The Sports Cruncher's 2015 CFB Week 11 Lines & Market Plays

T

TheSportsCruncher

Pretty much a regular
Well, the line and juice have down far enough on the Toledo @ Central Mich. game that I'm going to get involved.

Adding for 0.5 unit (= 0.65% of bankroll this week): Toledo -3.5 (-105)

Toledo has big enough advantages in the running match ups to overcome their disadvantages in the passing match ups.

I also recommended and played a unit on Kent +7 (-120) at Ohio tonight. +6 is still good as I have this game 'capped very near a pick. Similar to the above game, the home team, Ohio, has an advantage in the passing match ups, but a disadvantage in the rushing match ups. Ohio did have their best running game of the season against Bowling Green last week, and they very well might have some of that post-bye new found ability back on display in this game, but Kent has an above average run defense. The only team that has averaged more than 4 ypc in a game this year against Kent is Toledo. Ohio has had a slew of defensive injuries that have turned a below average run defense into a bottom 5 run defense. Kent, to be fair, does not have a good running game, and has really struggled as of late, so it remains to be seen how well they'll be able to exploit Ohio's defensive weakness. In a lower than average scoring game, the points become more valuable.
 
I had a few units on the BGSU @ WMU Over 75.5 but I'm going to juice it out on Under 75 because the weather forecast is getting worse. Hope I don't get baby Polish middled on 75. :(
 
Yeah, eeked out a winner on Toledo but lost on Kent, who were awful. And to think they should have beaten Buffalo last week! lol. I did list the reasons why Kent might not cover tonight, and they proved to be right on, lol. I do shape my lines with in-season trends for each team's run/pass offense/defense units, but I've been toying with the idea of going beyond that with weighting recent performances more than earlier ones in the season. Clearly Ohio had some big positives in the blow out loss to BGSU, while Kent's offense should probably have been a steer clear, especially on the road. As bad as Ohio's run defense has been Kent just couldn't exploit it. There's another angle I'm looking into tracking for match ups as well...it's a lifelong process really, trying to get the lines as sharp as possible.
 
My play recommendation for tonight was 2 units on the NIU @ BUFF Under 56. By my rankings both teams have better defenses than offenses. BUFF's run offense is particularly weak, failing to have an above average game versus an opponent's usual ypc averages allowed even once this season. And it's even worse than that, they've actually gained fewer ypc than every team they've played this year usually allows. It's not that their run game is terrible every game -- it's not, it's just consistently below average. The BUFF passing game finally had it's first above average game a couple of weeks ago against Miami of Ohio (who has a surprisingly average pass defense this year -- surprisingly because you probably expected it to be bad, lol). They followed that up with one of their worst games of the season against Kent. NIU's pass defense is better than the average range of pass defenses Buffalo has faced, which is why I only project BUFF to average 5.8 ypp tonight. The NIU pass defense had some severe ups and downs through the first 6 weeks of the season, but has settled into a groove their last three games, allowing only 4.6 ypp to teams with a combined pass offense ranking not much worse than BUFF's.

NIU lost QB Drew Hare for the season last week, though freshman backup Ryan Graham filled in well in leading the team to a come from behind victory at Toledo. Still, that's a pretty small sample size of success, and the kid is a freshman. On top of that, NIU's best WR by far, Tommylee Lewis, has been downgraded to doubtful for tonight as well. Yeah, I'm still a little stung that NIU suffered those two injuries and still came back to win/cover at Toledo last week, lol. NIU is typically a run-oriented team, though statistically they are a little better passing the ball than running it. BUFF is below average defending both the pass and rush, but they're not too far behind NIU's offensive rankings, so NIU shouldn't be marching up and down the field on them, and the home field will help BUFF.

