The Extra Point

nbafan88

nbafan88

Pretty much a regular
Extra-point attempts have been moved from the two- to 15-yard line, though two-point conversions will continue to take place from the two-yard line.

That means PATs will now be 33 yards instead of 19. It's a drastic change, not one everyone was necessarily asking for. There will now be big games decided by missed extra points. The league also implemented another rule change, awarding two points for botched PATs or two-point conversions that are returned for a score by the defense. That rule was already employed by the NCAA.



quite a significant change...
 
so many bad beats are going happen on totals and spreads with shitty kickers..

Tebow looks like a brilliant pickup now
 
Let's get the stats on FGs from 30-35 yds and see how much of a change we can expect to see. There will be some drop off, for sure, since XPs were hit at a 99+% clip, but I'm curious to see how many 30-35 yd FGs have been missed. Before I try to find the stats, I'm gonna guess that 95% of FGs from that distance are hit.
 
Pretty sure I saw 90% from 30-39 yards

So add in the fact that it's 33 yards and always from the center and I agree Lareux, it's still gonna be pretty damn high
 
30-35 yard FG accuracy in 2013 and 2014 by location: Left Hash 91.6%, Center 97.6%, Right Hash 93.8%

The XP will be in the center of the field, so it looks like we will see 2 more XP's missed out of 100 due to this change.


 
I don't know how it wouldn't be enticing to go for 2 every time, Chip's gotta love this
 
kjohnson109 said:
I don't know how it wouldn't be enticing to go for 2 every time, Chip's gotta love this
Click to expand...

Yep, and maybe that's where we see a more drastic change here. Although, with those percentages, it isn't going to be that much more enticing to go for 2 now then it was before.
 
nbafan88 said:
Extra-point attempts have been moved from the two- to 15-yard line, though two-point conversions will continue to take place from the two-yard line.

That means PATs will now be 33 yards instead of 19. It's a drastic change, not one everyone was necessarily asking for. There will now be big games decided by missed extra points. The league also implemented another rule change, awarding two points for botched PATs or two-point conversions that are returned for a score by the defense. That rule was already employed by the NCAA.



quite a significant change...
Click to expand...

Not that it's a meaningful difference, but they will be 32 yd extra points, not 33. It's a 13 yd difference (2 yd line to 15 yd line), and they used to be 19 yds.
 
Lareux said:
30-35 yard FG accuracy in 2013 and 2014 by location: Left Hash 91.6%, Center 97.6%, Right Hash 93.8%

The XP will be in the center of the field, so it looks like we will see 2 more XP's missed out of 100 due to this change.


Click to expand...

Where did you get this info?

Kind of like with straight putts, I've always had a theory that the further the distance the harder it is to make a FG from straight on center. Wanted to see if there's evidence to support it.
 
Yes, in the long run this move doesn't matter.

But when we lose our wagers by the hook because of missed a XP... it will be hard to forget...

The betting impact of this change will have a bigger impact than the football impact
 
Gandolf said:
Where did you get this info?

Kind of like with straight putts, I've always had a theory that the further the distance the harder it is to make a FG from straight on center. Wanted to see if there's evidence to support it.
Click to expand...

It was in a tweet as well as an article or two about the XP moving.

I'd say there isn't too much evidence to support your theory, at least based on those percentages from 30-35 yards. I'm pretty sure the center of the field FGs are hit at a higher percentage at all distances.
 
I like it. Adds interest. Fuck handicapping, fuck a thing that happens 99.9% of the time. Why bother?
 
And who put the fucking thing in to begin with? Sounds like a rule from gramma. Don't forget your extra point!
 
tipyerbartender said:
I like it. Adds interest. Fuck handicapping, fuck a thing that happens 99.9% of the time. Why bother?
Click to expand...

I saw a pretty interesting comparison made to the snap. A snap is "converted" at just as high of a percentage as the XP was, why not just eliminate the snap and let the QB start with the ball in his hands?
 
tipyerbartender said:
Adds strategy. Adds nothing that's bad.
Click to expand...

