Thanksgiving Week Writeups and hopefully feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Thanks to some covers late last week I ended up 8-5-2 for the week which moves the 3 week record since I started back up to 23-15-2 (.6052). My bankroll hasn't really grown much due to my penchant for money line round robins that ALMOST pay off big, but at least I'm holding steady despite that, I hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving. Lots of fun games this weekend, like every year. I'll list the games here as I play them with the writeups further down in the thread.


Ole Miss +3 WIN
CMU -10 WIN
Texas Tech +10 LOSE
Washington -6.5 WIN
Appy St -10 WIN
Ohio State -7.5 WIN
Indiana -7 LOSE
Northwestern +7.5 WIN
Wake -3.5 LOSE
Wyoming +11 LOSE
Southern Miss +9.5 LOSE
Tennessee -23 LOSE
UAB -3 WIN
SMU -3 WIN
Notre Dame -17 WIN
Navy -8.5 WIN
Oklahoma State +14 LOSE
San Diego State +6 WIN
Cal PK WIN
Army +2.5 LOSE


TOTAL 12-8. SEASON POSTED TOTAL: 35-23 (.6034)

1. Ole Miss +3(-120) @ Mississippi State: When I first looked at this game, I figured that since Ole Miss has been so good on offense since their switch to John Rhys Plumlee at QB, this game would be lined either as a pick or with Ole Miss as a slight favorite. Now that I can get a full FG with somewhat reasonable juice, I'm grabbing the points with Ole Miss. Since Mississippi State has a slightly better record and is playing at home, that would probably explain their being favored here. However, in recent weeks, Ole Miss has been much more explosive on offense and much more competitive with better teams. Also, unless Mississippi State can run the ball and bully people on the ground, their offense will struggle, and this is a questionable matchup for them in that regard because Ole Miss's Achilles heel is pass defense, not run D, and you can make a case that their run D is actually quite a bit above average. Mississippi State will likely have to throw the ball to be effective, but I don't think that will be the case when Ole Miss has the ball. John Rhys Plumlee has been very difficult to stop, which is not that surprising considering Rich Rod's previous success with running QB's (Pat White, Khalil Tate, Shoelaces, etc). Mississippi State is 94th against the run, so I think Ole Miss will be able to control the game on the ground. With this being the case, and the fact that I get the added cushion on the FG, It's a pretty clear take for me.
 
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2. @Central Michigan -10.5 v Toledo: I'm usually not a huge fan of laying double digits, especially in MAC games, but this one seems to be pretty obviously the correct side. Toledo has been a Jeckyl/Hyde type team this year, having beaten BYU while losing to Bowling Green only a couple of weeks later. They actually put up a decent effort for about 45 minutes last week at Buffalo before getting dispatched, but now they have to go back to back on the road and face a second top MAC team in as many weeks in CMU. The Chippewas can gain a birth in the MAC title game with a win as NIU did them a favor by upsetting Western Michigan on Tuesday night, so they'll be motivated. They've also spent the past several years getting their asses handed to them by Toledo, so you'll likely see an A effort for more than one reason. CMU is almost certainly going to dominate this game in the trenches, as their offensive line is probably the best in the MAC (30th run offense in the country, and 14th in sacks allowed), while Toledo probably has the weakest DL east of Akron since they check in at 120th against the run and 113th in sacks. CMU should be able to run on them and QB Quinten Dormady(66 % completions, 8.2 ypa) will be able to stand back there and pick them apart in the pass game if necessary. Worst of all for Toledo, it looks increasingly likely that QB Eli Peters will be out this week which means Carter Bradley will start, and make no mistake, he sucks(47% completions, 5.6 yards per attempt). CMU is probably the most well coached team in the MAC under McElwain, and they've been solid on both sides of the ball. Toledo is bowl eligible already but they're leaking oi here with two tough road games to finish things out. I think CMU should take care of business here
 
