The "College" Thread - That May Just Have It All.!!!

[G-Man]

College Football ONLY!

Consider this thread a handicapping class on-line!

We will gain much insight here in this thread, providing that YOU respond appropriately. Interaction will be priceless - if what's posted - can be used as good facts for capping.

I am looking for ways each of you cap a game. While there could be many statistics involved, please use only your best 5 reasons or stats - or less - that brings a play to life for you.

These will all become analyzed and responded to by everyone who wants to reflect on your capping ideas. Please explain as much as needed, to allow all of us to understand what works for everyone.

The more "detail" the better.

(I'll kindly ask that nobody posts any BS, as we intend to keep the thread all about logical effective methods, that the guys posting here use. I will ask mods to delete any nonsense, to allow all the responses to be shared by those who are trying to find serious, valuable information.)

:shake:

 

[RetroVK]

Here is my system of handicapping college football.

I start by analyzing each area of each football team ... qb , rb , wr , ol , dl , lb, cb/s , st. I usually do one unit at a time ... that is .. all the qb position for each team , then all the rbs for each team ... rather than doing a team all at once. A combination of each of the teams unit helps me to create my power rankings for each team based on personell and the system the team runs. I then assign a value to each homefield and in rare circumstances give teams a deduction for being that much worse a road team than an average squad ( hawaii comes to mind having to cross the ocean ). I then assign a value to each coach. This gets me the basic formula for my starting power rating. These numbers will be the foundation of my success or failure.

Once these basic numbers are established i examine how the strengths and weaknesses of each team relate to one another. Strong ol vs a weak dl where a teams style is to run a lot poses a distinct advantage that makes me adjust my line, for instance. This is the meat of my post power rating capping.


I then check the situation of the game ... revenge , look aheads , sandwiches , number of time zones crossed , key conference game, coaches comments , other motivational factors etc etc and assign a value to that and adjust my line accordingly.

I then check the likely weather and surface issues ..... sunny days benefit the finesse pussy passing teams , and wind hurts them ... rain is a benefit to dogs etc etc ... most of this is obvious. I also check the surface on which the teams are playing to determine if either team struggles on that particular surface or if a certain team rates to have an advantage of speed ( AT ) or that speed is more neutralized by high grass. If for any reason i think the line should be adjusted based on one of these factors i do it. Always have to remind myself that i am making my bets almost a full week ahead of when the game will be played and the weather is not a certainty.

On saturday night i make note of all injuries that i can so that i can adjust for any significant ones.

I then check trends.

I then check my gut. i dont give this much weight ( despite the size of it ) but i want to have a good feeling about the game. The fundamentals just about always outweigh the gut.

After i have examined all this stuff and made the adjustments to my orignial power rating i come up with my final line. I have this ready before the lines are released ... important for two reasons .. 1. to get the good bet in while the bad number is still there and 2. so that i am not biased about what the line should be prior to making my own line. I think number two is important. When we see a number we usually have an opinion right away as to how we feel about it ...... before we have done any work.. I think it is very important to have your line prepared before knowing the actual line.

When my line is different from the posted line by a certain predetermined amount , i make the bet ... if it does not qualify , i do not. In the instances where the difference falls just short of qualifying for a bet , i study those games even more all week ... sometimes finding a tidbit that makes me eliminate it or add it ... if i find nothing significantly new , it wont become a play.

After the lines come out i try to determine which way i think the line will move. Based on that determination i may make the bet immediately or i may wait in expectation of a greater number. If the number is already a key , then i wont wait .... in other words even if i think a line is moving from plus 7.5 to plus 8 .... i will take the plus 7.5 rather than risk it going to 7 instead. Likewise if i like a dog that is plus 2.5 i am likely to risk letting it fall to a 2 even when i think it is going to move that way in hopes of getting the plus 3. I usually play my totals immediately as i have less of a feel for which way these will move and just assume they will move against me since i feel the line is off.

I am sure i have left something out of this but that is a general idea of how i do it.

 

[G-Man]

Here is my system of handicapping college football.

I start by analyzing each area of each football team ... qb , rb , wr , ol , dl , lb, cb/s , st. I usually do one unit at a time ... that is .. all the qb position for each team , then all the rbs for each team ... rather than doing a team all at once. A combination of each of the teams unit helps me to create my power rankings for each team based on personell and the system the team runs. I then assign a value to each homefield and in rare circumstances give teams a deduction for being that much worse a road team than an average squad ( hawaii comes to mind having to cross the ocean ). I then assign a value to each coach. This gets me the basic formula for my starting power rating. These numbers will be the foundation of my success or failure.



When my line is different from the posted line by a certain predetermined amount , i make the bet ... if it does not qualify , i do not. In the instances where the difference falls just short of qualifying for a bet , i study those games even more all week ... sometimes finding a tidbit that makes me eliminate it or add it ... if i find nothing significantly new , it wont become a play.

After the lines come out i try to determine which way i think the line will move. Based on that determination i may make the bet immediately or i may wait in expectation of a greater number.

I am sure i have left something out of this but that is a general idea of how i do it.

Awesome post VK.

Let me ask...how do you calculate the power rankings? What is your number?


How much is the "line-difference" before you make a bet?


What criteria do you use to determine which way you think the pointspread will move?

For example. What line will you make up now for the Ohio State/USC game in week three? Please work this game out for the spread and why you like either team.

:shake:

 

[horses]

Good post Kyle. Very similar approach for myself...

I then check the situation of the game ... revenge , look aheads , sandwiches , number of time zones crossed , key conference game, coaches comments , other motivational factors etc etc and assign a value to that and adjust my line accordingly.

Question: How the heck do you do all this for 50 games before the lines are released on Sunday?

 

[RetroVK]

Awesome post VK.

1. Let me ask...how do you calculate the power rankings? What is your number?


2. How much is the "line-difference" before you make a bet?


3. What criteria do you use to determine which way you think the pointspread will move?

For example. What line will you make up now for the Ohio State/USC game in week three? Please work this game out for the spread and why you like either team.

:shake:

numbered the questions and then answered.

1. i have a range for each "unit" of a team. Certain units have greater weight than other units , in other words ol and dl are weighed heavier than wr or cb/s. The sum of all these unit scores makes the final power rating. Been doing this a long time so i have sort of worked out the kinks on how to weigh each unit and adjust based on personnel at other positions on the total offense/defense and how that personnel fits in to the system that the specific coach/program runs.

2. This has varied from year to year and has usually lowered as a result of me feeling that i have left money on the table by being too stringent. I am trying to increase my number of bets and i think i lower that difference again this year. Keep in mind that my final line takes everything i believe is relevant into account ... so sometimes the line comes out right where i would expect lvsc to make it, but i know my line will be different. As a general rule , i am ahead of the game and find better value early in the year.

