Texas vs. Texas A&M College Football Week 14 Picks
Texas Longhorns vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Saturday, November 30, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Kyle Field
Home Field Advantage
As Nick Saban and many other of the best coaches and players can attest, Texas A&M's Kyle Field is well-known to pose one of the toughest road environments for visiting opponents.
The Aggies are at their best at home and, moreover, they bring their best against visiting top-ten conference rivals.
They are 2-0 SU and ATS at home against SEC teams ranked in the top ten.
On October 5, they beat visiting number nine Missouri 41-10.
They defeated, on October 26, visiting number eight LSU 38-23.
So, a lot of bettors will be turned off by the Aggies because of their embarrassing loss last week. But that loss took place on the road.
At home, we should expect a completely different A&M team than the one that showed up last week.
This game will mean everything to an A&M team that will want to upset its hated in-state rival.
To reinforce the meaningfulness of this game, extra speakers will be used on Saturday, so that Kyle Field will become extra loud.
Common Factor
In the Aggies' two big home wins, their rush attack thrived.
Despite having had to replace multiple offensive linemen, their offensive line has merited one of the highest run-blocking grades in the SEC from PFF thanks to several high-quality blockers and the intelligence of their position coach Adam Cushing, who are able to preserve their offensive line's high performance level.
Against Missouri, Texas A&M amassed 236 rushing yards on 6.6 YPC.
Likewise, the Aggies ran for 242 yards on 4.9 YPC against LSU. They failed to complete half their passes and accumulated all of 134 passing yards but were still able to score 38 points in a two-touchdown win because of their ground game.
Characteristically, Texas A&M is, at its best, a physical team that executes different kind of blocks very well.
This physical dominance, embodied especially by its offensive line, makes Texas A&M just as reliable without the health of injured running back Le'Veon Moss.
Texas A&M will have too much firepower in its ground game for Texas to handle. Amari Daniels, for example, and not Moss was the Aggies' leading rusher against LSU.
The Aggies also have a dangerous runner in quarterback Marcel Reed, who accumulated 62 rushing yards against LSU.
Texas' Main Vulnerability on Defense
Look, Texas is highly-ranked for a reason, so when choosing to bet on its underdog opponent, we have to understand why the favored team's talent won't be decisive.
The Longhorns are well-stacked with talent at the cornerback position. They have an elite cornerback in Jahdae Barron and, partly because of him, rank among the nation's leaders in pass defense.
If Texas' opponent is reliant on passing the ball, then, yes, the Longhorns will probably be a good bet.
However, I like the Aggies because Texas' superior pass defense won't be a relevant factor in this game.
As we saw in the Aggies' win over LSU, they can still win — straight-up and even by a decisive margin — without doing practically anything through the air.
Crucially, Texas' main vulnerability on defense is its run defense.
When the Longhorns lost by 15 points to Georgia, for example, Georgia's starting running back achieved his second-highest rush total of the season.
The Bulldogs beat Texas by being more physical, and that is something that the Aggies are absolutely built to replicate.
Marcel Reed
Texas A&M has been opting to start Marcel Reed at quarterback. This is bad news for Texas.
Reed is dangerous as a runner — he has achieved as many as 91 rushing yards in a game this year.
Texas has had trouble with this type of quarterback.
In its three-point win at heavy underdog Vanderbilt, it conceded 67 rushing yards to Vanderbilt's quarterback, who was his team's leading rusher in that game.
When Reed thrived on the ground against LSU, he was succeeding against a team that, as it showed in that game, does a great job of putting pressure on the quarterback.
Texas' general strength in its pass rush — which helps explain its aforementioned elite pass defense ranking — will be nullified not only by the Aggies' ability to keep the ball on the ground with its running backs but also by Reed's characteristic mobility, which makes him a very elusive runner.
Texas A&M's Defense at Home
The Aggies give up 318 total yards at home compared to over 400 on the road.
On defense, they are significantly stronger both against the run and against the pass at Kyle Field.
For example, as measured by passer rating, Mizzou quarterback Brady Cook had his second-worst game of the season at Kyle Field.
The Aggies also have a top-20 run defense at home.
Texas had to rely on its ground game last week partly because quarterback Quinn Ewers sustained an ankle injury that left him hobbling.
Ewers should be healthier on Saturday, but his tendency to throw short passes, which will be intensified by an Aggies' pass rush that is stronger at home, will make sustaining drives especially hard for a Longhorns offense that will struggle especially with Texas A&M's run defense.
This stingy Aggies defense will always be well-rested because of the ball-control game that Texas A&M's offense, with its physical rush attack, will be able to play.
Takeaway
Texas A&M is going to surprise people with short memories.
Returning to Kyle Field, where they've dominated two top-ten SEC teams already, the Aggies will make people forget what happened last week.
They will be too physical and too strong for the visiting Longhorns.
Expect their versatile ground game to continue thriving thanks to the depth of quality of their running backs, their mobile quarterback, and their numerous highly-graded run-blockers.
Their defense will be at its best, and it will, among other things, put too much pressure on Ewers to succeed.
