The Ten Commandments for Betting the Bowls

cisco

cisco

Master of the San Diego home-under chase
by Andrew Iskoe




I. Thou shalt look to pick the straight up winner of the game.


II. Thou shalt honor the Underdog in December, but favor the Favorite in the New Year.


III. Thou shalt strongly consider Underdogs seeking redemption.


IV. Thou shalt respect the running game.


V. Thou shalt avoid the disinterested or disappointed favorite.


VI. Thou shalt recognize negative momentum.


VII. Thou shalt honor the history of the opposing coaches


VIII. Thou shalt consider Conference strength


IX. Thou shalt review games against common opponents


X. Thou shalt consider experience and other intangible factors
 
4 is huge...makes me like Illinois even more, and makes me rethink OU/WVU.

I can't remmebr exactly what the stat is but a team that runs for 200 yards a game and is a dog wins SU about 80% of the time.
 
I like it brewer, I really do..it's just I need to get last year's rose bowl out of my head, and I need to get out of my head that USC is GREAT this year. It's all that ESPN talk ingrained from the last 3 years.
 
brewer said:
sc struggles vs mobile qbs, too. see dixon/oregon game.
Click to expand...
I keep seing this..and yes....they play as dominat on defsne...but lets look at numbers...and yes I watched most of the game as well..



<TABLE class=yspwhitebg cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=yspsctbg><TD class=ysptblhdr colSpan=3 height=18>Team Statistics</TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD width="64%" height=18> </TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="18%">Trojans</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="18%">Ducks </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left> First Downs</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>22 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left> Passing</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>9 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left> Rushing</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>11 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left> Penalty</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>2 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left> Third Down Efficiency</TD><TD>8-18</TD><TD>9-16 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left> Fourth Down Efficiency</TD><TD>2-3</TD><TD>0-1 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left> TOTAL NET YARDS</TD><TD>378</TD><TD>339 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left> Total Plays</TD><TD>75</TD><TD>72 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left> Average Gain Per Play</TD><TD>5.0</TD><TD>4.7 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left> NET YARDS RUSHING</TD><TD>101</TD><TD>182 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left> Rushes</TD><TD>33</TD><TD>47 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left> Average Per Rush</TD><TD>3.1</TD><TD>3.9 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left> NET YARDS PASSING</TD><TD>277</TD><TD>157 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left> Completions-Attempts</TD><TD>26-42</TD><TD>16-25 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left> Yards Per Pass Play</TD><TD>6.6</TD><TD>6.3 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left> Times Sacked</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left> Yards Lost to Sacks</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>3 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left> Had Intercepted</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left> PUNTS</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left> Average Punt</TD><TD>36.4</TD><TD>36.4 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left> PENALTIES</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>1 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left> Penalty Yards</TD><TD>80</TD><TD>5 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left> FUMBLES</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left> Fumbles Lost</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=7></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=yspwhitebg cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=yspsctbg><TD class=ysptblhdr width="28%" height=18> Passing</TD><TD width="8%"> </TD><TD width="8%"> </TD><TD width="8%"> </TD><TD width="8%"> </TD><TD width="8%"> </TD><TD width="8%"> </TD><TD width="8%"> </TD><TD width="8%"> </TD><TD width="8%"> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18> USC</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Comp</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Att</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Yds</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Pct</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Y/A</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Sack</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>YdsL</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>TD</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Int </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left> M. Sanchez</TD><TD>26</TD><TD>41</TD><TD>277</TD><TD>63.4</TD><TD>6.8</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>2 </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18> Oregon</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Comp</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Att</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Yds</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Pct</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Y/A</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Sack</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>YdsL</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>TD</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Int </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left> D. Dixon</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>157</TD><TD>64.0</TD><TD>6.3</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=7></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=yspwhitebg cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=yspsctbg><TD class=ysptblhdr width="40%" height=18> Rushing</TD><TD width="10%"> </TD><TD width="10%"> </TD><TD width="10%"> </TD><TD width="10%"> </TD><TD width="10%"> </TD><TD width="10%"> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18> USC</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Rush</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Yds</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Avg</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Lng</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>TD</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>FumL </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left> C. Washington</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>42</TD><TD>3.8</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left> J. McKnight</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>34</TD><TD>3.4</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left> S. Havili</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>2.5</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left> S. Johnson</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>3.0</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left> M. Sanchez</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>1.2</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl align=left height=18> Oregon</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Rush</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Yds</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Avg</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Lng</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>TD</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>FumL </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left> J. Stewart</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>103</TD><TD>4.1</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left> D. Dixon</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>76</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left> G. Schwartz</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>3.0</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD align=left> A. Crenshaw</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>2.0</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD align=left> A. Pflugrad</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>2.0</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
I dunno...I think the big 10 gonna surprise this year...it's a wacky enough year.
 
bar do u have a link to that game at all? so i can rewatch it and we can compare notes.
 
