHW are playing a doubleheader. I am not going to include those games because you never know in a DH when a coach will switch up his pitchers and they also rest some of these tulips even this early in the season so you never know who is actually going to play. Best advice, just pass on DH games. There are always plenty of games to bet on without them anyway. Next, I will show you the way I cap and it won't sit well with some. Just look at what I do and then adapt it to what you do taking whatever appeals to you. No one should ever just blindly follow any one capper anyway. It's your money, make up your own mind. That being said I think you will find some of the things I have to say useful. Back to that some won't like what I say thing, I don't care what the odds are. I will bet a team that is -300 if I am reasonably sure they will win based on my numbers and analysis. See? I told you some won't like what I do. But I have been posting my picks with season records for over 20 years on the internet with success so please don't waste my or your time telling me how you can't win giving those high odds. But before you have a coronary just remember I didn't say I will bet ALL -300 teams. I said I won't let high odds stop me from taking the books money.
Now to get on with the capping, my approach is based solely on starters and their stats from the last 3 games they just pitched. I don't read names. Ever. I don't care about team names either. Looking at those will give you false impressions. Betting baseball is tough enough without cluttering up your capping with the fact that some talking head said the Dodgers are going to win so always bet them and never bet against them. For the record those talking heads have said that shit for the last 4 years and tell me how that worked out. Besides, if you look at it even the best teams in the history of the game lost about 1/3 of the games they played in a season. Hopefully the following process will help you find that 1/3.
Another point to make before we get started is as I said my capping is based solely on starters stats. When I discussed this with folks in the past the first thing out of their mouths is but you aren't considering bullpens and they pitch about 1/3 of the game. True, but there is no way to include relievers. If you decide on a team to bet you can look at bullpen stats and add that into your consideration but I say you have to know exactly the situation and exactly which reliever the coach is going to trot out there for that particular situation. If you know that you don't need to know how to cap MLB games because you can already tell the future.
One last thing dropping the 2 games from the DH brings us down to 14 games today. At the time I am writing this there are also 3 teams that didn't list a starter yet MLW, Balt, and LA. (and Cle has a first time starter this year) I am dropping those games as well because they may take all morning to decide so that brings us down to 10 games I will cap. That's enough to give you a sense of what I do.
Here we go. List all the games for the day (I use Covers MLB matchup pages) then look at the listed pitcher and look up their stats for the last 3 starts. No more than 3 or it's ancient history. If the guy starting has no starts this year or was a reliever pass those games as well. Whatever you do don't look at their names. I don't know the name of the pitcher I bet on until I turn on the TV and go oh so it's him! List only earned runs. Not runs in general only the ER stats for the last 3 games and list them most recent first then the other 2 after. This will come clear to you when I do that next.
Once you have this information on the page patterns should start to emerge. I will explain how I read these stats for each game but do this every day and you will be surprised how much better you do betting MLB.
SF 2 4 3
Mia 2 2 4
Miami pitcher is trending better but I don't see an edge so I pass this game side. Under 8 1/2 is possible but I don't like playing unders early in the season. Although that's a pretty high total for this park. Under parks are SF, Miami, CHW, Sea, Mets, SD, Det, and Oak. Under 8 1/2 here is a decent bet.
Pitt 1 0 6
Mets 1 1 3
Don't like that 6 for the Pitt pitcher but he has settled down recently. Mets pitcher is very steady but not at -130 not enough edge. Total again could be under but I'm sure there are better bets and I know there are other days.
Tex 3 3 3
Det 0 4 0
Texas pitcher is consistently bad. And yes Virginia allowing 3 runs every start is bad. The books know it too because they made Det -140 against the defending world champions. A play on Det is ok but there are other games. But the total at 7 with this Texas starter is a good bet. By the way, I am not posting picks in here today. This is all about how I do it but yes, I would take the over 7 since it's so low despite both teams are struggling offensively.
Atl 1 7 3
Hou 8 3 3
Aha! I don't like the 7 the Atlanta pitcher posted 2 starts back but the Houston pitcher is really getting hammered. Forget the total. Here is a bet on Atlanta at a very sweet low road odds of -130.
NYY 4 0
Tor 6 5 1
Pretty clear here as well. Can't pick a side but over a total of 8 1/2 is the bet here. Buy the 1/2 run off and go over 8. Don't have a great read on the NYY pitcher with only two starts but his last allowing 4 coupled with Tor pitcher getting shelled consistently calls for this over bet.