3. Texas Tech +10 @ Texas: Although I'm certainly not enthralled with the idea of backing Texas Tech's 126th ranked pass defense (yards per attempt), 10 points looks to be too much for Texas to cover in it's current state. There have been lots of whispers about some internal issues in the Texas program, and things certainly took a bizarre turn when Tom Hermann violently started head butting one of his helmet wearing players prior to the kickoff to fire his team up. Fire them up it most certainly did not as they folded badly in Waco and lost 24-10. Hermann still seems obsessed with sideways offense, which makes things much easier on the defense. Texas's defense still can't tackle, so TT should be able to put some points up. Both teams have played mostly tight games, as Tech has lost games by 3,10, 3,2 and 3 while Texas has been involved in almost exclusively one possession games unless they've been on the losing end. TT is not bowling so this will serve as their bowl game. You also have a case of a new coach who has some optimism to get the Red Raiders back on track while it appears Herman has lost some luster and may have lost the room. Also, not much excitement about this game in Austin as tickets for this game can't be given away. I see this as being close. If TT can come within a whisker of an outright at Baylor, they can hang in this one.
 
Not going to have any others in the early Friday slate but still watching some for later today and I want to jump on this one while the line is here:

@Washington -6.5 v Washington State: The Huskies are coming off what was easily their worst game of the year, unable to get anything going against a Colorado defense that hasn't stopped anyone and frankly, appeared to have packed it in for the year. I have faith in this squad and especially Chris Peterson that they will bounce back with a performance that better mirrors their DNA, and part of their DNA is that Peterson hands Mike Leach his head every year. I won't go into the specifics, but Peterson has won and covered all 6 times, and the closest game was last year when the Huskies won by 13 as a 2.5 point dog out in Pullman. The rest of the games were all 25-30 point games vs lines in this range or fewer. The fundamental matchup favors Washington as well as their strength is pass defense. Washington St can't stop a soul on defense, as they rank 124th in yards per play, 111th against the run and 124th in yards per pass attempt. The Cougs need a bad defense to match up with so they can put up 50+ because their D is going to give up points almost regardless, and this Husky defense doesn't fit the bill. Throw in the Cougs penchant for turning the ball over and I think the recipe is similar to what it's been in previous years.
 
Combining your thoughts with another cappers makes for a few solid looks in this game.
 
Washington's other worst games of the year, they have bounced back strong from...

Home loss to Cal as 2TD fav = 52-20 win over Hawaii (jumped out to big lead, then UH did come back for a bit before UW pulled away again)
15-23 loss at Stanford as 2TD fav = 51-27 win at Arizona (UW did start slow 1st H then poured it on 2nd H)
14-20 loss at Colorado as 2TD fav = 2019 Apple Cup

Washington has the pedigree and the history in this game. And they do have the 2019 history of playing strong after poor prior outings. Something just feels off with them, it has all year.
 
I will be on the Texas Tech game as well. Good you grabbed the 10, looks like I will have to accept some lower line.

Can't really justify such a large favorite for Texas here, even given the bad D that TT has been.
 
s--k said:
I will be on the Texas Tech game as well. Good you grabbed the 10, looks like I will have to accept some lower line.

Can't really justify such a large favorite for Texas here, even given the bad D that TT has been.
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Yeah, line down to 8 for TT. When I went to sleep last night and put it in the line was 10. 2 point drop in a few hours. Did not expect that. Also CMU all the way up to 14.5!!! Wow.
 
Appalachian St -10(-120) @ Troy: Not a big fan of road favorites, but Appy State has just been a machine on the road. Outright wins at North Carolina and South Carolina, a smothering win on the road over a LaLa team that has been destroying everyone, including Troy last week(53-3) and blowouts over everyone else. Appy State has the edge in every facet of this game, and I can't see a scenario where Troy stops them at all. Troy is 100th in yards per play, 115th in passing yards per attempt against and 74th against the run. Troy will need to score at least 30-35 points to hang within this number and Appy's defense has been outstanding all year. Troy has been a good program, but the jury is out on the new regime, and the influence of Neal Brown gets more distant with every week. Unless Appy throws a clunker out there, they should take care of business here.
 
Nice work Brass, wish I had paid attention to CM earlier in week. You just nailed that game. I liked Wash, but under more so glad we both won there.
 
