Theory concerning umpires

[tuck321]

When I first started watching umpires it was a simple world. Over umps called lots of balls, men got on base through walks and were brought home with hits. Under umps called lots of strikes so men strike out and with few base runners the games went under. Exceptions were going to even out over time--- Time passed.
Still seems like a reasonable way of looking at things but I am honestly not so firm a believer. Just a guess but I tend to think now that umpires can be Clutch in one direction or another. The high strike percentage ump who goes over steadily is calling strikes right up till bases loaded and the pitcher really needs a call and then ---thumbs down as the game goes over. The ump who calls very few strikes is stingy right up until the very inportant spot where the pitcher really needs a call and then --he gives it to him and we scratch our heads and wonder what happened. Not talking about fixed games here. I am saying I think unconsciously these umpires flip directions in key spots. No real proof. Just a theory.

 

[RetroVK]

I have seen this a few times too tuck. Wish i had made note of who the umpires were. I still think it is few and far between and even in the cases where it occurs i am not sure it occurs from the same guys consistently. There are going to be inconsistencies and fluctuations just like with the players. but maybe it is something we should look at more closely. I hate when the strike zone is tiny until the game hits the over number and then seems to shrink down. The NBA has rocked the foundation of my trust in all of the leagues , as if watching raider games for the last quarter century hadn't done that already.

Have to be sure that it is the umpires strike zone that is changing as well. There are a few pitchers who struggle more/less to throw strikes depending on whether they have to throw out of the stretch or not ( in other words whether the bases are clear or not).

Interesting theory , i guess the best way to check this out is to get the high strike percentage guys with lots of runs scored ( and the opposite of course ) and see whether or not it happens with any regularity.

Certainly something worth considering.

 

[SportsNut]

I actually this is another a great Tuck observation . I cant say if I noticed this season , last season , the season before or wheneverbut its definetly been on my subconscious mind. Which is probably why at times I have spoken about the use or IMO misuse of umpires . You really cant say what an ump is going to give a pitcher or not give a pitcher . Things happen in the flow of the game and all to often we see a tight ump suddenly expand his zone with runners on or the guy calling anything close a strike suddenly squeeze a couple key batters. I do think its something even the umps dont realize but I also think we see it the deeper games get . The strike zones from the 7th inning on seem to differ from the early part of games.

I like he brought this us because as I said before the ump correlation is a very tricky topic. My last rant on the topic talked about how important the actually total set and how accurate was in making decisions based on umps . You have to remember and I said this last time as well dont need help from umps . Take Jobe Chamberlain . If he is on his game the ump is only going to make incredibly tough to hit to near impossible to hit . However Mike Mussina is getting squeezed then it can directly effect the outcome of his pitching as will a command artist like him greatly benefit from a wider zone.

Alot of this is probably happeneing IMO as we see more younger umps come into the game .

I said this last time as well UMPS dont control games or outcomes . They are sort of the caretakers. They influence the game but they do not control it all. Anyone who played the game seriously will tell you that . In fact almost everytime a manger gets into an arguement with an ump its because he is seemingly taking control of the game . Remember UMPS are just regular people and all of us who played sports howmany Umps and refs do you remember fondly ?

I think if you ever got Shortline and I in a room together uninterrupted for a month or so we could put together an incredible database . However its so extremely time consuming . Also I think people miss this MOST important fact of UNDERSTANDING UMPS and strike % . The totals the games UMPed are of extreme importance as are the SP . Why ? Just commonsense . If you have lower totals chances are you have superior SP . All good SP throw alot of strikes ? How many good and better SP can you name who had serious control problems ? Think about that . So if an ump calls alot of low totals 7 to 8.5 range and we can glance see he always has a high quality SP going is it really his influence calling 63 or 64% strikes ? Not at all and that is mistake I see around here . Same as if saying this guy is an over ump because he avgs 61% strikes . Then you look and all his totals were 9.5 and 10 . Well again logic says that the SP is these type games tend to be of lesser quality therefore they will throw less strikes . Thats the nature of the game .

Which is why I started talking with Shortline about looking more at totals in the 8 to 9.5 range because really outside of that area you have either above avg SP or below avg SP. However there just isnt enough time to really look at what has occurred and decipher at .

So next time you making an ump related decision on total look at the big picture and many guys say they do but I am not sure I believe them . Start first with the total posted and its accuracy then go down the line of things like who is SP , how are teams hitting and hit in the past vs these SP< what relievers may see action , weather , perception of how the game will played out and lastly the UMPs effect .

It's a great tool to have but I know all to well the more info out there the harder the decisions which is why books and sites have this shit available to everyone . They can understand the betting patterns much better if they give us all the info ahead of time and see how we react .Its almost like a case study .

