The Kids are back! College football 2024

[RBD]

College football season is finally here.

Class is back in session.

The Battle with the Books begins anew.

“Once more unto the breach.”

“Cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war.”

“Sound trumpets and let our bloody colours wave. And either victory or else a grave!”

“I’ll fight till from my bones my flesh be hacked,
or my betting account monies be emptied!”

Only one of those lines is not from Bill S.
Guess which.

Anyway...

Today I'm on Miss -41.

Yes, it's a high number. Really high. I usually lean towards Unders because that's where I have the most success, but when I have a high percentage on a play I don't care what the number is. And this situational spot for week 1 only games is 16-8, 67%, over the last 4 years, and 4-2 this year. (Note - I am NOT saying my record is 4-2, I'm saying the record of the play is 4-2. It's like if I said, "The NY Liberty are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games." I'm not saying I'm 8-2, I'm merely pointing out a stat that supports my play on a game.)

The first couple weeks of any sport is difficult to handicap because you don’t really have a lot of stats to work with. And this is especially true of college football in these days of the transfer portal. You can give some weight to coaching tendencies (as I do in this game) but not so much for the teams themselves because of high player turnover.

So where did I get this play from? It's just one of about a dozen I've developed over the years and track and chart each season.

And yeah, it's a lot of points.
But if you're going to lay a lot of points, Lane's the man you want to do it with.
He knows why college teams put an FCS sacrificial lamb at the start of their schedule.
And he has no problem slaughtering them.

Last year's lamb? Mercer. Score? 73-7

Two years ago? Central Arkansas. Score? 59-3

Three years ago? Austin Peay. Score? 54-17

Next up - Furman.

USC Un 7' (+100) Regular Season Wins

(And F me for the long write-up. In between when I started writing this and finished editing and posting, the lines has gone up 1'!)

The play is Miss -42'.

 

[HUNT]

kids in the hall

 

[STEED]

Go get it

 

[B.A.R.]

Like that RSW !!

 

[RBD]

Thanks, Carolina, Cavs, and Steed.
Same to you.

B.A.R,
First game of the season doesn't make or break an RSW but tomorrow night's contest is pretty big as it will give an indicator of what the season is going to be like for USC facing new opponents.
I'm confident about the analysis I shared in LVMike's thread but it's a game that I have marked as a sure L, if USC wins it I'm going to need to find another W where I wasn't expecting one. I thought the line would stay the same or go up a hook or so, but it's dropped. Either way, looking like a fun game to watch.

Hunt,
I'm straight but I could dig having a beer with Buddy Cole.

 

[B.A.R.]

Thanks, Carolina, Cavs, and Steed.
Same to you.

B.A.R,
First game of the season doesn't make or break an RSW but tomorrow night's contest is pretty big as it will give an indicator of what the season is going to be like for USC facing new opponents.
I'm confident about the analysis I shared in LVMike's thread but it's a game that I have marked as a sure L, if USC wins it I'm going to need to find another W where I wasn't expecting one. I thought the line would stay the same or go up a hook or so, but it's dropped. Either way, looking like a fun game to watch.

Hunt,
I'm straight but I could dig having a beer with Buddy Cole.

Good stuff

 

[RBD]

Thanks, B.A.R

Record (college): 1-0
Last week:
"If you're going to lay a lot of points, Lane's the man you want to do it with.
He knows why college teams put an FCS sacrificial lamb at the start of their schedule.
And he has no problem slaughtering them."

Final score? 76-0.
Goodnight, Clarice.
(Most (?) won't get that reference, but there it is anyway.)

NEXT!

This week I'm buying N. Ill/N. Dame Over.
This play is from one of the three formulas I use to 'cap totals and it says this game stays Under
The play was 0-2 last week, 12-15 LY (Last Year.)
The combined two year record (for the play, NOT my record of plays bought and/or recommended) is now 12-17, a 58% Fade.
Anything I chart that is 58% or > is a buy for me.

Aside from my numbers, gut feel tells me it's going to be a ND blowout and they'll get me almost all of what I need.
They avg'd 43 PPG at home LY and I see them putting up a similar number in this game.

The opening 46 is down to 44' so I'll monitor my screens and wait to buy it.
Worse case likely 44', and I'm good with that number for this spot.

Last week the Irish only scored 23 vs Tex A&M in a 23-13 game.
The Huskies beat up on FCS opponent W. Ill, 54-15.
Not a lot to go on, not really relevant, but . . . there's this:
The Huskies are competitive in the MAC (who doesn't love early weekday Maction??!!) but there's a reason they don't often venture out of their conference to play a top 25 team:
2019 lost to #13 Utah 17-35
2021 lost to #25 Michigan 10-63
2022 lost to #8 Kentucky 23-31

Three games in the last five years.
Three losses.
And all of them saw more points than I need in this one.
See a pattern for the Huskies? I do - stay in your lane, puppies. Or get spanked.

I don't like taking an Ov in a game where the scoring may be one-sided (I'll be happy if the Huskies score in the 10-13 range) but my play says Fade the Un so I'm sticking with my numbers and a little "gut feel" mixed in.

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 1-1

Today's play:

Wash -1'

Huskies backers suffered through a difficult game to watch against a mediocre Rutger's team last week but it was a game that showed the importance of “When to Buy."

Buyers who correctly read the line move and were savvy enough to buy the Huskies on Wednesday got a Push instead of a loss. Between Wednesday and Friday, the line steadily moved in favor of the Huskies.
By game time, some houses had Wash -1.

They lost by three points, 18-21.

The Huskies played poorly. Very.

Too many penalties.

Bad clock management in the final two minutes.

A turnover on downs when going for it on 4th and goal.

A SECOND turnover on downs when going for it on 4th and goal in the red zone, instead of kicking the field goal.

Not one, not two, but THREE missed field goals (which, I guess, explains why they kept going for it on 4th and goal.

Washington out gained Rutgers 521 yards to just 299.

And yet, somehow managed to lose.

It was a display of total incompetence.

Rutgers played the better game, but Washington is the better team.

So the question going into tonight's game - was last week's performance a one-off, just a bad night, or an accurate picture of the Huskies capability?

I'm betting it was a one-off.
I'm betting that they're going to come out eager to prove that.

Michigan has a slight edge in the running game (204 YPG to 173), but Washington has a big edge in the passing game (296 YPG to 122.)
And when (if?) the Huskies pull ahead the Wolverines are going to have to abandon the run game and lean on the the passing game where Washington has another huge advantage, surrendering just 128 per game, compared to Michigan's 246.

These two are pretty even on a lot of stats. The difference to me is going to be home field advantage and a bounce back performance from a pissed off Washington team.

There's still a couple houses at -1 out there but the common number found at most books right now is -1'.

So that's what I'll use.

Update: the game just kicked off, forgot to mention something (was in a hurry to get this posted asap in case anyone was looking for opinions on the game.) One other factor - paybacks for last year?

Wash -1'

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Good work amigo. Huskies are definitely better than their record suggests imo