A Defense Exposed! Back Texas vs Reeling Oklahoma
Texas (3-2) hosts #12 Oklahoma (4-1) this Saturday at 3:30 PM ET in the 112th Red River Rivalry game. Oklahoma is favored by 8 points. The total opened at 63 points, but has been bet up to 65.5.
The key question facing Oklahoma is whether they can resolve their defensive issues.
Oklahoma had given up 37 points in their first 3 games combined, all wins, including a 31-16 victory over Ohio State. Then, however, the Sooners escaped Baylor 49-41 and lost to Iowa State 38-31. Baylor established the blueprint against Oklahoma's defense: quick passes in the middle of the field and towards the sidelines. This tactic spreads out Oklahoma's defense, counters the influence of their safeties and defensive line and creates one-on-one matchups with Oklahoma's corners.
Sooners fans are positing online the conspiracy theory that former Head Coach Bob Stoops saw this catastrophe coming, but couldn't fire his defensive coordinator, who is his brother. He therefore retired. Mike Stoops still has his position, but doesn't seem qualified for it. Baylor quarterback Zach Smith had a career game against Stoops' defense, going 33/50 for 463 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Iowa State's Kyle Kempt made his first career start against Oklahoma, going 18/24 for 343 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.
Texas will easily possess the talent to exploit Oklahoma's weakness in the secondary. It seems implausible that Oklahoma can fix its issues in a week and contain an even more talented pass attack. Texas' refusal to name a starting quarterback forces Oklahoma to prepare for both Shane Buechele and Sam Ehlinger. Both have a similar skillset as dual threat quarterbacks.
Ehlinger, as the healthier option, started against Kansas State. Despite Texas' lack of depth on its offensive line, and facing a talented Kansas State defensive line, Ehlinger was not sacked once and was hurried twice. He ran for 100 yards, while throwing for nearly 400.
He maintains impressive pocket presence. From within the pocket, Ehlinger has a strong arm to fit passes into tight windows while he also ably executes touch passes. He also excels at escaping pressure and eluding defenders with his athleticism and agility.
Historically, Oklahoma struggles against mobile quarterbacks. For example, Ohio State's J.T. Barrett was an incessant scrambling threat vs Oklahoma. Ehlinger possesses the mobility and decision-making with which to execute. He already displayed against Kansas State his adeptness at executing the kind of throws that irk Oklahoma's defense, the quick, short passes towards the middle of the field and the sidelines. Ehlinger executed from the shotgun endless quick ins, pivots while rolling out, screens, and curls near the sidelines.
Collin Johnson, who is blossoming into an elite receiver, is Ehlinger's top target. Johnson is taller than Oklahoma's starting cornerbacks by 6 inches. He is skilled at creating separation from defensive backs, catching balls within an extensive range and otherwise making circus catches. Johnson brings similar physical tangibles--namely size and big-play ability--that the wide receiving corps of Baylor and Iowa State optimized against Oklahoma.
Oklahoma has yet to show that they can even come close to containing Texas' kind of offensive scheme, quarterback mobility and size at wide receiver.
The question facing Texas is whether their defense will perform as they did against Maryland and Kansas State or against USC and Iowa State.
Texas succeeded against USC and Iowa State, both pass-heavy offenses. They struggled against Maryland and Kansas State, both run-heavy offenses that utilize the option attack and balance between a perimeter and inside running game. Texas' defense thrives when they are able to be aggressive and utilize the speed of their linebackers. Texas' defense, however, struggles against offensive schemes that demand greater discipline, assignment-following and fundamental soundness.
Oklahoma excels at various read plays, which allow either quarterback Baker Mayfield to run or, depending on the play, to hand the ball to one of his able running backs, the bruiser Trey Sermon, or the speedy big-play threat Abdul Adams, or throw a screen on the perimeter. The Sooners like to elicit through additional misdirection plays the aggressive over-pursuit of defenders to their advantage by allowing Mayfield to utilize his diverse skillset at wide receiver. Texas' defense is fast, but its youthfulness can cause it to be a step behind Oklahoma's creative offense. Texas' vulnerability to the big-passing play can be disastrous against Oklahoma's air-raid propensity.
Texas' defense will be its offense. Decisive in this game will be Texas' ability to control time of possession and keep Oklahoma's offense off the field.
The Verdict
Neither Texas' undisciplined defense nor Oklahoma's exposed defense will be ready for the opposing team's offense. Both teams will strive to control time of possession--Texas with its short passing attack and Oklahoma with its balanced offense. But even if Oklahoma executes large passing plays, expect Texas to potentially achieve an upset.
