Thirsty Thursday MLB Plays

[E.T.G.]

96-75-5 +$3,100.60

It was a good day at the office for most people today, good to get back to normal after some wack shit on Tuesday..Its time for me to just build on today. Thats all, no more bullshit, no stupid plays. Going to find 2 winners out of this list of plays. Pretty interesting card


Cubs -102 / Braves -108.....O/U 8.5:

Ok so the Cubbies are 3-1 w/out Lou and now he is back to coach, lol, do they start losing again? This game is a rematch of last weeks game where the Braves won 5-3, of course the Cubs bullpen had some input into the ending of that game, giving up 1run in the 8th and 1run in the 9th to break a tie game.

How the Pitchers performed:

Hill: ND, 7ip, 4h, 3r, 1er, 1bb, 6k
James: ND. 6ip, 6h, 2er, 4bb, 4k

Pitchers Career Wise vs. Opponent:

Hill: 2-0, 0.87era, 3g, 20.2ip, 14h, 2er, 6bb, 19k
James: 0-0, 2.77era, 2g, 13ip, 12h, 4er, 5bb, 10k

Pitchers last 3 starts:

Hill: 0-1, 19ip, 13h, 2.84era, 5bb, 17k
James: 1-1, 16.2ip, 2.70era, 9bb, 14k

Hill away this yr: 2-3, 3.40era, 7g, 45ip, 31h, 15bb, 43k.. Batters hitting .191 off him and .197 overall

James home this yr: 1-2, 3.26era, 4g, 19.1ip, 23h, 11bb, 16k.. Batters hitting .307 off him and .281 overall

Cubs vs. LHP: .249 overall, .277 Last 10games
Braves vs. LHP: .266 overall, .283 Last 10games

Cubs are 3-1 last 4 games....Braves are 1-3 last 4 games.
Cubs hitting .298 over that span, avg 7runs/game...Braves hitting .244 over that span, avg 3run/game.

Series this yr: 3-2 Braves

Cubs are 14-15 on the road
Braves are 16-14 at home

THOUGHTS:

Cubs struggle in ATL (0-2 this yr, 2-8 L10) and the Braves are struggling right now. If it were not for a comeback in the 7th inning vs. the Marlins, they would have been swept. To be short, they have not looked good this wk and are not hitting, no matter which pitcher they face. The Cubs are pretty hard team to bet, everyone knows that. Ramirez left the game today vs. the Brewers and he won't play in this game, might not play the whole series and that HURTS the Cubs offense. Both pitchers have success vs. their opponents in the times they have faced them. Hill, despite hitting a rocky stretch of 3 games where he gave up 5er (Phils), 4er (NYM), 5er (SD) still sports a 2.89era on the yr and rebounded nicely from that stretch with his last start vs. ATL. James has now gone 7 straight starts without surrendering more than 3er, pretty impressive. It concerns me that he gets hit at .307 at home and .281 overall. Hill has been pretty unhittable this yr sporting a .197overall against hitters. I think he has success vs. the Braves because they are a high strikeout team and that plays into what he does as a pitcher and his curveball. There is no question that the Cubs bullpen is a HUGGGGGE liability here. Another thing that concerns me, the Cubs are just 4-7 when Hill pitches, the guy has a 2.89era this yr and they only have won 4 of his 11 starts. The Braves are 7-5 when Chuckie pitches. I would expect the Braves to remain without McCann tomorrow and the loss of Chipper is hurting this offense. I think line movement wise, the Braves get a lot of backing and the Cubs become +money tomorrow. That is what it would take for me to bet them atleast. As far as an O/U goes, I have an interest in that because each pitcher is capable of 6-7 shutdown innings in this game. The loss of Ramirez hurts the Cubs offense (.500 in 4ab vs. James)... I would like to see an ump for the game and check the weather, both of which I have not done yet. Baseball is a streaky sport and that is why I would have to go with the hotter team this wk, which just happens to be the Cubs if I were to choose a side. I can't bet the Braves and "hope" that the offense turns it on because Hill has had success vs them and they have shown very little signs of life this week.

lean to the Cubs if it were +money, lean to the Under 8.5-110 stronger.


