The "Pro" Thread That May just Have It All!!!

[G-Man]

PRO Football ONLY!

We will gain much insight here in this thread, providing that YOU respond appropriately. Interaction will be priceless - if what's posted - can be used as good facts for capping.

I am looking for ways each of you cap a game. While there could be many statistics involved, please use only your best 5 reasons or stats - or less - that brings a play to life for you.

These will all become analyzed and responded to by everyone who wants to reflect on your capping ideas. Please explain as much as needed, to allow all of us to understand what works for everyone.

The more "detail" the better.

(I'll kindly ask that nobody posts any BS, as we intend to keep the thread all about logical effective methods, that the guys posting here use. I will ask mods to delete any nonsense, to allow all the responses to be shared by those who are trying to find serious, valuable information.)

 

[G-Man]

C'mon guys.

Arent any of you capping pro football differently then you cap college ball?

 

[frankiegotti]

This trend/angle is pretty much self-explanatory.. Bet against super bowl losers and bet on super bowl winners the following season in week 1.

G-Man, for the most part NFL cappers who are quite successful are not sharing there capping secrets is because they are very hard to come by and quite possibly NFL is the hardest league to cap (yes i know it's open for interpretation) so therefore successful strategies are harder to find thus being more tight lipped.

 

[brewer]

^:cheers:

 

[RetroVK]

Made this point in your CFB thread but I will put it here too.

If you like the dog on sunday night or monday night football , as a general rule it is good to wait.

If you like the under on sunday night or monday night football , as a general rule it is good to wait.

If you like the favorite on sunday night or monday night football , as a general rule it is good to get your bet in as early as possible.

If you like the over on sunday night or monday night football , as a general rule it is good to get your bet in as early as possible.

These two football games each week are the most bet on games of the weekend and are also the games that "chasers" will hit to recover from losing saturdays and sundays. The average fan and the average chaser like to bet favorites and overs.

One thing to keep in mind with the NFL is that teams don't change as dramatically year over year as teams in cfb. For this reason , in the NFL , I like to look over the previous year for each team and see which types of teams that specific clubs succeeded against and failed against. They are likely to do the same vs similar styles in the upcoming year.

 

[Blue_Chip]

For this reason , in the NFL , I like to look over the previous year for each team and see which types of teams that specific clubs succeeded against and failed against. They are likely to do the same vs similar styles in the upcoming year.

My thoughts exactly, except Kyle is a proven NFL winner, I'm just a rookie. My only wisdom last year was telling friends to bet New England to cover every game starting the season, and I called it quits in Week 9, so I got everyone out before NE failed to cover the second half of the year.

 

[G-Man]

This trend/angle is pretty much self-explanatory.. Bet against super bowl losers and bet on super bowl winners the following season in week 1.

G-Man, for the most part NFL cappers who are quite successful are not sharing there capping secrets is because they are very hard to come by and quite possibly NFL is the hardest league to cap (yes i know it's open for interpretation) so therefore successful strategies are harder to find thus being more tight lipped.

I appreciate the one-game system FG.

Im also looking for guys who have a consistent capping system or method that is worthy over the whole season.

Most of the guys that bet both college and pro seem to have different systems. Some dont even cap pro, while others dont cap college?

What Im looking for here, are more viewpoints that validate, so others can get some good insight.

:shake:

 

[G-Man]

Made this point in your CFB thread but I will put it here too.

If you like the dog on sunday night or monday night football , as a general rule it is good to wait.

If you like the under on sunday night or monday night football , as a general rule it is good to wait.

If you like the favorite on sunday night or monday night football , as a general rule it is good to get your bet in as early as possible.

If you like the over on sunday night or monday night football , as a general rule it is good to get your bet in as early as possible.

These two football games each week are the most bet on games of the weekend and are also the games that "chasers" will hit to recover from losing saturdays and sundays. The average fan and the average chaser like to bet favorites and overs.

One thing to keep in mind with the NFL is that teams don't change as dramatically year over year as teams in cfb. For this reason , in the NFL , I like to look over the previous year for each team and see which types of teams that specific clubs succeeded against and failed against. They are likely to do the same vs similar styles in the upcoming year.

VK thanks for the response. How do you cap pro's?

Wouldnt you already know who you like in week one, as lines are already posted?

:shake:

 

[frankiegotti]

I went to the capping convention they hold annually at mandalay bay, well at least they said it was annual. They talked about all kinds of methods.....One pro bettor there tipped his hand a little bit and talked about researching teams that foil 2 or more redzone possessions by oppoents the week before look to see previously about 10 times or so what has happened.

I can remember one team on teh list is philadelphia. I usually bet them blindly in situations where they turn they foil oppoents 3 or more times in teh red zone the previous week are 11-0 ATS.

 

[RetroVK]

Wouldnt you already know who you like in week one, as lines are already posted?

Even if i had already done the work ( and i havent started my nfl yet ) , I wouldn't be able to bet the week 1 lines yet. have an entire preseason to get through. Injuries could be huge and in some cases you dont have a good idea as to who the starters will be..., and there are some things to look for in the preseason as far as what to expect ( from a style perspective not necessarily a success perspective ) from certain teams.

 

[Blue_Chip]

Injuries could be huge

That's why I recommend waiting as late as possible when betting the Saints because Deuce McAllister can hurt himself getting out of his Escalade to go into the stadium. Once Deuce is out, Bush becomes worthless; therefore, all offense goes through Brees and his receivers, which is not a terrible thing. The problem is that even when Brees scores, we do not eat the clock, so our shitty defense is on the field far too long. And, just about anyone in the NFL and D1 football can pass on the Saints' secondary without Roman Harper.

 

[frankiegotti]

If your betting on a new england game DO NOT RELY ON INJURY REPORTS, they are about as factual as Enron's balance sheets. Point is that Coach Bill does not want to give oppents any advantage at all.

 

[G-Man]

I went to the capping convention they hold annually at mandalay bay, well at least they said it was annual. They talked about all kinds of methods.....One pro bettor there tipped his hand a little bit and talked about researching teams that foil 2 or more redzone possessions by oppoents the week before look to see previously about 10 times or so what has happened.

I can remember one team on teh list is philadelphia. I usually bet them blindly in situations where they turn they foil oppoents 3 or more times in teh red zone the previous week are 11-0 ATS.

Please explain this system again in more detail? Im not sure if you are talking about the Eagles opponent or the Eagles? ("where they turn they foil")

Also, how far back did you go for this 11-0 trend?
:shake:

 

[frankiegotti]

Since 2000 I believe is the number they gave. Bet on the eagles if the previous week the eagles defense recovers a turnover in the redzone 3 or more times.