HUNTDOG said:
I dunno...I think the big 10 gonna surprise this year...it's a wacky enough year.
Click to expand...
LOL-that would be a perfect ending to this season..for a shitty conference to dominate bowls.

Big Ten usually does well against SEC...we'll see.
 
Brewer...no I don't.

As for he body of work in that game...if JD Booty had played I think it would have went totally to the wire.

Oregon was a machine this year and SC held them under 350..pretty impressive...

Stewart and Dix did enough to win though..no doubt.
 
this Michigan florida keeps reminding me of Auburn vs. Wisky in Alvarez' last game...I guess im dreaming right.
 
found this. interesting read ...

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD style="PADDING-RIGHT: 6px; PADDING-LEFT: 6px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 6px; PADDING-TOP: 6px" vAlign=top>Carroll is to blame for ten and 2 U.</TD><TD class="" style="PADDING-RIGHT: 6px; PADDING-LEFT: 6px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 6px; PADDING-TOP: 6px" vAlign=bottom noWrap align=right 1??></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<HR color=#cccccc noShade>It is not really all that complicated. USC lost two games because of poor coaching. Carroll has his choice of the best coaches available and instead chose to grow his own from grad assistants, hire friends, relatives and even his son's best friend to coach the most talented team in the country.

That's what happened.

USC has only one grown up coach on each side of the ball. Holt who should stick with linebackers on defense and Ruel who is a decent offensive line coach.

USC has a strength and conditioning coach that seems to specialize in shoulder injuries and hamstrings. No other team in NCAA has more of these injuries than USC, and it all can't be from casualty tuesdays.

That's it. The rest are a bunch of UNQUALIFIED, energetic, YES MEN to pete's colossal ego. Don't believe me? Just watch how little coaching goes on on the sideline during a game during trojan rewind or better yet, youtube Yogi Roth. This is who is coaching our quarterbacks while Sark is arguing with Pete and staring into the sun trying to get plays in.

Ever wonder why Sark is on the sideline staring into the sun instead of up in the box where he can see the field? It's because that's right where Pete wants him. His headset is a choke collar and when it's third and long, Pete glares over and tells him to run the 2 percent successful draw play. Pete is in total control. He micromanages everything. Pete demands that USC throw sideways and chauncey up the gut for usually very little gain. Pete's the guy who demanded that Chow run the ball at the end of the Cal game playing for a field goal in 2003 and Pete's the guy that finally let Kiffin call the second half of the rose bowl last year. Pete's ego could not accept chow getting credit so he ran him out of town. Since then USC hasn't won jack sh%t.

USC may be the most talented team in the country, but it doesn't really matter if as the STANFORD players were quoted in the media thanking their coaches for having them in the the right position to make plays. The most telling quote was when two stanford players stated that USC runs the same plays out of the same formations and the same personnel packages. Even a vastly inferior talented team can stop a play if they know what's coming.

As far as USC"s two losses go. Both were ALL ON THE COACHES. Stanford knew what USC would do on offense ,and 4th and 20 soft zone, no pressure on a quarterback playing his first game on the the road sealed the deal. You can blame booty if you want. But Carroll was shown the x ray of his fracture at half time and listed to the ridiculously unqualified Yogi Roth that Booty just needed to put some more tape on it.

Now let's look at oregon. Oregon runs the option out of the shotgun and various spread formations. But all it is is the option. First rule to shut down the option is to HIT the quarterback on every play. Anyone see the army navy game yesterday? Well Carroll never had anyone even say boo to Dixon. Instead USC played scared and on their heels. Dixon weighs all of 160 lbs soaking wet. Just freaking hit him. But no. Pete chose to bend his defense and LOSE THE GAME. Oregon was simply a one man team.

Special teams. No coach , no attention, No nothing in 7 years. Nuff said. Hard to have a real coach when Pete hires his kid and his kid's best friend to take up precious real-estate in the coaching box.

Pete built this program up from nothing. So I guess it's his toy to break. And breaking it is exactly what he has done the last two years. There are posts that USC can beat anyone. Well USC has proven it can also lose to just about anyone with this coaching staff.

Two conference losses and a Rose Bowl berth is a gift. It is not earned. USC should be happy to be playing anyone on new year's day.

Pete will again dominate recruiting. He could talk a dog off of a meat truck. As a defensive coordinator he is competent, although I prefer the more aggressive schemes he PROMISED the day he took the job. Pete needs to hire some competent grown up coaches, and leave the offense ALONE to those that know offense. I've given up on special teams until Pete moves on. At this point no nfl team wants him with his demands, so he isn't going anywhere.

