NCAA Football Week 13 Parlay Plays: Bets to Win Big on Thanksgiving
Colorado State Rams vs. Air Force Falcons
Thursday, November 26, 2020 at 2 p.m. ET (CBSSN) at Usaf Academy in Colorado Springs, Colorado
Trends
Historically, Air Force dominates this match-up especially at home.
These two teams play every year and every year they alternate sites.
The Rams last won at Air Force in 2002. So the Falcons have won their last eight home games against Colorado State. The Falcons have also won the last four overall in the series.
Kyle Patterson
Colorado State hasn’t faced any team that wants to threaten a defense with its tight end.
But the Rams haven’t shown any indication that they can stop opposing tight ends when they have to.
Against Wyoming, for example, they allowed Treyton Welch to have his best game of the season as Wyoming’s third-leading pass-catcher.
Patterson will easily be Colorado State’s toughest test.
The former Alabama recruit is the team’s leading receiver. At 6-6, he possesses significant size. He’ll use his large frame to succeed at the point of attack.
Option Game
Of course, Air Force primarily wants to run the ball as part of its option game.
The Falcons will wear down opponents by constantly running at them.
In order to keep its defense fresh enough, the Ram offense will have to sustain drives.
However, Colorado State will struggle to possess the ball much with a meagre ground game that ranks 109th in averaging 3.2 YPC. Air Force’s run defense, in turn, ranks 22nd as measured by opposing rushing yards per game.
So the Rams will want to pass their way to first downs. But they miss Warren Jackson, who decided to forego his last year of eligibility.
Without Jackson and his NFL-caliber quality, the Rams’ leading pass-catcher is a tight end.
The Rams rank 117th in average time of possession because they are so bad at converting third downs.
Without a good rush attack, it’s hard for an offense to achieve third-and-manageable situations. Without Jackson, Colorado State lacks a top target with which to move the sticks.
Gradually, Air Force will wear down the Ram defense, which will spend too much time on the field.
New Mexico Lobos vs. Utah State Aggies
Thursday, November 26, 2020 at 7 p.m. ET (FS1) at Maverik Stadium in Logan, Utah
Pass Defense
Both the Lobos and Aggies have terrible secondaries that help their team rank outside the top 120 in opposing pass yards per game.
However, both offenses have issues with their starting quarterbacks.
The team that covers the spread will be the team that does a better job exposing the opponent’s secondary.
This success will come through the deep ball because both defenses allow so many passing yards largely because they give up a ton of deep plays.
Utah State’s vulnerability to the deep ball was transparent in its loss against Nevada.
Wolf Pack wide receiver Romeo Doubs accrued 137 yards on seven receptions.
Two big plays of Doubs stand out on the highlight reel. One was a jump ball in the end zone. On another play, he burned his opposing cornerback, outrunning him for a touchdown.
New Mexico’s weakness against the deep ball is evident in the quantity of times where one of its cornerbacks was beaten badly. Currently, the Lobos rank 107th in opposing yards per completion.
Comparing Wide Receiver Crews
Utah State ranks 126th in yards per completion because it doesn’t have a wide receiver crew that is built for the deep ball.
Its top target is Deven Thompkins. Thompkins has at least 10 more receptions than any other Aggie wide receiver.
Thompkins likes to operate from the slot. At 5-7, he’s not a guy who will go downfield in order to make contested catches.
Instead, he’ll use his quickness to earn separation in the short passing game.
The Aggies also have taller wide receivers. Overall, they are relatively solid at run-blocking. They also like to use their physicality as possession receivers in shorter pass attempts. No receiver other than Thompkins averages more than eight yards per catch.
But New Mexico has two wide receivers who average over 17 YPC. Jordan Kress, who leads the team in yardage, is one of those two receivers. Andrew Erickson, who is right behind Kress in season yardage, is the other.
Look out especially for Kress, who already has a 52-yard catch this season. Kress excels at getting behind the opposing defense. So he can take the top off of the Aggie defense just like Doubs did.
Summary
The Lobos have the edge in this match-up because they possess the big-play wide receivers that Utah State lacks. New Mexico will move the ball downfield more easily.
The Verdict
Count on New Mexico to win by making more plays in the air. Also, Air Force will continue its strong history against the Rams by wearing them down.
