Texas Tech -8.5 vs. SMU - Explain This

[ynnhoj316]

Line opened at/around 10, with the majority of bettors risking their money on Texas Tech.

Why has the line dropped 1.5ish points to TTU -8.5?

Granted, TTU generally gets off to a slow start @ SMU every other year in Dallas, and everyone outside of Lubbock is concerned that TTU is replacing players lost on offense. The defense this year returns every player except 1, and D coordinator Setencich says the D will be more aggressive this year due to the increase in talent and experience.

When TTU succeeds on offense, people contribute it to the "system". Now that TTU has lost players, all of a sudden its the players that make the system, and not the system that makes the players. There will be no "homefield advantage" for SMU. Get real, their stadium is like 30,000 large and over 50% of those people will be TTU students & alumni. This is a rare sellout at SMU because of the traveling TTU fans.

I personally know several players for TTU and they are departing for Dallas today. They got to watch the upsets on tv over the weekend and see that if they dont take care of their shit, they could end up the joke of the weekend a la Meeeeechigan.

The defense returns starters, special teams returns starters, and the key position in the TTU offense (quarterback Graham Harrell) is back hoping to start off where he ended in the last few games in the 2006 season.

Someone tell me what I'm missing about this TTU -8.5.

Damn the :moose:

 

[ynnhoj316]

- THIS JUST IN -

All of my worries have been put to rest. :cheers:

I went over to that "other" site, and the majority of them are on SMU. I guess I just over analyzed the situation.

Covers, haha. :36_11_6:

 

[RetroVK]

Love smu in this game. willis can score with harrell. while you are right that half the stadium will be filled with tech fans it is still a homefield edge of sorts for mustangs. check out techs road performances the last few years, it isnt pretty. bennett has circled this game since leach's "dick move" of throwing into the endzone trying to run it up. smu returns more. btw comparing a smu win over tech to apple st over michigan is a bit extreme. if tech has its timing down with a whole new set of receivers for week 1 then maybe they can cover this number ( smu had atrocious pass d numbers last year) but i don't think its likely. also like smu chances of backdooring if they are getting hammered. i got this game at 11.5 on august 2nd so it has moved 3.5 points since that time. thought it would settle at 10 but was a bit suprised when it kept dropping. chasers love favorites on mondays so whether they are on the right or wrong side of the game i expect the line to move upward throughout sunday and into monday..

 

[reNew Orleans]

just avoid a side and take the over, but if I had to choose I'd take SMU

 

[RetroVK]

over may be decent renew , any folks in dallas have a weather report ?

 

[RaiderRed]

HOT and HUMID

 

[RJ Esq]

I'm on TT -9.5. I'm surprised at the line movement too.

I think TT wins by DD going away.

 

[Aztec4Life]

I'm with RJ on this one. Don't see Tech winning this by less than 17.

 

[ynnhoj316]

weather forcasted for tomorrow's kickoff looks to be in the high 80s with a slight chance of rain.

was hoping for some more insight from people...

 

[reNew Orleans]

Where are you getting the defense returning 10 of 11?

 

[Aztec4Life]

Love smu in this game. willis can score with harrell. while you are right that half the stadium will be filled with tech fans it is still a homefield edge of sorts for mustangs. check out techs road performances the last few years, it isnt pretty. bennett has circled this game since leach's "dick move" of throwing into the endzone trying to run it up. smu returns more. btw comparing a smu win over tech to apple st over michigan is a bit extreme. if tech has its timing down with a whole new set of receivers for week 1 then maybe they can cover this number ( smu had atrocious pass d numbers last year) but i don't think its likely. also like smu chances of backdooring if they are getting hammered. i got this game at 11.5 on august 2nd so it has moved 3.5 points since that time. thought it would settle at 10 but was a bit suprised when it kept dropping. chasers love favorites on mondays so whether they are on the right or wrong side of the game i expect the line to move upward throughout sunday and into monday..

vegaskyle - Willis can score with Harrell? The same Willis who was 9 of 16 for 67 yards against the Red Raiders last year? The same Willis who led the Mustang offense to 3 total points the entire game? Compare that to Harrell, who threw for 5 TD passes in that game, and over 300 yards. Why is it you think Willis can possibly hang with Harrell, when Graham clearly thrives in Leach's offense? Last time I checked, Texas Tech didn't have any issues at WR. They lost Filani, but still have a handful of seniors and some juniors to fill those voids.

