Thanksgiving Week Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
7-5-1 last week which bring the season total to 86-83 with a few pushes. The dream of a worthwhile betting experience for the year is up in flames, but we'll hope to make some money this week to end on a positive note. Then we transition to the bowls where we spend the next few weeks trying to figure out who's going to actually play vs who feels as though they have a .00001% chance of getting drafted which gives them license to identify themselves as superior to their teammates.

Typically, I start the week with a list of about 22-25 games that I like but need to whittle down to a reasonable number to write up. This week, my initial process identified 37 games, so it's been more difficult that normal, but at least I won't be searching high and wide for games worthy of a write up.

Oh yeah... Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours. I don't mean to get preachy, but it helps me to remember what we have to be thankful for. Seriously. If we stay cognizant of that, our outlook leans positive, and that is what ultimately leads to being happy. We're only on this Earth for a finite amount of time...might as well make the best of it.

Ole Miss ML LOSS
Missouri +3 WIN
Florida State -9.5 LOSS Noles were due for clunker and they delivered.
Clemson -14.5 LOSS See Ya Dabo. SC offense apparently for real. The last 9 weeks were the aberration, not the one week last week.
Rutgers +14.5 LOSS Schiano 2.0 now 8-3 ATS as a conference dog. After that performance today, they can cover 10 more in a row and I'm not interested.
Western Kentucky -7.5 LOSS. Willie Taggart's fireable offense was enough to beat me.
Louisville +3 LOSS I'm convinced Louisville only exists to ruin me.
Duke +3.5 WIn Hey, look at that!
UAB -17.5 LOSS Bill Clark ain't walkin through that door.
Auburn +22 PUSH
UTEP +17.5 WIN
Iowa State +10 LOSS Matt Campbell finally loses as a conference DD dog. I blame the oddsmakers for not setting the line high enough (needed +48)
Texas State +6 LOSS I searched to the ends of the earth (and FBS) for this loser. Maybe next week I'll give you Elon over Furman and they'll fail by 30 pts
Notre Dame +4.5 LOSS ND got bullied by a bunch of ballet dancers.
Pitt -6.5 WIN Narduzzi like clockwork. Miami v FBS like clockwork also.

4-10-1

1. @Ole Miss ML(-125) v Mississippi State: (Thursday) I was surprised to find a money line as low as -125 when most of the lines are hovering around the -2 range for Ole Miss. The line opened higher but has fallen, and I presume the reason for that is the speculation that Lane Kiffin is about to jump ship for Auburn. He's claiming that there's no truth to that rumor, but who would be surprised if he left on Friday morning? I wouldn't, despite my own opinion that I would stick around in Oxford if I was him. Having said all that, even if it's true, I don't necessarily think it will put a damper on the Ole Miss effort in this game. These teams have an intense dislike for each other, and don't need any incentive or pleading or coach intentions to keep them from max effort on Thursday night. There was a pretty widespread sentiment(myself included) that Ole Miss was somewhat fraudulent this year and that certainly has been proven to be the case over the past few weeks, starting with their second half no show in Baton Rouge 4 weekends ago. This week however, I think the matchup sets up well for the Rebels. I really don't find any specific area in which I would give Mississippi State the edge, but I find several areas that i think Ole Miss should be able to have a significant edge over the Bulldogs, most notably in the Ole Miss run offense against the MSU run defense, and on 3rd down on both sides of the ball. Even though Ole Miss was out of the game early last week against Arkansas, they still rushed for over 400 yards(with 2 RBs going over 200 apiece), and MSU is barely among the top 100 in yards per carry against. These rivalry games have been a struggle for Mike Leach, as he dropped 7 of 8 in the Apple Cup and has lost both of the Egg Bowls he's involved with against Kiffin. I typically like backing Leach when he's a dog, but in this case, the spread is so thin, the situation doesn't really line up with a typical underdog scenario. I think the Rebels take this one at home, as it looks like the Bulldog rush d will have all kinds of problems containing Judkins and Evans.
 