I wish I could take umps everyday but there just isnt enough time . Last thing is an ump can have a tight ass strike zone and walk the bases loaded but if that team is slumping all the help in the world isnt going to help them score runs not even a TEE at home plate .

So understand the true role of an UMP . Hitters dont worry much about who is umping when they get into the batters box. They may go up there thinking I know he has a wide zone gotta swing at the close ones or I know he is tight I can be little more slective. However for anyone who played baseball you know its a reactive sport . You see the ball coming out of the pitchers hand and you have a split second to react ...swing or dont swing . So there is no time for rational thought its a reaction to what your eyes see and all the practice you have had. Now SP probably know more about UMPs then any player because you want to know what to expect as they have days to formulate a gameplan which could be tweaked . When UMPS are obviously influencing a game then something is wrong they are doing there job correctly .

Also of interest would be what Stadiums use QuesTech . In general though its still about understanding the players before the umps. If a guy throws nothing but strikes and the unp gives him every close pitch what does it matter if he cant fool one Hitter ? The ball will be in play everytime .

Enough banter from me . The simple plot is you want to find UMPS who clearly call games that can change results . If Sabathia is dueling Wang and both teams have injuries then whats the suprise if the game went under ? The suprise and the gusy we want to identify would be the UMP who somewhat regularly has that situation and instead of 1-0 its 4-4 by the 5th inning.so we want guys who skew the obvious.....

Keep this discussion going and offer your opinions on the way to get an excellent database set up. Shortline's is ridiculous in info but I would like to break the info down better . :shake:

 

[Shortline]

Excellent thread on umps...

When I started putting my database together, it was geared toward umps. I wanted to verify the 60.5 - 63.5 strike % theory. So...here it is:

Strike % less than 60.5% = 56% OVERS
Strike % greater than 63.5% = 58% UNDER

Yes, the theory looks to be a winner...BUT, you must have a crystal ball to know what ump is going to call those strike % for those games. NOT EASY. Even when they do call 55% strikes for some games, slumping hitting teams still might not go OVER the total (seen it many times) and vice versa. Like SN said so perfectly,

Start first with the total posted and its accuracy then go down the line of things like who is SP , how are teams hitting and hit in the past vs these SP< what relievers may see action , weather , perception of how the game will played out and lastly the UMPs effect .

That is a great formula SN laid out for anyone who bets the bases.

 

[RetroVK]

The one thing that i think a lot of people miss is the influence the strike zone has on the batter though.

If the umpire has a large strike zone , the batter feels more compelled to defend the plate , .... that is , when the pitch is borderline and a tough pitch , the batter is more likely to swing. The opposite is true of the tight strike zone. The batter can sit on the middle of the plate. So after a few innings have gone by the starter and the batters know roughly what the zone is ..... the sp will now have to throw strikes more over the meat of the plate when the zone is tight .... so now the pitcher is throwing strikes but is more hittable. This is why figuring out the umpires actual zone might be more important than the actual strike percentage ( though i think in general this is a good indicator ). The players adjust.

Hope i made clear what i am trying to say .... It isnot just the size of the umpires zone but the adjustments the pitchers and batters have to make to that zone.

BIG EARLY STRIKE ZONE= PITCHERS CAN NIBBLE, BATTERS DEFEND PLATE
SMALL EARLY STRIKE ZONE=PITCHERS CANT NIBBLE, BATTERS CAN WAIT FOR PITCH OVER THE ZONE

It builds on itself.

 

[SportsNut]

The one thing that i think a lot of people miss is the influence the strike zone has on the batter though.

If the umpire has a large strike zone , the batter feels more compelled to defend the plate , .... that is , when the pitch is borderline and a tough pitch , the batter is more likely to swing. The opposite is true of the tight strike zone. The batter can sit on the middle of the plate. So after a few innings have gone by the starter and the batters know roughly what the zone is ..... the sp will now have to throw strikes more over the meat of the plate when the zone is tight .... so now the pitcher is throwing strikes but is more hittable. This is why figuring out the umpires actual zone might be more important than the actual strike percentage ( though i think in general this is a good indicator ). The players adjust.

Hope i made clear what i am trying to say ....

BIG EARLY STRIKE ZONE= PITCHERS CAN NIBBLE, BATTERS DEFEND PLATE
SMALL EARLY STRIKE ZONE=PITCHERS CANT NIBBLE, BATTERS CAN WAIT FOR PITCH OVER THE ZONE

It builds on itself.

Its a good point. The problem is that the player doesnt know what the strike zone is going to be until he steps in home plate . Scouting reports are great but whether umps or pitchers its all different in the batters box. Like I said its a reaction so if they think its borderline they might let it go and see what happens one day and not another day . How many borderline pitches in a game ? Some games might feel like one every other ab and some others every other inning . It's one of those things we cant pin down because every ump , with every pitcher vs a different batter . Every day is different . The variable are always changing . Which is why the primary thing people ask for an UMP is consistency . Which plays into your point .