3. well, for instance ... lets say a bet on oregon state as a dog AT USC qualifies for me. I am more likely to wait in this spot. The public is far more likely to bet usc up than oregon state down, of course the reverse is true if i like the usc side... i am more likely to bet it quickly. This is especially true when a small conference team plays a big school. Between the mass public not knowing a thing about western michigan or kent state and them loving every big name program you can expect that line to move a certain direction. Also , most of the public overvalues what they saw last week. So you can sometimes assume that if Alabama is coming off of a crushing of some other team , the public will remember that and will likely overbet them. If alabama just came off a loss to ulm ( grats BAR ) the public is likely to remember that as well and underbet them the next week. You also have to figure in Alumni. There are football schools that have a large betting base of "homers" , the smaller schools dont really have that kind of backing. Last year for instance it became obvious early in the year that if you wanted to bet against notre dame , you should do it as early in the week as possible. The public turned on this team quickly. If you liked the notre dame side it was often better to wait. I would be less likely to wait in a sunbelt conference game because i think a lot of the money that comes in on these games is sharp money ... "average joe college fan" just doesnt have the interest in ull vs ulm. They prefer to bet the games involving the "good teams" and/or the games that are on tv so they can sweat their action. Since I think a higher percentage of sharp money will come in on these types of games , i also think that waiting becomes less of a good idea. In other words , assuming my line is sharp ( big assumption ) the number in these games is more likely to move in a direction that gives me less value. Also , as a general rule , if i like the dog for thursday night , i wait and if i like the favorite i bet quickly. Public loves tv games and favorites. These thursday night games are also spots where if i like an under i wait and if i like an over i bet .. again public likes overs. Of course if it is because i researched weather and think it will be pouring rain ( remember giving folks a heads up on one of these games early in the week last year ) then i dont mind taking the lead sometimes as when the info does become available the line will be adjusted quickly.

I am a not fully prepared to make my line for week 3 usc-ohio state. Don't even have my power ratings done , let alone looked at the matchup. Will revisit that question later when i can take the time to answer it properly.

 

[RetroVK]

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Good post Kyle. Very similar approach for myself...

I then check the situation of the game ... revenge , look aheads , sandwiches , number of time zones crossed , key conference game, coaches comments , other motivational factors etc etc and assign a value to that and adjust my line accordingly.

Question: How the heck do you do all this for 50 games before the lines are released on Sunday?

Well , I am about a week ahead.

When the lines come out on sunday, I am ready to bet. This leaves me usually with the following scenarios.

1. I found a value and bet it ( don't need to cap anymore of that game )
2. I found a value that I am going to bet but I am waiting for line moves. ( i don't need to cap anymore of that game )
3. I found a game close to qualifying for a bet. I am waiting and hoping it hits the necessary line that i want, inwhich case i can bet it. I also spend time handicapping these games to even more minutia hoping to find information that might move MY line a half point . I refer to these as Strong Leans and/or "talk me off" leans. Since coaches press conferences dont happen until the weekdays , this is information that i often cannot have at the time the lines first come out and is also sometimes information that can make a minor change to MY line.
4. I find no value in a game and dont bet it. ( no need to handicap this game any further ).

So by the time monday morning hits , I have just a handful of games to handicap for the THAT week and since the games have already been capped , it is more searching for new information during the week. The rest of that time is spent handicapping for the following week. I then pretty much have my line prepared for each of the following weeks games ready before kickoff of the previous week... just need to make adjustments saturday night and sunday morning from box scores , what i saw saturday , injuries , coaches comments , and sunday is also when i try to figure out the weather as best i can for the upcoming games.

So that is how i try to stay a week ahead and thus am prepared for opening lines.

 

[RetroVK]

What i mention about waiting on dogs and betting favorites quickly for thursday night games is true but not nearly as true as it is for nfl monday night football.

Monday night football is a "chase game" ... that means favorites and overs. So if you like the dog and/or under it is better to wait and of course the opposite is true if you like the favorite. Using this philosphy can often get you middle opportunities as well.

 

[horses]

That's f******g awesome Kyle! Thanks for the reply.

You're inspiring me to go home and read my Northcoast magazine in spite of this job thing I got going right now...

 

[JPicks]

I had such a great post that I accidentally refreshed and lost yesterday. Kind of hard to go back thru and write it up all again especially after Kyle threw up a phenominal breakdown of how he bets games. Anyways I'll try and toss out what I had yesterday.

Last year was my first year betting CFB and I only focused on the MWC so my list is anything but solid. It's very liquid in that some of the things I focused on in the beginning of the year turned out to be not so important. Either way these are in no particular order. I certainly hope to be able to make my own power rankings at one point, but I'm not there quite yet.

YPC allowed vs averaged:

The MWC has become a defensive league that focuses quite a bit on rushing. This isn't the old WAC with offensive shootouts. The top 5 teams were the top 5 teams in the league in YPC allowed while the bottom 3 were the bottom 3 in YPC allowed. If you can't stop a team from running in the MWC you have no shot at winning. It obviously a bit different in every league, but that's been one of the main stats I love to look at in the MWC.

QB Play.

The thing I love about betting a conference like the MWC is the ability to understand how a 2nd string QB will affect a team. In the NFL a line will move 3, 4, and even 7 (extreme cases) points based on a QB injury. In the MWC one can get quite a bit of value strictly on knowing the tendancies of a backup QB versus the normal starter. Consider this: The UNLV Rebels were 1-8 O/U with Dixon as a starter last year and 3-0 O/U with Clayton starting. Often you can get a QB who is a great game manager with little offensive upside and another QB who is a horrible game manager (TO's) and great offensive upside. This information is gold.

Special Teams:

A very underated stat IMO. Just one little example as I'm gettin pissed about not being able to remember all the things I wrote yesterday. BYU got a great recruit from a local high school here that will be their kickoff guy this year. Regardless of his FG abilities the guy has a cannon for a leg. It's going to be quite an advantage for the Cougars to have a guy that can kick the ball out of the endzone on kickoffs and give a defense that only has 3 returning starters 80 yards to their back consistentely.

Past Performances vs teams:

I'm one who is under the belief that if a team has lost to a team 5 straight years and the coaches are the same there must be something significant to it. Again back to the MWC. Utah has a terrible time vs New Mexico while TCU kicks the crap out of New Mexico every time they play. Why does this happen? I have no idea, but it's no fluke. I'm not going to base a play on this, but it's certainly something that I pay attention to and can cause me to pass on a bet. Along the same lines, sandwich spots and revenge certainly fall under the same category.

Time of posession, yard differentials and turnovers:

All lumped together. Quite simple stats, but they work well for a team that may be struggling. If a team has lost a couple close games it's easy to look at the box score and look at the above stats and see if they are gettting outplayed or simply have run into a bad string of luck. If a team is controlling TOP they tend to win in the end minus bad luck. Nothing earth shattering about that by any means. I suppose along those same lines you have to understand who the playmakers are and how turnover prone they are. Expecting a guy like Karsten Sween to not turn over the ball is going to drain your wallet quickly.

 

[RetroVK]

Great post jpicks.....

Nice to see which Stats you find most useful.

Your ypc allowed vs average is definitely an important one.

When you are are checking past performances of one team vs another team , how far back do you go ?? certain number of years ?? since both coaches were there ?? Since the senior classes recruiting year ??

I check trends but consider myself more of a "matchup capper". Do you consider past performance of one team vs another as a trend or are you taking it into account more as future motivation/psychological-advantage ??

