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The 2025 Masters Tournament Discussion Thread

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
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gps_3 said:
If not this year for Rory, when?
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Basically.

I posted this elsewhere but this is, BY FAR, the best golf that Rory has played in the first 3 months in his CAREER.

I do think that The Open is the one he wins this year. Fitting spot in the rotar.
 
Reno's outrights so far....

All of these played earlier, better prices available...

Dechambeau +1800 (PPH) full unit
Dechambeau+2000 (MGM) half unit
Zalatoris +3300 (MGM) half unit
M.W. Lee +8000 (PPH) one/third unit

I'll attach the last two. I had a hundo to play with at a casino trip and decided to throw a few bucks on physical tickets. I really like Bryson to win a major this year, again. Will Z is brutal value and honestly I was looking for someone over 3000 there. He should be 5000 right now. He was 'okay' at Genesis, Bay Hill and The Players (top 20 to 30th).

So, I definitely don't advise any bets on Will Z. But I played it so will post.

MW bet was posted last week.

Initial Bryson bet was in January. The number is readily available.

Bryson I like. A lot. This year in general.

Otherwise, I'll look for value in tournament. If I can more than 20-1 on Collin that's likely a bet as well.

Luddy an obvious stalk.

Rory n Scottie with slower starts are stalks.

Spieth looks much better with the wrist injury finally healed. I'd love to see it!

Tony has had a weird year. The FOMO effect is real here and at some point he's gonna win one major. Probably only one for the career, but it'll happen. Just, when?

What's everyone's thoughts on Wyndbag? I think I bet him last year and he missed the cut. He has a great price. He drives me nuts though!

Anyways, some early thoughts and a few outrights.

I know the hole in one prop value is dead. We'll see what else we can find next week!

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I could be wrong, but Wyndham plays that high sweeping fade(slice) off the tee and I don't think that plays all that well at Augusta. The fairways are generous enough, but some of those windows are pretty tight and if the fairways are their normal firmness, he can get in some bad spots. And while I think he's a pretty good putter, if you aren't on the right parts of those greens, Ben Crenshaw would have some trouble. And they can definitely get in your head and Clark still battles his on course emotions a little bit
 
I'll be on the ground on Monday if we don't get rained out. I'll try to get some close up intel on who's striking it well.

I'm starting my OAD prep (actually have to pick 2), and it's hard at first glance to not look straight at OWGR #'s 1 and 2. I haven't seen any odds yet, but maybe Xander could have a little extra value? He has a great record there, and has gotten over the hump for winning majors. I'm also looking at some LIV guys since I only have 4 opportunities to use them. I used to think Bryson was a bad fit for Augusta, but last year showed he can be competitive there. I like him more at Quail Hollow, but I could see investing in him next week in some form or fashion. Rahm and Koepka always have my attention in majors, and Cam Smith does at Augusta. Will have to check in with the stats guys to see how their form is looking. Might tune in a little to Doral as well
 
gps_3 said:
I could be wrong, but Wyndham plays that high sweeping fade(slice) off the tee and I don't think that plays all that well at Augusta. The fairways are generous enough, but some of those windows are pretty tight and if the fairways are their normal firmness, he can get in some bad spots. And while I think he's a pretty good putter, if you aren't on the right parts of those greens, Ben Crenshaw would have some trouble. And they can definitely get in your head and Clark still battles his on course emotions a little bit
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Great points
 
No inside info from me. Only got inside the gates for an hour or so before the weather got us. Saw Ludvig put it in the water on 12 to the Sunday pin location.
 
Thanks for the links/data big guy. Very helpful in breaking down the field.

Starting to shop lines / plays- Every book has their own specials / boosts / bet & get / no sweat etc. Shop around, seeing some significant discrepancies in market prices and a lot of boosts / no sweat plays.

DK- Allows parlays of top X finishes (ties paid), not limited to stock top X finish parlays. Great to boost odds with other sports until Thursday.
FD- Generally competitive lines, can't parlay top x finishes. Unreasonable and random limits.
MGM- limited on offerings but with the Masters, has opened up more plays. ER top X (ties paid) can be parlayed.
Betrivers & Fanatics- limited options maybe some decent promos but with limited max bets.
 
laopadak said:
Thanks for the links/data big guy. Very helpful in breaking down the field.

Starting to shop lines / plays- Every book has their own specials / boosts / bet & get / no sweat etc. Shop around, seeing some significant discrepancies in market prices and a lot of boosts / no sweat plays.

DK- Allows parlays of top X finishes (ties paid), not limited to stock top X finish parlays. Great to boost odds with other sports until Thursday.
FD- Generally competitive lines, can't parlay top x finishes. Unreasonable and random limits.
MGM- limited on offerings but with the Masters, has opened up more plays. ER top X (ties paid) can be parlayed.
Betrivers & Fanatics- limited options maybe some decent promos but with limited max bets.
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Appreciate all of this.

Another thing everyone should check with their books is dead heat rules. I know their was a controversy with maybe DK? .. last year.
 
B.A.R. said:
Another thing everyone should check with their books is dead heat rules. I know their was a controversy with maybe DK? .. last year.
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I know I had a few plays last year where dead heat wasn't defined on the page or in bet slip but did apply once I won. Think probably due to complaints, these U.S. books are getting better at defining the bet beforehand. General rules of thumb for me-

If it's not clearly marked as dead heat, it probably is and will be graded as such.
If the odds are better than other shops, it's probably dead heat.

