BlitzBandit
Friend of CTG
it's playoff time... kicking things off with...
ATLANTA @ ARIZONA +2.5
( 3.3 to win 3 )
FALCONS:
The Falcons running attack has been their dominant force for the last seven weeks. They have produced 14 touchdowns on the ground and only 5 through the air in that span. Even though I think the Falcons should be able to run effectively here as well, I think they will probably pass a little more than normal this week playing against a Zona defense that has allowed a league worst 36 touchdown passes during the regular season. That’s nine more than any other team in the league. That’s also the most ever allowed by a division champion in the last 30 years. There have only been six teams that have given up over 30 touchdown passes in a season and made the playoffs. Matt Ryan, Roddy White, and Michael Turner will probably all have a good game which is why this is expected to be a shootout. Matt Ryan has averaged 234 yards in his last 11 games, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go over 250 in this one. I’m still pretty stunned at how good he’s been as a rookie this year. The thing is, in the final three weeks, he has thrown for an average of 167 yards per game and has only two touchdowns with four interceptions and three fumbles. He was also sacked four times in that span. Still, he’s helped the Falcons win some pretty big games. They beat San Diego and Minnesota on the road and they stomped on Carolina pretty good at the Georgia Dome about a month ago. Arizona has been pretty good at times against the run, but Michael Turner should still be Michael Turner. Besides, the Cardinals have allowed over 180 rushing yards in three of their past five games and Turner in that same span has been tearing shit up consistently breaking tackles, piling up yards and punching in touchdowns. He's run for over 150 yards in two of his last three games and he's scored in seven of his last eight. No reason to think he’ll be stopped here. One of the little flaws Turner has is in his production as a pass catcher. He’s only had 6 catches for 41 yards all year.
CARDINALS:
Arizona didn’t play too well towards the end of the season, but they are playing at home here. During the regular season, they were ranked in the top 4 in both yards and scoring. The Atlanta defense they’ll be facing this week isn’t anything spectacular enough to stop that kind of force. The Falcons finished the regular season in the bottom 10 against the pass and against the run. But at the same time, only ten teams allowed less points than the them so they seem to have the ability of making stops at the right time and playing much tougher in the red zone. Still, the Cards should have success against this defense. Arizona was ranked last in rushing during the regular season, but Atlanta allowed 127 rushing yards per game in the regular season as well as 17 rushing touchdowns. So I think the running game should be able to work just as effectively as the passing game for the Cards in this one. But let's not kid ourselves, the Cardinals are a passing team and there are areas to exploit in Atlanta's secondary. The Falcons allowed 236 passing yards per game in the regular season. Arizona finished at 305 passing yards per game. Second only to the Saints. In their last 10 games, the Cardinals scored 19 tds through the air and only 6 on the ground. Atlanta is not a sock em’ in the mouth type defense that can shutdown Kurt Warner so I really doubt that happens.
Overview:
There is a reason the line is so high on the total in this game. I won’t mess with it, but I would lean to the OVER if anything. If you are going to be on the UNDER, it would probably be wiser to take it for the first half. Arizona is a team that has to warm up before it starts ticking. The Cardinals ranked 26th in their offensive DVOA production in the first quarter averaging 5.6 yards per play, but they ranked 4th for the rest of the game averaging 6.2 yards per play. That could be a scary thought for those taking the Falcons if this stays a close game going into the second half. Arizona's offense ranked second in the NFL during late and close situations while Atlantas’ defense was ranked 29th. Another thing to note is that Atlanta went 1-3 SU on the road against teams with winning records this year. I'll take my chances on that trend and on Warner at home here.
gl to all these playoffs... let's all make it a good one.
ATLANTA @ ARIZONA +2.5
( 3.3 to win 3 )
FALCONS:
The Falcons running attack has been their dominant force for the last seven weeks. They have produced 14 touchdowns on the ground and only 5 through the air in that span. Even though I think the Falcons should be able to run effectively here as well, I think they will probably pass a little more than normal this week playing against a Zona defense that has allowed a league worst 36 touchdown passes during the regular season. That’s nine more than any other team in the league. That’s also the most ever allowed by a division champion in the last 30 years. There have only been six teams that have given up over 30 touchdown passes in a season and made the playoffs. Matt Ryan, Roddy White, and Michael Turner will probably all have a good game which is why this is expected to be a shootout. Matt Ryan has averaged 234 yards in his last 11 games, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go over 250 in this one. I’m still pretty stunned at how good he’s been as a rookie this year. The thing is, in the final three weeks, he has thrown for an average of 167 yards per game and has only two touchdowns with four interceptions and three fumbles. He was also sacked four times in that span. Still, he’s helped the Falcons win some pretty big games. They beat San Diego and Minnesota on the road and they stomped on Carolina pretty good at the Georgia Dome about a month ago. Arizona has been pretty good at times against the run, but Michael Turner should still be Michael Turner. Besides, the Cardinals have allowed over 180 rushing yards in three of their past five games and Turner in that same span has been tearing shit up consistently breaking tackles, piling up yards and punching in touchdowns. He's run for over 150 yards in two of his last three games and he's scored in seven of his last eight. No reason to think he’ll be stopped here. One of the little flaws Turner has is in his production as a pass catcher. He’s only had 6 catches for 41 yards all year.
CARDINALS:
Arizona didn’t play too well towards the end of the season, but they are playing at home here. During the regular season, they were ranked in the top 4 in both yards and scoring. The Atlanta defense they’ll be facing this week isn’t anything spectacular enough to stop that kind of force. The Falcons finished the regular season in the bottom 10 against the pass and against the run. But at the same time, only ten teams allowed less points than the them so they seem to have the ability of making stops at the right time and playing much tougher in the red zone. Still, the Cards should have success against this defense. Arizona was ranked last in rushing during the regular season, but Atlanta allowed 127 rushing yards per game in the regular season as well as 17 rushing touchdowns. So I think the running game should be able to work just as effectively as the passing game for the Cards in this one. But let's not kid ourselves, the Cardinals are a passing team and there are areas to exploit in Atlanta's secondary. The Falcons allowed 236 passing yards per game in the regular season. Arizona finished at 305 passing yards per game. Second only to the Saints. In their last 10 games, the Cardinals scored 19 tds through the air and only 6 on the ground. Atlanta is not a sock em’ in the mouth type defense that can shutdown Kurt Warner so I really doubt that happens.
Overview:
There is a reason the line is so high on the total in this game. I won’t mess with it, but I would lean to the OVER if anything. If you are going to be on the UNDER, it would probably be wiser to take it for the first half. Arizona is a team that has to warm up before it starts ticking. The Cardinals ranked 26th in their offensive DVOA production in the first quarter averaging 5.6 yards per play, but they ranked 4th for the rest of the game averaging 6.2 yards per play. That could be a scary thought for those taking the Falcons if this stays a close game going into the second half. Arizona's offense ranked second in the NFL during late and close situations while Atlantas’ defense was ranked 29th. Another thing to note is that Atlanta went 1-3 SU on the road against teams with winning records this year. I'll take my chances on that trend and on Warner at home here.
gl to all these playoffs... let's all make it a good one.
:shake:
