The Fade List

Grovehard

Pretty much a regular
No, this isn't a thread about eggman (just fucking with you, egg). I think we did this last year or maybe the year before, and as I recall, we came up with some winners...well, losers actually. Which teams are you looking to fade this year? Who is going to be overvalued and overrated? Which teams will you lay the number against every time? Vandy was very good to me last year as the books were slow to adjust to their ineptitude.
 
Missouri will be overvalued
Oregon will be overvalued
Oklahoma will be overvalued
Mississippi State will be overvalued
Duke will be grotesquely overvalued
Memphis will be overvalued
Ga Southern will be overvalued
NIU will be overvalued
Syracuse will be overvalued
Maryland will be overvalued
UTEP will be overvalued


did i miss a team?
 
Army. Lost almost 3000 yards from the running game with 4 of the top 5 rushers gone including 2 year starter QB Santiago and 5 of the starting front 7 on defense including the entire line. With 2 FCS schools on the schedule I couldn't take under 3.5 wins on the season total but I will blindly fade them every opponent that's D-1 ...went 5-7 ATS overall last year and 4-8 ATS the two previous seasons to that.
 
I hate to say it but it may be profitable to bet against Clemson this year. Tons of hype for a team that lost loads off the best defense in college football and the majority of the OL. Loaded at the skill positions and should still be a top 30ish defense but I really don't get the accolades.

I will definitely be against in Week 2 against Appy St and most likely against on Thursday at Louisville. Also likely to be against at Miami later in the year.
 
This is the answer. Seriously, I'm afraid that both MS schools are overrated.

I think a lot of SEC schools will be overvalued. Especially Miss St, Arky, Tennessee, Alabama, and Auburn. Think aTm may be a touch underrated. Florida and UK may be underrated, haven't looked at lines much though.
 
I think a lot of SEC schools will be overvalued. Especially Miss St, Arky, Tennessee, Alabama, and Auburn. Think aTm may be a touch underrated. Florida and UK may be underrated, haven't looked at lines much though.

Also think LSU is going to be underrated.
 
I know what was overvalued last year which could happen again are the Overs in the Mid American Conference especially the week night games. What once was a high flying no defense league, is now a dink and dunk defensive league.
 
I know what was overvalued last year which could happen again are the Overs in the Mid American Conference especially the week night games. What once was a high flying no defense league, is now a dink and dunk defensive league.


Excellent point Wise
 
I know what was overvalued last year which could happen again are the Overs in the Mid American Conference especially the week night games. What once was a high flying no defense league, is now a dink and dunk defensive league.


Speaking veeeery generally here, the east division of the MAC has been geared more towards defense in recent seasons, while the west division has geared more towards offense.
 
Vols FOR SURE. Schedule is way to tough. They will win 7 tops and that will be pushing it.
BG in the opener is not gonna be easy. I am on Total wins Under 8 -105 and feel VERY strongly about this bet.
Only wins I see that should be locks are: UK, Vandy, WCar, NTexas
Toss ups: BG, Cocks, Mizzu, Fla (gotta win 3 of 4 here, Don't see it)
Loses: Jorga, Bama, Okla, Ark ( gotta win all 4 up top, 3 of the above and 1 here)

i I just don't see 8 wins.
 
Vols FOR SURE. Schedule is way to tough. They will win 7 tops and that will be pushing it.
BG in the opener is not gonna be easy. I am on Total wins Under 8 -105 and feel VERY strongly about this bet.
Only wins I see that should be locks are: UK, Vandy, WCar, NTexas
Toss ups: BG, Cocks, Mizzu, Fla (gotta win 3 of 4 here, Don't see it)
Loses: Jorga, Bama, Okla, Ark ( gotta win all 4 up top, 3 of the above and 1 here)

i I just don't see 8 wins.


You're going to be betting against the Vols a lot this year

They are 21 point favorites against BGSU. They are going to be somewhere +3 to -3 against Oklahoma. They will likely be small favorites against Arkansas at home and +3 to -3 against UGA as well. They would be favored by more than a TD against South Carolina if the game were today.

They will be favored by far less in Lexington than they will in a virtual home game against Bowling Green so if you truly consider BGSU a toss-up then you have to consider KY one too regardless of the history in that game.

I'm not on them in any capacity yet and not sure when the first time I'll find myself on or against them will be but I do predict you'll be against them a lot this year
 
Grove...just got done watching a replay of your boys beating Bama

This sport just has something about it that no other American sports compare to, IMO. I know others will disagree but I can't wait til they snap the damn ball in 6 weeks
 
Grove...just got done watching a replay of your boys beating Bama

This sport just has something about it that no other American sports compare to, IMO. I know others will disagree but I can't wait til they snap the damn ball in 6 weeks


Emotion for the love of the game, love of your school, love of your program, love of your teammates, love of your state .... there is something pure about it and there isn't much left that has that feel and as soon as they start legally paying these kids it will be ruined here too. Enjoy it while it lasts. As the guy on the radio says all the time .. It's God's sport. History and tradition matter .. the rivalries ... the abundance of different styles of play ... the turnover year in and year out making the next year almost a completely new endeavor. ... It cannot be beaten.
 
