The Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions Official Discussion Thread (BAR vs LEX)

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Sunday afternoon in Week #15 features one of the most anticipated matchups this season as the Buffalo Bills invade Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions.
This is the Superbowl preview that America NEEDS and several of the CTG members would love to have. The Detroit and Buffalo fanbases are represented quite well here at CTG and hopefully we can have some great discussions about this game.
Huge game for both teams --

The Bills basically have their division wrapped up but are vying for HFA still. Despite the 2-game deficit to the Chiefs, they own the H2H tiebreaker. Also at stake is the 2nd seed for which they are currently tied with the Steelers.

Detroit plays in the toughest division in football and is battling for their division and the #1 seed and bye in the playoffs.

The venue will be Ford Field where Detroit has won 14 of 17 games these last 2 seasons (including playoffs).

Injuries have been mounting for the Lions as of late. There is a chance they will have a few of these guys back on Sunday though. More on that as we receive confirmation.

The line is 1.5 - 54.5 currently.

I think anyone with a pulse knew that 53 that was posted on Sunday night would only continue to rise.

As a Lions fan, here are my initial talking points:

1. Lions versus running QB's has been an issue

2. The injury situation

3. A much-needed 10 days of rest since the 3 games in 12 days.

4. The importance of this game vs the final 3 games

Simply put, the Lion's defense has struggled under this regime over the last few years. I do think they have improved somewhat since last year, but this is a real concern for the next 6-7 weeks.

Injuries are part of the game, but no team has had this sort of rash in the league this year.

The NFL put GB and DET in a 3-game in 12-day situation. Ridiculous. Yes, well-rested now but another key point here is...

Detroit had a BYE in Week #5. This has been a long haul!

For what it's worth, Buffalo had their BYE in Week #12

The last point is big to me -- potential tiebreakers for the #1 seed. Philadelphia and Detroit do not play this year, so if they finish with the same record, the tiebreaker is the conference record (next would be common games -- this flips if for the division). Simply put, the last 3 games are more important than this one. They are all important, but if the Lions are to lose one, let it be this one. Plus, that sets up a nice story in February.

So, let us get down to capping this game. I know that the members here will be active with props on this game -- no doubt.

Buffalo @Lexington 125 @DOUBLEUP4LIFE vs Detroit @HUNT @misschung @jk16 @Jeffeo @TenPin832 @MIWest @The Farm etc...

I know I am missing a few names each way, but the point is made....

Fun game, let's make some $$$$
 
Cmon Bills!!! #flyeaglesfly.


In all seriousness though, very interesting game with Buffalo coming off the loss to LAR, and Detroit coming off the hard fought victory over GB. Initial lean is Detroit unfortunately
 
Agree on your 4 points as the 1st thing that comes to mind is the running QB issue.
Long time consuming scoring drives by Detroit would be a key in helping that some.
Initially liked the spot of Detroit on extra rest coupled with Buffalo on back2back road games coming back from west coast,historically a tough task, but betting wise better if they would've won that game.
Betting wise my thoughts are Detroit 1st half and Buffalo 2nd half and no way I could take the under.
Should be a fun game to watch
 
TenPin832 said:
Agree on your 4 points as the 1st thing that comes to mind is the running QB issue.
Long time consuming scoring drives by Detroit would be a key in helping that some.
Initially liked the spot of Detroit on extra rest coupled with Buffalo on back2back road games coming back from west coast,historically a tough task, but betting wise better if they would've won that game.
Betting wise my thoughts are Detroit 1st half and Buffalo 2nd half and no way I could take the under.
Should be a fun game to watch
Click to expand...
Good stuff.

With regards to the total, this was going to be a public total all the way....

How does it stay under? A moving clock. Watching the Rams on Sunday afternoon I was excited watching the Rams success in the first half running the ball. That subsided a bit in the 2h but game script turned to a wilder game to be honest. Either way, Detroit can help the defense by running that ball a lot.

I can see the scenario you lay out between halves.

This is a buckle up game -- can't wait.
 
Interesting prop bet kind of tied to this game:

1st time SB winner this year: -110
Previous SB winner this year: -130

So you get basically get Det, Buff, and Minnesota are the 3 non-winners who are currently under 20-1 in the futures at -110

Vs: KC, Philly, Balt, Pitts, GB

Just food for thought.
 