I think what we'll see is that it isn't going to add much strategy at all. The kick from 32 yards is hit at nearly 98%. What's to decide really that wasn't in the decision before? The XP is still going to be essentially automatic...anyone going for 2 more now should have really just been doing it all along. We're talking 2 more XP's missed every 100 kicks Tip.
 
Lareux said:
I think what we'll see is that it isn't going to add much strategy at all. The kick from 32 yards is hit at nearly 98%. What's to decide really that wasn't in the decision before? The XP is still going to be essentially automatic...anyone going for 2 more now should have really just been doing it all along. We're talking 2 more XP's missed every 100 kicks Tip.
Click to expand...

Then move it back another 10.
 
Almost everyone on the team could make an extra point. It's almost impossible to miss. Have you ever tried one? I was like 8 out of 10. Never kicked anything but a grounder.
 
tipyerbartender said:
Almost everyone on the team could make an extra point. It's almost impossible to miss. Have you ever tried one? I was like 8 out of 10. Never kicked anything but a grounder.
Click to expand...

Everyone on the team could hand the ball between their legs to the QB as well. Have you ever tried it? You are probably at 100% in your lifetime.

:tiphat:
 
tipyerbartender said:
Almost everyone on the team could make an extra point. It's almost impossible to miss. Have you ever tried one? I was like 8 out of 10. Never kicked anything but a grounder.
Click to expand...

And your suggestion should be have the TD scorer kick the XP. That would add some excitement and may actually spur a decision of whether or not to go for 2.
 
Lareux said:
Everyone on the team could hand the ball between their legs to the QB as well. Have you ever tried it? You are probably at 100% in your lifetime.

:tiphat:
Click to expand...

I think the every-time 35-yard-FG kicker population is about to be appreciated.
 
Lareux said:
And your suggestion should be have the TD scorer kick the XP. That would add some excitement and may actually spur a decision of whether or not to go for 2.
Click to expand...

I have always loved that idea. Kickers kick off, TD players kick extra points. Why is that more ludicrous than just eliminating extra points?
 
Lareux said:
So pretty much every NFL kicker, just like it was when it was at the 2?
Click to expand...

You haven't watched much Browns. May be fudging the yardage, but they haven't cut a million kickers since Dawson for pleasure.
 
tipyerbartender said:
I have always loved that idea. Kickers kick off, TD players kick extra points. Why is that more ludicrous than just eliminating extra points?
Click to expand...

I'm not sure why it's more ludicrous than eliminating XPs. I think it'd be fun to watch. The babies who need that excitement in their XP's can get it, and football can keep the XP. Sounds like a win/win.
 
tipyerbartender said:
You haven't watched much Browns. May be fudging the yardage, but they haven't cut a million kickers since Dawson for pleasure.
Click to expand...

If that's the case, it may be the Browns kickers only missing those FG's from 30-35 yards in the center of the field. So now, outside of the Browns, we'll see the same percentage of XP's hit from the 22 as we did from the 9. Makes sense to me.
 
tipyerbartender said:
Then move it back another 10.
Click to expand...

Forgot to bring this up about other 'solutions' for the XP....they could have, in addition to moving the kick back 12 yards, moved the 2pt conversion from the 2 yd line to the 1 yd line. Someone had brought it up before, as did the Eagles in the discussions on the XP rule change, but I was reminded of it when reading this article from fivethirtyeight.com

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/dear-nfl-kickers-will-not-be-stopped/

I think we've had a few links from that site on here recently, but it's a great site for statistics, advanced stats, etc...it's Nate Silver's site, and they have more than just sports on there...pretty cool site.

The writer also brought this up about teams possibly going for 2 more now, after the rule change, than they have...

If there is a big shift in favor of going for two, I think it’s more likely to be a result of coaches deciding the new rule gives them cover for it, rather than a large and fundamental shift in the math. And there’s precedent for this: The all-time high for successful 2-point attempts made was 59, set in 1994 – the year the play was first introduced.
 
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