Personally I pass on all dead heat plays, simply isn't worth it and odds drop sharply when ties are applied.
 
English -265 v. Couples rd.1 is an excellent parlay partner if you ask me. Gonna have it parlayed with some MLB today.
 
gps_3 said:
After reading that Homa hit 250+ balls on the range yesterday searching for his swing, I felt pretty good about adding Homa to MC (-160)
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He's so brutal right now.

The announcement of kid #2 checks out yesterday.
 
B.A.R. said:
The only problem with missed cut props here...

Already a handful guaranteed to miss.

92 man field.
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Yeah I didn't go heavy on it or anything. But with pretty benign conditions expected, I'm thinking he is going to have to put up two pretty decent rounds to be in the top 50 and ties by Friday evening
 
Finally hit some MLB after missing for past few days. Lots of ammo to fire this week, hoping to hit the mark. GL this week

Henley & English to make cut +105 5u (Fanatics)
Adds-
 
B.A.R. said:
Reno's outrights so far....

All of these played earlier, better prices available...

Dechambeau +1800 (PPH) full unit
Dechambeau+2000 (MGM) half unit
Zalatoris +3300 (MGM) half unit
M.W. Lee +8000 (PPH) one/third unit

I'll attach the last two. I had a hundo to play with at a casino trip and decided to throw a few bucks on physical tickets. I really like Bryson to win a major this year, again. Will Z is brutal value and honestly I was looking for someone over 3000 there. He should be 5000 right now. He was 'okay' at Genesis, Bay Hill and The Players (top 20 to 30th).

So, I definitely don't advise any bets on Will Z. But I played it so will post.

MW bet was posted last week.

Initial Bryson bet was in January. The number is readily available.

Bryson I like. A lot. This year in general.

Otherwise, I'll look for value in tournament. If I can more than 20-1 on Collin that's likely a bet as well.

Luddy an obvious stalk.

Rory n Scottie with slower starts are stalks.

Spieth looks much better with the wrist injury finally healed. I'd love to see it!

Tony has had a weird year. The FOMO effect is real here and at some point he's gonna win one major. Probably only one for the career, but it'll happen. Just, when?

What's everyone's thoughts on Wyndbag? I think I bet him last year and he missed the cut. He has a great price. He drives me nuts though!

Anyways, some early thoughts and a few outrights.

I know the hole in one prop value is dead. We'll see what else we can find next week!

View attachment 95407View attachment 95408
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You know what I decided tonight...

I can make cases for value on so many guys. Since I've hit several outrights so far I decided to spread it out a bit so I don't get FOMO ;)

My best bets are...(Of the futures)

Collin
Bryson
Lowry

Adding to this post ...

Collin 1300
Lower 3500
Bobby Mac 4500
Sergio 7500
Straka 5500
Finau 11500
Blake Koepka 3300



Some prop bets -- all at BOL

Highest score on 1 hole OVER 9.5 +115
LIV Player in Top 3 -175
Hole in one on 16 +100
Lowest Score UNDER 64.5 +125

64 is the max on this course and a good chance no one breaks 65. But, it's possible this week. I'll take this at plus money.

Hole in one on 16 used to be anywhere from +175 to +250 in years past (I believe). The last two years this dropped significantly as they have become more commonplace.

I wanted -200 for top 3 LIV and got it.

Yeah, I think we see a blow-up hole from someone. Think about multiple water balls on the 15th.

All fun props!

Combination of PPH and BOL.

BOL Spieth # is damn good but I've bet my 6 units I want to risk here in total.

I'll watch on sidelines for matchups until Friday as well as over/unders unless the afternoon wave has an edge in totals.
 
I'm going into this year with the motto of "have fun with the tournament".

This is a Scottie tournament until proven otherwise. Certainly there are 20 guys that can win it. I just hope we have a handful in contention on Sunday.

Rory or Spieth winning would be awesome for the sport.

I feel like if he can avoid the Sunday Scaries that Collin is in the best position. I have over a unit on his #.

Usually I have some top nationalities bets but nothing is there this year value wise. Goal will be to come out even with my individual in play selections and perhaps hit one of these outrights for a nice week.
 
One last thing -- my big stalk is Jon Rahm.

Waiting in the wings on that one purposely.
 
Rd.1 Masters:

An over Graysermam / English over Couples +143 3u (DK)

Add- An over 3.5 birds -135 3u (DK)
Rors to eagle rd.1 +450 1u (MGM)
DeChambro to eagle rd.1 +500 1u (MGM)
JT to eagle rd.1 +550 1u (MGM)

Add- Taylor over 72.5 +115 3u (DK), poor form/history and not the Canadian to compete this week IMO.
 
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OG Couples & Langer hanging in there. Secretly rooting for Cabrera to make the cut / do decently. Was always a fan and who doesn't like a convicted criminal hanging with the class of ANGC.

Who in the late wave going low?
 
Kudos to Justin Rose for his 7 under & how about Fred Couples, 1 under at the age of 65. Seems like every time i choose Morikawa, he gets there where he needs to be, then he blows up. Same today, 3 under then bogeys 3 of the last 4 holes. If Rory keeps driving the ball like he is doing today, he is going to be tough to beat. A lot of golf to be played.
 
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