Texas O/U 9 wins

[dmr76]

Just got the lines released for the O/U for Texas wins. It is at 9. I just don't see Texas finishing with more than 9 wins, with potential losses to the following teams:

Arkansas
Colorado
OU
Mizzou
TT
Kansas
Aggies

at -120 I am ready to put a good amount of money on it.

I went and undergrad and grad school at Texas and follow the program closely. I have many concerns about the team this year, including the following:

1. No proven playmakers - Limas, Finley and Charles are gone. Shipley and Quan are good but not gamebreakers. They have talented youngsters at WR, but that is not a guarantee. I would like to see Williams or Buckner step up, but I just don't know. Irby is a complete enigma at TE, and McGee is not a gamebreaker. I know that Fozzy has gotten plenty of praise, but will that translate to wins? Chiles is our most talented player, but will he see the field?

2. Colt McCoy - he is not the QB to lead us to the next level. I hate to sell him short, but I just don't see it.

3. DT depth - Miller and Houston, with Wilcoxon backing him up; after that there isn't much. Talent, yes, but experience, no.

4. Safety - we may be sarting two freshman at safety. While both are talented, the pass happy Big XII may prove too much.

5. Schedule - this is Mack's toughest year IMO. The schedule is absolutely brutal, with tough road games, three rival games, and plenty of question marks.


I know that Muschamp will have an impact. When I think about the team this year, I will likely favor fading Texas and playing the under.

I would appreciate some thoughts from you other Texas guys.

 

[O-State]

Interesting thoughts, thanks for those of us without the insight you possess of the Texas program.

-- the frosh safeties is big IMO. Safety, moreso than corner is vital to have experience and talent. The secondary is built on how good the safety play is.

I liked how Texas performed in the bowl to end the year because it was a dissapointing season and many people favored Arizona State. That was a program win, that they still are Texas.

That is why it will be hard to bet against them, especially with that momentum from last year because whenever you think there not that good they can come out and do that.

The Oklahoma game as well last year was a Texas showing.

---Starting Oct. 4th will be a tough gauntlet.
@ Colorado
Oklahoma
Missouri
Okie State
@ Texas Tech
Baylor
Kansas

7 VERY tough games in there. Okie State is going to be ALOT better this year. The Big XII is damn good this year.

I have Texas about where Steele has them. Around 3rd behind Oklahoma and Texas Tech. They could end up 2nd or 4th in the south behind Okie State as well.

 

[horses]

if they lose at home to this arkansas team, mack should be fired on the spot...

 

[O-State]

Do they count bowl wins for O/U season totals?

 

[dmr76]

Interesting thoughts, thanks for those of us without the insight you possess of the Texas program.

-- the frosh safeties is big IMO. Safety, moreso than corner is vital to have experience and talent. The secondary is built on how good the safety play is.

I liked how Texas performed in the bowl to end the year because it was a dissapointing season and many people favored Arizona State. That was a program win, that they still are Texas.

That is why it will be hard to bet against them, especially with that momentum from last year because whenever you think there not that good they can come out and do that.

The Oklahoma game as well last year was a Texas showing.

---Starting Oct. 4th will be a tough gauntlet.
@ Colorado
Oklahoma
Missouri
Okie State
@ Texas Tech
Baylor
Kansas

7 VERY tough games in there. Okie State is going to be ALOT better this year. The Big XII is damn good this year.

I have Texas about where Steele has them. Around 3rd behind Oklahoma and Texas Tech. They could end up 2nd or 4th in the south behind Okie State as well.

The bowl game is the biggest counter-argument to my post. The Holiday Bowl performance was one of Mack's best-coached games. The team came out motivated, was prepared, and played superb the whole game. If Mack can carry that over, it may very well be a good year for Texas. However, I believe that even if the Texas team that played the Holiday Bowl showed up for every game this year, they would still have a difficult time winning 9 games given the schedule.

 

[dmr76]

if they lose at home to this arkansas team, mack should be fired on the spot...

Can't disagree with that statement. However, it is Mack and it is Arkansas.

