Thank God for CFB - WEEK 1 PICKS/ANALYSIS

Inspekdah

My man, Michael Jordan!
Well... how's everyone doing? Been awhile since I've been around.... got out of the game right before the rigged NBA playoffs... but now my passion is back and I'm glad to see all the regulars still around:tiphat:... looks to be a very profitable season.



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RECAP:

9/3

T.T. -8.5 5 Units
FSU -3 6 Units to Win 5 Units
FSU UND 43.5 LIVE BET 1 Unit




9/1
Miami FL -18 3 Units
Mich St. -22 3 Units
Nebraska -21 3 Units
Wisconsin -14 3 Units
Iowa -12 3 Units
B.C. -5.5 1 Unit
G.T. PK 2 Units
S.C -28 4 Units
USC -27.5 1H 4 Units
TEXAS -23 1H 6 Units
CAL -6.5 4 Units
NM -3 4 Units


LSU -17 W 1 Unit
UL MONROE +3 L 1 Unit
SYRACUSE +3 3 Units L
NAVY 1H -11.5 1 Unit W
NAVY -21 1 Unit L




Thursday 8/30

LSU -17


How can Miss St. score enough points to cover? What we have here is a huge mismatch between two teams with different goals this season. It seems that each year Miss St. shows some promise... an emerging defense... a team that plays others real close and is capable of possibly busting through and finally becomming bowl eligible. I don't see it this season.

The word around Miss St. is that now they are going to have to rely on their "veteran" offense... what offense..? This was one of the harder teams to watch on television last year. They got blanked by Auburn and South Carolina and now play a defense superior to both of those teams. The defense only returns 5 starters including losses to the blunt of it's strength on the defensive line where only senior Titus Brown returns. This is key in covering big spreads because the inexperience and lack of talent up front means the Tigers will be able pound the ball away late and possibly add on that necessary score or two late.

LSU? What else needs to be said here. They'll most likely be playing in the national championship game. Flynn is a college QB in the most true of form. This offense has been missing a consistent system guy for years. He is not going to make a play like Russel but I think they will move the ball much more efficiently. I think if Flynn was QBing last season... they would have beaten Auburn and Florida on the road.

UL Monroe +3

This game has some serious perplexing line movement. You would think Tulsa would be a big pick here. They are predicted to return to bowls this season and Monroe on the other hand would love just to get to a bowl this season. What I like about Monroe is that they return the majority of their offense and should be able to move the ball against Tulsa. On the other side... what better a chance does Monroe's defense... the weakness of the team have to improve than vs. Tulsa's completely retooled offense line. If your going to knock off a favorite while playing the home dogg... it never hurts to have an offensive line playing together for the first time with little to no experience. I watched Tulsa alot last year and this team's line was it's strength... they pushed defenses back and let them use alot of WR screens and trick run plays... I think the lack of experience there will have Tulsa revert to having a more conventional passing style.

This play is much more about the perplexing line movement. I would have had Tulsa a touchdown favorite... but upon more research I like the home dog here. I got the number late and will probably play it very, very small.


Sat 9/01

Leans as of right now...

Cal -6

B.C -6.5
Georgia -6.5
Iowa -11
MSU -21
Neb -21
NM -3
SC -29
Tex -39
USC 1H, Game -45.5
 
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Good to see ya back in the forum. Looking forward to discussing cfb with you this year. Feel free to post any thoughts you might have about my card over in my thread. Best of luck this season!
 
Good to see you back in the action Spek, make that cash this season and look forward to your thoughts throughout the season.
 
I did not get my bets in last night... I know pathetic right? Didn't really plan ahead and my Western Union deposit could not be verified in time b/c of its "quantity and time frame in respect to Costa Rica".

Would have probably hit LSU 3x and Monroe 1x.... but never the less... adding some for tonight's action. So we'll say posted plays 1-1 -.1.

ORANGE +3 3 UNITS

Just looking to get some action out of the gates here... SU is about 2 hours from me and I made some calls to SU alumni and they expect a packed... energetic house. I don't like UW's ability to come in here and run an effective offense. They are starting a freshman at QB and just don't see things getting off to a strong start for Ty's squad. Why SU? They played tough at home last year vs. comparable competition. They outplayed Iowa..granted with Iowa's backup... and they return much of their offense. This is year 3 in the spread west coast offense and think they'll take what UW's gives them... but will be all over the field on defense with dramatic blitz schemes. Head Coach for SU says he wants them to be on top of the Big East in retrospect to turnovers forced and sacks... why not try it against a freshman 3000 miles from home?

NAVY -20.5 1 Unit
NAVY -11.5 1H 1 Unit

Simple Temple fade here... I know they are improved but this is more of a home game for Navy than Temple. I think they'll come out and absolutely work them. I don't buy into that Temple played "better" in the 2H last year. Navy had nothing to gain by beating them by anything worse than they already did.

Plus I think you'll see a split tonight between the fav's and the dog's... and hopefully I'm on the right side of both.

Thanks blue and renew... can't wait to get more into CFB as things get rolling.

I'll be back late night with tomorrow's card... granted... my lines are going to suck but I really, really like some of the trendy plays on here.
 
Good to see ya back for the season bro...helluva a year for you last year...lets do it again..

gl
 
Thanks guys.


12 PM EST GAMES ADDING

Miami -18 3 Units

Mich St. -22 3 Units

Will see how these do and play Nebraska, G.T., and Mizzou for the 3:30 games.
 
Adding 3:30 Games

Neb -21 3 Units
Iowa -12 3 Units
Wisky -14 3 Units
G.T PK 2 Units
B.C. -5.5 1 Unit

Why didn't I parlay these?:down2:
 
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Adding:

Texas -23 1H 5 Units
South Car -28 3 Units

Sorry will try to post not so close to gametime.

Will be on New Mexico, South Car 1H and Game....

Possibly Hawaii if I can find a line.

Oh, and Cal depending on how Texas does.
 
Well I started the day 7-0... stepped up the bets and finished the night losing NM, Texas, and USC and only cashing Cal... roughly made only about 4 Units.

Adding:

T.T. -8.5 5 Units
FSU -3 5 Units
FSU/CLEM UND 43.5 LIVE BET 1 UNIT


8 points is not alot to lay for T.T. as a favorite... I think this line is a few points off and don't know why there is hype around SMU. The line is as high as 10 in some places but as low as 8 so clearly there's some weird action being layed on this one. It's starting to all move in favor of T.T. so I jumped on it at 8.5 at Greek.

FSU? Just think they have the class and speed here... they should hold Clemson's rushing attack to a marginal game and if they can do so it's over. I think FSU will have a running game for the first time in like 5 years... and will pull out the road win.


PARLAY (will keep track in just +/- $$ figures.

$32 to win $340

T.T -7
T.T O 60.5
FSU -3
FSU UND 44.5
 
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