 

[Blue_Chip]

great post jpicks... i will be looking for your mwc conf write ups... gl this season

 

[RetroVK]

great post jpicks... i will be looking for your mwc conf write ups... gl this season

Yup as a mwc fan .. my favorite conference as a fan .... jpicks threads are a joy and as informative as you could want. It got to the point last year where i just considered his thread to be more source material

Sort of like a conference version of what you bring to the table for lsu , or etg with s carolina or hawaiiguy with hawaii etc etc.

 

[JPicks]

Great post jpicks.....

Nice to see which Stats you find most useful.

Your ypc allowed vs average is definitely an important one.

When you are are checking past performances of one team vs another team , how far back do you go ?? certain number of years ?? since both coaches were there ?? Since the senior classes recruiting year ??

I check trends but consider myself more of a "matchup capper". Do you consider past performance of one team vs another as a trend or are you taking it into account more as future motivation/psychological-advantage ??

I'd say it depends on the matchup. It's still a big part of how I'm growing into a CFB handicapper. Understanding why one team has an advantage over another is still something I'm learning. Is it mental? Team speed based on geography of recruits? A coaching system (offensive, defensive schemes) that another coach just has a hard adjusting to? Or is it just merely a 3 or 4 year run based on better athletes or athletes that have managed to gain a mental edge over another team? Those are the questions that I am constantly asking myself as I look at previous matchups.

I will say that I consider it more of a trend and I do not consider myself a huge trend guy. That said TCU is 1-4 under Gary Patterson on Thursday night games. It certainly is a trend, but is there more to it? I won't throw out a trend in that a team is 4-13 following their bye week without knowing why they struggle after bye weeks.

So to answer your final question I'd say I look at it more as a physcological tool. I think one teams' success, or lack off, against another in past years can cause them to play above/below their normal level. In the end it's still not a reason to make a play on a certain team, but it may be enough to keep me from playing them.

great post jpicks... i will be looking for your mwc conf write ups... gl this season

Thanks Blue. The CFB forum is getting me excited for the year no doubt.

 

[Marlo]

Last year was my first year betting CFB and I only focused on the MWC so my list is anything but solid. It's very liquid in that some of the things I focused on in the beginning of the year turned out to be not so important. Either way these are in no particular order. I certainly hope to be able to make my own power rankings at one point, but I'm not there quite yet.

YPC allowed vs averaged:

The MWC has become a defensive league that focuses quite a bit on rushing. This isn't the old WAC with offensive shootouts. The top 5 teams were the top 5 teams in the league in YPC allowed while the bottom 3 were the bottom 3 in YPC allowed. If you can't stop a team from running in the MWC you have no shot at winning. It obviously a bit different in every league, but that's been one of the main stats I love to look at in the MWC.

QB Play.

The thing I love about betting a conference like the MWC is the ability to understand how a 2nd string QB will affect a team. In the NFL a line will move 3, 4, and even 7 (extreme cases) points based on a QB injury. In the MWC one can get quite a bit of value strictly on knowing the tendancies of a backup QB versus the normal starter. Consider this: The UNLV Rebels were 1-8 O/U with Dixon as a starter last year and 3-0 O/U with Clayton starting. Often you can get a QB who is a great game manager with little offensive upside and another QB who is a horrible game manager (TO's) and great offensive upside. This information is gold.

Special Teams:

A very underated stat IMO. Just one little example as I'm gettin pissed about not being able to remember all the things I wrote yesterday. BYU got a great recruit from a local high school here that will be their kickoff guy this year. Regardless of his FG abilities the guy has a cannon for a leg. It's going to be quite an advantage for the Cougars to have a guy that can kick the ball out of the endzone on kickoffs and give a defense that only has 3 returning starters 80 yards to their back consistentely.

Past Performances vs teams:

I'm one who is under the belief that if a team has lost to a team 5 straight years and the coaches are the same there must be something significant to it. Again back to the MWC. Utah has a terrible time vs New Mexico while TCU kicks the crap out of New Mexico every time they play. Why does this happen? I have no idea, but it's no fluke. I'm not going to base a play on this, but it's certainly something that I pay attention to and can cause me to pass on a bet. Along the same lines, sandwich spots and revenge certainly fall under the same category.

Time of posession, yard differentials and turnovers:

All lumped together. Quite simple stats, but they work well for a team that may be struggling. If a team has lost a couple close games it's easy to look at the box score and look at the above stats and see if they are gettting outplayed or simply have run into a bad string of luck. If a team is controlling TOP they tend to win in the end minus bad luck. Nothing earth shattering about that by any means. I suppose along those same lines you have to understand who the playmakers are and how turnover prone they are. Expecting a guy like Karsten Sween to not turn over the ball is going to drain your wallet quickly.

Jpicks

Quick question, I am in the same boat this year as you were in last year. I have been reading through P.S. now for about 4-5 days, and highlighting everything I think is important. Did you find it easier to just focus on one conference? Rather than try and cap the whole card? I know your from out West, and I'm assuming that is why you chose the MWC. I have been thinking this wouldn't be a bad idea for myself to get aquainted.

Thanks

 

[JPicks]

Jpicks

Quick question, I am in the same boat this year as you were in last year. I have been reading through P.S. now for about 4-5 days, and highlighting everything I think is important. Did you find it easier to just focus on one conference? Rather than try and cap the whole card? I know your from out West, and I'm assuming that is why you chose the MWC. I have been thinking this wouldn't be a bad idea for myself to get aquainted.

Thanks

Kind of a tough question Marlo. I picked the MWC only because I went to the U of U and I already knew a bit about each team in the conference. With 100+ football teams in CFB I know that even in 5 years I'll have little interest in betting SEC, Big 12, and Big 10 football. It's not that I don't enjoy watching those conferences. There is so much damn info out these days that there will always be a huge population of people that will know more than I do about these teams. I like the idea of the MWC and hopefully expanding to the WAC next year as they aren't all over ESPN and you can make a ton of money on some of the things I mentioned in this thread that aren't plastered all over the headlines of every sports page.

Beyond the idea of knowing where to look for all the great stories about MWC teams I also don't have the mental capability to remember things about 100 different teams. I'd need a small army to cover all of them.

So ya I think it'd be alot easier for you to pick a conference and know it inside and out. At the same time you might have an amazing memory and be able to retain alot of the information you've read about a 100 teams and then why limit yourself. I don't have an amazing memory so I've gone the one conference route to get my feet wet. I just figured that if I want more plays per week than the MWC provides me I can look to other respected people in this forum for additional plays.

 

[Marlo]

Kind of a tough question Marlo. I picked the MWC only because I went to the U of U and I already knew a bit about each team in the conference. With 100+ football teams in CFB I know that even in 5 years I'll have little interest in betting SEC, Big 12, and Big 10 football. It's not that I don't enjoy watching those conferences. There is so much damn info out these days that there will always be a huge population of people that will know more than I do about these teams. I like the idea of the MWC and hopefully expanding to the WAC next year as they aren't all over ESPN and you can make a ton of money on some of the things I mentioned in this thread that aren't plastered all over the headlines of every sports page.

Beyond the idea of knowing where to look for all the great stories about MWC teams I also don't have the mental capability to remember things about 100 different teams. I'd need a small army to cover all of them.