Breaking down the following games:

Phillies -102 / Mets -108
Astros -149 / Rockies +139
Giants +109 / DBacks -119
Boston -135 / Oakland +125
Yankees -122 / WSox +112

 

[E.T.G.]

Phillies -103 / Mets -107... O 7.5 -115 / U 7.5 -105:

Very interesting game here. First, I have a secret mancrush on Hamels, which isn't so secret anymore. Second, Philly is going for a Sweep of NYM in Shea. Hamels and Maine faced off previously this yr in NY, the Mets won the game 11-5 but don't let the score trick you, Mets scored 7 runs in the bottom of the 8th and had 4 unearned runs that game.

Hamels this yr: 8-2, 3.55era, 12g, 2cg, 83.2ip, 75h, 11hr, 21bb, 91k
Hamels L3 games: 2-1, 21ip, 17h, 4.29era, 4bb, 21k
Hamels vs. Mets this yr: 0-0, 3.00era, 1g, 6ip, 6h, 2er, 3bb, 7k
Hamels Career vs. Mets: 1-0, 1.29era, 2g, 14ip, 10h, 2er, 3bb, 16k
Hamels Away this yr: 4-1, 3.92era, 6g, 41.1ip, 40h, 14bb, 53k and batters hitting .256 off him and .240 overall

Maine this yr: 6-3, 2.81era, 11g, 67.1ip, 53h, 34bb, 64k
Maine L3 games: 1-2, 4.76era, 17ip, 17h, 7bb, 19k
Maine vs. Philly this yr: 0-0, 3.86era, 1g, 4.2ip, 5h, 2er, 6bb, 4k
Maine Career vs. Philly: 3-0, 2.35era, 4g, 23ip, 21h, 6er, 11bb, 14k
Maine home this yr: 1-3, 4.13era, 5g, 28.1ip, 32h, 14bb, 24 and batters hitting .286 off him and .221 overall

Mets vs. Hamels:

Beltran = .400 in 5ab, Delgado = .500 in 4ab, LoDuca = .000 in 6ab, Reyes = .286 in 7ab, Wright = .000 in 6ab

Phillies vs. Maine:

Burrell = .250 in 12ab, Rollins = .091 in 11ab, Utley = .500 in 10ab, Victorino = .250 in 8ab, Howard = .200 in 10ab

Phillies have won 4 of their last 5 games
Mets have lost 4 of their last 5 games

Series this yr is tied 3-3

Going into Wednesdays game, Phillies batting .217 and averaging 3.85 runs/game.....Mets batting .225 and averaging 2.85 runs/game

Noteable injuries: Mets will most likely be without Easley at 2b and Chavez in LF, both are doubtful. Replacing them will be Newhan/Johnson (LF), Gomez (RF), and Gotay (2b)...Mets are very top heavy order tomorrow w/ the Pitcher to anchor.

THOUGHTS:

I like Hamels a lot and think the kid is going to be something special one day as long as he stays healthy. He has the higher era but imo I don't think that Maine's era of 2.81 truly reflects what he has looked like lately. Maine posts a 4.76era over his last 3 games and while I think that is high, his era falls in the range of 3.75-4.25 on the yr imo, not 2.81..The Phillies are 8-4 when Hamels pitches and the Mets are 8-3 when Maine throws, something has to give here. On the yr, Mets hit LHP at .319, a mind blowing number however this number is now at .276 in L10 games.. Phillies hit RHP better than they do LHP and on the yr avg .274 and .263 in L10 games. I think most people feel Mets crush LHP but I am starting to feel that their numbers are regressing to a more normal number and a number in range with how the Phillies hit RHP. Now its pretty hard to understand why Maine struggles at home and his home numbers are not even close to him overall numbers or his away numbers. Batters are hitting .286 off Maine when he pitches in Shea. Hamels has had a problem this yr with the long ball, giving up 11hr's this yr, the good thing is that he doesnt walk many batters to really kill himself with the HR's. Shea is a pretty big park so he might be able to keep it in the park. The Mets are suffering from some injuries and lineup is getting lighter. Alou, Valentin, and Green have been down, now Easley and Chavez will be unavailble.. A potential lineup could look something like this, not sure what order but pretty sure on the players:

Reyes (SS), Gotay (2b), Beltran (CF), Delgado (1b), Wright (3b), LoDuca (C), Newhan (LF), Gomez (RF), Maine (P)...

Hamels has to avoid letting Reyes, Beltran, or Delgado beat him, the only 3 batters in the Mets lineup with any type of success off him. Hamels should be able to get through the bottom part of the order with little trouble. Philly bullpen always puts a scare and some risk into a play but Hamels averages 7ip/start on the yr. Maine averages 6ip/start and has not worked into the 7th inning in any of his last 6 starts. As far as line movement comes in, Hamels is a pretty well known and liked pitcher but the Mets have a lot of backers so that "avoid the sweep" money could be coming in which in that cause would basically drop Hamels to +money.

lean to the Phillies

 

[E.T.G.]

Astros -149/ -1.5 +100:

This writeup doesn't need as much detail as the others.

Oswalt this yr: 6-4, 3.20era, 13g, 90ip, 81h, 29bb, 57k
Oswalt L3 games: 0-2, 4.50era, 20ip, 23h, 6bb, 10k
Oswalt vs. Rockies Career: 5-1, 1.73era, 6g, 41.2ip, 36h, 6bb, 31k
Oswalt away: 2-3, 5.91era, 5g, 32ip, 39h, 13bb, 19k and batters hitting .298 off him on the road and .238 overall

Oswalt hasn't been the pitcher we all know lately and on the road this yr and I think what he needs is a good dose of the Rockies. A team that he has his way with over his career.

Rockies vs. Oswalt:

Atkins = .400 in 5ab, Hawpe = .333 in 9ab, Helton = .294 in 17ab, Matsui = .429 in 7ab, Torreabla = .200 in 5ab.

Doesnt seem like 6 games worth of pitching experience vs. this Rockies team and its not. Oswalt only faced the Rockies one time in 06': 7ip, 8h, 2er, 1bb, 4k....one time in 05': 7ip, 6h, 0er, 1bb, 6k...one time in 04': 7ip, 5h, 1er, 0bb, 6k.

The Rockies have of course replaced some players in that time frame and so the career numbers are not that relevant but I just don't believe that Oswalt can be that bad on the road. Its worth mentioning that the Rockies will start Josh Fogg in this game, fresh off the D/L...

Fogg this yr: 1-5, 4.53era, 10g, 53.2ip, 61h, 22bb, 33k
Fogg at home: 0-3, 5.59era, 4g, 19.1ip, 24h, 7bb, 12k
Fogg vs. Astros in Career: 3-6, 6.09era, 13g, 75.1ip, 77h, 51er, 32bb, 38k

Astros vs. Fogg:

Ausmus = .286 in 21ab, Berkman = .400 in 25ab, Biggio = .242 in 33ab, Burke = .286 in 7ab, Ensberg = .385 in 13ab, Everett = .154 in 13ab, Lamb = .409 in 22ab, Loretta = .333 in 9ab


THOUGHTS:

This is a play on Oswalt not being as bad as he has been on the road as much as it is of a fade vs. Josh Fogg. I will go ahead and do a -1 on this game to get some better odds and I understand the Astros are a tough team to bet on but they are in one of these W-L-W-L-W-L type streaks and due for a W after the loss in Wednesdays game..They get their Ace on the mound against a bum, don't mean to be so harsh but Fogg is no good.. Astros offense has picked it up this last week as well and they really should not struggle with Fogg. Rockies are 3-6 when Fogg pitches this yr, Astros are 6-7 when Oswalt pitches and that is bad but these numbers have to revert back to their averages sooner or later and Oswalt has not had over a 4.00era on the road in the last 3 yrs. This is one of those games I just have a feeling about and hope that feeling is right.