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2. @Missouri +3 v Arkansas: Kudos are due to the Razorbacks for their rocking chair game last week and their apparent progress on defense, but then last week happened, and the Razorbacks gave up more than 400 yards rushing and 700 yards overall. And here I thought the Arkansas defense was showing some real resolve. The difference between these 2 defenses is profound, and evident in the numbers for Missouri. They are stout against the run and on 3rd down, two of the areas that Arkansas is focused on offensively. Although Brady Cook has been frustrating to watch at times, this is a defense that he can exploit...well, anyone can exploit this Arkansas defense who ranked worse than 115th in every area up until this point, rush defense, overall yards per play, pass defense and 3rd down conversions. Also, Eli Drinkwitz is one win from bowl eligibility, and that is a big deal for his staff. The Razorbacks had an emotional game last week, it's going to be a tough task for them to give the kind of effort necessary to overcome this defense. Good spot for the Tigers, and it's a bad spot for Arkansas, who really doesn't have much to play for after that performance against Ole MIss.
 
3. Florida State -9.5 v Florida: It looks like the oddsmakers are finally starting to catch up with this Florida State team a little bit, as this line is approaching 10(which I would also lay). This is a slight departure over their previous few weeks, where they were laying 7 against mediocre(Syracuse) to bad teams(Miami) and the games were over before the 8 minute mark of the first quarter. Now this week they are laying 10 at home to a mediocre to decent Florida team. I guess things are starting to progress, but this is still not enough for how good this Seminole team has looked in recent weeks. It's a matchup nightmare for the Gators who are mostly terrible on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 100th or worse everywhere and 127th on 3rd down. FSU also has the edge everywhere when Florida has the ball other than the Gator rush offense vs the Noles rush defense, and FSU is pretty good there also. I believe we would be talking about Florida State for a playoff berth had they been healthy earlier in the year when they were completely banged up on the offensive and defensive lines during the stretch that hey played Wake, Clemson and NC State. They are healthy now and have shown how good they are in the last 4 weeks, having outgained people by 270 yards per game. I don't think much changes this week. If I was a power ratings guy, I'm guessing I'd have FSU in my top 4 or 5, so backing FSU remans a no brainer for me this week.
 
4. @Clemson -14.5 v South Carolina: We all saw what South Carolina did to Tennessee last week, and I have to say that I'm not totally surprised that Spencer Rattler had a competent game, but I was surprised that he and the Gamecock offense looked THAT good, because there wasn't any indication that some thing like that was coming. Consider: The week prior, the Gamecock offense totaled 237 yards and mustered only 6 points against the Florida defense that I just trashed in the write up before this one. That's a defense that can't stop a persistent nosebleed and ranks in outside the top 100 in just about every category. They also have in the past 4 weeks failed to crack 300 total yards against Texas A&M(another bad defense) and Missouri, who held them to only 206 yards. Defensively, the Gamecocls rank 113th against the run, which is welcome news to a Clemson team that wants to run with Shipley and Mafa, and 110th on 3rd down, which sets them up for a rough time against the Clemson offense which has been able to convert 3d downs at a decent clip(10th). Defensively, this Clemson isn't the all time elite squad that we anticipated, but they are still one of the better defenses in the country, ranking in the top 20 or close to it in almost all instances. The fact that this is a rivalry games means it's very unlikely that the Gamecocks won't have the Tigers attention, and this is especially true after what they did last week on National TV. I'd rather be at 14 or less but this one is actually pushing 15 in most spots, so a 1/2 point to 14 is too rich. I think Clemson will handle the Cocks here, they have to have this game to keep their MNC hopes alive, and beating them by more than two TDs will be good for their profile.
 
5. Rutgers +14.5 @Maryland. The Terps are bowl eligible, so they don't need this one, and if there's one I'm sure of, Greg Schiano will not allow his people to be anything other than laser focused on the game at hand, and this is the last one for the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers is back in it's comfortable role, on the road as a dog, looking to end the year on a good note as they continue to build things under Schiano. Rutgers is very good stopping the pass, and if they can neutralize the MD run, I think Maryland might be in a bit of a sleepy spot. It's hard to see how they'll be motivated after last week's tough loss to OSU. Schiano is 8-2- as a road dog in conference since he came on in 2020. If Rutgers can muster up a couple scores, I think they'll cover this one.
 