So ya I think it'd be alot easier for you to pick a conference and know it inside and out. At the same time you might have an amazing memory and be able to retain alot of the information you've read about a 100 teams and then why limit yourself. I don't have an amazing memory so I've gone the one conference route to get my feet wet. I just figured that if I want more plays per week than the MWC provides me I can look to other respected people in this forum for additional plays.

Thanks a million!!!!

I really think the 1-2 conference thing is the way I'm leaning, and for the latter the underline point above.

I can't say this enough

CTG :cheers:

 

[E.T.G.]

Awsome thread, I am going to print some of this shit out and fine tune what I do.

So much mentioned here already..


One thing I want to pay a lot more attention to is speed. There is a world of difference in CFB with speed. Its not like the NFL where every player is big-strong-fast, some college teams have a very distinct speed advantage, ie: UF offense. Another example would be UGA on defense. Hawaii might of thought UGA was fast, wait until their defense sees those Gators running around at 100mph compared to their 50.

I like to try and watch as many games as possible, even if that means setting up the DVR on 3 different TV's. The box score can only tell you so much. I like to know what a team looks like, what they like to do, what they suck at and I like to see it with my own eyes. Granted it is impossible to watch every game but I try to catch as much as possible.

I do make lines for every game before they come out but I do it straight off of my gut. I see a game and spit out a spread in .3 seconds. I do believe that when you look at something, you know if it feels right or wrong right away. After the lines come out, I go over my list and compare. It is tough though because I get caught inbetween "what I think the line should be" and "what I think the line will be". Then I get into breaking the games down and then I come up with a preliminary list which I will then narrow down.

Sometimes I bet early, sometimes I bet late, I do however get really pissed when Dr. Bob fucks with my lines so sometimes all bets might be in before Thursday.

I have plenty to work on, mainly not half assing my money any more. There have been many times where I don't feel like going through every game, where I avoid certain conferences, and a major problem of mine is over-thinking and this happens when I am losing. Confidence is a bitch

I try to find a play on every South Carolina game because of how familiar I am with the program. I am finding that the longer I am out of school, the more I can feel less emotional attachment to the team in a betting sense. I still hope they go 12-0 :36_11_6: but I am realistic too. I think it would be stupid for me to not bet on their games since I know how every practice leading to the game that week went. I also have to give a lot of credit to Tony Morreli (Gamecockcentral Writer), he is able to keep it real and his thoughts are usually spot on while having so much access to the team. Truly unbiased and calls it like it is. On top of that, there is an "Ask Tony Morreli" thread everyday so you can find out what you need to know..Last year I feel like I thought the team should of been better than they were, a lot of shit happened, but there is 1 specific situation that pisses me off to this day. In the off-season I thought they would take Arky down so when it came time for that game, I was trying to hold onto those thought. Meanwhile, the week before, SC just lost a heartbreaking game @ Tennessee in OT. They went on to make D-Mac's highlight tape that game but from an emotional stand point for the team, I should have seen that it was an absolute terrible spot going on the road again after losing a heart breaking game in OT, making the 2nd loss in 2 weeks.

I think having a monthly $9.99 rivals membership is a great invesment and getting Gameplan is another good investment.

Those are just some things off the top of my head that I do. Love this thread, :shake:

 

[GridironGems]

i just look at numerous websites everyday reading articles...read phil steele from front to back...then once i start looking at the games just see how each position compares to the team they are facing along with other factors of course

 

[G-Man]

This thread is going JUST as I had hoped. Keep it going guys.

There are probably 50 more guys who actually have capping systems on this site, that haven't even logged on yet, because they only bet and cap football during the season.

This thread is getting better every day. By the time football starts, we should all have shared priceless info.

:shake:

 

[ynnhoj316]

solid posts guys ... only a few more months

$$$$$

 

[Blue_Chip]

$$$$$

damn right, ynnhoj!

since this is g-man's thread to have it all, here's what i'm looking at this season...

wk1:

• i've said this in other thrads, but unc laying 13 to mcneese should be money. this play is self explanatory if you read up on unc.
• lsu -21 to appy st. espn will be broadcasting this game. the public will be hoping for another upset, but it's not going to happen for two reasons: lsu this yr is better than michigan last yr & appy st is worse this yr. app st lost alot.
• tx tech laying the pts as they will run up the score (as usual) to gain attention in the rankings.

wk2:

• bama laying the pts at home to tulane ONLY IF bama loses to clemson in atlanta. tulane lost their offense (forte) and should get crushed in tuscaloosa. this is tulane's first game of the season, but bama will have already played the very good clemson tigers. if bama loses in atlanta to clemson, saban will want to show the crazies in tuscaloosa that he is capable of winning... and winning big.
• again, tx tech laying the pts for the reasons listed above.

wk3 & 4:

• again, tx tech laying the pts for the reasons listed above.

 

[tru]

lsu -21 to appy st. espn will be broadcasting this game. the public will be hoping for another upset, but it's not going to happen for two reasons: lsu this yr is better than michigan last yr & appy st is worse this yr. app st lost alot.

i really dont think betting public will be on appy state, its still national tv an its a big time school wit lsu. money will be on lsu bank that.

 

[E.T.G.]

i really dont think betting public will be on appy state, its still national tv an its a big time school wit lsu. money will be on lsu bank that.

I could agree with that but I think Utah is going to be a pick that the whole US has

 

[Magnum Force]

My main focus is the strength of program and coaches. Basically for big money I want to bet on the best programs. The coach determines the character and personality of the team and some coaches can show traits that repeat year after year. Like Lloyd Carr at Mich was a great dog but horrible fav (ditto Jim Grobe at WF), Richt's Bulldogs are great road warriors, etc.

Last year Mich got off to a horrendous start and everyone was down on them, but I made three large bets on them (Purd, Ill and Bowl game vs Fla) because this is still a power program.
Virginia Tech had a 40 point loss at LSU early on and struggled mightily on offense. But this program is still far better than most in their conf (11-2 as RF's & 20-6 in the ACC!) and they did a nice job down the stretch winning and covering (in particular the Duke game sticks out, they opened -10 and closed -13.5 or 14! Easy winner for Big money!)

Yet another example was Auburn. Opened with two surprising losses at Jordan Hare early on and people thought they would be horrible. Hence, the following week they're made a 18 point dog at Fla (which was ridiculous) and win outright. Only wish I had the ML as well in that one. So when top flight programs are being undervalued I like to take my biggest shots of the season.

 

[tru]

i was on auburn in that game also but due to tha fact FL was next week sandwiched in a lsu game also. i predicted a auburn cover wit ease 100% but ireally didnt think they would pull off tha upset or i woulda hit tha ml as a normal ml bet also. that game was a clear look ahead game though no fuckin doubt about it.

an also fuck tech. them niggas couldnt do shit when i bet for them an could do all kinda shit when i was against em. i bet against em they superman, i bet on em they got tha kryptononite on all over em

 

[G-Man]

I had such a great post that I accidentally refreshed and lost yesterday. Kind of hard to go back thru and write it up all again especially after Kyle threw up a phenominal breakdown of how he bets games. Anyways I'll try and toss out what I had yesterday.