Anybody see an early line on East Carolina at Florida? 2nd week of season. Pirates could (will) fall off as well in wins for the season, but I don't know what their # is. Breaking in a new QB, lost their best WR (arguably best in college overall) and Offensive Coordinator).
 
Thanks for making me throw up in my mouth CG


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<tbody>[TR="class: team-color-strip"]
[TH="align: left"][/TH]
[TH="align: left"]
ECU[/TH]
[TH="align: left"]
FLA[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]1st Downs[/TD]
[TD]32[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]3rd down efficiency
[/TD]
[TD]8-20[/TD]
[TD]8-17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]4th down efficiency
[/TD]
[TD]0-2[/TD]
[TD]0-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Total Yards[/TD]
[TD]536[/TD]
[TD]339[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Passing[/TD]
[TD]427[/TD]
[TD]171[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Comp-Att
[/TD]
[TD]34-68[/TD]
[TD]13-28[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per pass
[/TD]
[TD]6.3[/TD]
[TD]6.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Rushing[/TD]
[TD]109[/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Rushing Attempts
[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]43[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Yards per rush
[/TD]
[TD]3.3[/TD]
[TD]3.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Penalties[/TD]
[TD]5-35[/TD]
[TD]6-40[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Turnovers[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Fumbles lost
[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: even"]
[TD="align: left"]Interceptions thrown
[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: bi, align: left"]Possession[/TD]
[TD]32:07[/TD]
[TD]27:22[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Grove...just got done watching a replay of your boys beating Bama

This sport just has something about it that no other American sports compare to, IMO. I know others will disagree but I can't wait til they snap the damn ball in 6 weeks

I don't know if I will ever experience a better football Saturday than that one. Perfect weather in Oxford, Gameday in town, beating Bama after getting fucked on the facemask call, Katie Perry going ham on the Square afterward, etc. Just a perfect day. I'm sure others have similar feelings about certain Saturdays with your teams. That's what makes the game so incredible.
 
I agree on Tennessee. Butch has proven that he can recruit, though UT's boosters have bought back in so I think many of us could recruit in that environment, but he hasn't proven to be a great gameday coach yet. I'm not saying that he isn't a good coach. I just want to see it before I buy stock in the Vols. Fortunately for him the East is bad again.
 
The extra practices seemed to matter for them last year. They looked really good in the bowl. Team and program have momentum. I think they still might be overrated because they are en vogue right now but they look to have a pretty good squad on paper.

Grove, I am super high on ole miss right now so wondering what you see as the problem with their squad. The skill positions look good, assuming the QB isn't horrible and the defense just looks flat out nasty. Do you have oline concerns? Team looks loaded to me.
 
Iowa quit. Had no interest after blowing a huge lead at home to Nebraska. Some internal issues on that team as well.
 
The extra practices seemed to matter for them last year. They looked really good in the bowl. Team and program have momentum. I think they still might be overrated because they are en vogue right now but they look to have a pretty good squad on paper.

Grove, I am super high on ole miss right now so wondering what you see as the problem with their squad. The skill positions look good, assuming the QB isn't horrible and the defense just looks flat out nasty. Do you have oline concerns? Team looks loaded to me.

Let me preface this by saying that Ole Miss should have a good team, but "good" teams have a tough time in the SEC West. I have several concerns: some holes on the depth chart, Freeze throttling the offense down again, and the schedule.

First and foremost, QB is a question mark. Wallace was far from a model of consistency, but he was battle tested. He had played in hostile environments and in huge games. Kelly and Buchanan are both talented guys, but experience is invaluable. Depending on first year starters at Tuscaloosa, Gainesville, Auburn, and Starkville isn't typically a recipe for success.

Having said that, the QB will have a stable of WRs at his disposal. I think Ole Miss' group is one of the best 3 in the country. However, and this brings me to my next concern, even if the QB is great and the WRs are what I think they are, I worry that Freeze will refuse to go tempo as he did last year because he didn't want to gas the Ole Miss D. Ironically, Ole Miss' success against Bama probably cost them the LSU game. Ole Miss matched Bama's physicality, and Freeze didn't use the tempo game very much. At LSU, he got in to a physical, grind it out game with a team that was much more suited to play that way. I completely understand not wanting to expose your D with quick 3 and outs, but if there was ever an Ole Miss D that could've handled a few more possessions a game it was last year's. This year's D should be equally as salty. In fact, I think they will be better. It won't matter though if Freeze allows other teams to dictate the style of play.

