The total in Anaheim

[Joe Public]

I'm going to do something a bit different in these next two games.

It sort of comes from the same place as taking the dog to split the first two games theory.

If you look at the way these two teams have played, they tend to trade totals, over then under then back again.

Given that, the way the trends stack up when these two teams get together in Orange County, and the way both goalies are playing, I'm going to say that you get an under in one of the two games in Anaheim.

So if I don't get it tonight, I'll play it again in two days. I just want the split.

Go Defense.

Ducks/Wings under 4.5 (+120)

Good luck tonight everybody.

 

[Santacapper]

From what Ive read, boxscores this looks like some nice value on the price for a game that could end up 1-0.

GL Joe

 

[JumpOnBoard]

Can't fault ya Joe..

Do it up.

 

[Joe Public]

Thanks, guys.

I really feel we get one over and one under in this two game set.

 

[Joe Public]

Oh, and here are some of those trends I mentioned, courtesy of FrozenTundra at Covers.

<li class="morehot">Under is 13-3-4 in the last 20 meetings in Anaheim. <li class="morehot">Under is 21-5-4 in the last 30 meetings. <li class="more">Home team is 23-9-2 in the last 34 meetings. <li class="more">Red Wings are 29-14-3 in the last 46 meetings. <li class="morecool">Red Wings are 1-7-1 in the last 9 meetings in Anaheim.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Joe, I was all ready to jump on this in the morning. But the strange juice threw me off. Something seems weird grabbing this solid play at +20 or +15.

I can't see it going over though. 2-0 Anaheim.

 

[Joe Public]

It's that 4.5. That's what's throwing you off, B., it did for me, too.

You've got two teams coming off a big number performance and the total's 4.5 not 5, that's where I think it comes from.

If this total were a flat 5 the juice would be reversed.

Also, the rationale above is sort of what I used to talk myself around that feeling. Because, as I said, I don't think it's necessarily 'this' game where the under hits, but I do think it happens in one of the two. Hopefully it happens here and I can just watch Game Four for fun.

Also, I think if you could get plus-money on under 4.5 and on over 5 in both these games I think it might be worth a shot. It does leave you open to that magic number, but I think if and when these teams go over they're going to hit a six or a seven.

But that could just be me.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I posted my opinion to Yanks before game 1 that I felt Duck wins were more likely to be Over, and Wing wins more likely to be Under. I'm looking like a genius at this point, lol, so my observation would be banking on at leats 1 under in the nxt 2 games is likely to be the equivalent of banking on 1 Wing win. As well as hasek is playing, it seems to me Anaheim winning means they've solved him = goals, and I always think DET are going to get theirs.

Pretty long winded for someone who never plays NHL totals, but there you go. BOL Joe.

 

[Joe Public]

Thanks, Bet. And really, you could just as easily read my post as someone who's saying that he thinks there will be one over in the next two games--because I do think that.

I think because of the depth problem on Detroit's blueline no one should be surprised if the Ducks can put up three or four in a game and, yep, it's tough to see Detroit going more than a game or two without getting two or three themselves.

So we actually agree--although, I think this series gets won in the very game you don't see happening as easily. I think when Anaheim wins a game 2-0 the series turns right there to their favor. Because, as you say, if Anaheim puts up big numbers, they'll win the series, the question will be can they win a low scoring game.

I think they can, I think that, too, happens in one of these next two games, with an outside chance it happens in Game Five. But I think it happens.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

You could accept say, a 3-2 game. Thats just an honest loss. But allowing 5 goals is just a total disgrace!

GL tomorrow.

 

[catfood]

Tough loss Joe, for myself too...damn redwings

 

[Joe Public]

I'm bumping this because I said I thought there'd be an under in one of these two games and, well, what kind of Joe would I be if I gave up now?

Ducks/Wings under 4.5 +110ish.

Good luck tonight all. Go defense.

 

[Santacapper]

this kind

 

[Santacapper]

of course Im on it too, GL Joe

 

[Joe Public]

Whoa. Good point.

Although I do think that's the voice of Fat Tony from The Simpsons.

And it's tough to hate Fat Tony. But it's a good point. Nobody wants to see Joe's chest hair, point taken.

 

[Joe Public]

of course Im on it too, GL Joe

Tonight, my friend, we ride. Good luck.

=)

 

[Santacapper]

of course Im on it too, GL Joe

Tonight, my friend, we ride. Good luck.

=)

Joe Santa

'an_horse' 'an_horse'

 

[Joe Public]

Well, I said I was scared that the first game was the one where the under should have been there and, sure enough, that's what it was.

Bad calls on my part, I suppose.

Tough love, Santa.