6. Ohio State -7.5(-125) v Michigan: This line has fallen down to 7.5 with added juice(at my book anyway), due mostly to the results of last week. I was actually against both of these squads last week, as I thought both would be looking ahead a bit. Michigan was having none of that, as they dominated a good Indiana team and completely took care of business. Ohio State struggled (by their standards) with Penn State, the first time they failed to outgain an opponent by more than 200 yards.(They settled for 190). Just a couple weeks ago, this look ahead line hovered around at least 13 but I guess Michigan looking like people thought they'd look has led to that line coming down in a big way. I'm very skeptical that Michigan's recent success will translate to any meaningful change in the way this series has transpired in recent history. You can make a case that Ohio State teams much inferior to this OSU squad have put the wood to better Michigan teams than this one. I felt that last week was the best chance for OSU to have whatever their version of clunker was, and through a few badly timed turnovers, they had it. I sincerely doubt that will happen this week. No team has reached 300 yards this year against OSU, and Michigan won't either. Their 79th ranked run offense certainly won't run on OSU's 3rd ranked run D, and although Patterson has looked good in recent weeks throwing the ball, he'll be running for his life when the Buckeyes(CHASE YOUNG) get to pin their ears back when Michigan becomes one dimensional, which won't take long. Michigan's defense is definitely solid, but in order to cover this they'll have to hold OSU to 21 or less. Good luck with that.
 
7. Indiana -7 @ Purdue: The Boilers are not bowling this year so I'm sure they would like to saddle Indiana with their 5th loss and their 3rd in a row in the Old Oaken Bucket game, however, this is much easier said than done, especially when almost all of your playmakers are injured. It appears that all hope of a return this year from Rondale Moore has been extinguished, and Purdue is down to third string QB Aiden O'Connell. IU has the edge in just about every statistical category. They should be able to run it and throw it on the Boilers, whose defense hit a breaking point last week when they gave up 600+ yards to Wisconsin. This game is a huge deal in the state of Indiana, and the Hoosiers have had to watch Purdue hoist the bucket two years in a row, which I'm sure doesn't sit well with them. They definitely will want to avoid falling to a ho hum 7-5 after the had a legit shot at a 9 win season. They are easily the better team, and will have the necessary motivation to give their A effort.
 
8. Northwestern +7.5 @ Illinois: Northwestern has had a terrible season. They've won only 2 games and they're in danger of going winless in the conference a year after winning the Big Ten West and playing in the Big Ten title game. However, they are in their comfort zone as a road dog here against the Illini, a role they've covered in 11 of their last 13 tries. Illinois comes in 6-5, having already met their goal of being bowl eligible 2 weeks ago. They will be completely happy with any kind of win and even a loss isn't catastrophic. Unfortunately, QB Brandon Peters probably won't play for them this week after he was knocked out late in the Iowa game last week on a helmet to helmet hit about 3 full seconds after the whistle that somehow went uncalled for a penalty. Backup Matt Robinson isn't terrible, but he's a major downgrade and it's not like the Illini offense has been settling the world on fire anyway. Northwestern has a historically bad offense, but they've shown a pulse the last 3 weeks. Defensively, they've been as good as usual and look to have the edge against the Illini offense, especially without Peters. If they avoid the Illini's penchant for causing gobs of turnovers, they'll be right in this game.
 
9. Wake Forest -3.5 @ Syracuse: It looks like this might be the squarest of all square sides, but for the life of me I can't figure out how anyone can make this Syracuse team only a 3.5 point dog against an 8-3 team like Wake. It's true that stud WR Sage Suratt is out for the year, but if not for the cosmically strange 49-6 blowout that Syracuse notched against Duke despite managing only 16 first downs, they would be on a 7 game straight up and ATS losing streak. Over the past 4 weeks, which includes the Duke fluke, they've given up 1,229 RUSHING yards, including 370 and 56 points to Louisville last week. Wake also has a major advantage in the passing game and the Orange will have almost no chance to get the Deacs off the field on 3rd down. If this somehow turns into a sucker bet that I see coming, I'll tip my cap. Usually in cases like that, however, the undervalued dog has some redeeming quality, which I see no evidence of with this Syracuse team.
 