Also, let's take a look at Tech's road schedule last season...

<TABLE border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left>Dec 29, 2006 </TD><TD align=left>Tempe, Ariz. </TD><TD align=left>Texas Tech 44, Minnesota 41 </TD><TD align=right>Box score </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left>Nov 18, 2006 </TD><TD align=left>Lubbock, Texas </TD><TD align=left>Texas Tech 30, Oklahoma State 24 </TD><TD align=right>Box score </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left>Nov 11, 2006 </TD><TD align=left>Norman, Okla. </TD><TD align=left>Oklahoma Sooners 34, Texas Tech 24 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left>Nov 04, 2006 </TD><TD align=left>Lubbock, Texas </TD><TD align=left>Texas Tech 55, Baylor 21 </TD><TD align=right>Box score </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left>Oct 28, 2006 </TD><TD align=left>Lubbock, Texas </TD><TD align=left>Texas 35, Texas Tech 31 </TD><TD align=right>Box score </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left>Oct 21, 2006 </TD><TD align=left>Ames, Iowa </TD><TD align=left>Texas Tech 42, Iowa State 26 </TD><TD align=right>Box score </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left>Oct 14, 2006 </TD><TD align=left>Boulder, Colo. </TD><TD align=left>Colorado 30, Texas Tech 6 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left>Oct 07, 2006 </TD><TD align=left>Lubbock, Texas </TD><TD align=left>Missouri 38, Texas Tech 21 </TD><TD align=right>Box score </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left>Sep 30, 2006 </TD><TD align=left>College Station, TX </TD><TD align=left>Texas Tech 31, Texas A&M 27 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left>Sep 23, 2006 </TD><TD align=left>Lubbock, Texas </TD><TD align=left>Texas Tech 62, SE Louisiana 0 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left>Sep 16, 2006 </TD><TD align=left>Fort Worth, Texas </TD><TD align=left>TCU 12, Texas Tech 3 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left>Sep 09, 2006 </TD><TD align=left>El Paso, Texas </TD><TD align=left>Texas Tech 38, UTEP 35 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left>Sep 02, 2006 </TD><TD align=left>Lubbock, Texas </TD><TD align=left>Texas Tech 35, SMU 3</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


For starters, Texas Tech is getting Harrell back, who led the Red Raiders in a phenomenal comeback in their bowl game against the Golden Gophers last year. That means he'll be even more confident coming into this season. Did Tech struggle on the road last year? Yes, but mostly against great competition (Oklahoma, TCU, Texas A&M). Tech's ability to score on the road looks to be dependent on the opposition's pass defense. SMU didn't show the ability to cover much last year, and I haven't heard anything about a vastly improved Mustang secondary. Also, Shannon Woods, now a Junior tailback for the Red Raiders, trampled all over the SMU defense last season. If he even comes close to 100 yards + again, it's going to be extremely difficult on the Mustangs to hold back the offensive onslaught, as they'll have to respect the run, and the pass.

I think revenge does play a small factor here, but not to the tune of bogging down Tech's offense. I'll be surprised if Tech doesn't cruise.

 

[RetroVK]

make some really good points. smu is not oklahoma or tcu defensively. tech WILL be able to run the ball in my estimation. they are pretty huge upfront compared to smu.

willis was a freshman in his first start ever in that game vs tech ( a better tech defense than they sport his year i might add ). smu scored atleast 21 points in ALL of their final ten games last year as willis improved. return 8 starters on offense and i would expect him to be even better this year ( of course i thought sewell would be improved for virginia too and we all saw how that turned out). it's not like i would be shocked to see texas tech smoke a team.. they like to do that and leach has no qualms about running it up , so there is that too. harrell is a good qb and maybe he finally won over his teammates ( rumors of his being disliked by the team since he arrived at tech) in that bowl second half trouncing they put on last year.

i just cant trust this tech team to crush smu on the road. this is the worst tech team in the last 5 years in my estimation ( though they arent a bad team ). the last two times that tech played at smu ( with tech having better squad than now and smu having a weaker squad than now) the red raiders failed to cover in either case , winning by just 10 in 2002 and by 14 in 2004. returning just 5 to BOTH sides of the ball, they may need a game or two. just thought the value was with smu.

if i lose the bet ... atleast you will win ... someone needs to beat the books !

