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The End of the Regular Season...Week 17

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Well made alot of poor decisions in week 16 and a couple bad plays I guess on Monday. Actually I take that back cause though DAL sucked they were exposed more then anything else so going in it wasnt such a bad play. The Miami -NYJ game well lets just say I fucked up cause I could have hedged ingame. However how do you start your 3rd string QB and play for a tie? If anyone can explain why at home with 4th and 1/2 a yard you kick a FG...?? Especially with Brown and Morris versus a bad run defense? That is probably the dumbest coaching decision I have seen all season. I dont think anyone wants to cite one play but seriously how does your coach lose a game for you...it should be all or nothing at that point..

Onto the Saturday Nite game....

Personally I cant think of a better spot for an over. You have a growing Wash offense and fading defense versus a NYG offense which hit rockbottom last week and a defense that has continually allowed 23 ++ ppg recently. Did you see the Skins versus STL no clue...and now SPrings is OUT for good...Betts and Campbell continue to improve every week. The NYG defense has allowed a ton of points recently with only Carolina less then 23 but that had Weinke starting his 1st game and he had 400 yards passing...past 2 weeks 30 + allowed. You have a new OC in NY in Gilbride. Eli's his rated game of 2006 was vs WSH 102.6 and generally the past 2 years Eli has been better away probably cause NY is a pressure cooker. Obviously teh game means a tremendous amount still . So waiting on Shockey's status buthave a strong lean on OVER 42....
 
Team Totals -

These stand way out to me in this order of strength.

1) Over 21 -103 Houston
2) Over 24 -110 Denver
3) Over 23 -104 StLouis
 
Like that over in Washington, what do you think about the side..I think Washington gets it done at home, I think their defense is a little stronger than New York's, which has basically given up...
 
finger11 said:
manning last year in DC played like garbage, i think we scored 13 pts, the TD being a pick 6
Click to expand...

They Giants played like garbage losing 35-20. However last year this series had alot of emotion since NY won the 1st meeting 36-0 and embarrassed Wash the days after Mara passed. So the second meeting Wash had some incentive. Wli had 244 and Tike 16c 80 yards....but there was pick 6involved...
 
Troutman said:
Like that over in Washington, what do you think about the side..I think Washington gets it done at home, I think their defense is a little stronger than New York's, which has basically given up...
Click to expand...

My feeling with WASH is they dont know how to win they have played much better since Campbell became QB. However they should have defeated both Philly and STL but failed. There defense without Springs and Washington will be poor. Can NY wake up and take advantage? Not sure but I think NY has not quit. I think they bottomed out last week . Shockey seems doubtful and his article in the POST today claims no one has given up. Naturally thats easy to say and hard to believe from our standpoint.

So we have a wash team who doesnt know how to win and a NY who hasnt won.....why touch a side its a pure guess IMO...obviously the game means more to NY.....

Its looks like value to fade NYG on a losing streak as a favand it looks like value grabbing NYG in a must win with a low spread..

gonna pray for points
 
Nut, the STL team total looks great. i realize they are on the road and dont play well away,however, I will take a risk her as minny's pass d is horrible and STL pass game is always been in the upper tier of the league.
23 seems low to me...Thanks !!!
 
biggoob said:
Nut, the STL team total looks great. i realize they are on the road and dont play well away,however, I will take a risk her as minny's pass d is horrible and STL pass game is always been in the upper tier of the league.
23 seems low to me...Thanks !!!
Click to expand...

They might have success slowing SJackson but that leaves Bulger to sling it and now Smoot is out as well...he was the nickel back who had been starting..

As bad as STL is away we have to like these two facts Turf & DOme...
 
Nut, Thanks for the reply...STL turf and dome should help us get ovr 23...at least STL has some motivation for the playoffs (as crazy as that sounds)..I dont expect jackson to do much on the ground but will excel in the passing game just as he did against chicago (10 catches for 58 yds and a TD)...I realize this game was a home game for STL..it is worth the risk.. Thanks again..
 
Thanks all! GL!

Okay after much thought and deliberation.....

NYG -1-111 (4units)
Over 42 -115 (4units)


As I said in Yanks 26 thread the whole world has given up on the Giants which in my dellusional eyes makes them undervalued. Great bounce back spot after a pathetic home effort ..go on the road get away from the fans and media and just playball...Wash defense this season when Spring swas out or played a minor role was awful...they had no answer for the Rams last week.....
 