10. Wyoming +11 @ Air Force: Although Air Force has found ways to win a lot of their games this year going away, Wyoming plays the kind of game that makes it hard for anyone to blow them out. The Cowboys rank 28th overall in yards per play and 9th in yards per carry against which should serve them well against the Air Force run offense. They also almost never turn the ball over (8th in giveaways) and Air Force is 120th in takeaways, meaning there's very little chance of multiple turnovers for the Cowboys. Wyoming has no semblance of a passing game and they know it, so they'll be employing their 36th ranked run game which has abused some of the teams on their schedule. Wyoming has won 4 of the 5 games with Air Force since Craig Bohl took over and 5 of 6 overall. They definitely have the recipe for hanging with Air Force and the AF option is no stranger to them. This is a 7-4 squad who hasn't lost a game by more than 5 points this year, so I think they'll be more than capable of keeping this one to a score or less.
 
:shake:
I have money down on Ohio State -8.5, Indiana -7, Northwestern +9.5 & will probably take ML, Wake -4 & Wyoming +10.5.

I loved reading your posts and analysis, but wanted to give you a warning.

Best of luck today.
 
11. Southern Miss +9.5 @FAU: Although it doesn't look like either team will make the CUSA title game, these are two of the best teams in the league. When I went through the handicap on this one, although there are some warning signs, I had this game as FAU -3 at the worst, but I think there's line value here based on Southern Miss laying an egg at home to Western Kentucky last week while FAU has been rolling. Since their two opening games against Ohio State and UCF, FAU is 8-1, so good for them, but the alarming thing is that the vast majority of those games have been against putrid offenses, and they've still managed to find a way to rank 80th in the country in yards per play against. The best pass offense they've faced since early September is Charlotte, and even pedestrian pass offenses like Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky lit them up for 300+. Now they face Southern Miss with QB Jack Abraham, the 10th best pass offense in the country at 9.3 yards per attempt. Defensively. USM is not good against the pass, but USM's D line is likely to have a big edge over FAU's as they are great against the run(and FAU can't run it) and they are 7th in the country in sacks while FAU has trouble protecting the QB. Southern Miss has a penchant for turning the ball over so I will stop short of laying cash on the money line, but I think almost double digits is too much here.
 
12. @Tennessee -23 v Vanderbilt. It's gotten to the point where there is no redeeming value at all for Vandy other than they can hand it to Ke'Shawn Vaughn(who was 4th string at Illinois when he transferred) and get 4 yards on occasion. It used to be that Vandy could at least give you some toughness on defense and maybe slog around for 4 quarters and eek out a cover for you if you were getting 18. Not anymore. Their offense is as bad as it's ever been (120th overall in ypp) but now the defense is an abomination as well. They're 122nd in yards per play against, 119th against the run and 122nd against the pass. They turn it over, the don't get turnovers, they can't convert a third down to save their lives and they give up sacks by the bushel. On the flip side, Tennessee is rolling now. I had to do a double take when I came across that box score last week against Missouri in which the Vols outgained Missouri 526-280. Their defense hasn't given up more than 400 in a game in the past 6 games, which includes a game at Bama. To make things worse for Vandy, Tennessee is actually on a 3 game losing streak to the Commodores and are coming off a 38-13 embarrassment to close out last year. Tennessee will be motivated to blow these guys out and it won't be pretty.
 
I think Abraham is supposed to play. We might have to acknowledge the fact that a chance he doesn't or can't fully go. Staff seems to believe in the backup although I don't know what kind of player he is. If SMiss, LaTech and UAB all win today then SMiss wins the division - so certainly something on the line for SMiss.
 