 

[Aztec4Life]

make some really good points. smu is not oklahoma or tcu defensively. tech WILL be able to run the ball in my estimation. they are pretty huge upfront compared to smu.

willis was a freshman in his first start ever in that game vs tech ( a better tech defense than they sport his year i might add ). smu scored atleast 21 points in ALL of their final ten games last year as willis improved. return 8 starters on offense and i would expect him to be even better this year ( of course i thought sewell would be improved for virginia too and we all saw how that turned out). it's not like i would be shocked to see texas tech smoke a team.. they like to do that and leach has no qualms about running it up , so there is that too. harrell is a good qb and maybe he finally won over his teammates ( rumors of his being disliked by the team since he arrived at tech) in that bowl second half trouncing they put on last year.

i just cant trust this tech team to crush smu on the road. this is the worst tech team in the last 5 years in my estimation ( though they arent a bad team ). the last two times that tech played at smu ( with tech having better squad than now and smu having a weaker squad than now) the red raiders failed to cover in either case , winning by just 10 in 2002 and by 14 in 2004. returning just 5 to BOTH sides of the ball, they may need a game or two. just thought the value was with smu.

if i lose the bet ... atleast you will win ... someone needs to beat the books !

SMU's schedule last season...

<TABLE border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left>Nov 25, 2006 </TD><TD align=left>Houston, Texas </TD><TD align=left>RICE 31, SMU 27 </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left>Nov 18, 2006 </TD><TD align=left>Dallas, Texas </TD><TD align=left>SMU 34, Tulsa 24 </TD><TD align=right>Box score </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left>Nov 11, 2006 </TD><TD align=left>Dallas, Texas </TD><TD align=left>Houston 37, SMU 27 </TD><TD align=right>Box score </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left>Oct 31, 2006 </TD><TD align=left>Dallas, Texas </TD><TD align=left>SMU 22, UAB 9 </TD><TD align=right>Box score </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left>Oct 21, 2006 </TD><TD align=left>Greenville, N.C. </TD><TD align=left>East Carolina 38, SMU 21 </TD><TD align=right>Box score </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left>Oct 14, 2006 </TD><TD align=left>Dallas, Texas </TD><TD align=left>SMU 31, Marshall 21 </TD><TD align=right>Box score </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left>Oct 07, 2006 </TD><TD align=left>El Paso, Texas </TD><TD align=left>UTEP 24, SMU 21 </TD><TD align=right>Box score </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left>Sep 30, 2006 </TD><TD align=left>New Orleans, La. </TD><TD align=left>SMU 33, Tulane Green Wave 28 </TD><TD align=right>Box score </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left>Sep 23, 2006 </TD><TD align=left>Dallas, Texas </TD><TD align=left>SMU 55, Arkansas State 9 </TD><TD align=right>Box score </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left>Sep 16, 2006 </TD><TD align=left>Dallas, Texas </TD><TD align=left>SMU 45, Sam Houston State 14 </TD><TD align=right>Box score </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left>Sep 09, 2006 </TD><TD align=left>Denton, Texas </TD><TD align=left>NT 24, SMU 6 </TD><TD align=right>Box score </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=left>Sep 02, 2006 </TD><TD align=left>Lubbock, Texas </TD><TD align=left>Texas Tech 35, SMU 3 </TD><TD align=right>Box score </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

When you play teams like Rice, UAB, East Carolina, Marshall, Tulane, Arky State, and Sam Houston State, it can't be THAT tough to score 21 points every game. Compare that to Tech's, and it's laughable. Not to mention SMU's home schedule was quite soft last season, giving some the impression that they are extremely tough at home.

Having said all that, SMU's big running back does worry me. The question is, how will the SMU O-Line hold up?