Best Bet: Texas A&M ATS
Texas Longhorns vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Saturday, November 30, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Kyle Field
Home Field Advantage
As Nick Saban and many other of the best coaches and players can attest, Texas A&M's Kyle Field is well-known to pose one of the toughest road environments for visiting opponents.
The Aggies are at their best at home and, moreover, they bring their best against visiting top-ten conference rivals.
They are 2-0 SU and ATS at home against SEC teams ranked in the top ten.
On October 5, they beat visiting number nine Missouri 41-10.
They defeated, on October 26, visiting number eight LSU 38-23.
So, a lot of bettors will be turned off by the Aggies because of their embarrassing loss last week. But that loss took place on the road.
At home, we should expect a completely different A&M team than the one that showed up last week.
This game will mean everything to an A&M team that will want to upset its hated in-state rival.
To reinforce the meaningfulness of this game, extra speakers will be used on Saturday, so that Kyle Field will become extra loud.
Common Factor
In the Aggies' two big home wins, their rush attack thrived.
Despite having had to replace multiple offensive linemen, their offensive line has merited one of the highest run-blocking grades in the SEC from PFF thanks to several high-quality blockers and the intelligence of their position coach Adam Cushing, who are able to preserve their offensive line's high performance level.
Against Missouri, Texas A&M amassed 236 rushing yards on 6.6 YPC.
Likewise, the Aggies ran for 242 yards on 4.9 YPC against LSU. They failed to complete half their passes and accumulated all of 134 passing yards but were still able to score 38 points in a two-touchdown win because of their ground game.
Characteristically, Texas A&M is, at its best, a physical team that executes different kind of blocks very well.
This physical dominance, embodied especially by its offensive line, makes Texas A&M just as reliable without the health of injured running back Le'Veon Moss.
Texas A&M will have too much firepower in its ground game for Texas to handle. Amari Daniels, for example, and not Moss was the Aggies' leading rusher against LSU.
The Aggies also have a dangerous runner in quarterback Marcel Reed, who accumulated 62 rushing yards against LSU.
Texas' Main Vulnerability on Defense
Look, Texas is highly-ranked for a reason, so when choosing to bet on its underdog opponent, we have to understand why the favored team's talent won't be decisive.
The Longhorns are well-stacked with talent at the cornerback position. They have an elite cornerback in Jahdae Barron and, partly because of him, rank among the nation's leaders in pass defense.
If Texas' opponent is reliant on passing the ball, then, yes, the Longhorns will probably be a good bet.
However, I like the Aggies because Texas' superior pass defense won't be a relevant factor in this game.
As we saw in the Aggies' win over LSU, they can still win — straight-up and even by a decisive margin — without doing practically anything through the air.
Crucially, Texas' main vulnerability on defense is its run defense.
When the Longhorns lost by 15 points to Georgia, for example, Georgia's starting running back achieved his second-highest rush total of the season.
The Bulldogs beat Texas by being more physical, and that is something that the Aggies are absolutely built to replicate.
Marcel Reed
Texas A&M has been opting to start Marcel Reed at quarterback. This is bad news for Texas.
Reed is dangerous as a runner — he has achieved as many as 91 rushing yards in a game this year.
Texas has had trouble with this type of quarterback.
In its three-point win at heavy underdog Vanderbilt, it conceded 67 rushing yards to Vanderbilt's quarterback, who was his team's leading rusher in that game.
When Reed thrived on the ground against LSU, he was succeeding against a team that, as it showed in that game, does a great job of putting pressure on the quarterback.
Texas' general strength in its pass rush — which helps explain its aforementioned elite pass defense ranking — will be nullified not only by the Aggies' ability to keep the ball on the ground with its running backs but also by Reed's characteristic mobility, which makes him a very elusive runner.
Texas A&M's Defense at Home
The Aggies give up 318 total yards at home compared to over 400 on the road.
On defense, they are significantly stronger both against the run and against the pass at Kyle Field.
For example, as measured by passer rating, Mizzou quarterback Brady Cook had his second-worst game of the season at Kyle Field.
The Aggies also have a top-20 run defense at home.
Texas had to rely on its ground game last week partly because quarterback Quinn Ewers sustained an ankle injury that left him hobbling.
Ewers should be healthier on Saturday, but his tendency to throw short passes, which will be intensified by an Aggies' pass rush that is stronger at home, will make sustaining drives especially hard for a Longhorns offense that will struggle especially with Texas A&M's run defense.
This stingy Aggies defense will always be well-rested because of the ball-control game that Texas A&M's offense, with its physical rush attack, will be able to play.
Takeaway
Texas A&M is going to surprise people with short memories.
Returning to Kyle Field, where they've dominated two top-ten SEC teams already, the Aggies will make people forget what happened last week.
They will be too physical and too strong for the visiting Longhorns.
Expect their versatile ground game to continue thriving thanks to the depth of quality of their running backs, their mobile quarterback, and their numerous highly-graded run-blockers.
Their defense will be at its best, and it will, among other things, put too much pressure on Ewers to succeed.
Best Bet: Texas A&M ATS