Last year was my first year betting CFB and I only focused on the MWC so my list is anything but solid. It's very liquid in that some of the things I focused on in the beginning of the year turned out to be not so important. Either way these are in no particular order. I certainly hope to be able to make my own power rankings at one point, but I'm not there quite yet.

YPC allowed vs averaged:

The MWC has become a defensive league that focuses quite a bit on rushing. This isn't the old WAC with offensive shootouts. The top 5 teams were the top 5 teams in the league in YPC allowed while the bottom 3 were the bottom 3 in YPC allowed. If you can't stop a team from running in the MWC you have no shot at winning. It obviously a bit different in every league, but that's been one of the main stats I love to look at in the MWC.

QB Play.

The thing I love about betting a conference like the MWC is the ability to understand how a 2nd string QB will affect a team. In the NFL a line will move 3, 4, and even 7 (extreme cases) points based on a QB injury. In the MWC one can get quite a bit of value strictly on knowing the tendancies of a backup QB versus the normal starter. Consider this: The UNLV Rebels were 1-8 O/U with Dixon as a starter last year and 3-0 O/U with Clayton starting. Often you can get a QB who is a great game manager with little offensive upside and another QB who is a horrible game manager (TO's) and great offensive upside. This information is gold.

Special Teams:

A very underated stat IMO. Just one little example as I'm gettin pissed about not being able to remember all the things I wrote yesterday. BYU got a great recruit from a local high school here that will be their kickoff guy this year. Regardless of his FG abilities the guy has a cannon for a leg. It's going to be quite an advantage for the Cougars to have a guy that can kick the ball out of the endzone on kickoffs and give a defense that only has 3 returning starters 80 yards to their back consistentely.

Past Performances vs teams:

I'm one who is under the belief that if a team has lost to a team 5 straight years and the coaches are the same there must be something significant to it. Again back to the MWC. Utah has a terrible time vs New Mexico while TCU kicks the crap out of New Mexico every time they play. Why does this happen? I have no idea, but it's no fluke. I'm not going to base a play on this, but it's certainly something that I pay attention to and can cause me to pass on a bet. Along the same lines, sandwich spots and revenge certainly fall under the same category.

Time of posession, yard differentials and turnovers:

All lumped together. Quite simple stats, but they work well for a team that may be struggling. If a team has lost a couple close games it's easy to look at the box score and look at the above stats and see if they are gettting outplayed or simply have run into a bad string of luck. If a team is controlling TOP they tend to win in the end minus bad luck. Nothing earth shattering about that by any means. I suppose along those same lines you have to understand who the playmakers are and how turnover prone they are. Expecting a guy like Karsten Sween to not turn over the ball is going to drain your wallet quickly.

Just curious on how you find the point spread in your favor with using the factors between two teams? What value do you put on the stats if one team is favored by 12 points?

Please give some details.



:

 

[Inspekdah]

In my opinion the season has 3 to 4 very different sections.


Weeks 1-4

Outcome of games heavily weighed on returning starters, how the teams in the previous season did in similar situations, and past trends/scores of teams vs. certain conferences.

Here you can find some teams who usually start the season successfully and ride them 2, 3 or even all 4 weeks before the lines are adjusted and conference play begins.

This is where I look for high scoring teams vs. weak teams who historically fail big, on the road vs. teams simply out of their league.

I try to avoid big games circled on television where the spread is 3 or 4... in which generate the most action and the line is very sharp. This is where the books make their most money... the television games offered on parlay cards. I compare these type of showdowns to be similar to the NFL and harder to predict.

Weeks 5-8

Watch the teams that once covered and crushed the competition to fall victim to conference play and rivalries. Take home dogs of large points when they are coming off of big losses. I like to take this time of year off and look more at pre-season NBA action which I find very easy to make a considerable profit on.

Weeks 9-Bowls

Now you have a good feel for how certain teams play vs. the majority of competition and little should surprise you. Look for sandwich and lookahead games and must-win games.



I think last season was a difficult one for CFB cappers. The style that seemed to be so successful for many in years past seemed to put out average to below average results. I think this year will be easier to predict... as I have already found some teams I feel very confident in and know what I will lay and know which teams I think will cover only a couple of games at most.


Here's to a good season.

 

[JPicks]

Just curious on how you find the point spread in your favor with using the factors between two teams? What value do you put on the stats if one team is favored by 12 points?

Please give some details.



:

Can you expand on your question a bit? Specifically the first one. I kind of understand what you're asking but I'd rather be sure before getting to in-depth with an answer.

 

[JPicks]

In my opinion the season has 3 to 4 very different sections.


Weeks 1-4

Outcome of games heavily weighed on returning starters, how the teams in the previous season did in similar situations, and past trends/scores of teams vs. certain conferences.

Here you can find some teams who usually start the season successfully and ride them 2, 3 or even all 4 weeks before the lines are adjusted and conference play begins.

This is where I look for high scoring teams vs. weak teams who historically fail big, on the road vs. teams simply out of their league.

I try to avoid big games circled on television where the spread is 3 or 4... in which generate the most action and the line is very sharp. This is where the books make their most money... the television games offered on parlay cards. I compare these type of showdowns to be similar to the NFL and harder to predict.

Weeks 5-8

Watch the teams that once covered and crushed the competition to fall victim to conference play and rivalries. Take home dogs of large points when they are coming off of big losses. I like to take this time of year off and look more at pre-season NBA action which I find very easy to make a considerable profit on.

Weeks 9-Bowls

Now you have a good feel for how certain teams play vs. the majority of competition and little should surprise you. Look for sandwich and lookahead games and must-win games.



I think last season was a difficult one for CFB cappers. The style that seemed to be so successful for many in years past seemed to put out average to below average results. I think this year will be easier to predict... as I have already found some teams I feel very confident in and know what I will lay and know which teams I think will cover only a couple of games at most.


Here's to a good season.

Excellent points. Definitely something that I should be paying more attention to this year. :shake:

 

[G-Man]

Can you expand on your question a bit? Specifically the first one. I kind of understand what you're asking but I'd rather be sure before getting to in-depth with an answer.

Ok JPicks here are a few...

YPC allowed vs averaged:
What factors on this stat actually offers you some kind of pointspread value?


QB Play.

The thing I love about betting a conference like the MWC is the ability to understand how a 2nd string QB will affect a team. In the NFL a line will move 3, 4, and even 7 (extreme cases) points based on a QB injury. In the MWC one can get quite a bit of value strictly on knowing the tendancies of a backup QB versus the normal starter. Consider this: The UNLV Rebels were 1-8 O/U with Dixon as a starter last year and 3-0 O/U with Clayton starting. Often you can get a QB who is a great game manager with little offensive upside and another QB who is a horrible game manager (TO's) and great offensive upside. This information is gold.

This explanation you have here seems to explain itself. Its obviously used for "totals"

Special Teams:

A very underated stat IMO. Just one little example as I'm gettin pissed about not being able to remember all the things I wrote yesterday. BYU got a great recruit from a local high school here that will be their kickoff guy this year. Regardless of his FG abilities the guy has a cannon for a leg. It's going to be quite an advantage for the Cougars to have a guy that can kick the ball out of the endzone on kickoffs and give a defense that only has 3 returning starters 80 yards to their back consistentely.