 

[dmr76]

Do they count bowl wins for O/U season totals?

The 9 wins is for regular season only, i.e., no Big XII Title Game or bowl game.

 

[RJ Esq]

If it is for regular season only, then I wouldn't touch that bet.

Texas will lose 2-3 games this year, most likely against Oklahoma, Mizzou, Kansas, or Texas Tech.

Arkansas? No fuckin way is Texas losing that one. That is a joke this year.

Aggy? Maybe, but probably not. Sherman is not a good coach, they are changing the offense, and Mack is red-assed after losing the last 2. Not this year and not in Austin.

 

[B.A.R.]

The bowl game is the biggest counter-argument to my post. The Holiday Bowl performance was one of Mack's best-coached games. The team came out motivated, was prepared, and played superb the whole game. If Mack can carry that over, it may very well be a good year for Texas. However, I believe that even if the Texas team that played the Holiday Bowl showed up for every game this year, they would still have a difficult time winning 9 games given the schedule.

Still shocked how prepeared they came..was a great effort by the staff to have them ready

 

[RetroVK]

Alright , lets look at this.

Very likely wins

Florida atlantic -- double digit favorite
at UTEP -- Double digit favorite
Arkansas -- double digit favorite
Rice-- Double digit favorite
Baylor -- double digit favorite
oklahoma state--over a td favorite, maybe dd
TAMU -- dd fav, double revenge rivalry home game.

likely wins

at colorado --good size favorite


Toss ups

missouri
at texas tech
at kansas

likely losses

oklahoma -- red river shootout.

very likely losses

none

This is a close one and i would say the line is pretty good. One concern would be that it has been a really long time since Texas didnt win 9 games or more in a season. No single injury will destroy the team either.

Could see this going either way but i would be mildly suprised if this team isn't 5-0 heading into dallas. Only 4 true away games, one of which is UTEP and they make a habit of winning at home (7 games this year ). You have to go back a long ways to find the years where they struggled at home.

Tough schedule in an improved league and there are definitely spots for slips but I think the posted line is pretty solid.

 

[B.A.R.]

If it is for regular season only, then I wouldn't touch that bet.

Texas will lose 2-3 games this year, most likely against Oklahoma, Mizzou, Kansas, or Texas Tech.

Arkansas? No fuckin way is Texas losing that one. That is a joke this year.

Aggy? Maybe, but probably not. Sherman is not a good coach, they are changing the offense, and Mack is red-assed after losing the last 2. Not this year and not in Austin.

Looking ahead..motivation..etc..wish game was earlier in year...but love the Horns in this spot.

 

[RJ Esq]

#35 - Texas vs Arkansas

by Todd on Jul 26, 2008 8:07 PM CDT in Football
<table align="center" width="500"><tbody><tr><td align="center">

</td><td align="center">Texas vs Arkansas
September 13, 2008
Texas Memorial Stadium
Austin, TX</td><td align="center">

</td></tr></tbody></table> Why?: It's a great BCS OOC matchup, and it's an old school rivalry that we don't get to see that much anymore now that Arkansas is in the SEC (the two teams have only played three times since Arkansas joined, once in the postseason).
Who do I think will win?: Texas in a landslide. The Hogs have won three of the last four, and the only loss was a close 20-22 loss in Fayetteville in '04 (that Arkansas team went only 5-6 that year while Texas went 11-1). With Petrino on the sidelines instead of Nutt, who is from Arkansas and played QB there, you have to wonder if this game really means as much for the team this year and if they'll be able to get up for it without someone to remind them of what the Texas game means. Since Arkansas lost too much talent (and is breaking in a completely new system) to really be competitive in Petrino's first year against the top tier teams, pure passion alone would have to go a long way for them to win and I don't see that happening either.
Who do I hope will win?: Toss up. On the one hand, S-E-C! S-E-C!, but on the other, Arkansas still seems like an outsider to me (you think I'd get over it, but they just don't feel right). I'll go with the Hogs though, since an upset win over Texas would make our beating them the next week (which, we better, or this season will suck) look even better.