Last, the schedule is tough. The West is rugged again, and Ole Miss doesn't get a break until Week 10. I'm concerned about the physical toll of 10 weeks of football. Freeze has done an incredible job. He should've won Coach of the Year after bowling in his first year after inheriting Nutt's dumpster fire, but Ole Miss still doesn't have Bama, Auburn, and maybe even LSU's depth at certain positions. The OL has to be better this year. There's some potential there, but there are only about 7 guys that are ready to play SEC football today. LB is scary thin. One injury there, and Freeze will likely be looking to former walk ons and true freshmen.

Again, they're capable of winning every game on the schedule, but that would take an incredible amount of luck and good health. I'm guessing 9-3.
 
Let me preface this by saying that Ole Miss should have a good team, but "good" teams have a tough time in the SEC West. I have several concerns: some holes on the depth chart, Freeze throttling the offense down again, and the schedule.

First and foremost, QB is a question mark. Wallace was far from a model of consistency, but he was battle tested. He had played in hostile environments and in huge games. Kelly and Buchanan are both talented guys, but experience is invaluable. Depending on first year starters at Tuscaloosa, Gainesville, Auburn, and Starkville isn't typically a recipe for success.

Having said that, the QB will have a stable of WRs at his disposal. I think Ole Miss' group is one of the best 3 in the country. However, and this brings me to my next concern, even if the QB is great and the WRs are what I think they are, I worry that Freeze will refuse to go tempo as he did last year because he didn't want to gas the Ole Miss D. Ironically, Ole Miss' success against Bama probably cost them the LSU game. Ole Miss matched Bama's physicality, and Freeze didn't use the tempo game very much. At LSU, he got in to a physical, grind it out game with a team that was much more suited to play that way. I completely understand not wanting to expose your D with quick 3 and outs, but if there was ever an Ole Miss D that could've handled a few more possessions a game it was last year's. This year's D should be equally as salty. In fact, I think they will be better. It won't matter though if Freeze allows other teams to dictate the style of play.

Last, the schedule is tough. The West is rugged again, and Ole Miss doesn't get a break until Week 10. I'm concerned about the physical toll of 10 weeks of football. Freeze has done an incredible job. He should've won Coach of the Year after bowling in his first year after inheriting Nutt's dumpster fire, but Ole Miss still doesn't have Bama, Auburn, and maybe even LSU's depth at certain positions. The OL has to be better this year. There's some potential there, but there are only about 7 guys that are ready to play SEC football today. LB is scary thin. One injury there, and Freeze will likely be looking to former walk ons and true freshmen.

Again, they're capable of winning every game on the schedule, but that would take an incredible amount of luck and good health. I'm guessing 9-3.


It's interesting that we see the team similarly (save Wallace, who I thought held the team back with incredibly bad play) but I think they will hold value and you think they will not. That isn't to say that I am expecting a ton from the QB position other than not messing things up but this team was as good as anyone before the injury bug hit with an outright bum at qb.
 
The extra practices seemed to matter for them last year. They looked really good in the bowl. Team and program have momentum. I think they still might be overrated because they are en vogue right now but they look to have a pretty good squad on paper.

Grove, I am super high on ole miss right now so wondering what you see as the problem with their squad. The skill positions look good, assuming the QB isn't horrible and the defense just looks flat out nasty. Do you have oline concerns? Team looks loaded to me.

Agree with this....and as cappers we feel they are overrated and tv analysts love 'em.

They have been recruiting very very well......they WILL be good soon...how soon? not sure.....
 
Let me preface this by saying that Ole Miss should have a good team, but "good" teams have a tough time in the SEC West. I have several concerns: some holes on the depth chart, Freeze throttling the offense down again, and the schedule.

First and foremost, QB is a question mark. Wallace was far from a model of consistency, but he was battle tested. He had played in hostile environments and in huge games. Kelly and Buchanan are both talented guys, but experience is invaluable. Depending on first year starters at Tuscaloosa, Gainesville, Auburn, and Starkville isn't typically a recipe for success.

Having said that, the QB will have a stable of WRs at his disposal. I think Ole Miss' group is one of the best 3 in the country. However, and this brings me to my next concern, even if the QB is great and the WRs are what I think they are, I worry that Freeze will refuse to go tempo as he did last year because he didn't want to gas the Ole Miss D. Ironically, Ole Miss' success against Bama probably cost them the LSU game. Ole Miss matched Bama's physicality, and Freeze didn't use the tempo game very much. At LSU, he got in to a physical, grind it out game with a team that was much more suited to play that way. I completely understand not wanting to expose your D with quick 3 and outs, but if there was ever an Ole Miss D that could've handled a few more possessions a game it was last year's. This year's D should be equally as salty. In fact, I think they will be better. It won't matter though if Freeze allows other teams to dictate the style of play.