Br@ssknux said:
5. Rutgers +14.5 @Maryland. The Terps are bowl eligible, so they don't need this one, and if there's one I'm sure of, Greg Schiano will not allow his people to be anything other than laser focused on the game at hand, and this is the last one for the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers is back in it's comfortable role, on the road as a dog, looking to end the year on a good note as they continue to build things under Schiano. Rutgers is very good stopping the pass, and if they can neutralize the MD run, I think Maryland might be in a bit of a sleepy spot. It's hard to see how they'll be motivated after last week's tough loss to OSU. Schiano is 8-2- as a road dog in conference since he came on in 2020. If Rutgers can muster up a couple scores, I think they'll cover this one.
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This does it...I wanted to and now I will. Best to you
 
6. Western Kentucky -7.5 @Florida Atlantic: The Hilltoppers were a trendy upset pick last week when they traveled to Auburn, but the Cadillac Williams mystique destroyed any chance that WKU would be able to catch the Tigers napping. Now the Toppers are back in a role more suited for them, a chance to bully another conference opponent that will have a hard time stopping their offense. Throughout the season, WKU has been a very balanced squad, and one of the most well rounded in the Group of 5. On a per play basis they are 13th on offense and 31st on defense, and they have been able to move the ball both on the ground with Kyle Robicheaux, who averages almost 7 yards per carry and QB Austin Reed who has a 38/8 ratio and averages more than 8 yards per attempt. Defensively, they rank high in coverage, and although the rank only 61st against the run, the only teams that have run effectively are Auburn(last week), UAB and UTSA, 3 squads who rank in the top 45 in rush offense. Offensively, FAU has made it's bones against the likes of Charlotte, FIU and SE Louisiana, with the rest of their performances being mediocre, all sub 400 yard outputs. WKU has done a good job taking care of business against teams they have advantages over, and I handicap this one with WKU edges all over the field. Ultimately, I don't see FAU getting many stops, and I don't think their offense has enough against a pretty good stop unit to keep up on the scoreboard.
 
Timh said:
Curious on your thoughts on Baylor/Texas?
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I was looking for a reason to play Baylor, and if I played it I would play Baylor, but Shapen has looked really bad lately. He's been bad enough that I was afraid Texas would dominate them and then do enough on offense to cover that number. Baylor has had a rough time getting off the field on 3rd downs as well, and it's been getting progressively worse. I don't trust Texas at all to cover that though, so if I had a gun to my head I'd take the points.
 
7. Louisville +3(-115) @Kentucky: I went against Kentucky last week mostly because of Georgia's affinity for covering as a road favorite and because I couldn't see any way in which this horseshit Kentucky offensive line could do anything with Georgia's defense. It turned out I was right, but I wasn't expecting Georgia's offense to be so vanilla, and that was my fault for not recognizing that Georgia didn't have much need to do anything other than get a win and get out of there. I don't think that will be the case this week with Louisville. It's a heated rivalry and Louisville has gotten their asses handed to them in this spot 3 years in a row. This year however, Louisville is going to have a major advantage on both lines of scrimmage. The OL issues for Kentucky are going to be as exaggerated as ever this week because Louisville appears to be about as bad a matchup as you can conjure up for them. They've been solid against the run, ranking 40th, but they've been elite at getting to the QB, ranking 3rd in sack rate, and the Kentucky OL is abysmal at protecting the QB, and Chris Rodriguez is pretty much on his own when he runs it, as almost all of his yards come after the first contact. On the other side of the ball, Kentucky gets no pressure on the quarterback, so even if Malik Cunningham doesn't play(and I think this line kind of assumes he won't) Brock Domann will at least not have to worry too much about being pressured. Louisville also runs it well, which is somewhat surprisingly a weakness for Kentucky's defense. Ultimately, I just see this one as a clear advantage for one of the teams in the trenches, and that team is catching points, so I'm a taker.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I was looking for a reason to play Baylor, and if I played it I would play Baylor, but Shapen has looked really bad lately. He's been bad enough that I was afraid Texas would dominate them and then do enough on offense to cover that number. Baylor has had a rough time getting off the field on 3rd downs as well, and it's been getting progressively worse. I don't trust Texas at all to cover that though, so if I had a gun to my head I'd take the points.
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My feeling was similar re Shapen, and I think Texas can throw on them. Baylor has to be let down after last week's crushing loss, but then again Texas needs a Kansas win tomorrow to help them. I passed on the game.
 
