JPicks
Pretty much a regular
NBA Playoffs 0-0-0 +0.00 Units 
Raptors vs Nets
The "Vince" Series as it's being dubbed. I have a major lean on the Raptors here. The Nets aren't as jackle and hyde to me as some others. I really don't think they are a good road team. They are veteran enough to beat the teams that they should beat on the road, but aren't good enough to beat anybody good on the road. Look at their schedule on the road since Feb.1. I use Feb.1 because that's about the time they started picking it up for the playoff run.
They played 19 games on the road. They went 8-11 SU and 7-10-1 ATS basically winning SU or losing ATS. Those 8 victories were against Atlanta (2 pts), Boston (23 pts), Memphis (11pts), Hornets (4 pts), Charlotte (6 pts in OT), Washington (4 pts, sans Butler&Arenas), Pacers (4 pts), Knicks (9 pts). Of those victories I'd say the Hornets victory was probably their best. The rest of these teams were either A) trying to lose or B) playing without stars or C) all of the above. They lost by DD's, during this time period, on the road to Orlando (33pts), Toronto (11pts), Philly (13pts), all the Texas teams by 13+, Chicago (31), and Cleveland (18). Not to mention their 2 losses at Philly as well.
Bottom line is that I think this line is shaded for a Vince factor. So let's look at VC's #'s at Toronto. 5 for 15 on Feb. 14 for 17 points. He was in the middle of a pretty solid 20+ run before throwing up bricks north of the border. 4 of 17 for 12 points on Dec. 15. Bottom line is I think Vince is mentally weak and he has a problem with 20G+ booing the shit out of him. He can pound his chest all he wants after the victory over the Bulls while talking about how excited he is to play the Raptors. Careful what you wish for.
I think this line should be closer to 6.5. When these teams played on Feb. 14 the Raptors were favored by 9.5. Both teams were on a b2b and off of travel so the line should have been fairly even. Raptors won 120-109. I really don't think the Nets have done enough over the last two months to move this line down 5 points. They've beat a bunch of teams that had no desire to win and got their asses handed to them by teams that we're fighting for positioning. So what reasons has the line moved so dramatically for?
The one thing that I've heard alot of Jersey backers lean on is experience. I 100% agree that experience is key in the playoffs. Bosh and co. have no experience while the Nets got swept in '04 to the Pacers and lost to the Heat last year in the semis in 5 games. As Charles Barkley would say, "No series starts until a home team loses". I'm not sure that the Raptors are going to fully understand that it's the playoffs until they hit the road. Should be a great atmosphere for the first playoff game since 2002 in Toronto.
I may be wrong as I've certainly been before, but that's my take on this game.
Raptors -4.5 4 Units
One last interesting stat. The Nets are 12-3 O/U over the last two years in the playoffs. Game 3 may be a spot for me to play the over depending on how the first two shake out. I just don't trust Vince to help enough with the scoring load in Toronto.
I've also tailed B.A.R. and Billivy with the Suns/Lakers U 214 for 4 units.
Also played the Jazz/Rockets O184 and then the U185. Having 2nd thoughts about the over. I really think the Jazz have to push the ball in transition in order to be competitive in this series. The line definitely has me thinking the Jazz should be competitive, but I'm not so sure. Either way I'll just sit out the 1st game and see what happens. So no play on the total. Hoping it lands on 184 or 185.
I'm working on some stuff for the other games and will have them up tomorrow sometime. Definitely on the Heat but for slightly different reasons than most. Still thinking about the Pistons game. Line seems a bit short, but for what reason?
GL to all this weekend. Nothing like a good start to get things rolling.
Raptors vs Nets
The "Vince" Series as it's being dubbed. I have a major lean on the Raptors here. The Nets aren't as jackle and hyde to me as some others. I really don't think they are a good road team. They are veteran enough to beat the teams that they should beat on the road, but aren't good enough to beat anybody good on the road. Look at their schedule on the road since Feb.1. I use Feb.1 because that's about the time they started picking it up for the playoff run.
They played 19 games on the road. They went 8-11 SU and 7-10-1 ATS basically winning SU or losing ATS. Those 8 victories were against Atlanta (2 pts), Boston (23 pts), Memphis (11pts), Hornets (4 pts), Charlotte (6 pts in OT), Washington (4 pts, sans Butler&Arenas), Pacers (4 pts), Knicks (9 pts). Of those victories I'd say the Hornets victory was probably their best. The rest of these teams were either A) trying to lose or B) playing without stars or C) all of the above. They lost by DD's, during this time period, on the road to Orlando (33pts), Toronto (11pts), Philly (13pts), all the Texas teams by 13+, Chicago (31), and Cleveland (18). Not to mention their 2 losses at Philly as well.
Bottom line is that I think this line is shaded for a Vince factor. So let's look at VC's #'s at Toronto. 5 for 15 on Feb. 14 for 17 points. He was in the middle of a pretty solid 20+ run before throwing up bricks north of the border. 4 of 17 for 12 points on Dec. 15. Bottom line is I think Vince is mentally weak and he has a problem with 20G+ booing the shit out of him. He can pound his chest all he wants after the victory over the Bulls while talking about how excited he is to play the Raptors. Careful what you wish for.
I think this line should be closer to 6.5. When these teams played on Feb. 14 the Raptors were favored by 9.5. Both teams were on a b2b and off of travel so the line should have been fairly even. Raptors won 120-109. I really don't think the Nets have done enough over the last two months to move this line down 5 points. They've beat a bunch of teams that had no desire to win and got their asses handed to them by teams that we're fighting for positioning. So what reasons has the line moved so dramatically for?
The one thing that I've heard alot of Jersey backers lean on is experience. I 100% agree that experience is key in the playoffs. Bosh and co. have no experience while the Nets got swept in '04 to the Pacers and lost to the Heat last year in the semis in 5 games. As Charles Barkley would say, "No series starts until a home team loses". I'm not sure that the Raptors are going to fully understand that it's the playoffs until they hit the road. Should be a great atmosphere for the first playoff game since 2002 in Toronto.
I may be wrong as I've certainly been before, but that's my take on this game.
Raptors -4.5 4 Units
One last interesting stat. The Nets are 12-3 O/U over the last two years in the playoffs. Game 3 may be a spot for me to play the over depending on how the first two shake out. I just don't trust Vince to help enough with the scoring load in Toronto.
I've also tailed B.A.R. and Billivy with the Suns/Lakers U 214 for 4 units.
Also played the Jazz/Rockets O184 and then the U185. Having 2nd thoughts about the over. I really think the Jazz have to push the ball in transition in order to be competitive in this series. The line definitely has me thinking the Jazz should be competitive, but I'm not so sure. Either way I'll just sit out the 1st game and see what happens. So no play on the total. Hoping it lands on 184 or 185.
I'm working on some stuff for the other games and will have them up tomorrow sometime. Definitely on the Heat but for slightly different reasons than most. Still thinking about the Pistons game. Line seems a bit short, but for what reason?
GL to all this weekend. Nothing like a good start to get things rolling.
