The Preakness

[bjorks]

Not a lot of chatter on Saturday's race by anyone. I've looked at the card and am pretty confident I already know what I'm going to do.

The obvious choice is Big Brown. Dutrow looks like a genius for taking the 20 spot. Nobody to BB's right and just let him pick his spot for the first 1/4 and then watch what everyone else does. He said he had the best horse in the field and was absolutely right.

My money is going to be on the daily double as BB looks to open at 3-to-5. Even some of the futures put him at 1-to-4 or -350 to win.

Friday's card in race 10 has my gem I'll pair with BB for the double. I really, really like Gotcha Gold here. IMO, the class of the race.

As for the Preakness, everyone is scared of BB, except Gayego, who finished 17th at the Derby. If you watch the race again, you'll notice after Gayego got bumped Jockey Mike Smith did something very smart. He knew he was out of the money and put Gayego on cruise control...live to fight another day.

If there's one horse that can make a run at BB Saturday it's Gayego, who coincidently was I believe the 2nd highest rated Beyer's horse at the Derby! If the Derby taught us one thing, it was that it was a slow race based on Beyer's numbers, and BB still was 107! He was/is the class of the crop.

2 other horses that should finish in the Top 5 Saturday. Tres Borrachos and Kentucky Bear.

My Bets.

Double - Gotcha Gold and Big Brown
Ex/Tri Box - BB, Gayego, Tres Borrachos, Kentucky Bear
Super - Same

95% of the field is running for place and show. It's still a nice purse and with the Derby field not running, it puts a lot of average horses in a position to win some green.

 

[RetroVK]

big brown going to be 1/9 at post ?

 

[bjorks]

I highly doubt it'll get that high, but nothing would surprise me. With Gayego entering the field and the books looking at his performance and what really happened at the Derby they'll keep BB bettable. Is that a word? Bettable?

but, it wouldn't surprise me if he opened at like 1-to-7 the morning of.

 

[E.T.G.]

im going to be there, ohh what a party it is going to be, thats about all the input i have right now

 

[RetroVK]

so jealous of you right now etg

 

[posey55]

I'm new to horse betting but I'm goin to my local Track on Saturday to watch bet on some races and simulcast the Preakness... Is there a site that has "tip sheets" or whatever they're called where it gives speed, pace, past races, trainer/jockey record, etc.

Should be a fun day :cheers:

 

[bjorks]

Buy the forum that comes out that day. A lot of information so if you don't know how to read one it may be difficult. For about $10 a great site is drf.com

 

[betdahouse]

Im gonna be there as well. Its like my favorite sporting event every year. 5 years straight now. Im thinking about an exacta on BB and Behingthebar. BIG money on it. BB is such a huge fav. that all my bets will be exacta and trifecta having him finishing fist in all and then switching the rest up a lil. Hoping to get lucky. And for me with gambling on all the races all day and the several stops at concession stands, cash can be sometimes scarce come 6 oclock. So well see how finances are looking.:moose::moose::moose::moose::moose:my horses has horns!!!

 

[bjorks]

Good luck man, Didn't like Behindatthebar's speed numbers. I think he's waaay overvalued at 10-1. Gayego is the clearly the 2nd fastest horse if you throw away his Derby performance, which you should.

My long shot I'm hoping comes int is Tres Borrachos as I said.

I'd also look to the double with the race on Friday. That may have the best chance for big payout with Big Brown.

 

[B.A.R.]

so jealous of you right now etg

totally agree

sometime in next 4-5 years I gotta get to one of these

 

[B.A.R.]

Good thread bjorks BTW

 

[bull]

bjorks- you got anything besides Gotcha Gold on today's card??

 

[bjorks]

bjorks- you got anything besides Gotcha Gold on today's card??

Not really. I'm a very selective horse player.

 

[bull]

GL to you 'an_horse' :shake:

 

[bjorks]

Thanks, I should say also, I'm very selective of what horses I post here. Not to be a jerk, but for some reason I don't like the idea of people tailing my horse picks because I generally lose and don't want you to either.

If I'm confident, I'll post. I'm very confident today and tomorrow BTW!!!

Gotcha Gold is 9/2 right now
Big Brown is 1/2
Gayego is 8/1
Kentucky Brown is 15/1
Tres Borrachos is 30/1

I really think the Preakness will be a 2 horse race if that. Gayego is the only horse that has a chance to beat BB. BUT if for some reason the two other speedsters, Kentucky Brown and Tres Borrachos slip past, there's going to be a nice payday.

 

[E.T.G.]

im just saying fuk it,eating chalk like a motherfucker and hope BB is 1:2 when I get there at 7am, I am taking him bigtime, dun fuken play me out Big Brown

 

[RetroVK]

Thanks, I should say also, I'm very selective of what horses I post here. Not to be a jerk, but for some reason I don't like the idea of people tailing my horse picks because I generally lose and don't want you to either.


The number of people who can beat horse racing is miniscule at best. The tracks just take WAY WAY WAY too much out of the pool. It is hard to be 13-17 percent better at handicapping these races than the combined pool of the other cappers ... especially the connected cappers/bettors at each local track.

You aren't alone in losing at this sport .... but while i lose at horse betting i really enjoy handicapping it. Of course , i suck at it ... and you are probably good at it .... but it is nice to see that you are upfront with folks about the sport. It is just extremely difficult to beat.

If you are good at it and people are willing to bet your picks over ones they would make themselves , then at a minimum you are saving them money anyway.... if you follow my logic . So you shouldnt feel bad about that but i know what you mean.

gl in the preakness bud.

 

[RetroVK]

anyone have the odds on BB to win the triple crown ?

 

[bjorks]

I want to say last week the ML was like -170/NO

They took it off the board though because there were concerns about BB's feet and the cracks in his hooves.

I know what you mena Kyle about the horse stuff. I do feel weird about it though. If you know people who bet horses/dogs, you know everyone is different and they look for different things. Very few people are willing to teach you, but I learned from a good friend of mine. It's very much a feel thing and what someone may think is key another may scoff at, etc.

My friend has been in the World Series of Horse Racing the last few years so he knows what he's doing, but for him to hit above 10-11% at his favorite tracks is tough. He plays it very careful and that's what he's passed down to me.

There's A LOT of shady shit that happens at tracks and in horseracing. I know for a fact in AZ the jockey's will split the purse if a certain horse is getting bet down and it happens all over the place. Dogs are even worse. I'm already worried about my picks for the Preakness because I guy who writes a racing forum out of Minneapolis who is generally awful and I fade has 3 of my 4 horses as his picks too. I guess in a way he see's it the same with there being a lot of throw outs tomorrow.