Br@ssknux said:
7-5-1 last week which bring the season total to 86-83 with a few pushes. The dream of a worthwhile betting experience for the year is up in flames, but we'll hope to make some money this week to end on a positive note. Then we transition to the bowls where we spend the next few weeks trying to figure out who's going to actually play vs who feels as though they have a .00001% chance of getting drafted which gives them license to identify themselves as superior to their teammates.

Typically, I start the week with a list of about 22-25 games that I like but need to whittle down to a reasonable number to write up. This week, my initial process identified 37 games, so it's been more difficult that normal, but at least I won't be searching high and wide for games worthy of a write up.

Oh yeah... Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours. I don't mean to get preachy, but it helps me to remember what we have to be thankful for. Seriously. If we stay cognizant of that, our outlook leans positive, and that is what ultimately leads to being happy. We're only on this Earth for a finite amount of time...might as well make the best of it.

1. @Ole Miss ML(-125) v Mississippi State: (Thursday) I was surprised to find a money line as low as -125 when most of the lines are hovering around the -2 range for Ole Miss. The line opened higher but has fallen, and I presume the reason for that is the speculation that Lane Kiffin is about to jump ship for Auburn. He's claiming that there's no truth to that rumor, but who would be surprised if he left on Friday morning? I wouldn't, despite my own opinion that I would stick around in Oxford if I was him. Having said all that, even if it's true, I don't necessarily think it will put a damper on the Ole Miss effort in this game. These teams have an intense dislike for each other, and don't need any incentive or pleading or coach intentions to keep them from max effort on Thursday night. There was a pretty widespread sentiment(myself included) that Ole Miss was somewhat fraudulent this year and that certainly has been proven to be the case over the past few weeks, starting with their second half no show in Baton Rouge 4 weekends ago. This week however, I think the matchup sets up well for the Rebels. I really don't find any specific area in which I would give Mississippi State the edge, but I find several areas that i think Ole Miss should be able to have a significant edge over the Bulldogs, most notably in the Ole Miss run offense against the MSU run defense, and on 3rd down on both sides of the ball. Even though Ole Miss was out of the game early last week against Arkansas, they still rushed for over 400 yards(with 2 RBs going over 200 apiece), and MSU is barely among the top 100 in yards per carry against. These rivalry games have been a struggle for Mike Leach, as he dropped 7 of 8 in the Apple Cup and has lost both of the Egg Bowls he's involved with against Kiffin. I typically like backing Leach when he's a dog, but in this case, the spread is so thin, the situation doesn't really line up with a typical underdog scenario. I think the Rebels take this one at home, as it looks like the Bulldog rush d will have all kinds of problems containing Judkins and Evans.
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You said it best up top Brass. Best to you and yours as well. I don't know if being thankful for the write ups counts in the grand scheme but.... Best of results to ya.
Pretty sure I used the word 'best' ad nauseam .
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. @Missouri +3 v Arkansas: Kudos are due to the Razorbacks for their rocking chair game last week and their apparent progress on defense, but then last week happened, and the Razorbacks gave up more than 400 yards rushing and 700 yards overall. And here I thought the Arkansas defense was showing some real resolve. The difference between these 2 defenses is profound, and evident in the numbers for Missouri. They are stout against the run and on 3rd down, two of the areas that Arkansas is focused on offensively. Although Brady Cook has been frustrating to watch at times, this is a defense that he can exploit...well, anyone can exploit this Arkansas defense who ranked worse than 115th in every area up until this point, rush defense, overall yards per play, pass defense and 3rd down conversions. Also, Eli Drinkwitz is one win from bowl eligibility, and that is a big deal for his staff. The Razorbacks had an emotional game last week, it's going to be a tough task for them to give the kind of effort necessary to overcome this defense. Good spot for the Tigers, and it's a bad spot for Arkansas, who really doesn't have much to play for after that performance against Ole MIss.
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With you on this Brassman. Home team series ta boot.
 
ronnie a said:
You said it best up top Brass. Best to you and yours as well. I don't know if being thankful for the write ups counts in the grand scheme but.... Best of results to ya.
Pretty sure I used the word 'best' ad nauseam .
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Thanks as always for the kind words Ronnie. You sir are a true gentleman.
 
