The Sports Cruncher's 2015 CFB Week 06 Lines & Market Plays

T

TheSportsCruncher

Pretty much a regular
Another great week, now up 30.4 average size bets for the season.

1 Unit Plays:

Army +11 vs Duke
Virginia +10 @ Pitt
Baylor -38 @ Kansas
FAU -1.5 vs Rice (-120)
EMU +9 vs Akron (-115)
CONN +3 @ UCF (-115)
Troy +31.5 @ MSST
Tulsa -7 vs UL Monroe
Arkansas +16 @ Alabama
Boise -12 @ Colorado State (-115)
Wyoming +21.5 @ Air Force (-115)
Cal +7 @ Utah (+105)


0.6 Unit Plays

USM +6.5 @ Marshall (-115)
Miami Ohio +17.5 @ Ohio
Minnesota -2.5 vs Purdue (-115)
Ball St. +10.5 @ NIU (-115)
WSU +20 @ ORE
FLA -3.5 @ MIZZ
New Mexico +6 @ Nevada
Syracuse +4 @ USF
Texas Tech -11.5 vs Iowa State
Nebraska pick vs Wisconsin
Rutgers +17 vs Michigan State
 
Glad to see you on Ball State .. thought I was going crazy. Don't understand how that cannot be moving.
 
Thx guys.

0.6 Unit:

SDSU +2.5 @ HAW
NCST +1.5 @ VT
UTEP +14.5 @ FIU
MD +32 @ OSU (probably add another half just waiting to see how stupid high the OSU line gets again this week)
 
Did someone say it's brag hour? I think I heard someone say it, lol.

After 5 weeks #1 at ThePredictionTracker ATS on all games hitting almost 58% vs 50+ models.

For 2 weeks in a row #1 in lowest average error at CFBPredictions vs 40+ models.
 
Thx, ksimp, brother in crushing it. :)

Wyoming all the way up to +25 on service steam so I'm taking another unit on them to set up a middle. I'll be shocked if this # doesn't close lower than 24, but then again I was surprised when the number against Appalachian stayed as high as it did last week. Completely unwarranted -- Wyoming outgained APP by 60 yards but were done in by -2 turnover margin in APP territory. This games is not that freaking unsimilar. "Unsimilar" is a word, forum spell checker, look it up, lol.
 
Adding for .6 unit: ILL +11.5 @ IOWA

Illinois will be without leading RB Ferguson, but they do have some depth behind him. Iowa is a pretty good team, I put them at 19th right now, it looks like, but the match ups like about a 7 point win for them.
 
Totals

1 Unit Each:


UTEP @ FIU UNDER 49.5
UNM @ NEV UNDER 57
TXST @ ULL OVER 69.5
OKST @ WVU OVER 57
ISU @ TTU OVER 75
GT @ CLEM UNDER 56.5
RICE @ FAU OVER 58
UVA @ PITT UNDER 48.5
BALL ST @ NIU UNDER 56
MASS @ BGSU OVER 75

0.6 Unit each:


NCST @ VT UNDER 53
CAL @ UTAH OVER 62.5
MIA @ FSU OVER 50.5
FLA @ MIZZ UNDER 40
ECU @ BYU OVER 56
ORST @ ARIZ OVER 64.5
WIS @ NEB OVER 46.5
MTU @ WKU OVER 65
UGA @ TENN OVER 57
KENT @ TOL UNDER 45.5
AKR @ EMU UNDER 56
TULN @ TEM UNDER 49
WASH @ USC OVER 56
 
Last edited:
.6 Unit: WAKE @ BC Under 37 This one showing signs of creeping down.

Man, it feels so NFL betting 37s, lol.

It's a funny week for totals with some extreme Lows and a handful of rather highs (Though nothing in the TTU vs BAY range of last week, lol).
 
Ridiculous to show value on an Under 36 in college foots, but there ya' have it -- I do on the NW @ MICH game, and the line is starting to drop now.

Adding for .6 Unit: NW @ MICH Under 36
 
TheSportsCruncher said:
.6 Unit: WAKE @ BC Under 37 This one showing signs of creeping down.

Man, it feels so NFL betting 37s, lol.

It's a funny week for totals with some extreme Lows and a handful of rather highs (Though nothing in the TTU vs BAY range of last week, lol).
Click to expand...
haha thats pretty funny and very true. In every game but the howard game the total did not go above 31 for BC
 
Adding for .6 Unit: SJSU @ UNLV Under 54

UNLV QB Decker "emergency only" vs SJSU this week, which is why the $ is coming in on SJSU and the Under.
 
Week #5 and YTD Results:

Started off Saturday morning stuck in a bit of a hole because the East coast hurricane rain spoiled some early Over plays I made, as well as the double downs I made when the lines got real low and I was hoping to break even catching a final score in between the two plays at least, lol. No such luck. Fortunately I liked some Unders even more on the later starts and they all came in to get things back on track finishing with another great week.