CPA-hole said:
Interesting prop bet kind of tied to this game:

1st time SB winner this year: -110
Previous SB winner this year: -130

So you get basically get Det, Buff, and Minnesota are the 3 non-winners who are currently under 20-1 in the futures at -110

Vs: KC, Philly, Balt, Pitts, GB

Just food for thought.
Click to expand...
Quite interesting!
 
Really can't wait for this game!

Without getting too much into last week the Rams were able to exploit the Bill's weaknesses defensively way too easily. To me if you have 2 top tier wrs, an above average run game and a qb that is good vs zone the Bills will struggle.

The D line has been mediocre all season but lw they couldn't get close to Stafford. Didn't matter if they blitzed or not he wasn't getting touched. Rams were killing them with jet sweeps and motion, Miami had success doing the same vs Buff. It was pointed out by former center Eric Wood on talk radio the Rams were running jet sweeps at the dlineman who typically are in a 3 point stance since it's harder to stop coming from that stance. Every time AJ Epinesa was in they were running right at him, then ended up getting some huge plays to Puka off play action from the same motions.

Now I will say I think the D has been over performing all season- what was it something like 12 straight games forcing a turnover. They were due for a little regression but even normally solid players had terrible games. Taron has been as steady a slot corner as you can get and he played terribly. Milano looked lost. Rams wrs made a bunch of insane catches too but the way Stafford picked apart the zone was surgical.

Now we get Goff who is great with play action, two monster rbs and great rec core....

Buffalo ended up only allowing 3.3 ypc lw but couldn't get off the field. I think the Lions might just try to run the same types of pre snap motions and try to keep Buffalo off balance. If the run game is working well to start the Bills could be in trouble, but if they can't pressure Goff they're losing this game.

Have to keep an eye out for Rasul Douglas who didn't practice yesterday along with ss Rapp. No Rasul would mean Ingram plays more which could also be exploited by detriot.
 
Offensively it's hard to find a problem with Buffalo. Allen is playing out of his mind. I understand game flow last week caused them to pretty much throw out the run game but they will need it here if they want to keep the D fresh. On paper it looks to me like both teams should want to control TOP and keep the run game going.... could lend itself to the under but I want no part of it haha. Could easily see a lower scoring game with a bunch of running- also has the potential to be a 21+ pt quarter mixed in there so I don't think I can endorse an under wager. 2 offenses that can explode even if the game starts slow.
 
I think Amon-Ra could have a big game.

Puka and Kupp are #7 & #22 in YAC

Jameson & St Brown are #9 & #18

Shakir is #2 in the league behind Chase with almost 30 less catches that's insane.

Tend to think both Lion's rbs rush lines are high, not to say they don't get there but I don't love them. Gibbs longest rush likely in play.

Shakir rec over/yards over will be getting a look.
 
B.A.R. said:
Man, this is a great 2 TV afternoon.

The battle of Pennsylvania and this one simultaneously!
Click to expand...
The question is whether to go with the YoutubeTV multiview showing the two games simultaneously or to let Redzone do the channel flipping and toss in some Bucs/Chargers and Colts/Broncos action in as well? Another two games with playoff implications. NFL should've flexed some of these games.
 
B.A.R. said:
This is the Superbowl preview that America NEEDS and several of the CTG members would love to have.
Click to expand...

Would love to see it, but I trust a potty-training toddler more than I do Josh Allen getting by the Chiefs to get to the Super Bowl. I don’t care if Patrick Mahomes only has Wes Welker to throw to, I just don’t ever see it happening.
 
Lions getting some guys tomorrow...

Should help a bit.

Alternative helmet/jerseys + the league allowed them to paint logo at midfield + end zones to go along with the alternates.

Should be fun!!
 
emg2525 said:
Would love to see it, but I trust a potty-training toddler more than I do Josh Allen getting by the Chiefs to get to the Super Bowl. I don’t care if Patrick Mahomes only has Wes Welker to throw to, I just don’t ever see it happening.
Click to expand...
Of all the things to not trust about this team you choose Josh Allen??? Hilarious.

lack of a dominant pass rusher
lack of penetration by interior d line
missed tackles
ingame coaching decisions
shaky kicker
injuries/ shaky at ss

Allen has been and is the only reason the Bills are a good team.
 