 

[RetroVK]

Looking ahead..motivation..etc..wish game was earlier in year...but love the Horns in this spot.

Going to be hard to not be on this unless the line is just whacked or one of the two teams isn't anywhere near what i think they are.

 

[B.A.R.]

I miss the Big 8 ...lol

 

[RetroVK]

#35 - Texas vs Arkansas

by Todd on Jul 26, 2008 8:07 PM CDT in Football
<TABLE width=500 align=center><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle>

</TD><TD align=middle>Texas vs Arkansas
September 13, 2008
Texas Memorial Stadium
Austin, TX
</TD><TD align=middle>

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Why?: It's a great BCS OOC matchup, and it's an old school rivalry that we don't get to see that much anymore now that Arkansas is in the SEC (the two teams have only played three times since Arkansas joined, once in the postseason).
Who do I think will win?: Texas in a landslide. The Hogs have won three of the last four, and the only loss was a close 20-22 loss in Fayetteville in '04 (that Arkansas team went only 5-6 that year while Texas went 11-1). With Petrino on the sidelines instead of Nutt, who is from Arkansas and played QB there, you have to wonder if this game really means as much for the team this year and if they'll be able to get up for it without someone to remind them of what the Texas game means. Since Arkansas lost too much talent (and is breaking in a completely new system) to really be competitive in Petrino's first year against the top tier teams, pure passion alone would have to go a long way for them to win and I don't see that happening either.
Who do I hope will win?: Toss up. On the one hand, S-E-C! S-E-C!, but on the other, Arkansas still seems like an outsider to me (you think I'd get over it, but they just don't feel right). I'll go with the Hogs though, since an upset win over Texas would make our beating them the next week (which, we better, or this season will suck) look even better.

Third week of the year ... no way they are ready yet after western illinois and ulm. First real test for new systems and its in Austin. An arkansas win here would actually be pretty damn shocking.

 

[RetroVK]

Arkansas is home to bama the next week too to open petrinos SEC career. Texas hosts Rice.

 

[B.A.R.]

Third week of the year ... no way they are ready yet after western illinois and ulm. First real test for new systems and its in Austin. An arkansas win here would actually be pretty damn shocking.

won't be close at all...

 

[O-State]

The bowl game makes you wonder if a shift in focus and attitude took place because that was unbelievable energy. But also they lose 11 seniors who might of been behind it to save the season. I've learned not to look at the bowls too seriously. I have learned to listen to diehards of other programs because that is true inside information. Steele cannot tell us about the quality of the replacements outside of PS#.

I am going to assume they lose to OU and beat A&M due to revenge and that A&M should be down this year.
IMO

6 wins --- FAU, UTEP, Arkansas, Rice, Baylor, A&M
Dogfights --- @Colorado, Mizzou, Okie State, TT, @Kansas

Texas would need to win 4 of those 5 dogfight games to get over 9. I don't see that happening. More than likely 3 of 5, but who knows.

Maybe questionable to compare those 5 teams to Texas but I think that highly of the Big XII. And this is assuming Texas is in a down year.

 

[RetroVK]

The bowl game makes you wonder if a shift in focus and attitude took place because that was unbelievable energy. But also they lose 11 seniors who might of been behind it to save the season. I've learned not to look at the bowls too seriously. I have learned to listen to diehards of other programs because that is true inside information. Steele cannot tell us about the quality of the replacements outside of PS#.

I am going to assume they lose to OU and beat A&M due to revenge and that A&M should be down this year.
IMO

6 wins --- FAU, UTEP, Arkansas, Rice, Baylor, A&M
Dogfights --- @Colorado, Mizzou, Okie State, TT, @Kansas

Texas would need to win 4 of those 5 dogfight games to get over 9. I don't see that happening. More than likely 3 of 5, but who knows.

Maybe questionable to compare those 5 teams to Texas but I think that highly of the Big XII. And this is assuming Texas is in a down year.