Br@ssknux said:
8. Northwestern +7.5 @ Illinois: Northwestern has had a terrible season. They've won only 2 games and they're in danger of going winless in the conference a year after winning the Big Ten West and playing in the Big Ten title game. However, they are in their comfort zone as a road dog here against the Illini, a role they've covered in 11 of their last 13 tries. Illinois comes in 6-5, having already met their goal of being bowl eligible 2 weeks ago. They will be completely happy with any kind of win and even a loss isn't catastrophic. Unfortunately, QB Brandon Peters probably won't play for them this week after he was knocked out late in the Iowa game last week on a helmet to helmet hit about 3 full seconds after the whistle that somehow went uncalled for a penalty. Backup Matt Robinson isn't terrible, but he's a major downgrade and it's not like the Illini offense has been settling the world on fire anyway. Northwestern has a historically bad offense, but they've shown a pulse the last 3 weeks. Defensively, they've been as good as usual and look to have the edge against the Illini offense, especially without Peters. If they avoid the Illini's penchant for causing gobs of turnovers, they'll be right in this game.
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The stats suggest that Robinson is the better passer. How is he a major downgrade in your view?
 
M.W. said:
The stats suggest that Robinson is the better passer. How is he a major downgrade in your view?
Click to expand...

He panicks and turns the ball over way too much. He fumbles on a high percentage of his sacks and the OC doesn't trust him to go downfield despite the fact he's completed a couple deep ones in garbage time.

Illinois also without their top WR,(Imatorbhebhe) and 3 of their top defenders (Hansen, Adams and Jamal Woods). Gonna be much tougher to cover. Peters also officially out.
 
s--k said:
I think Abraham is supposed to play. We might have to acknowledge the fact that a chance he doesn't or can't fully go. Staff seems to believe in the backup although I don't know what kind of player he is. If SMiss, LaTech and UAB all win today then SMiss wins the division - so certainly something on the line for SMiss.
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I hope so. I made this play under the assumption he is playing. I didn't even double check on it today, bad job by me.
 
13. UAB -3 @North Texas: I don't know if this is a secret or if it's pretty well known, but this UAB team does two things really well: Play defense and cover spreads. They're 24-13-1 overall and 17-6-1 in conference ATS over the past 3 years. Defensively, they're 5th in ypp against, 11th against the run and 10th against the pass. Although UNT came in with some juice due to Mason Fine returning, he's been banged up all year and they've never gooten going. UAB is also surprisingly good throwing the ball. UAB won last week without QB Tyler Johnson but most reports indicate he'll play today. They'll be motivated because they still have a shot at the CUSA title game if they win. That motivation along with their defense should be enough to get them past a Mean Green team that is ready for the season to be over. I'm sure this is a public side, which worries me, but I can't see NT sucking it up and getting this done.
 
damn... identical selections here except I have zero in Tenny game. Best of fortune
 
14. @SMU -3 v Tulane: I'm not sure why this line is sitting only at 3, and I'm not alone as I suspect there are a ton of people on this side. It might have something to do with Tulane playing the role of what I like to call the "emotional smart guy" concept. Sometimes "sharp bettors" get so attached to a team they think they are ahead of the market on (happens with service academies sometimes) it results in a lack of value. Tulane had been so irrelevant over the years that now that they are actually pretty good with a good coach, the right bettors get attached to them and the books have to adjust. Maybe I'm nuts too. Anyway, I think it's asking a ton of Tulane to walk into Dallas and beat this SMU team, especially since they don't match up well. SMU is actually pretty solid defensively. Tulane wants to run, but SMU is 32nd against the run and they'll definitely have a major edge if Tulane has to throw, as Tulane struggles to protect the QB and SMU is 8th in the nation is sacks. On the flip side, Tulane generates no pressure, so Buechele should be able to sit back there and have a cup of coffee before he picks out a receiver. Tulane might be able to hang for awhile, but 3 is nowhere near enough in my opinion.
 
15. Notre Dame -17 @ Stanford: This is obviously not your older brother's Stanford team. Other than an occasional fluky passing performance against a bad defense, they do nothing well. They can't run on offense, they mostly can't throw, they can't stop the run, they can't cover, they never get turnovers and most of their good players are injured. The only decent part of Stanford's offense will have to deal with Notre Dame's 4th ranked pass defense. When I handicap, I look at the matchups in 12 areas, and ND has a major edge in all 12. If not for the names on the jerseys, this would look like a 28 point line based on what these teams have accomplished this year. This should be all ND. When Ian Book has faced weak pass defenses, it's been ugly for the other team, and that'll be the case here.
 