I guess my point is we cant think to mechanical . We are intelligent guys we understand the advantages and disadvantages to certain strike zones . Its just how do we apply it . Good point more about what type of strike zone ...do you get the edges or high / low ? Nice to know that profile of an ump I agree . However does it matter whose calling Brandon Webbs 's games ? Not really .

Take a guy like Wade Boggs he always said he would not change the strike zone he spent a lifetime learning to adjust to one umpire. Now I know that is an extreme example but you wonder how many vets go up there with that type mindset . We all see veteran guys basically letting every close pitch go by and acting as if its a ball even before the UMP calls it .

So I think we are assuming to much about the hitter and his approach . Athletes are stubborn they want to do it there way just as people are stubborn enjoying the mentality they are right . Does a hitter expand his zone due to what an ump is calling ? I think more in a single atbat then an entire game. Maybe you get a hitter disagreeing on a pitch and instead of 2-1 its 1-2 and you get that frustration swing on anything close or a 3-1 pitch that was thought to be ball 4 and is 3-2 instead. It does happen but its such a minor thing in the big scheme IMO. I dont think an ump influences every atbat for 9 innings which people seem to believe . A guy pitching well can shake off a near miss in a crucial situation while a guy going bad it might be the beginning of a huge inning .

For me bottomline players will decide what happens . Thats why hitters get hits on 0-2 counts and pitchers like Volzquez succeed throwing 1st pitch strikes only 50% of the time. They are alot of variances.

Actually I think if you look at catchers on teams the result sbecome more clear then UMPS. They have alot more influence then an umpire IMO .

All good chatter fellas:shake:

 

[RetroVK]

Well , i am not advocating blindly betting based on umpires in a vacuum. Just saying tht one needs to examine the umpire for every game , the way he does hitting , day/night splits, days rest etc etc etc. It is one more tool to making good bets. I would really have to like the over or under with certain umpires there to go against their trends though.

 

[counselor]

You and Shortline, in a room together? For a month?

Wow...I bet there'd be A LOT of interesting stories to come out of that...

 

[SportsNut]

Well , i am not advocating blindly betting based on umpires in a vacuum. Just saying tht one needs to examine the umpire for every game , the way he does hitting , day/night splits, days rest etc etc etc. It is one more tool to making good bets. I would really have to like the over or under with certain umpires there to go against their trends though.

Sorry VK if I came off that way . I know your not and was only offering my opinion on the subject . I agree with what your saying . The jist of what I am getting at is the ump is just one of many factors we need to look at but probably a few thinsg more important before we get to that point . For all the benefits a particular ump may have for the hitter or pitcher its still up to the player to execute . I get your point about how the ump is making easier for the hitter or pitcher to do there job . Just saying I prefer player performance and accuracy of totals before the ump comes into play .

Whatever helps you to make correct decisions is whats best for the indivual . What works for me may not for someone else. I was simply saying dont box yourself (and not you in general) with the guy calling balls and strikes . Thats all . :cheers:

 

[FRITO]

i think it's impossible to figure it out - other than keeping win/loss records
(which is just as easy to do with the team/teams that you're checking on)
they're all human beings with - thoughts, feelings, moods, likes, dislikes - we would never know if an ump really (hated or loved) a team or a player.
they won't make it public knowledge their (like or dislike)of a team/player.
i think the ump angle is the toughest angle to figure out - they're human.
assuming they do their job how they're supposed to - the bats decide it.
there's so many different angles to have to look at in this particular sport
(IMO, i think it's all about the team and their bats - who's on/off today)
of course the pitching is important too - can the batters hit him today ?

[trying to figure this out has been going on for 100 years -it will continue]

 

[GWarner27]

things have got to even out over time, as one ump can't consistently get the Santana-Webb match-ups and not the De La Rosa-Misch ones. For that reason, I think the more games a guy umps in a season, the easier it is to understand his tendencies in order to use him to confirm a lean into a wager.

 

[SportsNut]

things have got to even out over time, as one ump can't consistently get the Santana-Webb match-ups and not the De La Rosa-Misch ones. For that reason, I think the more games a guy umps in a season, the easier it is to understand his tendencies in order to use him to confirm a lean into a wager.

You would be suprised at some of the umps though . Not so much with the premier matchups as much as the bad ones. Some guys will have more then half there games with totals 9.5 and above with 1/3 being 10 or higher ...

Which is why I mentioned short really would like to see outcomes for these guys in the 8 to 9.5 range (even 8.5 or 9 ) and see how it differs from the rest.

Things dont really ever even out . Everything works in extremes . Just my take usually things go the complete opposite in regards to trends ending ....:shake:

Just feel it takes a few minutes to look at umps profile and see the game to game stats especially using the fast facts at Jim Feist ...