Timh said:
My feeling was similar re Shapen, and I think Texas can throw on them. Baylor has to be let down after last week's crushing loss, but then again Texas needs a Kansas win tomorrow to help them. I passed on the game.
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Lol, good thing we laid off!!
 
Also, I can't imagine being on Utah State for anything significant. I threw a third of a unit on them +17 and could only laugh. Less than 2 minutes left in the game and Utah State has a shot at the outright. They turn it over on downs inside the 10, and then Boise QB runs it in for a 91 yard TD followed by a pick 6 by Utah State to lose the +17 cover. Can you imagine being on Boise -17 and thinking, "Well, I need two TDs here from my own 9 with a minute left and my team ahead by 5."? And then you get it!!
 
8. @Duke +3.5 v Wake: I've bet on Duke quite a bit this year but have stopped short of writing them up because I was afraid that the world would collapse on them, but Mike Elko has done a great job of really changing the attitude there and as a result the Blue Devils are 7-4. There really isn't any area that Duke is seriously deficient, and there are quite a few matchups in this game that I give the Blue Devils a significant edge against Wake. Duke QB Riley Leonard has been steady all year and should be able to move the chains against a Wake D that has had all kinds of trouble against the pass and at getting off the field on 3rd down. Wake(112th rush offense)also has no shot to run on Duke(22nd ranked D in yards per carry), so Elko will be able to scheme up to stop the Wake pass on those mesh exchanges. I handicap Duke as the better team overall, and if Wake gets a case of turnover-itis, which they have been susceptible to lately, I'll be in great shape getting points with what I see as a superior home dog. I've had terrible luck figuring out Wake this year, so if Hartman goes nuclear, buyer beware, but this Duke team has been steady and reliable all year.
 
9. UAB -17.5 @Louisiana Tech: Louisiana Tech has been one of the worst defenses in the country this year, having served as a turnstile for offenses as bad as FIU and Rice(both dropped 42 on the Bulldogs). It's a defense that ranks 123rd in yards per play against, 129th(!!) against the run and and 114th on 3rd down. Will UAB get to third down? It's debatable because they have been able to run on just about everyone, ranking 6th in the country in yards per rush, setting up one of the biggest mismatches you'll see all year. Also, the one weakness UAB has on defense is stopping the run, but La Tech can't run it to save their lives, ranking 121st in yards per rush. The one thing La Tech can do is throw the ball, but they won't be able to do that because it appears as though QB Parker McNeill will be out with a broken hand, and the drop off between him and backup Landry Lyddy(yes that's a football player's name) might be the biggest in FBS. Lyddy has put up pedestrian numbers against some of the worst pass defenses in college football(Charlotte and FIU). Even if McNeill was playing, UAB is a very good pass defense, ranking 27th in yards per pass attempt against and 21st in passer rating against. The line is a bit suppressed because UAB has lost 4 of 5, but this is the epitome of a bad matchup for La Tech. I'm never enthusiastic about laying points like this, but UAB should be able to take some frustrations out on the Bulldogs here.
 
10. Auburn +22 @ Alabama: Alabama is pretty much eliminated from any kind of post season activities that anyone on their team would care about, so even though it's the iron Bowl, you have to wonder what motivation they have other than the rivalry. With everything to play for last year, Auburn gave the outright win to them, and a lot of the same guys are involved in this one. Alabama has a lot of injury issues here as well. Bryce Young remains less than 100%, Jahmyr Gibbs is a question mark for this game, and tight end Cameron Latu, who is one of Young's favorite targets its also very questionable for this game. On the flip side, there is no questioning Auburn's motivation since Cadillac Williams took over for the happily fired Bryn Harsin. The Tigers have played great, most recently in a historically sleep inducing game with Western Kentucky that most teams would sleepwalk through. The Tigers pounded a good Hilltopper team in that one, and even when Harsin was calling the shots, the Tigers had one of the top pass defenses in the country, so it might be hard for Bama to connect on explosive plays, especially is Gibbs will be unavailable. I'll take 22 with the more motivated team that's playing for their coach and has some solid recent performances to hang their hats on.
 
