The Sports Cruncher's 2015 CFB Week 09 Lines & Market Plays

T

TheSportsCruncher

Pretty much a regular
Gained value on some, lost on some. I knew I shouldn't have fired on BC right out of the gate with as bad as their offense has been, lol. Still VT as a team has to be pretty discouraged heading into this game.

Week #9 Recommended Investments

3 Units

UNC -2.5 @ PITT
LOU -9.5 @ WAKE (-115)

2 Units

GASO -19 vs TXST
USF +10 @ NAVY
MASS +4 @ BALL (-115)
GAST +18.5 @ ARST (-105)
SDSU -3 @ CSU (-125)
CIN -20.5 vs UCF
UNT +12.5 vs UTSA

1 Unit

EMU +20.5 vs WMU
LT -10 @ RICE
NEB -10 @ PUR
CLEM -9.5 @ NCST
MISS -6 @ AUB
GT -2.5 @ UVA (-115)
HOU -14 vs VAN (-115)
SYR +20.5 @ FSU (-105)
USM -19 vs UTEP (-115)
BC +1.5 vs VT
APP -24 vs TROY
UCLA -18.5 vs COLO
UTAH -23.5 vs ORST

.6 Unit

STAN -12.5 @ WSU (-115)
OKLA -39 @ KU
ISU +8.5 vs TEX
ULL -9.5 vs ULM (-115)
 
Adding for 1 Unit: FAU +3.5 vs FIU

FAU not as bad as their final score last week. UTEP played perfect keep away against them like they did so well frequently last year -- having QB Leftwich back made all the difference for UTEP). FAU still had good ypc and ypp averages in the games. The -2 turnover margin for FAU was all it took to keep them behind and losing in a slow paced game.

FIU was not as good as their 29 point win over ODU. ODU outgained FIU and couldn't cover the +14.5 for chrissakes. Once again the -2 turnover margin was big. FIU had one of their better days passing the ball, but they couldn't run it worth a damn while allowing multiple big runs and a very high ypc to ODU.

I think FIU's fading run game will spell their demise, with FAU getting the outright win by 3 or 4 at home.
 
Adding for .6 Unit: TENN -7 @ KEN (-105)

Tennessee deservedly almost knocked of Alabama last week -- I'm hoping they don't suffer from a hang over loss. They can't afford to lose any more games within range of winning -- they should get the job done versus Kentucky.

Tennessee won the rushing matchups with Alabama, the first team to beat the Crimson Tide at that all year. They were also only the second team to outperform their usual yards per pass averages versus Alabama. The case can definitely be made for Alabama not being as consistently excellent as we're used to them being, but Tennessee has to be the best 2-4 team in the country by a huge margin, lol. They have no real weaknesses offensively or defensively. The same cannot be said for Kentucky, whose pass defense has been really bad their last few games, while their run defense is just a hair below average. Offensively they can make things happen, but even there they're not as good as Tennessee.
 
Adding for 0.5 Unit: CHAR +20.5 vs MRSH

Let's admit Charlotte's weakness first -- they have a bottom five pass offense. It ain't good folks. That being said, Marshall is a team you want to run against, so expect CHAR to do that as much as situationally possible -- 60%+ percent of all plays. Marshall's top RB D. Johnson is now out indefinitely, but Marshall has had some good play from their other RB's so his loss won't be too great. That being said, Marshall shouldn't have too big of an advantage in the run matchups. Fortunately for Charlotte, Marshall's pass offense isn't too far behind Charlotte's in suckitude. Charlotte's been playing good enough defense (barring the occasional collapse on the road -- they've been pretty darn good at home, actually) to keep Marshall from running away with this game. I mean, if Marshall couldn't pull away from North Texas at home last week, winning by 17, I see no reason for them to do better against a better defense while being on the road. Marshall should win by 14 or so. If the line for whatever reason goes above 21 I'll buy another half unit.
 
Thx, ma dudes.

Adding for .6 unit: Wyoming +28 @ Utah St.

I don't care if Wyoming's QB and top WR are out for this game, this is still too many points. This team is playing hard and have covered their last four games.

Just refreshing for totals now...
 
Ya Wyoming plays hard seemingly every snap I have watched them this season. Testament to that coach.
 
BOL this week crunch. good write up on charlotte making me question my marshall money. pretty much all the stats you pointed to for charlotte are why I played USM last week but marshall has not looked the same on offense this year as you pointed out
 
BOL crunch, if u like emu I'm assuming the over might be good unless its stupid high?
 
Yes, I have a lean+ on the Over, but figure after EMU's recent games that there won't be much line value on the opening # Over, plus there is some wetness and wind in the forecast. Won't be playing it unless for some clueless bookmaking reason it opens below 60.
 