Bills D thoughts

Rasul already ruled out
Rapp questionable
Hamlin questionable

JaMarcus Ingram will start opposite Benford... he had a pick 6 week 2 but is a defenite drop off vs Rasul (who had his worst game lw). Not great when you'll be seeing St Brown or Jameson. Cam Lewis will be seeing a bunch of time I'm sure with the possibility of both starting safeties out. There is big play potential for Detroit- especially if the run game gets going.

Now the Rams didn't really commit to running the ball because they were able to pick apart the zone so easily. Lions bring a different beast with the two headed monster at rb. I think Detroit might very well come out and pound the run to set up play action. I have a tough time seeing the Bills just completely shutting down the run. McD can coach up the d off a terrible game all he wants but without the personnel to execute I don't know how successful they can be. I can definitely see the Lions gashing Buffalo to start and getting some open looks in deep coverage because the D-line isn't getting enough pressure. I worry about our lbs losing Gibbs out of the backfield for a huge gainer because they are focused on LaPorta. Milano def looking rusty so far but he could be the one to makea splash play if he ever gets back up to game speed.

I like the Lions as a team but I never have trusted Goff completely. JMO but the way to beat Detroit is to force Goff to make a bad throw. I think it will take a bad Goff game for Buffalo to win today. That or Oliver/Rousseau start playing like they are capable of consistently.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Of all the things to not trust about this team you choose Josh Allen??? Hilarious.

lack of a dominant pass rusher
lack of penetration by interior d line
missed tackles
ingame coaching decisions
shaky kicker
injuries/ shaky at ss

Allen has been and is the only reason the Bills are a good team.
Click to expand...

I’m simply referencing him in a bubble over his career, not this team. He makes reckless mistakes in big moments and it obviously goes without saying, he hasn’t been able to beat the Chiefs when he needs to.

Additionally, we don’t make excuses for elite quarterbacks, whether that’s defense, kickers or whatever else it may be. They just find ways to win. This year could be different in the postseason, but historically speaking, Allen just hasn’t been able to do that yet. I’d love if he has the opportunity to do it again this year, though.
 
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Offense I expect Allen to have success throwing the ball. Lions have struggled lately with the pass and Allen has everyone but Kincaid healthy- looks like Kincaid plays but I wonder how much to what extent. Now if Reader was out again I would be loving some rbs props. I think now Josh will be looking for quick passes early on to get in sinc,

I was dead wrong lw with props because the game script was completely thrown off. Ray Davis to me still has value at TD +600 he was running wide open on a play Allen ended up running forever on. However to me the best rb prop is Cook rush & rec o66.5. GTFOH! after lw 6 carries and the fact the Bills D can't get off the field he's getting 12+ carries. McD wants a ground game and most will bet on Allen tush yds this week. I think it comes from rb#1 today. With Keon back it's tough for me to try and see which wr gets targeted. Cooper o46.5 looks good as does Shakir o4.5 catches. My concern is if Mack/keon get more time because the run game is going well and they are the better blockers.

I think a Keon rec yds over 32.5 & td parlay makes sense at +375.

So far the only wager I have in is Bills tt o13.5.

leans

Cook rush & rec yds o66.5

Allen passing yds o257.5

Amon Ra TD-114

Amon Ra rec yds o70.5

Gibbs rec yds o21.5
 
McDermott is a defensive coach so lw was an embarrassment for him even before the bad coaching decisions ingame. I would love to think he coaches the D up and they force 2 turnovers. That being said with the current state and injuries I cannot trust them to completely shut down an offense like the Lions

Both teams have the ability to keep the d off balance and both teams have play makers everywhere.
 
Mcdummy is possibly the most overrated NFL coach of all time. He flat out sucks when the game is on the line in the last 2 minutes. SUCKS at making defensive adjustments vs good offenses. The worst at clock management I've ever seen ...


Anyways

GO BILLS 💙
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
Mcdummy is possibly the most overrated NFL coach of all time. He flat out sucks when the game is on the line in the last 2 minutes. SUCKS at making defensive adjustments vs good offenses. The worst at clock management I've ever seen ...


Anyways

GO BILLS 💙
Click to expand...
You must have forgotten about the gambler on the other side who single handedly cost the Lions a SB appearance in the championship game last season.
 
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