STL 1 0 2
Oak 0 0 0
Both pitchers look very solid. Under 8 is a possibility and nice bet on Oak as a live dog at +120 is a good bet as well. I would probably bet both.
Cubs 4 2 2
AZ 6 5 1
This is an over bet if you buy 1/2 run off the 9 1/2 listed. Or even if you take Cubs as a +110 dog that's a good bet as well. I would just bet the over here myself.
Cinn 1 2 2
Sea 0 0 4
Very deceiving here. Cinn pitcher looks very good and at +120 a live dog but Sea pitcher has settled down nicely recently. I would try Cinn as a dog here but I would also bet under 7 1/2 in this park with these two pitchers.
Col 2 1 3
Phil 1 3 2
Another too close to call when it comes to pitchers but this is where this process comes in handy. No one in their right mind would bet Col to beat Phil in their home park. The bookies call that bettor bias like never betting against the Yankees. But I look only at stats never names of teams or pitchers. Yes, I have said that a million times but I can't stress it enough. No real difference in these pitchers yet the books have set Philly as a -220 favorite. Now you can bet the live dog at +190 or so or you can do what I do and bet Col +2 1/2 runs -180. Think that's wasting money at -180? Take a look at the scores over the last 50 years or so and tell me how many times a team wins by 3 runs. You think it's a lot but it's not and remember we just looked at the stats here and Col could well win this outright. I just cheat and takes runs so I can go to the cashiers window more often. Your choice. Oh, and I never, never, never give runs to the books. In 50 years of gambling I have only met 1 person that gave runs away and won consistently. And she was one helluva capper.
Ana 0 1 1
TB 1 1 0
Very solid pitchers. TB -130 line is where it should be so no advantage there. But here, with these two starters in this park, I would bet the under 8.
Ok, that's how I look at it each and every day. Is there more information I use? Of course, but that comes with experience doing it this way for a very long time. I can't possibly cover everything in one thread but this is the basics of how I cap MLB. Take whatever use you can get out of it but do this every day and I promise you will see patterns you never saw before and your betting will become more effective. I will try to get back in here to answer any questions you have or discussions but I am still working for the next 4 weeks or so so please be patient if I don't respond right away. GL
There are a few caveats before I begin however. There are 16 games today because KC/CHW are playing a doubleheader. I am not going to include those games because you never know in a DH when a coach will switch up his pitchers and they also rest some of these tulips even this early in the season so you never know who is actually going to play. Best advice, just pass on DH games. There are always plenty of games to bet on without them anyway. Next, I will show you the way I cap and it won't sit well with some. Just look at what I do and then adapt it to what you do taking whatever appeals to you. No one should ever just blindly follow any one capper anyway. It's your money, make up your own mind. That being said I think you will find some of the things I have to say useful. Back to that some won't like what I say thing, I don't care what the odds are. I will bet a team that is -300 if I am reasonably sure they will win based on my numbers and analysis. See? I told you some won't like what I do. But I have been posting my picks with season records for over 20 years on the internet with success so please don't waste my or your time telling me how you can't win giving those high odds. But before you have a coronary just remember I didn't say I will bet ALL -300 teams. I said I won't let high odds stop me from taking the books money.
Now to get on with the capping, my approach is based solely on starters and their stats from the last 3 games they just pitched. I don't read names. Ever. I don't care about team names either. Looking at those will give you false impressions. Betting baseball is tough enough without cluttering up your capping with the fact that some talking head said the Dodgers are going to win so always bet them and never bet against them. For the record those talking heads have said that shit for the last 4 years and tell me how that worked out. Besides, if you look at it even the best teams in the history of the game lost about 1/3 of the games they played in a season. Hopefully the following process will help you find that 1/3.
Another point to make before we get started is as I said my capping is based solely on starters stats. When I discussed this with folks in the past the first thing out of their mouths is but you aren't considering bullpens and they pitch about 1/3 of the game. True, but there is no way to include relievers. If you decide on a team to bet you can look at bullpen stats and add that into your consideration but I say you have to know exactly the situation and exactly which reliever the coach is going to trot out there for that particular situation. If you know that you don't need to know how to cap MLB games because you can already tell the future.
One last thing dropping the 2 games from the DH brings us down to 14 games today. At the time I am writing this there are also 3 teams that didn't list a starter yet MLW, Balt, and LA. (and Cle has a first time starter this year) I am dropping those games as well because they may take all morning to decide so that brings us down to 10 games I will cap. That's enough to give you a sense of what I do.