 

[E.T.G.]

Astros -1 $550 to Win $438.54
Astros ML $330 to Win $218.54
Astros -1.5 $220 to WIN $220

I went with a Astros-1 play here for some better odds in the early game. Basically didn't feel like fucking with the math thats why there is $1.46 difference but none the less, I feel good about the Astros winning this game, worse comes to worse and its only by 1 than I'll walk away from the early game in a push. Everything I have to say about this game is above, just a feel I have for the Astros here.


I will have to do a lot of line stalking and try to figure out what is going to happen with these lines but for now I am off to bed.

GL to all

 

[Terpman92]

<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">GL everything on the stros! Nice writeup bro!
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[Yanks27Sox9]

great info, bro. with you on Roy tomorrow.

 

[Satyr]

good luck tonight Green. :shake:: cheers: excellent stuff as always.

 

[The Farm]

GL with the plays green

 

[reNew Orleans]

GL with the stros green. I guess you are going with the Josh Fogg sucks theory/coming back off injury. Hope Oswalt turns it around on his round starts.

 

[E.T.G.]

Terp - Thanks, BOL
Yanks - Lets hope Roy comes to pitch
Satyr - Thanks, best of luck
Farm - Best of luck to you as well
Renew - Surging Astro offense, Fogg off the D/L, I don't think Oswalt can pitch any worse on the road, little combo of factors..

Ok, little pissed about the Astros line dropping only because I could have gotten better value if I waited, I don't care that the line dropped in general. I am counting on the Stros to start the day off right..

I have to coach again tonight at 5:30 so I have to place my bets for tonight before that. Its between:

Phillies +101
Cubs +103 / Under 8.5-120

As far as the Philly games goes, I seem to be in the 10% that wants to back Philly, and 1% not from Philly that would back them...I have no problem being in the minority but the line change sure doesn't reflect the amount of people on the Mets today. More people on the Mets to avoid the sweep than any game this week. I wrote this in the discussion thread and I've posted this on another forum and basically no one wants to debate me or tell me why they like the Mets besides the two most popular reasons "They hit LHP" and "Avoid the Sweep".. A big part of me feels that I have covered everything there is to cover in this game and might just have to stick to my guns..Heres the other writeup..


WHY DO YOU LIKE THE METS??

Above I posted my breakdown but I have a few things to add about this game.

People keep saying "Mets kill LHP" but I don't exactly buy that. At one point they were hitting LHP at .331, now its .317 overall and .276 in their last 10 games. I think that # is inflated and it is near impossible to maintain that type of average. I think it begins a downward march to a more sustainable average of .280-.290, still good but not .317 good.

Another reason why people are backing the Mets is simply "they can't get swept" and originally that concerned me but baseball is a streaky sport and this team is in a bad funk.

Mets: 3-5 last 8 games, batting .180, average 2.75runs/game over that span.

They are not a dominant home team (17-15)

The lineup is weak as hell today:

Reyes (SS), Gotay (2b), Beltran (CF), Delgado (1b), Wright (3b), LoDuca (C), Newhan (LF), Gomez (RF), Maine (P)...

The bullpen has just fucked up the last 2 nights.