11. UTEP +17.5(-112) @ UTSA: UTEP isn't a bad team. They're 5-6 and playing for a bowl and they have some pretty decent numbers to hang their hats on. They can run the ball pretty well, they convert 3rd downs and they are pretty good(35th) at getting off the field on 3rd down and pressuring the QB(40th in sac rate). The opponent is solid, but we've been here before. UTSA has a spot as the host in the CUSA title game locked up, much like they did at this time last year. Last year, in addition to that, they were also going for an undefeated regular season, so you would think they would have played their collective asses off. They did not, and head coach Jeff Traylor actually sat his starters in the second half and the Roadrunners got hammered by North Texas in the process despite being significant favorites in the game. This year, the only thing they are playing for is the CUSA title, so this game means nothing in the grand scheme of things. UTEP will be the more motivated team, and I can see UTEP being able to move the ball on the ground on the Roadrunners even if they were motivated. UTEP also has covered the last couple times these teams have met in San Antonio, so I can definitely see the Miners competing well into the second half in this one.
 
12. Iowa State +10 @TCU: In a perfect world I'd have a couple more points to take here, but double digits with Matt Campbell has proven to be more than enough in almost all cases in which he's catching points. First of all, on paper this one grades out only slightly above a total stalemate in TCU's favor, so I think there's line value on the Iowa State side. This Cyclone defense has been elite all year, ranking 8th in yards per play against, 5th against the run and 4th on 3rd down. Also, the last time Iowa State lost a road game by more than 10 points was in the middle of the 2018 season, and even in the worst season Campbell has had since his first year here, the Clones have hung with everyone. TCU also has been in dogfights all year, occasionally pulling away late in games, but usually only when a QB has been injured. I'm not predicting a win here for Iowa State, but clearly all the pressure will be on the Horned Frogs who have a trip to the playoff right there in front of them. The Frogs have played 10 consecutive weeks and have been in tough games pretty much every week. The aches and pains have added up and just about every skill guy is or recently has been on the injury report. If TCU takes care of business and drops the Cyclones by more than this spread, I'll tip my cap because 1. virtually nobody does that to Iowa State, and 2. the Frogs will have had significant success against a great defense.
 
13. @Texas State +6 v Louisiana Lafayette: It's been a tough year for LaLa, much tougher than they've had in recent years. They're 5-6, looking for bowl eligibility, but it's been a struggle because they've been poor on offense for pretty much the entire year. Just like in previous years, their strength is defense and they want to run the ball, but they can't throw it and they've only been mediocre running it, ranking 72nd in yards per rush. Texas State surprisingly has been stout on defense all year, ranking 40tj in yards per play, and they've been fantastic against the run, ranking 19th in yards per rush, and they've held all but 2 of their opponents to 3.0 yards per rush or less. I don't think LaLa will be able to run on them, and as a result, won't have any offensive success. Texas State has been among the worst offensive teams in the country, but that hasn't stopped them from being competitive in just about every game, including games against teams better than LaLa(Troy, Southern Miss,etc). They've also pulled off a home upset over Appy State, proving that they are indeed capable of more than just hanging in. Also, LaLa has lost outright in all 3 games they've been favored on the road, including as a 12 point favorite at UL Monroe and a 9 point favorite at Rice. This is definitely a game that Texas State can beat the number.
 
14. Notre Dame +4.5 @USC: If USC gets a bunch of turnovers again, negating their terrible defense, then they'll cover. But if they don't and the game is decided by actual scrimmaging rather than like last week when USC's best defense was Dorian Thompson Robinson's errant throws, Notre Dame should win this game outright. USC can't stop the run. They never stopped UCLA's last week, but the good thing about Notre Dame is that they know they don't want their Qb making silly throws and will be content to just pound it down USC's throats with Estime and Diggs. Also, this will be the best defense Caleb Williams has faced since they were pretty much stymied by Oregon State back in September, and Notre Dame will undoubtedly have a significant edge on both lines of scrimmage. The Irish have also been a cash register on the road, covering all of their true road games and all but one away from Notre Dame stadium. Notre Dame will be in trouble if they have to play from behind, but they are built to be able to get the lead and keep it against a finesse team like USC.
 