Think you have it about right. The only thing that I would point out is the okie state game will be lined with a much larger spread than the other 4. Texas should be happy not to see kansas st this year. That team has given them fits lately.

 

[horses]

You have to go back a long ways to find the years where they struggled at home.

A long ways indeed!



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Texas​

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[horses]

By the way...how do you out-first down a team by 4 and lose by 63??!

 

[dmr76]

Alright , lets look at this.

Very likely wins

Florida atlantic -- double digit favorite
at UTEP -- Double digit favorite
Arkansas -- double digit favorite
Rice-- Double digit favorite
Baylor -- double digit favorite
oklahoma state--over a td favorite, maybe dd
TAMU -- dd fav, double revenge rivalry home game.

likely wins

at colorado --good size favorite


Toss ups

missouri
at texas tech
at kansas

likely losses

oklahoma -- red river shootout.

very likely losses

none

This is a close one and i would say the line is pretty good. One concern would be that it has been a really long time since Texas didnt win 9 games or more in a season. No single injury will destroy the team either.

Could see this going either way but i would be mildly suprised if this team isn't 5-0 heading into dallas. Only 4 true away games, one of which is UTEP and they make a habit of winning at home (7 games this year ). You have to go back a long ways to find the years where they struggled at home.

Tough schedule in an improved league and there are definitely spots for slips but I think the posted line is pretty solid.

Appreciate the input. I think that I have a less favorable view of Texas this year. I just don't think that they are as good as they have been in the past. I would put Arkansas in a likely win. I would put A&M and Ok. State as toss ups. Colorado is tough; that game is going to be a difficult spot for Texas - look ahead to OU and Hawkins is putting together some talent in Boulder. I think we win but it will be close. I would put Mizzou as a likely loss. Daniel will be salivating to play that game. He hates Texas after the dissed him and it will be his super bowl. Same with TT - Leach has Texas in his backyard with arguably his most talented team and Texas' least talented.

I think that we lose at a minimum 3 of the 4 games between OU, Mizzou, TT and KU. We lose 1 to 2 more games that we arguably should win on paper but we find a way to blow - OSU, A&M, CU. I hope I am wrong about the Texas team this year but I am not optimistic.

 

[RJ Esq]

You have to go back a long ways to find the years where they struggled at home.

A long ways indeed!



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UCLA​

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Date: 9/13/1997​

</td><td class="headertext" bgcolor="#ee7524" width="33%">

Texas​

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You had to bring up Route 66 didn't you. That's one of the key games that got Mackovic fired and brought Mack in.

We have a home and home coming up with UCLA and everyone wants revenge for this game.

 

[RetroVK]

Appreciate the input. I think that I have a less favorable view of Texas this year. I just don't think that they are as good as they have been in the past. I would put Arkansas in a likely win. I would put A&M and Ok. State as toss ups. Colorado is tough; that game is going to be a difficult spot for Texas - look ahead to OU and Hawkins is putting together some talent in Boulder. I think we win but it will be close. I would put Mizzou as a likely loss. Daniel will be salivating to play that game. He hates Texas after the dissed him and it will be his super bowl. Same with TT - Leach has Texas in his backyard with arguably his most talented team and Texas' least talented.

I think that we lose at a minimum 3 of the 4 games between OU, Mizzou, TT and KU. We lose 1 to 2 more games that we arguably should win on paper but we find a way to blow - OSU, A&M, CU. I hope I am wrong about the Texas team this year but I am not optimistic.

Texas is 8-1 last 9 vs tech ( south ) last texas tech win 2002
Texas is 9-0 last 9 vs okie st ( south ) last okie st win 1997
Texas is 6-0 last 6 vs kansas (north ) last kansas win i only went back so many years and didn't find one
Texas is 5-1 last 6 vs colorado ( north ) Last CU win 2001
Texas is 6-3 last 9 vs TAMU ( south ) Last TAMU win 2007
Texas is 5-1 last 6 vs missouri ( north ) Last mizz win 1997

Now this years versions of kansas and missouri and tech are much better than average but Texas should also be in just about every cappers top 15. Lots of history to buck.