Well that was relatively simple....my first instinct was toplay both team totals over and 1st Half over!! No ballz!
 
Was I not the only person wondering why on the last NYG TD they didnt gor for 2 ? To make it 14 there was now downside...?? Coughlin needs a clue!
 
Sunday :

2-0 +8.00 units on Sat
9-2 +19.18 units on Sun

Bills +10-115 {4units} ML +360{1/4u} Loss -4.85
Packers +3 +119{2units}WIN+2.38,+3.5 +100 WIN +2.00 {2units} ML +169{unit}+1.69 & Under 38-105 {2units}Win +2.00
Texans -5 -110 {4units) NO PLAY
Dolphins +10-115 {3units}ML +346 {1/2unit}Win +2.50
Colts 1st Q -0.5 -119(1unit)- seems to easy? L -1.19
Cheifs -1-122 {4units} WIn +4.00
Rams -1-105 {reduced to 3units} Win +3.00
NYJ -9.5 -110 {2units} WIN +2.00
Falcons +9 -109 {4units} ML +322 {1/2unit} Win +3.50
Seahawks +3.5 -110 {3units} WIN +3.00 ML +160{1/2unit}+0.80
Titans -3 -110 {4units} Loss -4.40
Cards +14 -104 {3units} ML +750 {1/4u} Win +2.75

Notes:
-With Buffalo its simply a team I expect that will come to play under Jauron. Look at the damage they have done as a dog this year..only ATS loss away as a dog...went to Indy and went toe to toe with the Colts. I understand the great incentive here for Balt but they could be w/o 2 OL here and the running game hasnt been great which is the Bills wekaness on defense....

-With GB despite the Bears solid backups I still feel there defense is lacking past few weeks. I expect a great effort as always with Favre last game always floating around. The key here is the GB defense 195 last 3 games. They have allowd basically one big play to Gore a few weeks back. This is a young team improving IMO and they get to the QB with 44 sacks. That leads to quick decisions and poor choices. No one believes in what GB has done recently but I do...

-On paper the Browns just have nothing left and a young Hou team I would expect would like to finish strong and build off the Indy upset with a new coach. Everyone is hurt on Cleveland just check the injury list and they are running their 3rd string QB Dorsey out there as well due to injury behind a busted OL , with no running game and all banged up WR's..

-Basically as long as Ravens win SU then this game is meaningless. Naturally if Buff pulls the upset I might change the play. We all know about Indy vs the run and so on....the Colts lack depth and once the backups are in you would hope Miami can keep it close..

-Both KC and Jax are longshots to make the playoffs. So wasnt it until recently that no one could win in KCin Dec?? Why would a 2-5 road team do it....20-2 since 95! Basically these teams are about even but Green is ahead of Garrard....

-Lets see whats to like about Minny...there banged up secondary , there lack of playmakers in the passing game now that Marcus Robinson is gone, there young 3rd string QB...?? I know STL has little to play for outside of 500 but the offense has looked better recently....and just dont know how Minny will score....

-looking at the jets cause after this miserable season do the Raiders want to play a 1 PM East Coast game...they didnt do much vs Cincy last situation like this....would like 10 here..simply cause I think NYJ get 21 at home and not sure Oak breaks 10..

-Impressed by Philly last week but I am gonna say they peaked in Dallas. Atl is dangerous on the ground and that is the Philly weakness..

-Seneca Wallace and Maurice Morris have seen significant time and I just dont see even if Sea doesnt play its starters how TB wins....Sea is desperate for a win!!

-Without a BYE I wouldnt expect a banged up NE team to play it starters long. Tenny is en fuego..and playing for its miracle shot at the playoffs and 9th win after starting 0-5..
 
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You KNOW one of these teams that needs a W for seeding will lose. Maybe more...

I tihnk the Bills are a live dog here. You got a lot of young skill players there that would absolutely love to finish the year off beating possibly this year's superbowl champ. The points are a must, the ML is valuable!

I like it, GL.
 
Team Totals : -2.82 point here , point there and a different story

Over Dallas 28 -116 {2units}WIN +2.00: Its now or never to straighten out the offense and get some momentum heading into the playoffs and what better D then the Lions.