Again, I also like this theory. But, Is there a certian point spread value here when compared to another team?

Past Performances vs teams:

I'm one who is under the belief that if a team has lost to a team 5 straight years and the coaches are the same there must be something significant to it. Again back to the MWC. Utah has a terrible time vs New Mexico while TCU kicks the crap out of New Mexico every time they play. Why does this happen? I have no idea, but it's no fluke. I'm not going to base a play on this, but it's certainly something that I pay attention to and can cause me to pass on a bet. Along the same lines, sandwich spots and revenge certainly fall under the same category.

This one here is hard to reason with from teams habits a few years back? Do you think that the spread isnt adjusted after losing 5 straight times to this team? If so what spread value would you put on this? Would you give the dog here another 3, 4, or 10 points to the spread?



Time of posession, yard differentials and turnovers:

All lumped together. Quite simple stats, but they work well for a team that may be struggling. If a team has lost a couple close games it's easy to look at the box score and look at the above stats and see if they are gettting outplayed or simply have run into a bad string of luck. If a team is controlling TOP they tend to win in the end minus bad luck. Nothing earth shattering about that by any means. I suppose along those same lines you have to understand who the playmakers are and how turnover prone they are. Expecting a guy like Karsten Sween to not turn over the ball is going to drain your wallet quickly.

How does this apply to the current week, if the team that is struggling with all these shortcomings "Time of posession, yard differentials and turnovers".

What happens to your pointspread if the team they are playing has none of these problems, and then - if they are playing a bad team this week that has the same problems?

Furthermore, what if this team that is playing badly, has covered every game during this span of games?


Please elaborate. :shake:

 

[G-Man]

In my opinion the season has 3 to 4 very different sections.


Weeks 1-4

Outcome of games heavily weighed on returning starters, how the teams in the previous season did in similar situations, and past trends/scores of teams vs. certain conferences.

Here you can find some teams who usually start the season successfully and ride them 2, 3 or even all 4 weeks before the lines are adjusted and conference play begins.

What do you use for Pointspreads in the first 4 weeks to determine which team to bet on?

This is where I look for high scoring teams vs. weak teams who historically fail big, on the road vs. teams simply out of their league.

I try to avoid big games circled on television where the spread is 3 or 4... in which generate the most action and the line is very sharp. This is where the books make their most money... the television games offered on parlay cards. I compare these type of showdowns to be similar to the NFL and harder to predict.

Weeks 5-8

Watch the teams that once covered and crushed the competition to fall victim to conference play and rivalries. Take home dogs of large points when they are coming off of big losses. I like to take this time of year off and look more at pre-season NBA action which I find very easy to make a considerable profit on.

How large does the dog pointspread have to be and why?

Weeks 9-Bowls

Now you have a good feel for how certain teams play vs. the majority of competition and little should surprise you. Look for sandwich and lookahead games and must-win games.



I think last season was a difficult one for CFB cappers. The style that seemed to be so successful for many in years past seemed to put out average to below average results. I think this year will be easier to predict... as I have already found some teams I feel very confident in and know what I will lay and know which teams I think will cover only a couple of games at most.

What "Style' are you referring to? What results did you find good or bad against the spread?


Here's to a good season.

Please give more details to blue highlighted questions. Thanks,:shake:

 

[Seabass]

I personally don't evaluate things by the numbers as much as some of you guys do, which is ironic given that my job is one where the numbers are the only dependable way to make a decision. I do think this is one of my weaknesses as a football handicapper, but I've been very successful in CFB regardless - it's really the one sport where I think I am better at gambling than most other people.

Sometimes I wonder if I'm best at college football because its the one sport where I am not a die-hard fan of any team (UConn Football is getting there, but they are so fresh that I don't think I am biased yet).

Instead of quantifying everything, I use more of a judgmental "directional system". I start by assuming that the line incorporates all of the available information. Then I try to look at both teams and figure out what information might currently be over-stated or under-stated. If a team is fresh off a blowout win at home, but I know that three of the touchdowns were scored in the final few minutes, I'll consider that team a little over-stated. If a team just lost a game where they had a good reason to lose (middle game of a sandwich, lost at a tough road stadium, etc.) I'll consider that team to be a little under-rated.

There are countless other examples that I'm looking for, but really what I'm trying to figure out is whether past success is sustainable. If a team can run and stop the run, that's almost always sustainable. If a team is relying on a passing game and a bend but don't break defense, that isn't going to be sustainable. In general, though, its the emotions of college football that I like the best..the sandwich games, the tough road games, the inevitable letdown after a big win. It's harder to find these situations in the pros, but in college they are everywhere...

 

[Seabass]

Oops...I guess I never really finished off my post. I generally make bets only when I find that one team is over-stated, and the other is under-stated. I want both situations to apply...

 

[Mags]

G-Man, great thread!

Any way, at the beginning of the season I really look at just a few things...1) returning starters 2) conference strength 3) coaching 4)situation (look ahead game, sandwhich spot, etc. After a few weeks I really start digging into things such as PPG, road/home record, etc. I believe for the most part the start or the seaon is so much easier which is why you see alot of cappers posting their records early then they will stop doing it because there is a big drop off as the season goes. I've been pretty consistent in college ball the last couple of years since I decided to stop playing so many games. I usually break the entire weekly schedule down into 3 times (early games 12-1:30), afternoon kicks (3:00 - 5;00)and finally evening games 7:00 kick and later)). I try to look at games early in the week w/o looking at the lines at anticipate where they will be. Once I have the games that I think I would play I then look at the lines to try and identify big differences. At this point I will narrow my potential plays down to 2-4 for each time and go from there. Obviously, along the way, I am constantly looking to see what you guys are thinking and see if it's in line with my thought process. This site kicks ass, the more people post their thoughts the better, even if they are in the minority as it gives others another way of looking at a game. Anyway, a ramble, but that's my process. Thanks again for the post and for everyone's replies. Let's kick ass again this season boys and girls!

:cheers:

 

[G-Man]

G-Man, great thread!

Any way, at the beginning of the season I really look at just a few things...1) returning starters 2) conference strength 3) coaching 4)situation (look ahead game, sandwhich spot, etc.

After a few weeks I really start digging into things such as PPG, road/home record, etc. I believe for the most part the start or the seaon is so much easier which is why you see alot of cappers posting their records early then they will stop doing it because there is a big drop off as the season goes.

I've been pretty consistent in college ball the last couple of years since I decided to stop playing so many games. I usually break the entire weekly schedule down into 3 times (early games 12-1:30), afternoon kicks (3:00 - 5;00)and finally evening games 7:00 kick and later)). I try to look at games early in the week w/o looking at the lines at anticipate where they will be. Once I have the games that I think I would play I then look at the lines to try and identify big differences. At this point I will narrow my potential plays down to 2-4 for each time and go from there. Obviously, along the way, I am constantly looking to see what you guys are thinking and see if it's in line with my thought process. This site kicks ass, the more people post their thoughts the better, even if they are in the minority as it gives others another way of looking at a game. Anyway, a ramble, but that's my process. Thanks again for the post and for everyone's replies. Let's kick ass again this season boys and girls!

