Theory Questions

[johnci]

2 questions.

1. How do you feel about trading overperforming players for underperforming players, when both have a proven history that suggests they should both move towards a mean that winds up with them even at the end of the year? Example- I am thinking about offering Larry Fitz for Calvin Johnson, D Thomas, or ODB. I drafted Fitz expecting good things from him and Palmer being healthy together, but no one thought Fitz would be a top 10 player through 5 weeks.

2. Do running backs become more valuable later in the season as the weather turns? I am a WR heavy team, with some weakness at RB. I think the way the NFL has evolved, and with a lack of mid-tier talent at RB, WRs have been a priority. I am wondering if I need to adjust this thinking and my roster as we move into the colder months. Is there a history of pass-heavy offenses slowing in the winter?

 

[Mo]

I would assume it would have to be case specific. I.E. Demarco Murray Last year and Devonta Freeman this year. We all know the results if you traded Murray last year. I traded Frewman 2 weeks ago thinking he would have a drop off. He hasn't. So I guess it's sort of a gamble in itself. With Peyton's regression, both Demarius and Sanders have also regressed. You would have to analyze each specific case. In regards to you RB question. I feel it's good to go RB heavy when drafting. It's working so far for me this year. But it's still early. I don't think weather changes much when you are evaluating value for positions. It's a pass friendly league that's for sure. But even the most pass heavy teams have decent mid tier RB. RB are key.

 

[reNew Orleans]

1) Isnt this the point of trading in any fantasy league? You take a gamble on breakout players or buy low on guys. Its more about your teams situation if you have to trade to win now or can stash a guy for future use.

2) Dont think weather is a huge factor except in extreme situations that are usually outliers. Think you are better off knowing what teams are trying to stay healthy and playing for the playoffs, or what teams are tanking and just getting their young guys experience.