NCAAF Pick: Texas +8
Texas (3-2) hosts #12 Oklahoma (4-1) this Saturday at 3:30 PM ET in the 112th Red River Rivalry game. Oklahoma is favored by 8 points. The total opened at 63 points, but has been bet up to 65.5.
The key question facing Oklahoma is whether they can resolve their defensive issues.
Oklahoma had given up 37 points in their first 3 games combined, all wins, including a 31-16 victory over Ohio State. Then, however, the Sooners escaped Baylor 49-41 and lost to Iowa State 38-31. Baylor established the blueprint against Oklahoma's defense: quick passes in the middle of the field and towards the sidelines. This tactic spreads out Oklahoma's defense, counters the influence of their safeties and defensive line and creates one-on-one matchups with Oklahoma's corners.
Sooners fans are positing online the conspiracy theory that former Head Coach Bob Stoops saw this catastrophe coming, but couldn't fire his defensive coordinator, who is his brother. He therefore retired. Mike Stoops still has his position, but doesn't seem qualified for it. Baylor quarterback Zach Smith had a career game against Stoops' defense, going 33/50 for 463 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Iowa State's Kyle Kempt made his first career start against Oklahoma, going 18/24 for 343 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.
Texas will easily possess the talent to exploit Oklahoma's weakness in the secondary. It seems implausible that Oklahoma can fix its issues in a week and contain an even more talented pass attack. Texas' refusal to name a starting quarterback forces Oklahoma to prepare for both Shane Buechele and Sam Ehlinger. Both have a similar skillset as dual threat quarterbacks.
Ehlinger, as the healthier option, started against Kansas State. Despite Texas' lack of depth on its offensive line, and facing a talented Kansas State defensive line, Ehlinger was not sacked once and was hurried twice. He ran for 100 yards, while throwing for nearly 400.
He maintains impressive pocket presence. From within the pocket, Ehlinger has a strong arm to fit passes into tight windows while he also ably executes touch passes. He also excels at escaping pressure and eluding defenders with his athleticism and agility.
Historically, Oklahoma struggles against mobile quarterbacks. For example, Ohio State's J.T. Barrett was an incessant scrambling threat vs Oklahoma. Ehlinger possesses the mobility and decision-making with which to execute. He already displayed against Kansas State his adeptness at executing the kind of throws that irk Oklahoma's defense, the quick, short passes towards the middle of the field and the sidelines. Ehlinger executed from the shotgun endless quick ins, pivots while rolling out, screens, and curls near the sidelines.
Collin Johnson, who is blossoming into an elite receiver, is Ehlinger's top target. Johnson is taller than Oklahoma's starting cornerbacks by 6 inches. He is skilled at creating separation from defensive backs, catching balls within an extensive range and otherwise making circus catches. Johnson brings similar physical tangibles--namely size and big-play ability--that the wide receiving corps of Baylor and Iowa State optimized against Oklahoma.
Oklahoma has yet to show that they can even come close to containing Texas' kind of offensive scheme, quarterback mobility and size at wide receiver.
The question facing Texas is whether their defense will perform as they did against Maryland and Kansas State or against USC and Iowa State.
Texas succeeded against USC and Iowa State, both pass-heavy offenses. They struggled against Maryland and Kansas State, both run-heavy offenses that utilize the option attack and balance between a perimeter and inside running game. Texas' defense thrives when they are able to be aggressive and utilize the speed of their linebackers. Texas' defense, however, struggles against offensive schemes that demand greater discipline, assignment-following and fundamental soundness.
Oklahoma excels at various read plays, which allow either quarterback Baker Mayfield to run or, depending on the play, to hand the ball to one of his able running backs, the bruiser Trey Sermon, or the speedy big-play threat Abdul Adams, or throw a screen on the perimeter. The Sooners like to elicit through additional misdirection plays the aggressive over-pursuit of defenders to their advantage by allowing Mayfield to utilize his diverse skillset at wide receiver. Texas' defense is fast, but its youthfulness can cause it to be a step behind Oklahoma's creative offense. Texas' vulnerability to the big-passing play can be disastrous against Oklahoma's air-raid propensity.
Texas' defense will be its offense. Decisive in this game will be Texas' ability to control time of possession and keep Oklahoma's offense off the field.
The Verdict
Neither Texas' undisciplined defense nor Oklahoma's exposed defense will be ready for the opposing team's offense. Both teams will strive to control time of possession--Texas with its short passing attack and Oklahoma with its balanced offense. But even if Oklahoma executes large passing plays, expect Texas to potentially achieve an upset.
NCAAF Pick: Texas +8
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