Not saying it's a bad bet , just not sure it is a great one. I will call for a 9-3 year.

I played arizona st in the bowl game last year. Despite the relative of Mac Brown fielding fumbles , i still managed to get pummeled. It was the best first quarter that texas played all year and maybe best game as well. Did not see how Texas could get up for that game. They proved me wrong.

Some thoughts on Colt McCoy. I noticed last year and have noticed again during the offseason that a lot of longhorn fans are low on this kid. For the life of me i cant figure it out. Last year I was lucky enough to actually go to the Red River Shootout at the state fair. During the course of that game the fans in the area were frequently requesting that McCoy be taken out. Negative comments all over the place. As someone who follows the program closely but lives in Vegas away from orangeblood nation, this was shocking. They all want Chiles. McCoy was 19 of 26 for 324 yards 2 td and 1 int ( as i recall the int went off the receivers hands and popped up into the air ). I realize that texas fans miss the read option and with mcCoys skill set and concussion history it has been a different offense than the VY championship days.... but am at a loss for the McCoy hate. I guess the OU game was the game immediately following his 4 int performance vs kansas st , so there might have been a "what have you done for me lately mentality there". Just cannot figure out the disdain for him from his own fan base.

 

[dmr76]

Some thoughts on Colt McCoy. I noticed last year and have noticed again during the offseason that a lot of longhorn fans are low on this kid. For the life of me i cant figure it out. Last year I was lucky enough to actually go to the Red River Shootout at the state fair. During the course of that game the fans in the area were frequently requesting that McCoy be taken out. Negative comments all over the place. As someone who follows the program closely but lives in Vegas away from orangeblood nation, this was shocking. They all want Chiles. McCoy was 19 of 26 for 324 yards 2 td and 1 int ( as i recall the int went off the receivers hands and popped up into the air ). I realize that texas fans miss the read option and with mcCoys skill set and concussion history it has been a different offense than the VY championship days.... but am at a loss for the McCoy hate. I guess the OU game was the game immediately following his 4 int performance vs kansas st , so there might have been a "what have you done for me lately mentality there". Just cannot figure out the disdain for him from his own fan base.

Just to clarify, I don't have disdain for the kid at all. I know him personally and spoke with him last Saturday about the summer, expectations and such. I don't think Chiles is a better option. For better or worse, McCoy is the starting QB for the next two years. He is a great kid and I hope that he has a great year, I just don't think he is a QB who will lead UT to the promised land.

 

[SHSUHorn]

The key to Texas this year will be the OL play. A former Texas player now in the NFL told me early last year Mccoy didn't trust the OL at all.

He couldn't get his feet set and he bailed on the pocket way to early and often. With the entire two deep returning from the Holiday Bowl I expect huge improvements.

The impact of adding Muschamp and Applewhite to the coaching staff are enormous.

Muschamp is going to play alot of 4-2-5 vs the new spread offenses every team in the Big 12 seems to be going to. Muschamp its rumored also wanted autonomy of the entire defense when interviewing for the job.

Its no secret a birdie whispered in his ear that Mack likes to meddle and coddle his players particularly the upperclassmen. Chizik left early because he couldn't take it and MacDuff also is rumored to have wanted to play the younger LBs over the SR starters as well.

Losing to less talented A&M team for the second year in a row seems to have lit a fire under Brown's ass.

Texas graduated some dead weight on the defensive side of the ball. 7 starters on defense graduated and none were drafted except one in the 5th round. 2 other starters on that defense Bobino and Palmer who were JRs probably won't get drafted either.

The defense is young but more talented then last year and it helps when you have arguably the best DC in the country taking over.

I see Texas losing 2-3 games next year.

Probably OU and TT. Mizzu and Kansas had nice years last year but they still arn't in the same class as Texas and OU. Texas won't lose to A&M for a third year in a row in Austin, and the Texas coaching staff has circled the game vs CU due to the heated recruitment of Darrell Scott in February.