TheSportsCruncher said:
Yes, I have a lean+ on the Over, but figure after EMU's recent games that there won't be much line value on the opening # Over, plus there is some wetness and wind in the forecast. Won't be playing it unless for some clueless bookmaking reason it opens below 60.
Click to expand...


thx for the heads up
 
Week #9 Recommended Totals

2 Unit plays are setting up to middle some of the investment. 1.5 unit plays and less are to let ride. Clearly I'm valuing Georgia State's run defense a lot more highly than most (and the market) seem to realize. I rank them 41st. Arkansas State's offense is still not good, even with Freddie Knighten, who is a terrible passer. ***Insta-Update -- the market has been pretty quick to beat this line down, actually. The posted opener was 66, it was 64.5 when I first saw it.

Yes, there's the chance that Oklahoma puts up 60+ on Kansas, but if they do I'm pretty sure they'll cover the 1 unit on the -39 I have on them now. Kansas will be lucky to score anything in this game.

Marshall and Charlotte have two of the worst passing games in football right now.

2 Units

OKLA @ KU UNDER 66
GAST @ ARST UNDER 64.5
MRSH @ CHAR UNDER 52
TENN @ UK OVER 53

1.5 Unit:

MICH @ MINN UNDER 40 (39 a dead number and not sure if this will drop to 38. Just not sure there'll be enough downward movement to bother trying to middle. Still, wouldn't be surprised to see this get as low as 37, at which point it would def. have been worth trying to set up some buy back.)

1 Unit

VT @ BC UNDER 38
USC @ CAL OVER 65.5
CMU @ AKR UNDER 48
RUTG @ WIS OVER 47.5
UNC @ PITT OVER 52

.6 Unit

SYR @ FSU OVER 51
SDSU @ CSU OVER 49.5
GT @ UVA UNDER 57

.5 Unit

ORST @ UTAH UNDER 56.5
SCAR @ TA&M OVER 53.5
TEX @ ISU UNDER 56
WVU @ TCU OVER 74
BSU @ UNLV UNDER 54.5
 
On your MN/Mich thoughts, what is your projected output for MN? Even at 37, this looks like an under. Are you expecting ST or defensive scores?
 
Adding for 1 Unit: South Carolina +17 @ Texas A&M

I'm guessing it was a service play that bumped this number up hard today. The market had pushed it down on opening (and rightly so, in my opinion, obviously, lol). Definitely worth a play at +17 now. Texas A&M, as I predicted, showed who they were last week. They were even worse, frankly, and a lingering injury to QB Allen's hand might have something to do with it, because he was terrible. The run games should be pretty evenly matched in this game, and TA&M's advantage in the passing game (which may or may not materialize if they're not much improved from last week's performance) + home field isn't enough to warrant being a 17 point favorite.
 
WYO QB Coffman out, back up doesn't pass nearly as well, more of a runner. Coffman really has some nice numbers this year, a big reason why WYO has been covering the past month. Utah State a slow paced run heavy team. The Aggies rate to have a second half lead where the scoring should really grind to a halt, like the WYO @ Boise game last week.

Adding for .6 Unit: VAN @ HOU Under 49

Houston has played one other defense on the level of Vanderbilt -- Louisville in week #2. Houston had it's worst offensive game of the season, which still ended up being okay by any other team's standards, and got the upset road win. Houston has had such an easy schedule in their past five games that I'm a little worried my numbers, in spite of having compensation by opponent built in, is over estimating the big win I project for Houston this week. The line has certainly come down, one of the few moves against me, and I highly doubt it's just because Houston's top RB was concussed last game and is "?". Houston has a couple of other good RB's who have been getting touches with near the same production as Farrow. Houston's defense is actually very average when compensated for the opponents they've played. VAN should have some success on the ground -- but that success means time off the clock that doesn't necessarily translate into a lot of scoring. VAN still won't be able to pass the ball very well. There's a strong chance Houston scores the least amount of points they've done this season, which isn't a bold prediction when their season low was the 34 they scored at Louisville, lol. The big jump in caliber of defense they've faced in quite a while could easily mean Houston's defense struggles for the first time this season. I profile the total on this game as an Under++, the strongest Under lean I have. My total for the game is actually 48.5, so this bet isn't made on line value, it's based on the profile and Houston's easy schedule. It also works as a bit of insurance on the Houston play which I'm now less keen on because of the market move down on it -- If VAN covers I think it's because they limit Houston's offense. If the game goes Over I think Houston covers.
 
Good thoughts on the Houston game. I got under 2 touchdowns early and the lines sank. I was hoping more of that was the running back but vandy D numbers are pretty stout and against some decent competition. UCF came out ready to go last week on the defensive scheme and took Houston by surprise. You are right either Vandy keeps it close most of the game or the Houston offensive flood overtakes Vandy like it did UCF. I will prob just let my bet ride and see what happens. What is your projected score just curious?
 