NIU does run an uptempo offense most of the time, which is somewhat counteracted by BUFF's slightly slow pace. This game isn't going to be a shoot out, and really shouldn't have many quick scoring drives. With a line in the 50s it can withstand a defensive or special teams score or two as well. If NIU does indeed have the 4th quarter lead, they'll also slow their pace while continuing to run the ball. Buffalo's offense should struggle throughout. Buffalo last week scored on an amazing one handed grab and a final drive where they converted multiple fourth downs (one because of a pass interference penalty) -- yeah, I'm still stung by losing the Kent 2nd half play because of that improbable last drive, lol (though the Under was still an easy winner in spite of it). I kid -- nothing stings after the great week I ended up having. Don't plan on Buffalo getting the backdoor score that pushes this one Over tonight.

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Good write up, Cruncher.

I don't bet the MAC, but I enjoy watching them and sometimes make small bets with friends over to watch the game. Your info helps me win a lunch here and there, sometimes a full dinner.

Thanks for posting.
 
Welp, too many long scores in the NIU-BUFF game to keep it Under. BUFF's offense over-performed expectations, while their defense under-performed. Not the required recipe for the Under.

GT -3.5 vs VT (I played a half unit at -110 and another half at +105) in the "Bowl of Bad Tech Support"

Beamer announced his retirement a week ago. I don't it's going to give VT any kind of edge in this contest. It's a home team for GT and both teams come to play. VT has one win against an above average team this year; NC St., and that was at home for the Hokies. Even more disappointing has been the GT, with just 2 wins versus VT's 3. There aren't many easy wins in the ACC, depending on your schedule, and GT has had a brutal one the past two months, where every team they've faced except for one (Virginia), has spent time in the top 25 this season. GT held their own in most of these games, losing by more than 8 points only once, to Duke in week #4. And then, of course, they upset Florida State. And then, of course, they crapped the bed last week losing to Virginia. VT isn't chopped liver, but they're an easier opponent than GT has faced on average. VT's defense hasn't played up to its billing this year, but their run defense has played better over their last four. Overall, I project enough small edges for GT to add up to about a 10 point win for them.

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And tonight could have been worse, lol. Because BGSU missed an extra point I had to sweat one more touchdown in that game hitting the baby Polish middle against me, as I originally had a couple units on the Over 75.5, but then got off of that on the Under 75 when the weather forecast worsened. Reallllly sweated that, lol.
 
Agree that Georgia Tech's schedule has been brutal this year. I just think the entire season has been a total disappointment to these players and that VT will have the motivational edge tonight. The underdog is also 8-2ATS in the last 10 meetings. Health tonight. Looking forward to your thoughts this weekend.
 
Week 10 results. I accidentally saved my cheat sheet week 11 over week 10 without renaming it so I lost the closing lines saved there. Most of them I had down or still remembered, but there's a few ball park guesses near the bottom. My record is not forum official anymore as I only posted my plays with my cheat sheet on Thursday. If posted plays are not made with currently available lines then a record does not count. If mods would rather not have me post my results I understand and would be fine with that.

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The top recommended plays when the lines came out were Old Dominion, UCLA, TULN @ ARMY UNDER, TEM @ USF UNDER, MIA @ UNC OVER, ARK @ M-OH UNDER, BGSU @ WMU OVER (bought off it the other way when weather forecast worsened), TULSA @ CIN OVER, AND NIU @ BUFF UNDER (only gained 1 to 1.5 points in value so didn't buy any back for small middle try, unfortunately). All lines played are listed on the sheet above. Any other listed play above is for either a half or 1 unit. I always recommend buying an extra unit or two on the top plays to set up some buy back middles, as the more I like a line the more likely it is the line is going to move how I think it will. Middles were a good part of last week's success, hitting four of them.
 
Thx, KSimp -- the line on USM would be even higher without some small changes I made this week, too. A 14-17 point win would not be at all surprising. I was able to grab the -7 when it was briefly available and buy it down to -6.5.

Out of 27 side plays recommended this week (volume, baby, lol) I have only two of them where the line has moved against me a full point. One of them is Georgia Tech. I never like that (even though last week I did very well on "Me versus the Market" plays, lol). If Paul Johnson is indeed going to give a lot of playing time to youngsters/not focus on winning out the rest of the season (information I only read this morning), then yeah, it's not a good spot to back them. If they don't cover, that's gambling, baby -- small weekday holes are what big Saturdays are meant to take care of, lol. With my volume, no big deal!
 