:cheers:

Hey Mags.
Could you please offer an example from last year where these things you mentioned (After a few weeks I really start digging into things such as PPG, road/home record, etc.) with the spread, that showed why you bet them?
:shake:

 

[JPicks]

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">Originally Posted by JPicks
Can you expand on your question a bit? Specifically the first one. I kind of understand what you're asking but I'd rather be sure before getting to in-depth with an answer.

Ok JPicks here are a few...

YPC allowed vs averaged:
What factors on this stat actually offers you some kind of pointspread value?

Honestly this will be my 2nd year betting CFB so I have no # sytem that is tied to these stats. The actual categories were fluid themselves last year and I hope to, at one point, be able to lay down some point values for the mentioned stats but I certainly haven't done it at this point.

The stat is pretty generic to me. In a conference won by defensive teams you can either run the ball/stop the run or you can't. I can't say that if I see one team run 3.4 ypr and the other team allow 4.5 ypr that I have any # system to adjust my pointspread. It's just a way for me to know what to expect when I bet on/against a certain spread.

For instance I take CSU as a 17 point dog against BYU I will know that once BYU is up 14 points in the fourth and CSU allows 4.5 YPC while BYU averages 5.2 YPC that I can just shut my TV off as BYU will just run it down their throats and win by 21, 24, 28. Insert whatever team name you need.



QB Play.

The thing I love about betting a conference like the MWC is the ability to understand how a 2nd string QB will affect a team. In the NFL a line will move 3, 4, and even 7 (extreme cases) points based on a QB injury. In the MWC one can get quite a bit of value strictly on knowing the tendancies of a backup QB versus the normal starter. Consider this: The UNLV Rebels were 1-8 O/U with Dixon as a starter last year and 3-0 O/U with Clayton starting. Often you can get a QB who is a great game manager with little offensive upside and another QB who is a horrible game manager (TO's) and great offensive upside. This information is gold.

This explanation you have here seems to explain itself. Its obviously used for "totals"

Special Teams:

A very underated stat IMO. Just one little example as I'm gettin pissed about not being able to remember all the things I wrote yesterday. BYU got a great recruit from a local high school here that will be their kickoff guy this year. Regardless of his FG abilities the guy has a cannon for a leg. It's going to be quite an advantage for the Cougars to have a guy that can kick the ball out of the endzone on kickoffs and give a defense that only has 3 returning starters 80 yards to their back consistentely.

Again, I also like this theory. But, Is there a certian point spread value here when compared to another team?

Give me a game that is a PK and I'll take the team with the better ST's unit. If one team is going to have field advantage all day and the better K I want that team. Same thing goes for a home dog of less than 4 points who has a superior ST's unit. Give me 50 games and a small dog and I'll win way more often that not if I have the superiour special teams unit. Do I blind poll at any gambling website and ask them to tell you which MWC team has a better ST unit and I gurantee nobody will have a clue. Nor should they. But I'm going to capitalize on that.

Past Performances vs teams:

I'm one who is under the belief that if a team has lost to a team 5 straight years and the coaches are the same there must be something significant to it. Again back to the MWC. Utah has a terrible time vs New Mexico while TCU kicks the crap out of New Mexico every time they play. Why does this happen? I have no idea, but it's no fluke. I'm not going to base a play on this, but it's certainly something that I pay attention to and can cause me to pass on a bet. Along the same lines, sandwich spots and revenge certainly fall under the same category.

This one here is hard to reason with from teams habits a few years back? Do you think that the spread isnt adjusted after losing 5 straight times to this team? If so what spread value would you put on this? Would you give the dog here another 3, 4, or 10 points to the spread?


No I don't the spread is adjusted after losing 5 straight years. How many people that bet CFB really know that NM hasn't beaten TCU since the Frogs joined the MWC. It's not that they haven't beaten them it's that they've had their asses handed to them. The fact that it's an opening weekend matchup this year may shed more light on it, but I still don't think the books are going to adjust more than a point or so.

I don't have a "system" of allocating a certain # of points to any dogs in this situation. It's more or less just me being aware of one teams ability to have a mental or physical edge over a common opponent. These advantages might not be a big deal in the SEC but in a small conference that doesn't get a bunch of media attention it can make a big difference.


Time of posession, yard differentials and turnovers:

All lumped together. Quite simple stats, but they work well for a team that may be struggling. If a team has lost a couple close games it's easy to look at the box score and look at the above stats and see if they are gettting outplayed or simply have run into a bad string of luck. If a team is controlling TOP they tend to win in the end minus bad luck. Nothing earth shattering about that by any means. I suppose along those same lines you have to understand who the playmakers are and how turnover prone they are. Expecting a guy like Karsten Sween to not turn over the ball is going to drain your wallet quickly.

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
How does this apply to the current week, if the team that is struggling with all these shortcomings "Time of posession, yard differentials and turnovers".

It's more of seeing a team get their asses kicked the week before and checking the box score only to realize that they had a great advantage in TOP, yards, and turned over the ball unexpectedly 4 times in the red zone.


What happens to your pointspread if the team they are playing has none of these problems, and then - if they are playing a bad team this week that has the same problems?

I feel like these questions are coming from my Statistics teacher at this point. Some of these question could only be anwered if I had a perfect computer model that evaluated all of these stats in a vacuum.


Furthermore, what if this team that is playing badly, has covered every game during this span of games?

Who knows. They must be a great team and would probably be undervalued as a favorite by the books even at this point.

Imagine team A outgaining their opponent by 300 yards a game, having the ball 20 minutes more a game and continually turning over the ball 5 times a game while winning by 14 points a game. I mean you tell me what the hell you would do? Bet the shit out of them I suppose.


Please elaborate. :shake:

 

[B.A.R.]

Great thread so far guys.

I will have more as we go. Gonna contribute a few small things to begin with.

first, what Spek said....

In my opinion the season has 3 to 4 very different sections.

I think the exact same thing. Now, this isn't true all the time but over the course of this decade it has applied to my style I guess. September is usually gravy. Then confernence season is totally underway. Thats when it seems to get tough. Have had many a tough Octobers. The end of the season and Bowls is when it generally gets easier. I just try and limit myself a bit during that middle part of season.

 

[Mags]

Hey Mags.
Could you please offer an example from last year where these things you mentioned (After a few weeks I really start digging into things such as PPG, road/home record, etc.) with the spread, that showed why you bet them?
:shake:

Sure. I think the best example for me would be Uconn last year. After seeing how they were playing (in particular against the spread) after the first couple of weeks I started playing them as they were getting no respect. If memory serves me right, they finished 7-2 or 6-3 the last 9 games ATS. This is a team that flew WAY beneath my radar and I was not considering a team to follow hadn't I been looking at the stats mentioned. As you know, it happens every year. A few years ago it was Rutgers, then Syracuse and Navy.

 

[G-Man]

I personally don't evaluate things by the numbers as much as some of you guys do, which is ironic given that my job is one where the numbers are the only dependable way to make a decision. I do think this is one of my weaknesses as a football handicapper, but I've been very successful in CFB regardless - it's really the one sport where I think I am better at gambling than most other people.

Sometimes I wonder if I'm best at college football because its the one sport where I am not a die-hard fan of any team (UConn Football is getting there, but they are so fresh that I don't think I am biased yet).