16. Navy -8.5 @ Houston: The one area that Houston has an edge in this game is in their passing game. If they want to stay within this number, one of two things will have to happen: Either Clayton Tune throws for 800 yards or they smuggle in a new defense because Navy is going to run at will on them. About a calendar year ago, this collection of defenders gave up 70 points and 500 yards rushing to army in a bowl performance so inept it lead to the immediate firing of Major Applewhite. This year, Houston ranks 121st in yards per play, 106th against the run and 112th against the pass. Navy is 6th in yards per carry and actually 2nd in yards per attempt. That's a terrible combination and my guess is Dana Holgerson didn't bring any secret option defense knowledge with him from Morgantown. It'll be a major upset if Navy punts more than a couple times and I expect Navy to hit 50. Navy's D is 38th overall in yards per play and 25th on 3rd down, so I doubt Houston will be able to keep up.
 
17 @Oklahoma St +14(-120) v Oklahoma: Although Oklahoma should have plenty of success on offense, there's too much to ignore here to avoid taking the points with the Cowboys here. Oklahoma has had all kinds of trouble covering big spreads this year and this will be no different. To whit, the Sooners somehow went down to the wire with TCU and had to benefit on a terrible 3rd down spot to escape despite outgaining the Frogs 511-204. That's been happening all year. This week, their 64th ranked run D will have to deal with Chuba Hubbard. The backup QB is a concern, but Spencer Sanders was a turnover machine, so it might not be a huge loss. Ultimately, this is a play on Mike Gundy's performance as a dog, he's well over 65% in his career and has covered 10 of the last 11 as a dog. Last year they were a bigger dog in Norman and were a two point conversion away from an outright win. If Oklahoma blows them out, it'll be something that absolutely does not follow the DNA of either one of these teams.
 
18. @San Diego State +6 v BYU: I actually think the wrong team is favored here. San Diego State's defense is legit, and although their offense is famously weak, they've been able to get points under QB Ryan Lindley when they've needed to, especially against mediocre defenses. It's the reason they're 8-3 and bowling once again under Rocky Long. BYU has a decent secondary but they can't pressure the passer, which will make things a lot easier under Lindley. This likely to be a low scoring game, and I think it'll be a tossup as to who gets the outright, but I'd lean to the home team in the Aztecs. I'll certainly take the 6 with this defense, that's for sure.
 
19. Cal pk @ UCLA: One of the most disappointing injuries this year was that of Cal QB Chase Garbers. Garbers started the season with a bunch of nice games, including on the road at Ole Miss. It gave Cal somewhat of the total package from a bettor's standpoint: an undervalued team with a competent QB, a good defense and solid coach. When Garbers got hurt, their offense went off the deep end and that was that. However, now Garbers is back, and he had a nice game against Stanford last week, so now the total bettor's package is back in business with Cal. Although Stanford is not a good defense, UCLA is much worse, 115th in yards per play and completely helpless against the pass (128th). Garbers should have his way with that secondary, and I like the Cal defense and Justin Wilcox under the headset to take care of the rest. Cal should take care of business here, and if they do, that'll be their 6th win, so we'll have another useful team to back in the bowl season.
 
Good Lord, Air Force kills me again. First the 99 yard defensive score against Colorado State and now a 75 yard TD pass up 7 with 2 minutes left.
 
Br@ssknux said:
18. @San Diego State +6 v BYU: I actually think the wrong team is favored here. San Diego State's defense is legit, and although their offense is famously weak, they've been able to get points under QB Ryan Lindley when they've needed to, especially against mediocre defenses. It's the reason they're 8-3 and bowling once again under Rocky Long. BYU has a decent secondary but they can't pressure the passer, which will make things a lot easier under Lindley. This likely to be a low scoring game, and I think it'll be a tossup as to who gets the outright, but I'd lean to the home team in the Aztecs. I'll certainly take the 6 with this defense, that's for sure.
Click to expand...
Note Agnew likely out for SDSU and backup Baker has zero experience.

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