15. Pitt -6.5 @Miami: I can't see how this Miami offense, who struggles in every facet on that side of the ball will have any success whatsoever against a Pitt defense that routinely overpowers opposing offensive lines. The Panthers rank in the teens or better in every defensive category while Miami finds themselves below the top 100 in the same offensive categories. The Panthers should also have no problem throwing it on the Hurricanes, who rank 114th against the pass and 94th on 3rd down. Throw in that Miami is 8-14 ATS at home over the past 4 years and is 2-9 ATS this year while Pitt is now 11-1 ATS as a road dog since 2019.
 
Br@ssknux said:
14. Notre Dame +4.5 @USC: If USC gets a bunch of turnovers again, negating their terrible defense, then they'll cover. But if they don't and the game is decided by actual scrimmaging rather than like last week when USC's best defense was Dorian Thompson Robinson's errant throws, Notre Dame should win this game outright. USC can't stop the run. They never stopped UCLA's last week, but the good thing about Notre Dame is that they know they don't want their Qb making silly throws and will be content to just pound it down USC's throats with Estime and Diggs. Also, this will be the best defense Caleb Williams has faced since they were pretty much stymied by Oregon State back in September, and Notre Dame will undoubtedly have a significant edge on both lines of scrimmage. The Irish have also been a cash register on the road, covering all of their true road games and all but one away from Notre Dame stadium. Notre Dame will be in trouble if they have to play from behind, but they are built to be able to get the lead and keep it against a finesse team like USC.
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Simple, yet correct here.
 
Br@ssknux said:
14. Notre Dame +4.5 @USC: If USC gets a bunch of turnovers again, negating their terrible defense, then they'll cover. But if they don't and the game is decided by actual scrimmaging rather than like last week when USC's best defense was Dorian Thompson Robinson's errant throws, Notre Dame should win this game outright. USC can't stop the run. They never stopped UCLA's last week, but the good thing about Notre Dame is that they know they don't want their Qb making silly throws and will be content to just pound it down USC's throats with Estime and Diggs. Also, this will be the best defense Caleb Williams has faced since they were pretty much stymied by Oregon State back in September, and Notre Dame will undoubtedly have a significant edge on both lines of scrimmage. The Irish have also been a cash register on the road, covering all of their true road games and all but one away from Notre Dame stadium. Notre Dame will be in trouble if they have to play from behind, but they are built to be able to get the lead and keep it against a finesse team like USC.
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Nice analysis.
 
Br@ssknux said:
10. Auburn +22 @ Alabama: Alabama is pretty much eliminated from any kind of post season activities that anyone on their team would care about, so even though it's the iron Bowl, you have to wonder what motivation they have other than the rivalry. With everything to play for last year, Auburn gave the outright win to them, and a lot of the same guys are involved in this one. Alabama has a lot of injury issues here as well. Bryce Young remains less than 100%, Jahmyr Gibbs is a question mark for this game, and tight end Cameron Latu, who is one of Young's favorite targets its also very questionable for this game. On the flip side, there is no questioning Auburn's motivation since Cadillac Williams took over for the happily fired Bryn Harsin. The Tigers have played great, most recently in a historically sleep inducing game with Western Kentucky that most teams would sleepwalk through. The Tigers pounded a good Hilltopper team in that one, and even when Harsin was calling the shots, the Tigers had one of the top pass defenses in the country, so it might be hard for Bama to connect on explosive plays, especially is Gibbs will be unavailable. I'll take 22 with the more motivated team that's playing for their coach and has some solid recent performances to hang their hats on.
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Don't ya want em to just down it here and get outa dodge with the push??
 
At least you didn't have vandy +14. I got 22.5 with Auburn which helped salvage the day. Appreciate and love your write ups. Thanks
 
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