Over 21 -110 Houston {4units} LOSS -4.40: Browns injury depleted have allowed last 6 teams above 23 pts while Jax past 4 at home have 27 , 20 , 21, 27

Under 16.5 -107 Cleveland {1unit} WIN +1.00 Reduced with Frye now back

Under 26 -108 Indy {1unit} Loss -1.08 F'n 27!: Dont trust the Indy backups to move the ball

Over 23 -110 Rams {3units} WIN +3.00: What incentive does Minny have here and what heallthy CB's are left?

Over 24 -110 Denver {3units} Loss -3.30 F'n 23!: Offense has steadily improved and SF defense especially away has alot to be desired.....

Over 17 -111 Seattle {1unit} WIN +!.00: Think Hawks have to show something here before the playoffs

Over 25 -104 Cincy {1unit} Loss -1.04: The Steelers D is banged up..
 
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Would you believe that there isn't one of your team plays I'm against this week, SN? Not one.

Now, I certainly haven't bet that many, but the only one I would be against would be Buffalo, but I'm not. Though I do have the Baltimore ML scattered in a few parlays for some juice reduction.

The totals though, I wonder about that Denver one for only this reason. Denver only needs to win this game. And in situations like this the Broncos have a history of doing just enough to do just that. They give up a cheap TD early on and sort of slog it out for the first half. Then take the lead in the third quarter and sort of hang on. I could see them tapping out at 20 and being done with it, even 23, especially if they can get up early on.

I hope you hit it, I'm just sayin'.

Oh, wait, I saw you're on the Falcons. That one I'm against. No, I'm not playing Philly, I agree nine is far too many, but Atlanta's done for the year. Vick's already said that he's focused on making sure he's back in Atlanta before New Year's Eve because he's got a party to go to. Mora is getting the Mike Tice treatment, part of me kind of thinks Blank might ask him to find his own way home after the game is over.

I know they're schitzo, but the Eagles generally play the Falcons well and if any team seems like they've quit, it's Atlanta.

Good luck tomorrow.
 
Can't believe so many seem to think the Falcons stand a chance against the Birds playing on the road in Philly. Vick has no heart, Coach Mora is a jack-ass, their season is done among other things. The Eagles have dominated this team at home in recent meetings and I see no different here. People keep expecting this Eagle train to derail but it ain't gonna happen. Birds by double digits in a laugher...
 
I just dont believe teams quit as much as people throw around...sure players dogg it at times but in general I dont expect ATL to show up disinsterested. I give Philly alot credit but before DAL what game did they play that was particularily impresive? The Panthers...barely won , the Skins barely won , the Giants needed a 4th quarter meltdown...So while I heap praise on them I thought 6.5 was more then fair here...

Would I be suprised to see Philly spank them...of course not but I am expecting some professionalism for the Falcons and some sort of flat spot for the Eagles after their hectic schedule of late....I rode that Eagles train the first three legs when no one believed and got off last week thinking Dal would be to much. Except DAL shpwed its true colors so not sure about everyone else but the Eagles train is about 1 game long...

BOL

Joe Pub-

With Den I think they could be around 17-21 by half very easily. The whole SF win in SEA would hopefully guard against them being complacent. I think there offense is growing quickly and SF might chip in with some help...

And I agree with you and Emkee if anyone lays a goose egg its ATL here. However I just think you have 2 things going for you on ATL. If Vick actually comes to play and scramble (not just drop back and throw)thats a huge plus but if he doesnt Matt Schaub will look to open eyes....

BOL
 
Totals: -4.54

Under 37 -109 KC {3u} L -3.27
Under 44 -109 Indy {3u}L -3.27
Under 17 -110 Oak 1st H {2units} W+2.00
 
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Okay if they were some "Dogs" that I think could bark just on watching these lines unfold:

Lions , Browns , Vikes (sad to say since I am on STL), and Carolina....
 