Also want to add the pitchers they have faced lately:

Eaton = 6ip, 5h, 2er, 2bb, 4k
Moyer = 7ip, 8h, 2er, 2bb, 1k ***(LHP)
Davis = 7.2ip, 6h, 1er, 3bb, 6k *** (LHP)
Hernandez = 6ip, 8h, 3er, 2bb, 2k
Webb = 8ip, 4h, 1r, 0er, 1bb, 8k
Cain = 7ip, 10h, 4er, 2bb, 5k
Zito = 7ip, 6h, 0er, 1bb, 7k **** (LHP)
Lincecum = 7ip, 3h, 3er, 3bb, 8k

Of the 8 games, 3 have been against LHP and they total:

21.2ip, 20h, 3er, 6bb, 14k

Now as more NYM money comes in, we are looking at Hamels +110 type line and there is def value there.

 

[slim5150]

green. very excellent information. I had a brief interest in this game last night, but nothing real exciting here. Funny thing is, the one factor that caught my eye last night was the Mets success against LHP. Well, given what you have written above, I could come up with nothing concrete to oppose those stats.

SOmetimes I just don't dig deep enough to see the why is this stat good or not, and you have done that quite well. So much so in fact, I may add Philly as a play. Philly is just normally one of those teams I don't bother with too much.

With all things going into this game the same, I would wonder where the line would have been set had Maine won his last time out.

I am in total agreement that more mets money should be coming in and push this higher. I know you said you had a game to coach, but being on Matchbook around gametime for a game whre you think money should move a side a great deal is beneficial. For Example, the other day I had the Padres (Young v Schmidt) from 5Dimes overnight @ -139. In the morning the line had jumped up to -146, and there it stayed for most of the day. It was a night game so when I got off work at 9 and settled in to listen to the game on MLB.com, I looked at the offerings on matchbook. It got all the way up to 160. Now I waffled on that game a bit but thought I had the right side and rode it out, but a 21 cent movement was almost hard to pass up.

What I am really trying to say is right before gametime Matchbook sometimes has some sweet odds.

 

[outstanding]

GL today

 

[E.T.G.]

Alright guys, I have to go coach and this sucks because I was going to decide to bet based on the Astro game. Well its 6-4 top 9th and I could end up pushing/losing/winning, I don't know with the bullpen. I wish I knew the outcome of this game but I have to go and won't be back until later.


I have dug through this game many times and I have to go with my feelings here. I had this line written down as -105 yesterday around its opening and now its +102. Not a huge movement at all but everywhere you look, every1 and their mother is on the Mets. Maybe the Mets money hasnt come in yet but I have a game to coach so I don't have until 7:00 to wait.

I've look and tried to find out what it is that people like about the Mets tonight and the only 2 answers I can find are:

"They kill LHP" and "They can't get swept at home"

If those are the only 2 reasons people have then I can hang my hat and not be mad about this game if it loses. I have crunched every number there is to crunch about it and they point me in a different direction about the Mets.

Lastly I have to follow my feelings and they tell me that Phillies are the side to play.

Everything I can possibly say about this game is said above, in summary; Mets are not hitting right now whether it be LHP or RHP, they are a .500 home team, have a weaker lineup today, Maine has been average his last 2 starts, and Philly is a hotter team with a better pitcher.


Phillies $438.50 to Win $460.43


If Astros hold on and win this game by 2, then I will push at worse today 1-1 -$0. Its a risk I am willing to take on this game. Line is going to get hit hard in the next hour and I wish I could get more value but I am pressed for time.

GL TO ALL

 

[E.T.G.]

I can't take getting beat like this anymore. I need to move my money to a book with 5inning lines. Amazing how my 14-15-16yr old kids can hold a lead, better yet, they can CLOSE A GAME.

Rockies score 3 runs in the 9th, they had 4 all game.. Thats fuken terrible. BAD BULLPENS = MONEY GONE

 

[shakes]

That Houston bullpen used to be solid. I have no fuggin clue what happened.

As for 5 inning lines, I am at a book that has it, and I thought about it, but I figured it wouldn't really come down to it. Wheeler only got one out...on a friggin sac fly.