 

[RetroVK]

When you play teams like Rice, UAB, East Carolina, Marshall, Tulane, Arky State, and Sam Houston State, it can't be THAT tough to score 21 points every game.
can agree with this statement for the most part. they did average considerably more than 21 though. texas tech obviously plays tougher competition but also keep in mind how down the big 12 was last year. by no means am i saying that conf usa is even close to big 12 ... just saying take some of their results witha grain of salt too. ill be the guy in the fetal position in the back corner when this thing is 31 - 10 red raiders at halftime.

 

[ynnhoj316]

guys,

thanks for the input. although we did lose players, word here in lubbock is that our recruiting and whatnot have been better than what we have had in the past, thus creating a better future.. well the future is here. Coach Leach was asked the question about how it will hurt losing seniors and he responded with something like "who said that those guys (the ones who left) are better than these guys we have now?" take it for what you will, that coach leach is a clown.

im dumping 5 units, one of the biggest bets ever in my 6 years of handicapping sports. i see a large gap in talent thats hard to overlook. i will be at the bar here in lubbock tomorrow starting around 12 or 1 watching the red raiders beat those ponies.

GL TO ALL

 

[CincyWillie]

TTU is down to an 8 [-110] @ The Greek

 

[chopz33]

Partly cloudy with a light chance of Thunderstorms. High of 87. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 30%

 

[hile75]

over gonna hit, i hope TT score 56 for ya, bol today

 

[B.A.R.]

Partly cloudy with a light chance of Thunderstorms. High of 87. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 30%

barometric pressure perhaps?

 

[brewer]

reverse line movement is overrated imo. i use to buy into this crap. i dont anymore. i make my own lines and bet em if they're off from what vegas puts out.

gl tonight

 

[B.A.R.]

reverse line movement is overrated imo. i use to buy into this crap. i dont anymore. i make my own lines and bet em if they're off from what vegas puts out.

gl tonight

Use it as a tool to help capping. Typically in niffel and ncaa the faders and reverse movement guys get beat up first few weeks and "squares" or whatever you wanna call em roll...

 

[Aztec4Life]

Use it as a tool to help capping. Typically in niffel and ncaa the faders and reverse movement guys get beat up first few weeks and "squares" or whatever you wanna call em roll...[/quote]

:cheers:

 

[RetroVK]

What we learned tonight.

1. texas tech schemes are too much for smu. not sure how many times you can give up a 5 yard slant in one game but i think the record was broken tonight.

2. mike leach is an asshole

3. the texas tech offensive line is much much better than i thought unless the smu dl is atrocious.

4. mike leach is a gaping dripping pussy

5. harrell has complete grasp of texas tech offense and is able to make all the necessary throws within it.

6. mike leach shits weasels

7. texas tech and smu lack team speed

8. mike leach wants to get engaged to barney frank

9. mike leach is a turd burglar

10. smu players and coaches are wussies for not going at either a qb's knees of a kickers knees in the last 5 minutes of that game.

 

[reNew Orleans]

when SMU gets to CUSA play, Id say you have to consider over everytime. I saw them play tulane and their defense can't play a complete game and will slip up at some point.

 

[RetroVK]

ynn rj aztec bar .... all of you were dead on about this game and wish i had heeded the warning and gone for a middle. i was dead wrong. total domination and tech even played more inspired than smu which suprised me. thought smu would be up for this one.

 

[Timh]

Lol Vegas - Leach never will stop throwing will he....

 

[RetroVK]

nope. what is amazing with that here is that he has done it to bennett before and bennett went nuts over it. leach is the antithesis of what collegiate athletics should be about. he did coach bennett under the table in this one though. the guy can coach some offense. have to give him that.

 

[datboymike]

Yessssirr.... Raiderrrrrrrrrrrrr

 

[ynnhoj316]

When TTU is throwing up by 1,000 points, we are just running our offense. Hard to argue with that when you back TT. Thanks everyone good luck next week

 

[YourMomIsLovely]

I agree there. It's not like he left the starters in. He put in the backups and the backups should get a chance to run the offense as well. It's only fair.