Dollaz
Pretty much a regular
Personally, tonight is the night that I've circled for the entire bowl season; 4 evenly matched teams squaring off on a Friday night, doesn't get better than that. As I've mentioned before, I am big into advanced statistics and sbnation does a great job, imo. (my rankings are based on F+/-)
Clemson vs. Ohio State:
Clemsons (15th ranked) biggest win was over 20th ranked UGA (when they were healthy); and has losses to the number 1 and number 14th ranked teams. Ohio State (5) lost to the number 9 team and beat 28 (Iowa), 32 (Michigan), 10 (Wisky)
Offensively, Clemson was ranked 17th and they are facing the 35th ranked defense. Based on adjusted line rank, Clemson has a huge advantage (22nd to 90th). Clearly, the Ohio State defensive line is bad, but some of that is covered up with the play of Ryan Shazier (22.5 tackles for loss). Surprisingly, Clemson should have the advantage running the ball, but the question for me is how the Clemson pass offense will do. Clemson gave up almost 3 sacks per game, which is close to what Ohio States defense got. Problem is even in passing downs, Clemson has a big advantage over tOSU. (20th ranked offense vs. 29th ranked defense) Now, adding injuries to the Ohio State defense, we should see some points scored by Clemson.
Offensively, tOSU was ranked number 2 and they are facing the number 15 ranked defense. Simply put, tOSU has either the best or 2nd best run game in the nation. They do it in a variety of ways as they can use speed, power, QB runs....wherever they find an advantage. Going back, the run defense of Clemson fared well against FSU, but did not contain Georgia. Clemson's defense is a big play defense as they get you with stops in the backfield and sacks. tOSU simply cannot get behind in this game or it could get ugly for them. They aren't a terrible passing team, but the success is largely correlated to the running game. They also aren't very good at protecting the QB, which is scary facing the number 5 ranked team in terms of adjusted sack rate. On passing downs, when they can pin their ears back, Clemsons sack rate is number 3 in the country.
Where the biggest advantage on the field may be? Special teams. tOSU was ranked number 7 in average starting position, while Clemson was ranked 56. No big advantage in fg effeciency, but tOSU has a huge advantage is KO return, Punt Return, and Kickoffs. tOSU could have a big advantage in hidden yards.
Interesting stats to consider:
tOSU- averaged 16.9 points in the first quarter this year and Clemson averaged 4.2 points given up. On average tOSU had a 12 point advantage after the first quarter.
My Prediction:
Obviously, this isn't rocket science from me, but this game comes down to how tOSU's rushing offense fares against Clemson. If they can be successful and there is every reason to believe they can, they can keep Clemson off balance and avoid obvious passing situations. They average 7.1 yards per rush on the season and the advanced statistics back them up in terms of rushing success. If I'm backing Clemson, I'm concerned tOSU comes out on fire, pissed off over their loss to Michigan State and they continue their run of destroying teams in the first quarter. They get up a td or 2 in the 1Q and can continue to just run the ball and destroy the will of the Clemson defense, it's going to be a long day for Clemson. Furthermore, if tOSU is able to make some plays on special teams, another big advantage they have, then it could be game over for Clemson.
My biggest concern though is the injuries to an already below average tOSU defense. To be honest, there are enough question marks that I probably wouldnt bet this game if it was a regular season matchup, but come on, what else would I do on a Friday night with two, top-15 teams? I want to back Clemson, I really do, but the run game and special teams scare the shit out of me.
This is a lot of points, my gut says under; my head says over. I think tOSU moves up and down the field and scores some points. I think special teams will give them the ball in favorable spots and they can utiltize the nations best run game. Clemson, OTOH will be playing catch up.
Over 70.5
1Q tOSU -0.5/over 14.5 parlay +334
Clemson vs. Ohio State:
Clemsons (15th ranked) biggest win was over 20th ranked UGA (when they were healthy); and has losses to the number 1 and number 14th ranked teams. Ohio State (5) lost to the number 9 team and beat 28 (Iowa), 32 (Michigan), 10 (Wisky)
Offensively, Clemson was ranked 17th and they are facing the 35th ranked defense. Based on adjusted line rank, Clemson has a huge advantage (22nd to 90th). Clearly, the Ohio State defensive line is bad, but some of that is covered up with the play of Ryan Shazier (22.5 tackles for loss). Surprisingly, Clemson should have the advantage running the ball, but the question for me is how the Clemson pass offense will do. Clemson gave up almost 3 sacks per game, which is close to what Ohio States defense got. Problem is even in passing downs, Clemson has a big advantage over tOSU. (20th ranked offense vs. 29th ranked defense) Now, adding injuries to the Ohio State defense, we should see some points scored by Clemson.
Offensively, tOSU was ranked number 2 and they are facing the number 15 ranked defense. Simply put, tOSU has either the best or 2nd best run game in the nation. They do it in a variety of ways as they can use speed, power, QB runs....wherever they find an advantage. Going back, the run defense of Clemson fared well against FSU, but did not contain Georgia. Clemson's defense is a big play defense as they get you with stops in the backfield and sacks. tOSU simply cannot get behind in this game or it could get ugly for them. They aren't a terrible passing team, but the success is largely correlated to the running game. They also aren't very good at protecting the QB, which is scary facing the number 5 ranked team in terms of adjusted sack rate. On passing downs, when they can pin their ears back, Clemsons sack rate is number 3 in the country.
Where the biggest advantage on the field may be? Special teams. tOSU was ranked number 7 in average starting position, while Clemson was ranked 56. No big advantage in fg effeciency, but tOSU has a huge advantage is KO return, Punt Return, and Kickoffs. tOSU could have a big advantage in hidden yards.
Interesting stats to consider:
tOSU- averaged 16.9 points in the first quarter this year and Clemson averaged 4.2 points given up. On average tOSU had a 12 point advantage after the first quarter.
My Prediction:
Obviously, this isn't rocket science from me, but this game comes down to how tOSU's rushing offense fares against Clemson. If they can be successful and there is every reason to believe they can, they can keep Clemson off balance and avoid obvious passing situations. They average 7.1 yards per rush on the season and the advanced statistics back them up in terms of rushing success. If I'm backing Clemson, I'm concerned tOSU comes out on fire, pissed off over their loss to Michigan State and they continue their run of destroying teams in the first quarter. They get up a td or 2 in the 1Q and can continue to just run the ball and destroy the will of the Clemson defense, it's going to be a long day for Clemson. Furthermore, if tOSU is able to make some plays on special teams, another big advantage they have, then it could be game over for Clemson.
My biggest concern though is the injuries to an already below average tOSU defense. To be honest, there are enough question marks that I probably wouldnt bet this game if it was a regular season matchup, but come on, what else would I do on a Friday night with two, top-15 teams? I want to back Clemson, I really do, but the run game and special teams scare the shit out of me.
This is a lot of points, my gut says under; my head says over. I think tOSU moves up and down the field and scores some points. I think special teams will give them the ball in favorable spots and they can utiltize the nations best run game. Clemson, OTOH will be playing catch up.
Over 70.5
1Q tOSU -0.5/over 14.5 parlay +334
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