Last, the schedule is tough. The West is rugged again, and Ole Miss doesn't get a break until Week 10. I'm concerned about the physical toll of 10 weeks of football. Freeze has done an incredible job. He should've won Coach of the Year after bowling in his first year after inheriting Nutt's dumpster fire, but Ole Miss still doesn't have Bama, Auburn, and maybe even LSU's depth at certain positions. The OL has to be better this year. There's some potential there, but there are only about 7 guys that are ready to play SEC football today. LB is scary thin. One injury there, and Freeze will likely be looking to former walk ons and true freshmen.

Again, they're capable of winning every game on the schedule, but that would take an incredible amount of luck and good health. I'm guessing 9-3.

I would say definitely ;)


In all seriousness, this would be the year....this and last year because the recruiting has kind of leveled back to Earth(still wayyy better than in year's past don't get me wrong, but not top 5 type).

Freeze can recruit, we know that. He needs to brush up on gameday coaching.....and this comes from a guy watching a bonehead on Staurdays....
 
It's interesting that we see the team similarly (save Wallace, who I thought held the team back with incredibly bad play) but I think they will hold value and you think they will not. That isn't to say that I am expecting a ton from the QB position other than not messing things up but this team was as good as anyone before the injury bug hit with an outright bum at qb.


Wallace was kind of a goof, but unless you are Cardale Jones.....starting young QBs in the SEC has been trouble for many teams


see Brandon Harris last year. And that is WITH Lenny Fournette and NFL WRs......kids get shook in these big stadiums
 
Wallace had a YPA of 8.4, completed over 60 percent and had a 22/14 ratio...that's hardly abysmal, but other than YPA, can certainly be improved upon. That was with an OL that was actually pretty weak.

Not sure we'll see an improvement over that this year at QB despite a better OL. Front 7 should be a beast but losing 2 AA in the secondary clearly has that unit weaker and they'll need a pass rush to protect it.

I agree that 9-3 sounds rights though I think 8-4 is more likely than 10-2 in the rugged West.
 
Maybe Harris just sucks.
a couple things:

typically you wouldnt start a true freshman OTR at the number 5 ranked team right off a national championship appearance....most coaches wouldn't

secondly I am not so sure he sucks...does LSU recruit the wrong QBs for their offense? yes. maybe he gets better this year running a pro style offense for the number 7 dual threat kid nationally....who knows?


i know this....AJ has hit his ceiling....Harris has yet to get in the room


guess we see this year
 
Wallace put up decent numbers, but it seemed he always made some WTF mistakes, especially in big games. Alabama was the beneficiary of that for a few years. Until he turned into Joe Montana in the 4th quarter last season.
 
Missouri will be overvalued
Oregon will be overvalued
Oklahoma will be overvalued
Mississippi State will be overvalued
Duke will be grotesquely overvalued
Memphis will be overvalued
Ga Southern will be overvalued
NIU will be overvalued
Syracuse will be overvalued
Maryland will be overvalued
UTEP will be overvalued


did i miss a team?


Ohio St
 

I think that's true in the sense that every #1 team is overvalued. Ohio St is the clear #1 team heading into the season, but it's not unreasonable to think that they won't repeat or that they won't cover 5 TD spreads every week
 
I think that's true in the sense that every #1 team is overvalued. Ohio St is the clear #1 team heading into the season, but it's not unreasonable to think that they won't repeat or that they won't cover 5 TD spreads every week

I see ya playboy:tiphat:
 
I think that's true in the sense that every #1 team is overvalued. Ohio St is the clear #1 team heading into the season, but it's not unreasonable to think that they won't repeat or that they won't cover 5 TD spreads every week


Yeah their ATS could very well be 4-8 while going undefeated. Just going to hard to be emotionally ready for everyone given the fact that they are defending national champions, have a huge target on their back and don't have a schedule that will challenge them more than twice this year
 
I think that's true in the sense that every #1 team is overvalued. Ohio St is the clear #1 team heading into the season, but it's not unreasonable to think that they won't repeat or that they won't cover 5 TD spreads every week


GL with that. Let me know when your roll is bust.
 
quote_icon.png
Originally Posted by clowncar I can throw wr screens too.


who this for?

Pretty sure that would be me in regard to my Wallace completed 60% of his passes statement.

And CC...no you can't.
 
quote_icon.png
Originally Posted by clowncar I can throw wr screens too.




Pretty sure that would be me in regard to my Wallace completed 60% of his passes statement.

And CC...no you can't.
Agree especially on clown completing passes, no chance
 
on another note cub, is Corn good this year? I haven't looked at the BiG..

No clue, need a RB, need Armstrong to play to his capabilities, need starting front 7 to stay healthy. Their WR and secondary should be quite good. OL should be pretty decent if the scheme change doesn't bother them.
 
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