Only question for the offseason. Does Pete hate to lose more than he hates to admit he was wrong? We will see with what staff he puts together this spring.

fight on. sc.
 
getting rid of chow was the dumbest thing he's ever done at sc. but its just an example of his arrogance. he couldn't handle the credit Chow was getting for sc's insane offense, so he ran him off.

the main reason they didn't get desean jackson is cuz they took him for granted. giving Patrick Turner Jacksons jersey # was just one example of how sc's arrogance when it came to jackson's recruiting cost them.

If they don't screw that recruitment up and hold onto Chow, they would have beat Texas in 06 and would have won it all last season as well. they'd be claiming the 4-pete, even tho it'd be 3 in 4 years.

is there anything more arrogant than claiming a national title when you didn't play in the game that decides the national champion?
 
sportjunky said:
getting rid of chow was the dumbest thing he's ever done at sc. but its just an example of his arrogance. he couldn't handle the credit Chow was getting for sc's insane offense, so he ran him off.

the main reason they didn't get desean jackson is cuz they took him for granted. giving Patrick Turner Jacksons jersey # was just one example of how sc's arrogance when it came to jackson's recruiting cost them.

If they don't screw that recruitment up and hold onto Chow, they would have beat Texas in 06 and would have won it all last season as well. they'd be claiming the 4-pete, even tho it'd be 3 in 4 years.

is there anything more arrogant than claiming a national title when you didn't play in the game that decides the national champion?
Click to expand...

I didn't know Desean was a great tackler or could play defense.

Also Texas screwed up Adrian Peterson's recruitment as well. We wouldn't even be talking about USC right now if Peterson would've came to Texas and been in the backfield with VY in 05 and 06.

But I see your point about the arrogance.
 
SHSUHorn said:
I didn't know Desean was a great tackler or could play defense.

Also Texas screwed up Adrian Peterson's recruitment as well. We wouldn't even be talking about USC right now if Peterson would've came to Texas and been in the backfield with VY in 05 and 06.

But I see your point about the arrogance.
Click to expand...

yah, King Vince ass-fucked sc's defense. That game was an all-timer for me, so i didn't mean to hate on Texas' well deserved Title.

didn't realize that about Peterson.....did they miss the boat early when they were wrapping up all their commits? or did they do something to piss him off?
 
They had Ced Benson, who was a senior to be and would have gotten most of the carries. Peterson could come right in and play at ou. That's part of it.

The other reason has to do with a Lexus. Which is what happens to most kids who trade Austin for Norman, a Texas education for a Mobilehoma education, Texas chicks for chicks with dicks, etc.
 
He grew up a huge Ricky Williams & Texas fan.

Also I think I fight broke out in the locker room at halftime during the TX/OU game which he was a visitor for Texas for the game. Kinda turned him off I think plus OU kicked their ass.

The only problem is when he announced for OU he said he wanted to win the MNC title which is why he choose them.

He needs to stick to football and not trying to be Nostradamus. The kid would've probably had two rings if he went to Texas.
 
Bottom line he felt OU was a winner and UT wasn't. This was in the midst of UT getting their ass kicked by OU every year. Other factors including early PT, Lexuses, and dollar bills. He also did see a locker room fight at TX-OU game. The whole thing was unfortunate cuz he grew up a UT fan and idolized Ricky Williams. His loss though, thats what happens when you turn your back on the state school. He could have been a legend in the biggest football state there is. He said himself while at OU that he hated it whenever OU said "Texas sucks" in their faggy chant cuz that was his home state. Tommie Harris admitted that he regretted going to OU over UT as well. He chose OU for similar reasons.
 
SHSUHorn said:
Also Texas screwed up Adrian Peterson's recruitment as well. We wouldn't even be talking about USC right now if Peterson would've came to Texas and been in the backfield with VY in 05 and 06.
Click to expand...

Mack Brown personally screwed up the Peterson situation by mailing in (another) OU game. Peterson was on the sideline that day for the 65-13 disemboweling, the second of four times that OU raped us under Brown's watch.

Peterson saw that game from the sideline and said "No, thanks." Having sat in section 14 of the Cotton Bowl for that debacle, I couldn't blame him.
 
11. Above all, unless the words "playoff" or "January" are associated with a bowl game, you're best served just watching for entertainment. It's borderline lunacy to do otherwise.

I watched Baylor throw in the towel during November. Literally, they gave up on plays during the TCU game - players just stopped running. There was no evidence of any allegiance or devotion to Grobe as the season wound down. There was never a better example of a team that had quit, especially given the off-the-field stuff. And then you see them do what they did last night alongside Boise basically sleepwalking for 60 minutes.

Again, borderline lunacy.
 
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