The_Hammers SUPERBOWL XLI **********Selection

The_HAMMER

Pretty much a regular
My friends.....

The biggest game of the year is upon us. We could certainly argue until we are blue if the face as to which of these teams should or should not be here, the list of pros and cons for both is lenghty. However, after a thorough analysis I believe it will be the Colts that walk away victorious on Sunday.

The quick & short reasoning:

Chicago Offense - Ability to run the ball well and have an excellent deep threat in Berrian. They have actually looked stellar at times but as most should agree many of those big plays came against defenses of sub-par quality. If they fall behind, they are in serious trouble. Grossman will not win a game for them at this level on his own.
Chicago Defense - Not much breakdown needed here, they actually have the ability to win a game with no help from their offense whatsoever, as we've all witnessed this year. They are easily one of the best, if not the top unit in the whole league. When firing on all cylinders they are extremely hard to beat. However, I called it when it happened: losing Mike Brown early has been a major blow. He is the most under-rated player on their team. In truth, they have not been the same team since and have shown several signs of weakness as a few teams have been successful in exploiting them.

Indianapolis Offense - Exceptionally talented, extremely fast and very very smart. Always a joy to watch. If there is anyone in the league who can find they way to beat a defense it is certainly Peyton Manning. Up until this point in his entire career, there is nothing he hasn't seen from a defensive perspective....teams have tried it all and obviously Peyton hasn't won'em all or even the big game for that matter, but this Sunday that will all change. Peyton has the ability to carry the load and win any game he plays in.
Indianapois Defense - This is the real story of Indy's journey to the bowl. First half of the season was a big question mark but what a substantial turnaround. They have showed signs of last year's dominant unit and have really stepped up when it has counted. Once again they to surprise this Sunday and help secure a Colts victory.

GAMBLING SIDE BAR 1: COLTs have covered the last 3 straight on their journey to the bowl. (KC, BAL and NE) I kid you not, I called and hit each one, and I will hit this sunday. One might compare this bowl to the last IND/BAL game because of the Ravens excellent defensive unit and mediocre offense. The Balimore D helped keep the score low because it was at home. On a neutral ground, I tell you this: we will see a few fireworks.

GAMBLING SIDE BAR 2: Approximately 60% of the public money is on the Bears and my gut says this line will not move. 1/2 a point either way and heavy action will poor in. I know that you all know: vegas doesn't like to lose. Just a thought.

The Bears will certainly make it a game and they will get their breaks no question, but in the end the COLTS will simply out-score them. I believe this is their time. No question.....to me.....this bowl is a no-brainer. I am not promising anything but I will take my chances. I wish everyone all the best and GOOD LUCK. I also lean toward the over.
My Play is Indy -7.


FINAL PREDICTION:

Indianapolis Colts 34 Chicago Bears 23.
 
Hammer-I am def. leaning in your direction. I will decide prob. Sat. night, good luck on Sunday!
 
GL, I concur, last year Pitts covered as a favorite after 4 straight dogs. I see the Colts with a similar outcome as you have predicated but will watch for weather/rain forecast on game day to put in final amount, selection will not change.
 
Nice work .

The most overplayed factor is the IF they fall behind angle. First Indy settled for FGs at home vs KC , they only had 5 FGs in Balt , guess what last week 1st Half just 2 FGs. So why now will they explode versus a tough defense? Second is when has Chi fallen behind ? So why now? The road possibly ? they were 7-1 and didnt exactly fall behind the last explosive offense they played StL. To me this angle is way over played. Its great that no one has faith in Rex. He wont win this game on his own? Probably not but how many QBs have in the Big game? Marino , Elway , how many big games Peyton Manning won on his own ? In fantasy football he is capable of winning on his own but in the NFL...I saw a tired defense , great OL play , some NE penalties , some questionable referee calls and then some nice Manning throws. No one asks one player to win and never does it happen.

Absolutely agree with Mike Brown. My biggest concern as a Bears backer. The secondary of Chi but I dont think StL or TB game showed anything. Rams got alot of garbage points and TB was getting smoked and I have no doubt Chi mentally quit.

I dont what signs of domination you saw. The Cheifs and Ravens stunk on offense it wasnt hard to believe that they wouldnt crack 17 points. I didnt see NE have much problem moving the ball. Sanders means alot but the defense went from bad to medicore.

I also have hit all 3 Indy games . I dont Balt is as good as Chi though. Balt has a good defense and no offense. Not the same in Chi.

Not sure what your looking at but last I saw 47% were on Chi.

Playing devil advocates cause I am on the other side but still wish ya Luck
 
SportsNut,
I appreciate your respectful criticism. You do bring up some good points. I don't really dis-agree with you. However, just a few things: IMPO I don't consider the Bears to be on an entirely different level than the Ravens. The defense was the major comparison but truthfully, I don't think their offense is that much better either. McNair is just as talented as Grossman if not better. They show some signs of life through the season too. I pretty much lump then in the same boat, neither is what I'd call spectacular.

I realize INDY has stuggled to put points up in the early going (first couple games) but they started to really break out of the slump against NE and it was because they were forced to. Against good teams they have to score repeatedly its the way their system/team is built. I just think that that is going to continue on Sunday. Tony Dungy knows a score or two up against the bears won't be enough to win. I expect them to throw early and often. I would actually be suprised if they don't take SEVERAL shots down the field.

You might actually call this next statement crazy: if the weather is a factor and the rain becomes heavy I believe that will favour the COLTs. I know they are a dome team, but as long as Peyton can hang on to the ball, he's gonna have a field day pickin' apart the Chicago secondary; Indy'd boys are just too fast.

I could be completely wrong, but again I'll take my chances. I know Chicago will certainly make it a game. I really just think Indy is going to outscore them, just my opinion. I wish you too all the best. Good luck my friend. Take care.

HAMMER

:cheers:
 
Also....covers/wagerline showing approximately 58% on the Bears.
As long as that line doesn't move.....Chicago will continue to get modest action, just my thought.
 
I still haven't decided, I am either taking Indy-7 or the ML, and leaning on the over. I see the under is being pounded, I see no rush to pull the trigger yet. I feel better about -6.5 then 7. Good luck to all! It should be a great game.
 
I like it bud... I find it easier to think Indys' defense steps up than to think Chicagos' offense does.

gl to us both bud
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Well....it didn't go exactly as planned but we'll take the win. After the kick-return, Chicago kinda fell apart, they weren't in the game at all after that. I believe the better team won. Congrats to all the INDY backers. Peace out.


:cheers:
 
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