TEASER HEAVEN:

Ravens -9.5 , Bronocs -10 , NYJ -10 {1u}
Colts -9.5 , Bronocs -10 , NYJ -10 {1u}
Lions +13.5 , Cle +6 , Carolina -3 {2u}W
Eagles -9 , Broncos -10 , NYJ -10 {1u}
Titans -3.5 , Broncos -10 , NYJ{4u}L
SF +10 , Oak +10 {2u}L
 
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Second Half :

Carolina Panthers -3 -121 {5units} WIN +5.00 , Over 17.5 -125 {1u}Win +1.00

Houston Texasn -3 +108 {2units} WIN +2.16

The Texans are probably thee biggest sucker bet of all time...I mean how do you get a so called public play in Houston at just -3 wityh ++ vig saying they just have to win SU?? Seems to easy they ran 13 plays...Dayne fucked me cause I knew he wasnt going to play by his remarks should have stayed off that team total...

They were outplayed 1st H so badly that Browns had a msised FG and 2 turnovers real deep in CLE territory......

Under 19 -110 KC {3units} Loss -3.30

Expect Herm Edwards to be well Herm Edwards ...

Lions +7 +133 {1.5unit} Win +2.00 ML +450 {1/2unit} WIN+2.25

Shot in the dark BUT if Dallas was for real on their comeback from 13-0 they wouldnt have allowed that late Lions TD!
 
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biggoob said:
Nut, Thanks for the reply...STL turf and dome should help us get ovr 23...at least STL has some motivation for the playoffs (as crazy as that sounds)..I dont expect jackson to do much on the ground but will excel in the passing game just as he did against chicago (10 catches for 58 yds and a TD)...I realize this game was a home game for STL..it is worth the risk.. Thanks again..
Click to expand...

Not bad done at Halftime!
 
Nice call on Car. 2H.. I jumped that one big as soon as it came out..

Philly pulled everyone. I have my eye on that one. Atl is playing hard.
 
Are you moving GB from lean to play? I agree with your thoughts.

GB improving and Farve will keep it lively on the GB side

Chi doesn't even want this game to be played, and all starters gone early. (Not sure that is a good thing as it relates to Chi defense-ie would rather starters played)

GB ML
 
Yeah I am playing GB.. was just wondering if I would get some real good plus juice @ +3.5.....

So pissed how Zona , Miami and ATL went into the half...
 
Indy/Mia over 21 2H.. Indy Defense will get real bad at the end of this one and Indy should be good for 2TDS.
 
tee*dub said:
Indy/Mia over 21 2H.. Indy Defense will get real bad at the end of this one and Indy should be good for 2TDS.
Click to expand...

GL I hope the COlts arent good for 2 TDs but honestly dont think they try very much in the 2nd H....
 
Retburj said:
sporto...any idea about eagles HT?
Click to expand...

Sorry Ret I was flippin through the forums....Happy New Year though!! really didnt have any lean since I am already on ATL would have said the Falcons if you must with Philly backups in.
 
i was caught at Covers before i knew HT hit....

i hve ATL as well so lets hope they show some heart


Happy new year to u as well...drink lots! :)
 
Covers ' the forum' I mean must be in frenzy mode for Mr.Bator with SF winning SU...good guy happy he is doing well when he has the interests of 3000 people pending on his every move..
 
Fuckin Losman! and Jauron for throwing 1st goal at the 4yd line! Run would have been more of a suprise there...
 
Cant really complain....7-2 on sides but 1-2 on totals...one bad decision turned out to be changing my mind on Houston and even downgrading the Rams....just one bad decision playing Tenny ....
 
<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=blk-title colSpan=7>NFL Football - Sat 1/6</TD></TR><TR class=wht-title bgColor=#16177c><TD colSpan=3>Game</TD><TD noWrap>Spread</TD><TD noWrap>Money Line</TD><TD noWrap>Total Points</TD><TD>More </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Sat 1/6</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>479</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +3 +100 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+144 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 46 -108 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 05:00 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>480</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Seattle Seahawks <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -3 -108 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-154 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 46 -102 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=blk-title colSpan=7>NFL Football - Sun 1/7</TD></TR><TR class=wht-title bgColor=#16177c><TD colSpan=3>Game</TD><TD noWrap>Spread</TD><TD noWrap>Money Line</TD><TD noWrap>Total Points</TD><TD>More </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Sun 1/7</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>485</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>New York Giants</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +5.5 +102 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+220 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> OVER 46.5 -105 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 01:30 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>486</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Philadelphia Eagles <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -5.5 -110 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-240 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> UNDER 46.5 -105 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
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