Adding for 3 Units (to set up some buy back):

Duke -8 vs Miami (-110 5D)

Kaaya is doubtful for Miami, and he's the only thing that makes their offense go. His backup, Rosier, was a disaster when he had to come in the game last week. Yes, it was against my #1 pass defense, but still. He shouldn't be as bad this week, but it will be a road game, and Duke still has a good pass defense.

Beyond that, there are huge mismatches in the running games for these two teams. Miami's rush offense has been awful, ranked #114, and are now up against my #8 best rush defense. Meanwhile, Duke has a somewhat above average rush defense at 51st, while Miami has been a complete disaster against the run this year, ranking 120th.

There is huge line value here, in some part because the Bookmakers don't seem willing to believe that people will understand what a horrible match up this is for Miami in this game, especially with an inexperienced back up quarterback. Miami's leading receiver is "?" this game, as well. Duke won't be able to pass the ball very well, either, but they'll at least get the benefit of the Miami defense having to cheat to stop the run, while Duke's defense will have no such worry.
 
The UNC/Pitt total shot up to 59 today...any chance this comes back down or is it going to settle at 59?
 
Adding for .6 unit: PITT team total Under 29 (-110 5D)

I have one unit on the Over 52. My number is about 59 with no lean on the Over or Under profile, so going to try to middle for half w. .5 unit Under 59.5 (-108 5D)
 
This week's College Football Market Cheat Sheet

The Match Up Grids for today's games are on Twitter.

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A final grading of the week 8 Cheat Sheet and results:

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The usual amount of beating closing line value, with a solid +1.37 point median average better on totals. A solid 4.5% average gain on totals played made. It was hurt a little bit by weather hammering the Baylor total down. It, of course, ended up losing by one touchdown after Baylor went into the tank with the weather.

Frustrating past two weeks down 5+ units each week, in spite of the usual market gains etc. I will at least admit that I had a few bad plays last week, but 3 or so out of a bunch ain't bad, lol. Just overall not lucky, which is unfortunate as it coincided with the two weeks where I bumped up most of my plays 20% in size to reflect the bankroll growth. I bet extra units on my top 4 plays last week to set up some middle action. I middled back on 3, as planned, and ended up clearing both the original play and middle, so the middle portions were wasted. I forgot to middle back one of the four, Old Dominion, and of course! they were the one team that didn't cover the original +14.5 spread in spite of out gaining FIU in yards. So yeah, hit 3 of my top 4 and was still down on the week. Annoying. With as much volume as I play, all it takes is an accumulation of luck one way or the other to see those units rise and fall each week. My top 3 weeks have been around +9, +9 and +5, with my losing weeks -6, -5 and -5. Still up 18.5 average size bets, but clearly bummed after last Saturday after running so good for 5 weeks, lol. That being said, I didn't love the card the past two weeks -- you know, some weeks you feel more confident in your card that others. I backed a lot of garbage teams versus other garbage teams, and pretty much every single f***ing one of them shit the bed in one fashion or another. Garbage on garbage should be a coin flip, goddamnit, lol. Had two weekday action plays that were terrible losers. I can't win action plays, hardly ever, lol. The one positive from last week was my first half plays. I've been lucky and good at first half plays this year. I don't know if I've lost any, I think I'm approaching 10 for 10, lol.
 
Well, I guess it's me against the market in the first game of the week, lol. UNC sat at -3 for most of the week, but now they're dropping to -2 and lower. I'm going to buy back just one of the 3 units w/ PITT +2 (-105 5D).
 
Logging plays and I just realized I put two units on Georgia Southern -19.5 initially, to set up some buy back. Missed the +21, have to settle for TXST +20.5 for .5 unit.
 
Thx, Tim.

I have 3 units on LOU -9.5 (-115) later today. I'm buying back 1 unit on Wake +11.5 (-105 5D). Not sure if this one will go up much today, or wrongly down like the UNC-PITT line did yesterday, lol. Anyway, with more dead space available above than below, I'll just lock in the buy back now and live with it.
 
Couple of teaser funsies to spice up this Friday.

To win .5 unit each:

8 points, ties win, 2 teams (-158 5D)

LOU -3, ND -3

7.5 points, ties win, 2 teams (-143 5D)

STAN -3, LT -3

Good luck tonight and go Cardinals...and Cardinal!
 
I have 2 Units on the OKLA @ KU Under 66. Part of my middling strategy is going to be a "riskier yet perhaps better chance for the middle" 1st half Over bet. Oklahoma rates to get out to a comfortable halftime lead and then run the ball and the clock in the second half. They can easily score 34+ on their own in the first half. So adding for 0.6 unit OKLA @ KU Over 34 1st half (-105 BOL)
 
Looks like some of the big early moving lines have peaked and the buy backs are starting to come in...

I have CIN -20.5 for 2 units, buying back 0.5 with UCF +27 (-115 BOL)
 
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