Here we go. List all the games for the day (I use Covers MLB matchup pages) then look at the listed pitcher and look up their stats for the last 3 starts. No more than 3 or it's ancient history. If the guy starting has no starts this year or was a reliever pass those games as well. Whatever you do don't look at their names. I don't know the name of the pitcher I bet on until I turn on the TV and go oh so it's him! List only earned runs. Not runs in general only the ER stats for the last 3 games and list them most recent first then the other 2 after. This will come clear to you when I do that next.
Once you have this information on the page patterns should start to emerge. I will explain how I read these stats for each game but do this every day and you will be surprised how much better you do betting MLB.
SF 2 4 3
Mia 2 2 4
Miami pitcher is trending better but I don't see an edge so I pass this game side. Under 8 1/2 is possible but I don't like playing unders early in the season. Although that's a pretty high total for this park. Under parks are SF, Miami, CHW, Sea, Mets, SD, Det, and Oak. Under 8 1/2 here is a decent bet.
Pitt 1 0 6
Mets 1 1 3
Don't like that 6 for the Pitt pitcher but he has settled down recently. Mets pitcher is very steady but not at -130 not enough edge. Total again could be under but I'm sure there are better bets and I know there are other days.
Tex 3 3 3
Det 0 4 0
Texas pitcher is consistently bad. And yes Virginia allowing 3 runs every start is bad. The books know it too because they made Det -140 against the defending world champions. A play on Det is ok but there are other games. But the total at 7 with this Texas starter is a good bet. By the way, I am not posting picks in here today. This is all about how I do it but yes, I would take the over 7 since it's so low despite both teams are struggling offensively.
Atl 1 7 3
Hou 8 3 3
Aha! I don't like the 7 the Atlanta pitcher posted 2 starts back but the Houston pitcher is really getting hammered. Forget the total. Here is a bet on Atlanta at a very sweet low road odds of -130.
NYY 4 0
Tor 6 5 1
Pretty clear here as well. Can't pick a side but over a total of 8 1/2 is the bet here. Buy the 1/2 run off and go over 8. Don't have a great read on the NYY pitcher with only two starts but his last allowing 4 coupled with Tor pitcher getting shelled consistently calls for this over bet.
STL 1 0 2
Oak 0 0 0
Both pitchers look very solid. Under 8 is a possibility and nice bet on Oak as a live dog at +120 is a good bet as well. I would probably bet both.
Cubs 4 2 2
AZ 6 5 1
This is an over bet if you buy 1/2 run off the 9 1/2 listed. Or even if you take Cubs as a +110 dog that's a good bet as well. I would just bet the over here myself.
Cinn 1 2 2
Sea 0 0 4
Very deceiving here. Cinn pitcher looks very good and at +120 a live dog but Sea pitcher has settled down nicely recently. I would try Cinn as a dog here but I would also bet under 7 1/2 in this park with these two pitchers.
Col 2 1 3
Phil 1 3 2
Another too close to call when it comes to pitchers but this is where this process comes in handy. No one in their right mind would bet Col to beat Phil in their home park. The bookies call that bettor bias like never betting against the Yankees. But I look only at stats never names of teams or pitchers. Yes, I have said that a million times but I can't stress it enough. No real difference in these pitchers yet the books have set Philly as a -220 favorite. Now you can bet the live dog at +190 or so or you can do what I do and bet Col +2 1/2 runs -180. Think that's wasting money at -180? Take a look at the scores over the last 50 years or so and tell me how many times a team wins by 3 runs. You think it's a lot but it's not and remember we just looked at the stats here and Col could well win this outright. I just cheat and takes runs so I can go to the cashiers window more often. Your choice. Oh, and I never, never, never give runs to the books. In 50 years of gambling I have only met 1 person that gave runs away and won consistently. And she was one helluva capper.
Ana 0 1 1
TB 1 1 0
Very solid pitchers. TB -130 line is where it should be so no advantage there. But here, with these two starters in this park, I would bet the under 8.
Ok, that's how I look at it each and every day. Is there more information I use? Of course, but that comes with experience doing it this way for a very long time. I can't possibly cover everything in one thread but this is the basics of how I cap MLB. Take whatever use you can get out of it but do this every day and I promise you will see patterns you never saw before and your betting will become more effective. I will try to get back in here to answer any questions you have or discussions but I am still working for the next 4 weeks or so so please be patient if I don't respond right away. GL
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