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And a final look at the week 5 Cheat Sheet and final scores against the market. The hurricane did whammy all of those totals that show big negative value.

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GL this week SC, any thoughts on why App State line has dropped like it has? 15 looks to be pretty good value on App. State.
 
I line it at 16.3 so it seems about right to me. I think it's dropping because GAST is at home and rates to have enough passing offense to keep the game within a couple of scores. APP should run roughshod all over them, but that backdoor is gonna' be wide open, just like it was against WYO last week. WYO outgained APP last week, but turnovers in APP territory let the game get out of hand for them.
 
I assume a simple typo, but just a headsup that you have Pitt vs VT under when Pitt is playing UVA
 
TheSportsCruncher said:
I line it at 16.3 so it seems about right to me. I think it's dropping because GAST is at home and rates to have enough passing offense to keep the game within a couple of scores. APP should run roughshod all over them, but that backdoor is gonna' be wide open, just like it was against WYO last week. WYO outgained APP last week, but turnovers in APP territory let the game get out of hand for them.
Click to expand...
Thanks appreciate your thoughts SC.
 
Thx, CC. Fun twitter times tonight with that piece as genius Utah fans with no handicapping knowledge tell me how a special teams or defensive score counts the same as any other score, lol.
 
I'm hearing Maryland coach will be fired after Ohio State game, if so, would you make this a no play? I really liked Randy Edsall with his stint at UCONN, but really didn't do anything at Maryland.
 
Gordon gekko said:
I'm hearing Maryland coach will be fired after Ohio State game, if so, would you make this a no play? I really liked Randy Edsall with his stint at UCONN, but really didn't do anything at Maryland.
Click to expand...

Nah, I'd let it ride, GG. I figure everyone comes to play hard every game they play, that's how they got to be collegiate players, by and large.
 
TheSportsCruncher said:
Nah, I'd let it ride, GG. I figure everyone comes to play hard every game they play, that's how they got to be collegiate players, by and large.
Click to expand...
I do generally agree with this but definitely get sketched out by teams that don't care for their coach Examples being Virginia or Maryland even though I am on maryland this week
 
Here's my week 6 College Football Market Cheat Sheet. PM for details on getting it Sunday for the following week.

I have been updating things getting ready for week 7, and a few of my lines have changed, but this is the sheet that got sent out so I'll use it for score-keeping this week. Personally I have the SMU @ HOU line close to what it actually is now, and favor Baylor to cover the current higher number, still.

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Took Washington +10.5 live just now, they've been winning the line of scrimmage last two possessions I've watched. USC center out. But then again, I wasn't watching when USC was running well, and live bets for me are usually the kiss of death, lol.
 
TheSportsCruncher said:
I line it at 16.3 so it seems about right to me. I think it's dropping because GAST is at home and rates to have enough passing offense to keep the game within a couple of scores. APP should run roughshod all over them, but that backdoor is gonna' be wide open, just like it was against WYO last week. WYO outgained APP last week, but turnovers in APP territory let the game get out of hand for them.
Click to expand...
APP first half?
 
I have .6 of a unit on the NCST @ VT Under 53. That line has come down way too far, and QB Brewer will be back for VT as well. Good spot to go for the huge middle. Adding for 0.6 unit Over 46.
 
wow SC I didnt know the line dropped that much. I got the 53 too, that is almost too tempting to pass up
 
Adding for 1 Unit: USM @ Marshall Over 56 (-106 5D)

Marshall RB Johnson is now probable, and I guess it doesn't really matter who plays QB for Marshall when you compare their stats. Marshall should feature a healthy dose of running, anyway, versus a terrible USM run defense. Marshall has the best pass pass defense that USM has faced this year, so hopefully USM goes with a balanced attack as Marshall's run defense has been below average. Light rain forecast for early in the game. Let's hope it doesn't make for slick balls that kill the passing game like it did in many games back East last week.
 
Well, it's certainly on pace at the half, lol. I have a 15-22 point window on the second half scoring, which is possible with these teams. The wrong teams getting the last 6 touchdowns, I think, lol. Southern Miss. getting into Marshall territory at least last 4 possessions and getting zero points. I know I'm gonna' miss my total by one point because USM had that field goal blocked inside the 10.
 
TheSportsCruncher said:
Well, it's certainly on pace at the half, lol. I have a 15-22 point window on the second half scoring, which is possible with these teams. The wrong teams getting the last 6 touchdowns, I think, lol. Southern Miss. getting into Marshall territory at least last 4 possessions and getting zero points. I know I'm gonna' miss my total by one point because USM had that field goal blocked inside the 10.
Click to expand...
So Miss game has been tough to watch from the over, +7 perspective and kicking myself for not buying the -3 at the middle op
 
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