Instead of quantifying everything, I use more of a judgmental "directional system". I start by assuming that the line incorporates all of the available information. Then I try to look at both teams and figure out what information might currently be over-stated or under-stated.

If a team is fresh off a blowout win at home, but I know that three of the touchdowns were scored in the final few minutes, I'll consider that team a little over-stated.

If a team just lost a game where they had a good reason to lose (middle game of a sandwich, lost at a tough road stadium, etc.) I'll consider that team to be a little under-rated.

There are countless other examples that I'm looking for, but really what I'm trying to figure out is whether past success is sustainable. If a team can run and stop the run, that's almost always sustainable. If a team is relying on a passing game and a bend but don't break defense, that isn't going to be sustainable. In general, though, its the emotions of college football that I like the best..the sandwich games, the tough road games, the inevitable letdown after a big win. It's harder to find these situations in the pros, but in college they are everywhere...

How does a 'sandwich game' affect your choice when the team wins that game - and secondly, when it loses that game. Where do you think the pointspread is right or wrong after those two situations?

If a team is 'fresh off a blowout at home', what would you do in the same situation of a blowout win on the road? What value do you have for spreads on these?


:shake:

 

[G-Man]

Sure. I think the best example for me would be Uconn last year. After seeing how they were playing (in particular against the spread) after the first couple of weeks I started playing them as they were getting no respect. If memory serves me right, they finished 7-2 or 6-3 the last 9 games ATS. This is a team that flew WAY beneath my radar and I was not considering a team to follow hadn't I been looking at the stats mentioned. As you know, it happens every year. A few years ago it was Rutgers, then Syracuse and Navy.

Mags. OK. What in the pointspread, did you justify to make a bet on them. Not because they had covered a few, - but more what I am asking is, - how did you know the spread was right or wrong for or against UConn for each game. What did you use to measure the spread being in your favor?

:shake:

 

[TroyStacks]

bowl games have always been money for me simply take the dog of +7 or better and you win except the first owl game where you take the heavy favorite.

 

[JPicks]

So G-Man what's your strategy?

 

[RambleOn]

One factor that I would like to mention is revenge.

And yes, I'll give an example from last year.

In the opening game of 06', Cal traveled to Tennessee as 3 pt favorites and got demolished 35-18. At one point late in the third quarter, Tennessee was winning 35-0. California went on to lose only 2 more games and finish at 10-3 on the season. You know they were pissed opening the year in that fashion.

Last year, the tables were turned, as Tennessee traveled to Cal in both teams season opener, Cal being a -7 favorite. I remember a lot of people jumping on Tennessee because they thought a touchdown was a gift. Not so fast. Tennessee had lost some players in the offseason and was younger at the cornerback and safety positions, starting two sophomores and a junior if memory serves me correctly. Cal's offense was high-flying: they had averaged something like 40 ppg game in 06, and their recievers had a distinct advantage over the Cal secondary. Plus, it was the opening game of the season, and Cal wanted their revenge.

I had been waiting for the game for a month and hammered Cal -7. Cal covered, winning 45-31.

Just one instance of how revenge and mismatches can combine for a great betting opportunity.

:shake:

 

[G-Man]

One factor that I would like to mention is revenge.

And yes, I'll give an example from last year.

In the opening game of 06', Cal traveled to Tennessee as 3 pt favorites and got demolished 35-18. At one point late in the third quarter, Tennessee was winning 35-0. California went on to lose only 2 more games and finish at 10-3 on the season. You know they were pissed opening the year in that fashion.

Last year, the tables were turned, as Tennessee traveled to Cal in both teams season opener, Cal being a -7 favorite. I remember a lot of people jumping on Tennessee because they thought a touchdown was a gift. Not so fast. Tennessee had lost some players in the offseason and was younger at the cornerback and safety positions, starting two sophomores and a junior if memory serves me correctly. Cal's offense was high-flying: they had averaged something like 40 ppg game in 06, and their recievers had a distinct advantage over the Cal secondary. Plus, it was the opening game of the season, and Cal wanted their revenge.

I had been waiting for the game for a month and hammered Cal -7. Cal covered, winning 45-31.

Just one instance of how revenge and mismatches can combine for a great betting opportunity.

:shake:

Thats a great point, as these were two high-profile teams with good programs and that makes for a serious motivational factor especially when the line was set up to allow sucker bets on Tenn.

"7" Is the biggest number posted on games with obvious betting habits, that bettors usually lose 62% of the time or more, as Vegas gets lop-sided action and wins these so often.

They were hammered with Tenn bettors all day - and took it with a smile as they new this was a big revenue win for them. That line never flinched a bit - and closed just as it opened...

 

[G-Man]

Hey Seabass - ya out there? left some questions for you on the last post you had.

Anyone else have some capping thoughts? :shake:

 

[JPicks]

Hey Seabass - ya out there? left some questions for you on the last post you had.

Anyone else have some capping thoughts? :shake:

So G-Man what's your strategy?

:shake:

 

[biggoob]

I know it was already said but there are 3-4 seasons inside the season. i really enjoy watching teams improve over the season due to practice routines. espesically at the qb and o-line positions. looking back on the line set with teams who have freshman/soph's which improve thier skills and increase thier confidence over the 4 months of practice and games really change the perception of the line and outcome of the scores by bowl time. not that my input is valued but i will try to articulate this better and repost because the game really does slow down for the young player as the season progresses.

 

[G-Man]

Quote By Blue Chip."Sounds odd, right? Recorded 28-17 last yr (22-12 on sides, 6-5 on totals) so I cannot complain about hitting 62%, and I am actually worried about regressing this yr. But, by only placing 45 bets I feel as though I am not maximizing my profitability.I have not documented it, but I think my leans would be profitable hitting between 53-55% and offering a bunch more plays. I just don't know if I will trust my leans enough to bet them to give myself more bets."

What is different about capping your 'leans' from your plays?
__________________

 

[Seabass]

How does a 'sandwich game' affect your choice when the team wins that game - and secondly, when it loses that game. Where do you think the pointspread is right or wrong after those two situations?

If a team is 'fresh off a blowout at home', what would you do in the same situation of a blowout win on the road? What value do you have for spreads on these?


:shake:

First off I apologize for not responding sooner...you've probably seen me fairly active in the baseball forum, as I've been trying to finally handicap baseball properly.

When a team loses a sandwich game (or performs under expectation...maybe a nail biter win over a lousy team, or something like that...I generally think that team becomes a little undervalued in the following week. They were looking ahead and got a wake up call that can only help them. When a team WINS a sandwich game in convincing fashion, I don't really make anything of it.

When I talked about the blowout thing, I meant it generally - didn't really care if they were at home or on the road. What I care more about is how they blew a team out. If you blow a team out because they don't convert a single 3rd down, I'm impressed. If you blow a team out though because you scored 3 tds in the 4th quarter when they were just chucking up passes trying to come back, I'm not very impressed by that. I guess my point is that I want to find the games that were closer than the score would indicate...and the games that were farther.

 

[Blue_Chip]

What is different about capping your 'leans' from your plays?

More stringent requirements, which is how it is supposed to be. Haha! I guess it is just my inner junkie wanting to play more than I do.