Best Bet: Parlay Falcons -6.5 at -105 & Lobos -4.5 at -120 at +258 with BetOnline
Colorado State Rams vs. Air Force Falcons
Thursday, November 26, 2020 at 2 p.m. ET (CBSSN) at Usaf Academy in Colorado Springs, Colorado
Trends
Historically, Air Force dominates this match-up especially at home.
These two teams play every year and every year they alternate sites.
The Rams last won at Air Force in 2002. So the Falcons have won their last eight home games against Colorado State. The Falcons have also won the last four overall in the series.
Kyle Patterson
Colorado State hasn’t faced any team that wants to threaten a defense with its tight end.
But the Rams haven’t shown any indication that they can stop opposing tight ends when they have to.
Against Wyoming, for example, they allowed Treyton Welch to have his best game of the season as Wyoming’s third-leading pass-catcher.
Patterson will easily be Colorado State’s toughest test.
The former Alabama recruit is the team’s leading receiver. At 6-6, he possesses significant size. He’ll use his large frame to succeed at the point of attack.
Option Game
Of course, Air Force primarily wants to run the ball as part of its option game.
The Falcons will wear down opponents by constantly running at them.
In order to keep its defense fresh enough, the Ram offense will have to sustain drives.
However, Colorado State will struggle to possess the ball much with a meagre ground game that ranks 109th in averaging 3.2 YPC. Air Force’s run defense, in turn, ranks 22nd as measured by opposing rushing yards per game.
So the Rams will want to pass their way to first downs. But they miss Warren Jackson, who decided to forego his last year of eligibility.
Without Jackson and his NFL-caliber quality, the Rams’ leading pass-catcher is a tight end.
The Rams rank 117th in average time of possession because they are so bad at converting third downs.
Without a good rush attack, it’s hard for an offense to achieve third-and-manageable situations. Without Jackson, Colorado State lacks a top target with which to move the sticks.
Gradually, Air Force will wear down the Ram defense, which will spend too much time on the field.
New Mexico Lobos vs. Utah State Aggies
Thursday, November 26, 2020 at 7 p.m. ET (FS1) at Maverik Stadium in Logan, Utah
Pass Defense
Both the Lobos and Aggies have terrible secondaries that help their team rank outside the top 120 in opposing pass yards per game.
However, both offenses have issues with their starting quarterbacks.
The team that covers the spread will be the team that does a better job exposing the opponent’s secondary.
This success will come through the deep ball because both defenses allow so many passing yards largely because they give up a ton of deep plays.
Utah State’s vulnerability to the deep ball was transparent in its loss against Nevada.
Wolf Pack wide receiver Romeo Doubs accrued 137 yards on seven receptions.
Two big plays of Doubs stand out on the highlight reel. One was a jump ball in the end zone. On another play, he burned his opposing cornerback, outrunning him for a touchdown.
New Mexico’s weakness against the deep ball is evident in the quantity of times where one of its cornerbacks was beaten badly. Currently, the Lobos rank 107th in opposing yards per completion.
Comparing Wide Receiver Crews
Utah State ranks 126th in yards per completion because it doesn’t have a wide receiver crew that is built for the deep ball.
Its top target is Deven Thompkins. Thompkins has at least 10 more receptions than any other Aggie wide receiver.
Thompkins likes to operate from the slot. At 5-7, he’s not a guy who will go downfield in order to make contested catches.
Instead, he’ll use his quickness to earn separation in the short passing game.
The Aggies also have taller wide receivers. Overall, they are relatively solid at run-blocking. They also like to use their physicality as possession receivers in shorter pass attempts. No receiver other than Thompkins averages more than eight yards per catch.
But New Mexico has two wide receivers who average over 17 YPC. Jordan Kress, who leads the team in yardage, is one of those two receivers. Andrew Erickson, who is right behind Kress in season yardage, is the other.
Look out especially for Kress, who already has a 52-yard catch this season. Kress excels at getting behind the opposing defense. So he can take the top off of the Aggie defense just like Doubs did.
Summary
The Lobos have the edge in this match-up because they possess the big-play wide receivers that Utah State lacks. New Mexico will move the ball downfield more easily.
The Verdict
Count on New Mexico to win by making more plays in the air. Also, Air Force will continue its strong history against the Rams by wearing them down.
Best Bet: Parlay Falcons -6.5 at -105 & Lobos -4.5 at -120 at +258 with BetOnline