GL to you as well, gentleman handicappers!

I liked USC at -14.5 when it opened for a medium-small play, but would pass on the current -17. No recommended play on the total either.

Reasons to like USC: Balanced offenses are hard to defend, especially when your defense is below average versus both the run and pass, like Colorado. USC's rush defense should really limit a poor Colorado run offense. Colorado capable of losing big at home, as demonstrated by the 32 point loss to Stanford last week.

Reasons to like Colorado: Colorado has a passing game with just enough competence to test a USC pass defense that has been fairly average over the past month. USC allowed over 300 yards passing for the first time last week versus Arizona. Colorado's pass offense ranks 82nd compared to Arizona's 62nd. USC maybe a little complacent after three straight wins in a look ahead spot with Oregon and UCLA coming up. COLO coming off of a bad home loss to Stanford last week will have the motivational edge at home.

This could be a sandwich game for USC, but knowing you're the only game of the night nation-wide means both teams will probably start the game fired up.

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tuck321 said:
Opinion on New Mexico?
Click to expand...

I like New Mexico to cover, and recommended a small play on them. Boise really hasn't been playing that great for a while now, though they did finally get their running game back on track against a weak UNLV run defense. Their passing game had it's biggest game in a month, too. Boise has shown the ability to boat race weak defenses, so there's a good chance Boise puts up a lot of first half points before slowing down in the second half. New Mexico somehow had a really good game defensively pulling the huge upset against Utah State last week. Utah State has been pretty bi-polar home and away, so I wouldn't expect New Mexico's defense to repeat that kind of success on the road here. New Mexico's run offense has tailed off as the season has gone along, but they've mixed in some success with the passing game to help out. I made a small play on the Under as well. But yeah, I don't really like either play very much -- the smallest of small recommendations given Boise's usual mode of playing fast against bad teams trying to put them in a hole.
 
Just one buy back before bedtime. The MIA @ UNC total has gone up enough that I think, if anything, it may shimmy down a bit tomorrow with buy backs. I recommended 3 units on the Over 58.5 when it opened at BookMaker. I'm buying back 1.5 units on the Under 67.5 (-105 5D). Biggest middle window of the day tomorrow, would be nice to hit to get back what I've been bleeding away each day leading up to Saturday, lol.

I'm going to try and squeeze at least another point out of some lines before the other buy backs tomorrow. I think ODU may go above 7 (though I suspect it will probably stay where it is), and the 3 unit Unders I have may still go a bit lower, judging by my lines.
 
Adding for 0.6% play: ARST @ ULM Over 56.5 (-105 5D)
Adding for 0.6% play: GAST @ TXST Under 66 (-105 5D)
Adding for 0.6% play: MSST +8 vs ALA (-105 5D)
Adding for 0.6% play: OKST -13 @ ISU
Adding for 0.6% play: MINN @ IOWA UNDER 45.5 (-105 5D)
Adding for 0.6% play: MEM +7 @ HOU (-115)
Adding for 0.6% play: AUB PICK VS UGA
 
Morning buy backs: UTEP +7.5 (-105 5D) 1% - AKR @ M-OH OVER 42.5 (-105 5D) 1.7% - TULN @ ARMY OVER 42.5 (-105 5D) 1.7% - TULSA @ CIN UNDER 77 (-107 5D) 0.8%
 
Recommended a 0.6% play on the ORST @ CAL Over 57. The line has gone up far enough, and totals are just random garbage this year anyway, so might as well try to middle the whole thing now with the Under 63.5.
 
I'm assuming Falk isn't coming back for WSU, he looks concussed.

Adding for .6% WSU @ UCLA Under 31 2nd half

I'd be all over UCLA -8 too if I didn't already have a decent amount riding on that # for them.
 
Aww, what the heck, let's gamble.

Adding for .6% UCLA -8 2nd half

I figure if the 2nd half Under loses UCLA will be covering the half. I don't expect much out of WSU if Falk is indeed out.
 
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